UPDATE: Joe Bastardi also weighs in on March forecast weather here.
Schneefan at the German skeptic site wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de here looks at March weather this year in Europe. Although Europeans have seen a warm winter, the meteorological spring has started out on the bitter cold side and forecasts are showing it could get much worse.
In Central Europe (Germany) snow has been falling down to the flatlands and the cold is expected to stick around – and possibly intensify.
Schneefan writes a massive snowstorm has brought the heaviest snowfall in March in 50 years to the Russian capital city of Moscow, paralyzing the city. The reason was storm low “Zissie”, which also brought the southern and eastern parts of Germany heavy snowfalls.
As of March 4, 2016, a large area of snowfall covered the western part of Germany, bringing snow to the lowlands and traffic disruptions at the higher elevations:
Radar image showing snowfall over western part of Germany. Source: www.niederschlagsradar.de/schneeradar.aspx
Meanwhile low “Bianca” shown below centered over England has moved over Germany and will start to bring in cold air by Sunday:
An ECMWF analysis of the stratosphere shows a cold trough centered over Siberia extending southwards over Central Europe and into North Africa:
ECMWF analysis from March 2016, which is what was projected back in 22 February 2016. Source: www.geo.fu-berlin.fu.winterdiagnostics/html
March cold forecast to continue, possibly intensify
Schneefan, who seems to have a very good meteorological background, writes that the March 3 forecast wintry weather will continue because of a polar vortex cold trough extending foremost over Central Europe and an accompanying powerful blocking Atlantic high.
Today the newest model forecast has been crunched out and it shows a cold trough extending well into Central and Eastern Europe even after mid March – thanks to a blocking high over Scandinavia and a low centered over western Russia:
Source: wetterzentrale.de, data from US GFS models.
That’s all it takes. Europeans will recall that the opposite pattern dominated late last year, giving Europe one of the mildest November-December periods on record.
It’s the patterns, stupid! It has nothing to do with global warming. Like local temperature is dominated by atmospheric patterns, global temperature is dominated by the oceanic patterns. It’s warm now globally because of an El Nino.
What follows is the GFS temperature forecast chart for 14 days out, March 19:
Note that the GFS model forecasts nighttime temperatures to fall to as low as a staggering -29°C for March 19!
Of course forecasts this far out are fraught with much very real uncertainty, and so it is very likely that such cold readings will not be reached. Revisions come daily.
What follows are the forecast noontime temperatures for March 19, where we see widespread freezing:
Schneefan summarizes by stating that there is even the possibility that the second half of March winding up colder than the first half.
Weather forecasts are indeed fickle, and so only time will tell if it really will get cold. Often times patterns flip unexpectedly and bring the opposite. Let’s hope it does. As mild as this winter has been, most agree that it has been long enough already. An icy March would be brutal and tough to take.