UPDATE: Joe Bastardi also weighs in on March forecast weather here.
Schneefan at the German skeptic site wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de here looks at March weather this year in Europe. Although Europeans have seen a warm winter, the meteorological spring has started out on the bitter cold side and forecasts are showing it could get much worse.
In Central Europe (Germany) snow has been falling down to the flatlands and the cold is expected to stick around – and possibly intensify.
Schneefan writes a massive snowstorm has brought the heaviest snowfall in March in 50 years to the Russian capital city of Moscow, paralyzing the city. The reason was storm low “Zissie”, which also brought the southern and eastern parts of Germany heavy snowfalls.
As of March 4, 2016, a large area of snowfall covered the western part of Germany, bringing snow to the lowlands and traffic disruptions at the higher elevations:
Radar image showing snowfall over western part of Germany. Source: www.niederschlagsradar.de/schneeradar.aspx
Meanwhile low “Bianca” shown below centered over England has moved over Germany and will start to bring in cold air by Sunday:
Source: www.unwetterzentrale.de/lagebericht.html
An ECMWF analysis of the stratosphere shows a cold trough centered over Siberia extending southwards over Central Europe and into North Africa:
ECMWF analysis from March 2016, which is what was projected back in 22 February 2016. Source: www.geo.fu-berlin.fu.winterdiagnostics/html
March cold forecast to continue, possibly intensify
Schneefan, who seems to have a very good meteorological background, writes that the March 3 forecast wintry weather will continue because of a polar vortex cold trough extending foremost over Central Europe and an accompanying powerful blocking Atlantic high.
Source: www.geo.fu-berlin.fu.winterdiagnostics/html
Today the newest model forecast has been crunched out and it shows a cold trough extending well into Central and Eastern Europe even after mid March – thanks to a blocking high over Scandinavia and a low centered over western Russia:
Source: wetterzentrale.de, data from US GFS models.
That’s all it takes. Europeans will recall that the opposite pattern dominated late last year, giving Europe one of the mildest November-December periods on record.
It’s the patterns, stupid! It has nothing to do with global warming. Like local temperature is dominated by atmospheric patterns, global temperature is dominated by the oceanic patterns. It’s warm now globally because of an El Nino.
What follows is the GFS temperature forecast chart for 14 days out, March 19:
Source: www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html
Note that the GFS model forecasts nighttime temperatures to fall to as low as a staggering -29°C for March 19!
Of course forecasts this far out are fraught with much very real uncertainty, and so it is very likely that such cold readings will not be reached. Revisions come daily.
What follows are the forecast noontime temperatures for March 19, where we see widespread freezing:
Source: www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html
Schneefan summarizes by stating that there is even the possibility that the second half of March winding up colder than the first half.
Weather forecasts are indeed fickle, and so only time will tell if it really will get cold. Often times patterns flip unexpectedly and bring the opposite. Let’s hope it does. As mild as this winter has been, most agree that it has been long enough already. An icy March would be brutal and tough to take.
Personally I don’t think this forecast of very cold in mid March is going to materialize. Over the past years I’ve followed these GFS forecasts, and they can change drastically overnight. But in general it’s an interesting pattern in development that is fun to watch.
But, but the animations are so pretty! 😉
One has to wonder about how climate modellers claim increasing accuracy delivered by finer resolution models; when their related circulation models in meteorology have not gotten substantially better in the past 20 years.
“Note that the GFS model forecasts nighttime temperatures to fall to as low as a staggering -29°C for March 19!”
Hey that looks centered over Munich. That’s where I currently work (spending every second weekend in the North in Brunswick). That’ll be fun. Munchkins are not used to real cold. But I am. I guess they’ll all be calling in sick AGAIN.
At least they grow awesome radishes
http://www.rareseeds.com/munchener-bier-radi/
No Munchkins in that crop, and they can get a lot bigger than shown in that photo. A bit on the hot side, but not too much so. Very tasty as well.
PS – thanks for the link to noscript. It’s keeping my comp from crashing as much as it used to, as well as preventing lots of nuisance ads. Very nice.
I had a nice dish called Münchner Tellerfleisch (Munichian plate of meat, lit.), roasted oxen served with a radi preparation. Very hot, only topped by Russian mustard IMHO, with regards to mustardish hotness. Which is different than Chili hotness.
I agree. Mustard heat is a better choice with it than hot pepper, or even horseradish, as I’ve seen some recipes call for.
The American version would seem to be the New England Boiled Dinner. Also very tasty.
Oh, look at the time. I better start preparing my lunch. =)
I agree on the mustard rather than peppers, but Münchner Tellerfleisch mit frischem Kren (with fresh horseradish) was one of my favorites in Munich. Right after a Sunday brunch of Weißwürscht with mustard (unlike the Isarpreißn I somehow already knew how to eat it and didn’t embarrass myself the first time I did).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbIAlcjbUKQ
Here’s a recipe for you, then
http://dermutanderer.de/muenchner-tellerfleisch/
Funny. Isarpreißn, pay close attention.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJLC-kqfKqg
And what was with the catsup? The only thing I ever use catsup on is . . . um, . . . Come to think of it, I never use it.
That reminds me of that line from Spaceballs
https://www.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/4b29bd2e-90e9-4d1a-b6d2-0382e177af7b
Have taken a liking to Heinz Hot & Spicy ketchup. Based on Tabasco.
And that reminds me of my favorite culinary scenes.
First, in the Outback.
Mick: “How do you like your goanna? Medium? Well done?”
Sue: “You don’t really expect me to eat that?”
Mick: “Yeah, it’s great. Yeah, try some of these yams, try the grubs and the sugar ants. Just bite the end off, they’re really sweet. Black fellas love ’em.”
Sue: “What about you, aren’t you having any?”
Mick: “Me? Ah…well, you can live on it, but it tastes like shit.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ6EyoqFWQM
Later in New York.
Sue: “One dog, please. With chili, onions, sauerkraut, and some peppers. There you go.”
Mick: “You eat that?”
Sue: “Well, you know, you can live on it, but it tastes like shit.”
“Have taken a liking to Heinz Hot & Spicy ketchup. Based on Tabasco”. – Brian H
Yes, but that’s not the same as plain ketchup.
Have you ever tried This on meatloaf. Cocktail sauce (with horse radish) is also good, but not on boiled or roasted beef, IMO.
Luckily German supermarket chains have stocked up with this:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sriracha-Chilli-Sauce-Flying-Goose/dp/B003UO78FI
Remember the 2010 Moscow extreme heat wave? Killed about 50,000 people.
Cold kills many more.
From what I’ve seen, you’ve vastly inflated the number of dead.
Also, remember that these are Russians, who don’t seem to realize that drinking and swimming don’t mix.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-heat-wave-vodka-deadly-mix-drowning/story?id=11170454
And, even when not swimming, one needs to remember to drink lots of water, NOT vodka. In a heat wave, or even if it’s just as hot as usual, that alone can save your life.
India (2003) – 1300 dead with temperatures reaching 122 Deg F.
Russia (2010) – 15,000 dead with temperatures reaching 99 Deg F.
I have personally survived extended temps in the very upper 90’s in MA, and a summer in MD were it got over 100 entirely too often. And I did it WITHOUT A.C.!
So, what makes Russia different? I would argue that it’s not just the Temperature. And here’s the PROOF.
More bollocks from Appell http://www.wwfblogs.org/climate/content/great-russian-heat-wave-2010-caused-11000-deaths-moscow-alone
I know it’s complicated because weather is not always climate. I don’t have time this morning to consult chicken entrails. Can you spare a chicken and let us know what kind of weather this is, David?
He can have mine. I seem to have lost my appetite. and besides, I can’t find my Chinese chicken entrails dictionary.
The Spanish Flu killed in 1918 around 75 million people. It’s your turn.
In the United States alone, nearly 300 million turkeys are killed yearly for meat
https://kpbs.media.clients.ellingtoncms.com/img/photos/2012/08/08/julia_turkey_tx800.jpg?aae402d4163f394116c3dd6e602f75
Pass.
I am sorry, but i am staring in utter disbelieve at this repetition of false claims about cold and snow.
I was in Freudenstadt yesterday, about as snowy as the black forest (apart from some peaks) gets. Possibly influenced by the constant talk about snow and cold (and a weather report that spoke of snowfalls there) I even thought of bringing a sledge along to our trip to the swimming pool.
But snow was measured in millimeters there and there were specks of brwon and green everywhere. We also arrived in slight rain, no chance for any sort of winter sports at all.
So what “trick” allows this constant talk about cold and snowfall, in complete contradiction of reality?
There are two main techniques used:
1. First Trick is a simple focus on the most cold and snowy forecast, without any countercheck against other forecasts or reality. (thanks to Pierre for making at least a slight disclaimer in his comments).
2. The second trick is a constantly shifting focus on the oine cold place on the planet. Be it Iceland, Moscow, Ireland, the UK or wherever. Focus of these reports always is the single colder spot on the globe. The big picture, february was the hottest by far, even in the satellite record, gets completely lost.
Shhhh. Quiet down. They are auditioning for a part in the Ballet “Snow Queen.” Don’t disturb their concentration.
“I am sorry, but i am staring in utter disbelieve at this repetition of [allegedly] false claims about cold and snow.” – sod
Of course, if you want to make “false claims about [heat] and [drought],” he’s all ears.
But sod is right. Look at this video of a mid-January snowstorm in Allgäu:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAOLPYKbxh4
And February in Schwarzwald:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8z8-g18dSjU
And March in Allgäu again:
http://www.wetteronline.de/fotostrecken/2016-03-01-sm
First, I can see the green and brown right through the blizzard or where the tractor ploughed through the snow.
Second, the poor sod is like an inverse mythical doppelgänger of Al Gore. The Gore-negative “sod effect” strikes wherever he goes. Portly Al should hire him to go places and make speeches about global warming. We would never hear of Gore Effect, frost and snow again. There would be only sod, heat and drought.
sorry again, but i am not sure what you are trying to tell me?!?
This is the black forest and the Allgäu. Both places get tons of snow each year. What are those videos and fotos from places up to 1000 m high supposed to show? Allgäu is about as high as Germany gets.
There was very little snow and cold this year. That is a fact. It was a warm winter in comparison. Why are you trying to deny the facts? Strange!
“Allgäu is about as high as Germany gets.” – sod
Not doing so bad yourself, …man.
But, yeah, I so totally see your point.
_______________________________________________
Kempten (Allgaeu)
Elevation above sea level: 681 m = 2234 ft
Isny im Allgau
Elevation above sea level: 707 m = 2319 ft
Furtwangen im Schwarzwald
Elevation above sea level: 857 m = 2811 ft
Schonau im Schwarzwald
Elevation above sea level: 535 m = 1755 ft
Freudenstadt, Germany
Elevation: 716.8 m. 2352 ft
“Allgäu is about as high as Germany gets.” – sod
Not doing so bad yourself, …man.
But, yeah, I so totally see your point.
Kempten (Allgaeu)
Elevation above sea level: 681 m _ 2234 ft
Isny im Allgau
Elevation above sea level: 707 m _ 2319 ft
Furtwangen im Schwarzwald
Elevation above sea level: 857 m _ 2811 ft
Schonau im Schwarzwald
Elevation above sea level: 535 m _ 1755 ft
Freudenstadt, Germany
Elevation above sea level 716.8 m _ 2352 ft
I looked up the elevations above sea level for C.W.’s locations, and they are lower that your HappyTown, which was given to be 717 meters (the others ranging between 535 and 707). Something may be “high” there, but it may not be the locations, if ya catch my drift.
OK, I tried responding twice. They both may appear later, …or not. Most do, but not all. Guess I’ll leave it at that for now.
So, you want to team up Al Bore and sod? I’m thinking all you will get out of the deal is “wintry mix.”
I don’t know why I’m having so much trouble replying to this comment, but I looked up the elevations above sea level of your two locations and Freudenstadt, sod’s favorite mud wallow, and they are essentially the same. (his slightly higher, actually) But it won’t let me post. Maybe THIS one will make it?
“So what „trick“ allows this constant talk about cold and snowfall, in complete contradiction of reality?”
There was snowfall in Munich last week and today. And it’s cold. You say I’m hallucinating? I don’t trust you. I’ll keep wearing my Parka just in case.
Yes, we should focus on where that heat was….
nearly all the warm anomaly comes from a 3C anomaly in the eastern Russian WINTER.
Its NOT HEAT.. its still COLD… just not as cold as usual. And I bet the people up there are LOVIN’ IT
“Its NOT HEAT.. its still COLD… just not as cold as usual. And I bet the people up there are LOVIN‘ IT”
As i keep telling you in these topics, the people in the skiing resorts are hating it.
Your just switching to a different level of denial.
Obviously the claim that it is cold, was false. Now you shift first to the strange position that war winters are still cold (no, they are not! This kind of warming simply menas no/little snow at places that got plenty in the past). And final point is, warm is good anyway.
Oh the poor ski resorts.. ONE bad season or two..
Don’t PANIC or sob, there will be plenty of really good ones over the next 20-30 years !
Interesting that you think a rise for -10C to -4C makes it warm.
Head off to Siberia and see how you cope. !! 😉
Failing Siberia, there’s always Maine
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_oy2DMM6iwUU/SZTR53Nv0oI/AAAAAAAAAvg/MvTnSKCXmxI/s320/maine.car.2009-01-16_item001.jpg
Of course, when it’s too cold to safely leave your cabin, it doesn’t matter how good the snow is for skiing. Poor sod, he just can’t win!
One Thanksgiving I was in the White Mountains at a relative’s cabin. It was 17 deg F. And it wasn’t even winter yet.
It appears. It disappears. One day it’s there, and the next it’s gone. VAGABOND HEAT! – a thermodynamic mystery.
Severe Weather Events Throughout History
http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/climatehistory.pdf
[…] Der nicht nur in den USA bekannte Meteorologe Joe Bastardi befürchtet am 5. März 2016 in seinem Video einen heftigen Märzwinter vor allem in der zweiten Monatshälfte in Europa: http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-march-5-2016 (Thanks to P. Gosselin – Bitter Winter Ahead For Europe In March 2016? Moscow Sees Heaviest March Snowfall in 50 Years! […]
Hi, Pierre. there’s a new glitch. Never had this problem before, and since your website came back online, it’s happening with increasing frequency. My posts aren’t all being displayed. Some do appear later, but others never. I hope there’s a way of fixing it, because it’s really quite annoying.
Thanks.
UPDATE: Reality check. The cold weather did not show up.
We had 5 cm of snow yessterday, but an extremely sunny and warm afternoon, so basically all of it is gone again.
The weatherreport is clear: the “Warning, huuge extremes” are off the table. Temperatures will be slightly below average, it is not the most sunny start of a spring ever.
http://www.wetter.de/cms/der-wettertrend-vom-09-03-2016-2773716.html
Will there be some update to this post which will do an analysis of the real weather in comparison to the forecasts?
Weather forecasters predict the strongest snowfall for the end of the week. According to Russia’s meteorological service, such snowstorms occur in March once every 50 years.