Sudden Arctic Stratospheric Warming Event Could Mean The Worst Of Europe’s Winter May Still Be Ahead!

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At German climate and weather site wobleibtdieerderwaerumund.de here, author “Schneefan” writes about the Arctic stratosphere and potential polar vortices blasting into Europe before winter makes an exit.

He writes that models had calculated a warming of the stratosphere over parts of the Arctic, and this is now indeed taking place. And that warming has been strong and rapid. What does such an upper atmosphere warming mean? Schneefan writes it leads to a disturbed polar circulation, which leads us “to expect additional cold surprises over the earth’s northern hemisphere“.

GFS-Analyse der Temperaturen der untern Stratosphäre in rund 16 km Höhe (100 hPa). Über Kanada hat sich die Luft stark erwärmt, wie die roten/braunen Farben zeigen. Quelle:

GFS analysis of temperatures in the lower stratosphere at 16 km altitude (100 hPa). Over Canada the air has warmed strongly. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/mct.

Moreover at the upper stratosphere at about 30 km elevation (10 hPa) the rash warming has been interrupted, as the following chart depicts:

NOAA/CPC-Analyse der Temperatuen in der oberen Stratosphäre in 10 hPa (rund 30 km Höhe). Nach einer raschen Erwärmung erfolgt aktuell eine ebenso rasche Abkühlung (DOY=Day Of Year). Quelle:

NOAA/CPC analysis of temperatures over the Arctic (90N – 65 N) in the upper stratosphere at 10 hPa (approx. 30 km altitude).  DOY=Day Of Year. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/.

The interrupted upper stratosphere warming eventually led to the interruption working its way down to the lower stratosphere 18 km altitude (70 hPa) just a bit later:

NOAA/CPC-Analyse der Temperatuen in der unteren Stratosphäre in 70 hPa (rund 18 km Höhe). Nach einer raschen Erwärmung erfolgt aktuell eine Abkühlung (DOY=Day Of Year). Quelle:

NOAA/CPC analysis of temperatures in the lower stratosphere at 70 hPa (about 18 km altitude). After a minor warming  cooling has since taken over(DOY=Day Of Year). Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/.

This warming of the stratosphere over the Arctic leads to a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), Schneefan writes, which in turn leads to polar vortices plowing down into the middle latitudes, as was the case in mid January, 2016.

NOAA-Prognose (rote Linien in der oberen Grafik) für die Arktische Oszillation (AO) vom 4.1.2016 für die kommenden zwei Wochen. Die schwarze Linie stellt die gemessenen Werte dar. Die Prognose zeigt im Februar 2016 einen Absturz der AO-Werte in den negativen Bereich, was auf einen stark gestörten arktischen Polarwirbel hindeutet. Quelle:

NOAA prognosis (red line in the upper chart) for the Arctic Oscillation (AO) dated February 5, 2016, for the upcoming two weeks. The black line shows a drop into the negative range in mid February – down to -2, That would mean a strong polar vortex. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml.

Yet the prognosis for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – contrary to the the (cold) values seen in January – remains slightly in the positive range, which would point to mild weather just ahead for Western and Central Europe:

NOAA-Prognose fpr die Nordatlantische Oszillation (NAO) vom 5.2.2016 für die kommenden zweo Wochen. Die Werte beliben im positiven Bereich, was für West- und Mitteleuropa eine anhlatende Westdrift und damit mildere Temperaturen bedeuteten würde. Quelle:

NOAA prognosis for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from February 5, 2016, for the upcoming 2 weeks. The values are expected to remain in the positive range, which would mean mild westerly winds persisting. Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/shtml.

However stratospheric prognoses point to a continued tendency toward a major warming/SSW) already in just a few days, which would mean that in 3 to 10 days colder weather for Western and Central Europe:

ECMWF-Prognose für Druck (Geopotential) und Temperatur der oberen Stratatosphäre in 10 hPa (rund 30 km Höhe) vom 23.1. für den 1.2.2016. Mit Kern über Ost-Sibirien hat sich warme Luft mit hohem Druck entwickelt und den kalten Polarwirbel in Richtung Nordatlantik mit Kern östlich von Grönland abgedrängt. Die Temperaturdifferenz zwischen dem 90. und dem 60. Breitengrad ist von derzeit - 17°C auf +41°C stark angestiegen. Quelle:

ECMWF prognosis of 5 February 2016 for pressure and temperature of the upper stratosphere 10 hPa (approx. 30 km elevation) for 8 February 2016. The cold polar vortex is positioned over eastern Greenland.  The cold pole of the northern hemisphere is over Scotland (C=Cold). The cold pole is set to shift over Europe. Source: www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produktehtml.

Such major warmings of the stratosphere last happened in 2012 and 2013 – in January, after which a very cold February followed in 2012, and an historically severe cold March gripped Europe in 2013 respectively.

Eisiger Februar 2012 in Europa. Quelle: wie vor

Cold February of 2012. Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/.

 

Eisiger Jahrhundert-März 2013 in Europa. Quelle: wie vor

Historic cold March of 2013. Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/.

So, Schneefan writes, Europeans should not be writing off the winter just yet, as many meteorologists seem to have been doing over the past week or so. Weather is always a big bag filled with surprises. Things can go from mild to brutally cold awfully quickly.

 

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16 responses to “Sudden Arctic Stratospheric Warming Event Could Mean The Worst Of Europe’s Winter May Still Be Ahead!”

  1. Amy M.

    QUESTION: COULD THIS “SUDDEN ARCTIC STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT” BE HAARP BEING USED AND/OR TURNED UP BY OUR GOVERNMENT? PEOPLE IN THE MILITARY HAVE TOLD ME OFF THE RECORD THAT “IT”(HAARP)”DOES HAVE TO DO WITH A MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM, AMONG OTHER POSSIBLE AND PROBABLE USES SUCH AS WEATHER MODIFICATION”…THAT IS AS FAR AS THEY ARE WILLING TO GO…WHEN I QUESTION THEM FURTHER THEY SAY THEY HAD TO SIGN PAPERS SAYING THAT THEY WOULD NOT TALK ABOUT IT ANY MORE.
    INTERESTING IF THIS “EVENT” HAPPENS TO LINE UP RIGHT AROUND THE TIME THAT NORTH KOREA WAS DOING SOME BOMB OR MISSILE TESTING WHICH IT CERTAINLY HAS BEEN DOING RECENTLY…EXTREMELY RECENTLY IT WOULD SEEM, SINCE AN EMERGENCY COUNCIL HAS JUST BEEN CALLED BY THE U.N….
    *ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH HAARP(High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program)AND OTHER SIMILAR PROGRAMS DONE BY THE RUSSIANS FOR EXAMPLE? THIS “EVENT” IS LIKELY AN UN-INTENDED CONSEQUENCE OF USING THIS TECHNOLOGY…? I WOULD APPRECIATE GREATLY YOUR RESPONSE TO THIS QUESTION

    1. Mindert Eiting

      Moreover, we now have overwhelming evidence that HAARP is responsible for the serious design error, that on our type writing keyboards the Caps Lock is positioned at the shortest possible distance from the Shift.

      1. Jeff

        These “shiftless” folk give a whole new meaning to “capital punishment”…

        I always thought it strange when the World Economic Forum meets at Davos, somehow, some way, there is always snow (for the *cough* delegates to enjoy après conference).

        Now I guess, we know how, and why (or maybe not…).

        I think these folks should quit “haarp”ing on what might be, and spend their time, energy, and money focusing on what actually is, to wit, the CAGW fraud.

        I’m just hoping this cold snap (and associated snow, mush, slush, etc.) hit during the semester break. At least some folks can enjoy it rather than just endure it…..

        [I’d love to say “Go Niners” during this SuperBowl weekend, but the Niners haven’t gone anywhere in a long time. Anyway, have a good time, those who are following US football!] [And everyone else, too, of course.]

        1. yonason

          LOL to you and Mindert. One of my room mates in college used to make so many puns that after a while I started dreaming in them.

    2. Jeremy Poynton

      Oh dear. HAARP, whatever it may have been, was discontinued a while back. And please don’t shout. We can hear you loud and clear.

      1. DirkH

        USA, EU and Russia do have follow up facilities with energies up to 1 GW.
        I intentionally use the wikipedia here to get official info:
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Frequency_Active_Auroral_Research_Program#Related_facilities

        And 1 GW is quite a bummer. So. What ARE they doing?

        1. yonason

          “What are they doing?”
          https://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2015/11/14/a-long-musical-search/
          But remember, you didn’t hear it from me.

        2. yonason

          “…with energies up to 1 GW…”

          Solar coronal mass ejections can deposit up to 100 GW in the upper atmosphere, causing some communications disruption and resulting in a light show up North.

          Here’s a good overview of the program that lasted but 7 years.
          http://www.popsci.com/military-aviation-space/article/2008-06/militarys-mystery-machine
          Pretty expendable for something allegedly so powerful.

          If someone wants a conspiracy theory, how about – they had to shut it down because it was on the verge of disproving AGW?

          According to your Wiki ref, HAARP was the follow on facility for HIPAS, which closed the year HAARP was opened. It doesn’t mention any others. As to EU and Russia, if the military doesn’t care, it’s probably (hopefully) not a problem (as with nuke sub communication, which is what I thought was one of HAARP’s uses).

    3. David Johnson

      I think you need help

  2. Je krijgt een beetje een Galtür 1999 gevoel in nu begonnen sneeuwfase | | Wintersportweerman

    […] Hierrr nog een actueel artikel waarin wordt uitgelegd dat de enige tijd geleden berekende SSW exact op dit moment aan het optreden is en dat dit nog altijd kan betekenen dat de winter in februari en maart hardnekkig gaat zijn. Ik hoop in elk geval dat dat voor de Wintersport-Arena Sauerland gaat betekenen dat er een schitterend naseizoen komt zoals in 2013 toen er begin mei nog geskied kon worden! En ook in 2012 was een SSW de aanzet tot onze bitterkoude korte februariwinter. Fréderic heeft onlangs eens uitgelegd dat hij deze keer minder kansen ziet. Ik ga ook nog nergens vanuit, maar acht enig vuurwerk aan het einde van de maand niet onmogelijk. Fijne zondag. […]

  3. John F. Hultquist

    At the Iqaluit Airport (3:00 PM EST Sunday 7 February) the temperature is -30°C. (-22°F.). That’s not as cold as I’ve ever been, but it is cold enough to be serious..
    The jet stream is headed directly south via Winnipeg and on to New Orleans and the Gulf of Mexico. Memphis is looking for -4.4°C. (24°F.) Tuesday night. That is at the same Latitude as Crete.
    As the loops of the Jet Stream meander around Earth other places will be treated to the cold air.
    One doesn’t need a conspiracy theory to explain temperature changes that have been happening for thousands of years. Uff da.

  4. yonason

    No temp so cold they can’t give it the appearance of warming.
    https://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2015/10/31/rose-tinted-temperatures/

  5. Climato-réalistes:bulletin d’informations N°17 :: RESILIENCETV

    […] Gosselin rapporte dans un article de notrickszone.com du 06 février que selon le site météorologique allemand wobleibtdieerderwaerumund.de il se produit […]

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