Germany October 2015 Almost 2°C Below Climate Model Projections! …0.8°C Colder Than 1981 – 2010 Mean

Germany’s DWD national weather service now presents the preliminary weather results for October 2015 in Germany, a region that finds itself in the middle of Europe.

Like September, also October is coming in cooler than normal, i.e. no sign of climate change. The real fact of the matter is that if it weren’t for all the multibillion-dollar funded hype in the media, nobody would even know that there is any climate change going on. The DWD writes that October was “a bit too cool; a really typical October“.

Typical? Not really. We need to recall that “typical” is hardly what the models say we should be having now. According to the data recorded by Germany’s almost 2000 weather stations, the country’s mean temperature for October 2015 was only 8.4 °C, which is 0.6°C below than the 1961-1990 mean and 0.8°C below the 1981-2010 mean. Climate models on the other hand projected that today’s October mean temperature by now should be some 1.2°C warmer than the mean, i.e. near 10.2°C. That means that October 2015 was in fact close to 2°C below what was expected by models.

It really is now time to start comparing measured observed temperatures to the modeled projections, and not to the mean of some arbitrarily chosen reference period. Obviously October’s observed difference is gaping and the failure of the models is becoming ever more glaring with each passing year.

Along with the cold temperatures, October 2015 in the Vaterland also brought with it snow – down to the flatlands. Moreover the town of Treuen, northeast of Plauen, saw 12 cm of the white stuff. The coldest temperature recorded was -7.5°C at Deutschneudorf-Brüderwiese.

On the 14th of October in the city of Gera the temperature did not even climb above +1°C. The DWD writes that “on this day almost all of the state of Thuringia disappeared under a blanket of snow, where at Weimar-Schöndorf the greatest snow depth of 8 cm was reached”.

Overall in Germany October was the 9th driest on record, and it was 11 percent less sunny than normal. How does this compare to the models? They projected wet and mild falls and winters, and so from a precipitation point of view here too the models are totally off. Well, at least they got the sunshine a little bit right.

Austria more than 1°C colder than model projections

Germany’s southeastern neighbor Austria also came in cooler …0.1°C below the “long-term average”, so reports the Austrian ZAMG national weather service. That means Austria was more than 1°C colder than what the models projected we should have for this time. Strangely the ZAMG writes that since 2000, 124 months were warmer than normal and 66 were too cool. How these months are distributed over the period and what the trend has been since 2000 gets no mention at all. Hmmm. Are they hiding something? Well, at least the DWD’s new website no longer carries the graphic of rising temperatures.

Unlike Germany, Austria saw a very wet and gray month. The ZAMG writes that “it was wetter than average (40 percent more precipitation) and gray (15 precent less sunshine hours)“.

11 responses to “Germany October 2015 Almost 2°C Below Climate Model Projections! …0.8°C Colder Than 1981 – 2010 Mean”

  1. Boyfromtottenham

    Hi from Oz. I find it interesting that the article says “…cooler than normal, i.e. no sign of climate change”. So does the author use the phrase “climate change” when he really means “global warming”? If so, why not say “global cooling” when temperatures are falling below seasonal averages? Otherwise it seems that the CAGW propaganda is working!

    1. DirkH

      I guess you can fight redefinitions by the powers that be til your blue in the face. The IPCC always had the mission of convincing everyone that it’s warming and its our fault. Yet they had the “CC” in the name from the start.

  2. Flashback 2012 maakt ons blij nu er absoluut geen sneeuw in zicht is | | Wintersportweerman

    […] sluit in Nederland iets van 0,7ºC te koud af. Pierre Gosselin legt hierrr overtuigend uit dat je natuurlijk eigenlijk niet zou moeten vergelijken met 1980-2010 maar met wat […]

  3. richard verney

    Southern Spain had a cold September, and apart from about 6 or 7 days in October, October has been colder than ‘usual’.

    Also the UK has 9apart from the odd day here and there) been cooler than ‘usual’ this September and October.

    So it would appear that much of Europe has had the same experience as Germany. In fact winters appear to be cooling in the Northern Hemisphere if CET is anything to go by, since CET shows a drop of about 1degC in the winter period (December to February) since 2000.

  4. Germany October 2015 Almost 2°C Below Climate Model Projections! …0.8°C Colder Than 1981 – 2010 Mean | wchildblog

    […] From NoTricksZone, by P Gosselin, Oct 2015 […]

  5. Oliver K. Manuel

    : Men are apt to settle a question rightly when it is discussed freely.

    Thus, the AGW debate will be settled quickly and rightly if ResearchGate continues to encourage open discussion of issues that are now verboten in the mainstream media .

    That is why the following question was posted on ResearchGate tonight: “Does the Sun’s pulsar core induce homo-chirality in the molecules of life and climate change in the planets that orbit it ?”

    I encourage feedback here or on ResearchGate.

  6. David Appell

    Wow!!!!! One month in ONE country was below average?

    No one ever expected THAT, did they?????

    Stop the presses. Now.

    1. mwhite

      Yep. A bit like Heathrow at the beginning of July.

  7. David Appell

    2) Posting this kind of junk makes you look desperate.

    1. Kurt in Switzerland


      If it’s “desperate” for Pierre to point out that October (& September) in Germany (also in Switzerland, btw*) were notably cooler than the 30 y means, what does this say about loud claims that 2014 was the “warmest ever!”, without pointing out inconvenient caveats such as accuracy / data tolerance and/or that satellite readings for the lower troposphere do NOT show a record?

      For that matter, strangely, no comparisons were given between actual measured data and model projections in such dangerous-sounding proclamations by the climate elite about warm years or warm months. I wonder why…

      Who’s desperate?

      *do your homework next time.

      What if several other countries in Europe had a comparatively cool Autumn? I suppose you’d put it down to natural oscillation. But when warm anomalies occur, they couldn’t possibly be due to natural oscillation, could they?

      / sarc off

  8. Kurt in Switzerland

    October in Switzerland was also colder than the 1981-2010 baseline:

    0.6 deg. C cooler, to be precise.

    Following a cold September, this looks like a possible indication of a cold Winter half year. But can you imagine the collective media excitement if the anomalies had been positive instead of negative?

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