ENSO Analysis: 2015/16 Europe Winter Has 78% Chance Of Being Normal Or Colder Than Normal!

There’s been a lot of talk in the Internet about this year’s coming winter with some sites warning it could be the coldest in 50 years, or extremely too warm. Predictions, predictably, have been all across the board.

Last week German weather site donnerwetter.de here jumped into the fray and presented its 2015/16 winter outlook for Germany: likely colder than normal. The site writes.

At first glance the El Niño weather phenomenon has no influence on winter weather in Germany. The weather data on this are just too ambiguous.

With one up-close study of the various climate conditions during an El Niño, two patterns appear, which however are indeed connected to the conditions in Europe.

According to Professor Jin-Yi Yu of the Department of Earth System Science of the University of California at Irvine, under a central El Niño we have to expect colder weather conditions due to blocking highs in Europe during the winter. The probability of westerly-wind-dominated winters tends to be minimal. There is a 78% probability of a normal or colder than normal winter. This was the case in the years 1995/1996 and 2009/2010.”

Here Professor Jin-Yi Yu is referring to one of two types of El Ninos, which he describes here.

It has to be pointed out that conditions this year are different than during past El Niños. Foremost the Northeast Pacific now has uncharacteristically high sea surface temperatures and no one here is sure what impact this will have. Joe Bastardi often points out that such warm regions of water lead to the formation of troughs and ridges in other areas which play a powerful role in setting up seasonal weather patterns. Also ther North Atlantic is very cold.

Donnerwetter also presents its forecast for the winter for each 10-day period in the form of a chart. Here I have very serious doubts that temperature and precipitation can be predicted down to such an accuracy. For example in the middle third of February, Donnerwetter forecasts temperatures to be 2°C colder than normal. Though the site provides good 7-day forecasts, I certainly wouldn’t use their winter forecast chart as any guidance for anything.


11 responses to “ENSO Analysis: 2015/16 Europe Winter Has 7811 Chance Of Being Normal Or Colder Than Normal!”

  1. sod

    The rest of the globe is incredibly hot. Why this focus on a few cooler spots?

    1. DirkH
      1. David Appell

        This is from the leader of the RSS group:

        “The plot shows that the measured temperature rise is within the envelope of model predictions up until the late 2000’s. After that time, observed temperatures are sometimes less than any model prediction, and are clearly different than the mainstream model behavior. This slow-down in the warming, often called the “warming hiatus”, has become a major research topic over the last several years, and a source of much controversy across the blogosphere. In this post, I offer my view on the cause of the hiatus. Some of the following discussion is distilled from a moderated debate I took part in under the auspices of the Climate Dialogue website

        “Does this slow-down in the warming mean that the idea of anthropogenic global warming is no longer valid? The short answer is ‘no’. The denialists like to assume that the cause for the model/observation discrepancy is some kind of problem with the fundamental model physics, and they pooh-pooh any other sort of explanation. This leads them to conclude, very likely erroneously, that the long-term sensitivity of the climate is much less than is currently thought.

        “The truth is that there are lots of causes besides errors in the fundamental model physics that could lead to the model/observation discrepancy. I summarize a number of these possible causes below. Without convincing evidence of model physics flaws (and I haven’t seen any), I would say that the possible causes described below need to be investigated and ruled out before we can pin the blame on fundamental modelling errors.”

        — Carl Mears, Sept 2014

        1. DirkH

          Hey, David still carrying water for the silliest scientific fraud in history?

    2. mwhite

      If you wish to don your budgie smugglers and show us how hot it is in Alaska


      Be my guest

    3. sod

      we have an el nino year. Those are hot. are you trying to deny it?

      It is a problem of RSS, if it does not show that!

      1. DirkH

        Because this is the magical El Nino that cannot be seen from space, as opposed to all earlier El Ninos.

        Are you losing your tiny mind?

        1. sod

          we will see the el nino in the data next year. The question is, how strong the signal will be, after all the changes to the RSS and UAH record.

  2. Goblob

    I would have thought the plural of El Niño would be Los Niños.

  3. John F. Hultquist

    I wondered about the definition of incredibly hot, so did a search. There was no response. I think this is not a term regularly used by meteorologists. Then I noticed the browser claimed it blocked 3,314,052 sites. This might be the thing ‘sod’ is writing about. How do I find out?

  4. David Appell

    “ENSO Analysis: 2015/16 Europe Winter Has 78% Chance Of Being Normal Or Colder Than Normal!”

    What are the error bars on this number?

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