Moscow Sees Heaviest March Snowfall in 50 Years …Bitter Winter Ahead For Europe In March 2016? … -29°C ?

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UPDATE: Joe Bastardi also weighs in on March forecast weather here.

Schneefan at the German skeptic site wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de here looks at March weather this year in Europe. Although Europeans have seen a warm winter, the meteorological spring has started out on the bitter cold side and forecasts are showing it could get much worse.

In Central Europe (Germany) snow has been falling down to the flatlands and the cold is expected to stick around – and possibly intensify.

Schneefan writes a massive snowstorm has brought the heaviest snowfall in March in 50 years to the Russian capital city of Moscow, paralyzing the city. The reason was storm low “Zissie”, which also brought the southern and eastern parts of Germany heavy snowfalls.

As of March 4, 2016, a large area of snowfall covered the western part of Germany, bringing snow to the lowlands and traffic disruptions at the higher elevations:

Das Schneeradar zeigt am 4. März 2016 nachmittags in der Westhölfte Deutschlands verbreiteten anhaltenden Schneefall bis ins Flachland. Quelle:

Radar image showing snowfall over western part of Germany. Source: www.niederschlagsradar.de/schneeradar.aspx

Meanwhile low “Bianca” shown below centered over England has moved over Germany and will start to bring in cold air by Sunday:

Am Freitag lenkt das neue Tief BIANCA mit Zentrum über Südengland die erste Front in Richtung Deutschland. An der Okklusion ist es nass, mit Südwestwind wird aber auch mildere Luft heran transportiert und die kalte Luft wird nach Norden verdrängt. Über den Alpen kommt Föhn auf. Am Samstag verlagert sich das Tief weiter nach Mitteleuropa. An der Vorderseite wird milde Luft in weite Teile Deutschlands geführt. An der Rückseite wird am Sonntag kühle Luft aus Nordeuropa angezapft. Quelle:

Source: www.unwetterzentrale.de/lagebericht.html

An ECMWF analysis of the stratosphere shows a cold trough centered over Siberia extending southwards over Central Europe and into North Africa:

ECMWF-Analyse vom 3. März 2016 für den arktischen Polarwirbel in 150 hPa (13000m). Der Polarwirbel ist stark gestört und hat drei Teilwirbel gebildet (Tripol). Ein mächtiger und weit nach Süden ausgreifender eisiger Trog reicht vom Eismeer über Nord- und Mitteleuropa bis nach Nordafrika: So sieht Winter aus!

ECMWF analysis from March 2016, which is what was projected back in 22 February 2016. Source: www.geo.fu-berlin.fu.winterdiagnostics/html

March cold forecast to continue, possibly intensify

Schneefan, who seems to have a very good meteorological background, writes that the March 3 forecast wintry weather will continue because of a polar vortex cold trough extending foremost over Central Europe and an accompanying powerful blocking Atlantic high.

ECMWF-Prognose vom 3. März 2016 für den arktischen Polarwirbel in 150 hPa (13000m) für den 13. März 2013. Der Polarwirbel ist stark gestört und hat zwei Teilwirbel (Dipol) . Ein breiter weit nach Süden ausgreifender kalter Trog reicht vom Nordmeer über Nord- und Mitteleuropa bis nach Nordafrika. Über dem Nordatlantik und Westeuropa hat sich ein mächtiger blockierenden Hochdruckrücken gebildet: Der Märzwinter in großen Teilen Europas dauert an. Quelle: wie vor

Source: www.geo.fu-berlin.fu.winterdiagnostics/html

Today the newest model forecast has been crunched out and it shows a cold trough extending well into Central and Eastern Europe even after mid March – thanks to a blocking high over Scandinavia and a low centered over western Russia:

GFS-Prognose der Temperaturen in 850 hPa (rund 1500 m) vom 5.3. für den 19.3.2016. Zwiscdhen einer Hochdruckbrücke über Skandinavien und einem kräftigen russischen Tief werden in einem breiten hohreihende Strom eisige sibirische Luftmassen nach Ost- und Mitteleuropa geführt. Quelle: wie vor

Source: wetterzentrale.de, data from US GFS models.

That’s all it takes. Europeans will recall that the opposite pattern dominated late last year, giving Europe one of the mildest November-December periods on record.

It’s the patterns, stupid! It has nothing to do with global warming. Like local temperature is dominated by atmospheric patterns, global temperature is dominated by the oceanic patterns. It’s warm now globally because of an El Nino.

What follows is the GFS temperature forecast chart for 14 days out, March 19:

GFS-Prognose der Tmin vom 5.3. für den 19.3.2016. Der Märzwinter 2016 ist mit Nachtfrost bis -29°C in voller Fahrt. Quelle:

Source: www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Note that the GFS model forecasts nighttime temperatures to fall to as low as a staggering -29°C for March 19!

Of course forecasts this far out are fraught with much very real uncertainty, and so it is very likely that such cold readings will not be reached. Revisions come daily.

What follows are the forecast noontime temperatures for March 19, where we see widespread freezing:

GFS-Prognose der Tmax vom 5.3. für den 19.3.2016. Mit Temperaturen verbreitet unter 0°C wird - nicht nur - in Deutschland ein Eistag gerechnet. Quelle: wie vor

Source: www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Schneefan summarizes by stating that there is even the possibility that the second half of March winding up colder than the first half.

Weather forecasts are indeed fickle, and so only time will tell if it really will get cold. Often times patterns flip unexpectedly and bring the opposite. Let’s hope it does. As mild as this winter has been, most agree that it has been long enough already. An icy March would be brutal and tough to take.

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46 responses to “Moscow Sees Heaviest March Snowfall in 50 Years …Bitter Winter Ahead For Europe In March 2016? … -29°C ?”

  1. DirkH

    “Note that the GFS model forecasts nighttime temperatures to fall to as low as a staggering -29°C for March 19!”

    Hey that looks centered over Munich. That’s where I currently work (spending every second weekend in the North in Brunswick). That’ll be fun. Munchkins are not used to real cold. But I am. I guess they’ll all be calling in sick AGAIN.

    1. yonason

      At least they grow awesome radishes
      http://www.rareseeds.com/munchener-bier-radi/

      No Munchkins in that crop, and they can get a lot bigger than shown in that photo. A bit on the hot side, but not too much so. Very tasty as well.

      PS – thanks for the link to noscript. It’s keeping my comp from crashing as much as it used to, as well as preventing lots of nuisance ads. Very nice.

      1. DirkH

        I had a nice dish called Münchner Tellerfleisch (Munichian plate of meat, lit.), roasted oxen served with a radi preparation. Very hot, only topped by Russian mustard IMHO, with regards to mustardish hotness. Which is different than Chili hotness.

        1. yonason

          I agree. Mustard heat is a better choice with it than hot pepper, or even horseradish, as I’ve seen some recipes call for.

          The American version would seem to be the New England Boiled Dinner. Also very tasty.

          Oh, look at the time. I better start preparing my lunch. =)

          1. Colorado Wellington

            I agree on the mustard rather than peppers, but Münchner Tellerfleisch mit frischem Kren (with fresh horseradish) was one of my favorites in Munich. Right after a Sunday brunch of Weißwürscht with mustard (unlike the Isarpreißn I somehow already knew how to eat it and didn’t embarrass myself the first time I did).

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbIAlcjbUKQ

          2. yonason

            Here’s a recipe for you, then
            http://dermutanderer.de/muenchner-tellerfleisch/

            Funny. Isarpreißn, pay close attention.
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJLC-kqfKqg

            And what was with the catsup? The only thing I ever use catsup on is . . . um, . . . Come to think of it, I never use it.

          3. yonason

            That reminds me of that line from Spaceballs
            https://www.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/4b29bd2e-90e9-4d1a-b6d2-0382e177af7b

          4. Brian H

            Have taken a liking to Heinz Hot & Spicy ketchup. Based on Tabasco.

          5. Colorado Wellington

            And that reminds me of my favorite culinary scenes.

            First, in the Outback.

            Mick: “How do you like your goanna? Medium? Well done?”
            Sue: “You don’t really expect me to eat that?”
            Mick: “Yeah, it’s great. Yeah, try some of these yams, try the grubs and the sugar ants. Just bite the end off, they’re really sweet. Black fellas love ’em.”
            Sue: “What about you, aren’t you having any?”
            Mick: “Me? Ah…well, you can live on it, but it tastes like shit.”

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ6EyoqFWQM

            Later in New York.

            Sue: “One dog, please. With chili, onions, sauerkraut, and some peppers. There you go.”
            Mick: “You eat that?”
            Sue: “Well, you know, you can live on it, but it tastes like shit.”

          6. yonason

            “Have taken a liking to Heinz Hot & Spicy ketchup. Based on Tabasco”. – Brian H

            Yes, but that’s not the same as plain ketchup.

            Have you ever tried This on meatloaf. Cocktail sauce (with horse radish) is also good, but not on boiled or roasted beef, IMO.

          7. DirkH

            Luckily German supermarket chains have stocked up with this:
            http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sriracha-Chilli-Sauce-Flying-Goose/dp/B003UO78FI

  2. David Appell

    Remember the 2010 Moscow extreme heat wave? Killed about 50,000 people.

    1. yonason

      From what I’ve seen, you’ve vastly inflated the number of dead.

      Also, remember that these are Russians, who don’t seem to realize that drinking and swimming don’t mix.
      http://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-heat-wave-vodka-deadly-mix-drowning/story?id=11170454

      And, even when not swimming, one needs to remember to drink lots of water, NOT vodka. In a heat wave, or even if it’s just as hot as usual, that alone can save your life.

      1. yonason

        India (2003) – 1300 dead with temperatures reaching 122 Deg F.

        Russia (2010) – 15,000 dead with temperatures reaching 99 Deg F.

        I have personally survived extended temps in the very upper 90’s in MA, and a summer in MD were it got over 100 entirely too often. And I did it WITHOUT A.C.!

        So, what makes Russia different? I would argue that it’s not just the Temperature. And here’s the PROOF.

    2. David Johnson
    3. Colorado Wellington

      I know it’s complicated because weather is not always climate. I don’t have time this morning to consult chicken entrails. Can you spare a chicken and let us know what kind of weather this is, David?

      1. yonason

        He can have mine. I seem to have lost my appetite. and besides, I can’t find my Chinese chicken entrails dictionary.

    4. Mindert Eiting

      The Spanish Flu killed in 1918 around 75 million people. It’s your turn.

      1. yonason

        In the United States alone, nearly 300 million turkeys are killed yearly for meat
        https://kpbs.media.clients.ellingtoncms.com/img/photos/2012/08/08/julia_turkey_tx800.jpg?aae402d4163f394116c3dd6e602f75

        1. Mindert Eiting

          Pass.

  3. sod

    I am sorry, but i am staring in utter disbelieve at this repetition of false claims about cold and snow.

    I was in Freudenstadt yesterday, about as snowy as the black forest (apart from some peaks) gets. Possibly influenced by the constant talk about snow and cold (and a weather report that spoke of snowfalls there) I even thought of bringing a sledge along to our trip to the swimming pool.

    But snow was measured in millimeters there and there were specks of brwon and green everywhere. We also arrived in slight rain, no chance for any sort of winter sports at all.

    So what “trick” allows this constant talk about cold and snowfall, in complete contradiction of reality?

    There are two main techniques used:

    1. First Trick is a simple focus on the most cold and snowy forecast, without any countercheck against other forecasts or reality. (thanks to Pierre for making at least a slight disclaimer in his comments).

    2. The second trick is a constantly shifting focus on the oine cold place on the planet. Be it Iceland, Moscow, Ireland, the UK or wherever. Focus of these reports always is the single colder spot on the globe. The big picture, february was the hottest by far, even in the satellite record, gets completely lost.

    1. yonason

      Shhhh. Quiet down. They are auditioning for a part in the Ballet “Snow Queen.” Don’t disturb their concentration.

    2. yonason

      “I am sorry, but i am staring in utter disbelieve at this repetition of [allegedly] false claims about cold and snow.” – sod

      Of course, if you want to make “false claims about [heat] and [drought],” he’s all ears.

      1. Colorado Wellington

        But sod is right. Look at this video of a mid-January snowstorm in Allgäu:

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAOLPYKbxh4

        And February in Schwarzwald:

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8z8-g18dSjU

        And March in Allgäu again:

        http://www.wetteronline.de/fotostrecken/2016-03-01-sm

        First, I can see the green and brown right through the blizzard or where the tractor ploughed through the snow.

        Second, the poor sod is like an inverse mythical doppelgänger of Al Gore. The Gore-negative “sod effect” strikes wherever he goes. Portly Al should hire him to go places and make speeches about global warming. We would never hear of Gore Effect, frost and snow again. There would be only sod, heat and drought.

        1. sod

          sorry again, but i am not sure what you are trying to tell me?!?

          This is the black forest and the Allgäu. Both places get tons of snow each year. What are those videos and fotos from places up to 1000 m high supposed to show? Allgäu is about as high as Germany gets.

          There was very little snow and cold this year. That is a fact. It was a warm winter in comparison. Why are you trying to deny the facts? Strange!

          1. yonason

            “Allgäu is about as high as Germany gets.” – sod

            Not doing so bad yourself, …man.

            But, yeah, I so totally see your point.
            _______________________________________________
            Kempten (Allgaeu)
            Elevation above sea level: 681 m = 2234 ft

            Isny im Allgau
            Elevation above sea level: 707 m = 2319 ft

            Furtwangen im Schwarzwald
            Elevation above sea level: 857 m = 2811 ft

            Schonau im Schwarzwald
            Elevation above sea level: 535 m = 1755 ft

            Freudenstadt, Germany
            Elevation: 716.8 m. 2352 ft

          2. yonason

            “Allgäu is about as high as Germany gets.” – sod

            Not doing so bad yourself, …man.

            But, yeah, I so totally see your point.

            Kempten (Allgaeu)
            Elevation above sea level: 681 m _ 2234 ft

            Isny im Allgau
            Elevation above sea level: 707 m _ 2319 ft

            Furtwangen im Schwarzwald
            Elevation above sea level: 857 m _ 2811 ft

            Schonau im Schwarzwald
            Elevation above sea level: 535 m _ 1755 ft

            Freudenstadt, Germany
            Elevation above sea level 716.8 m _ 2352 ft

          3. yonason

            I looked up the elevations above sea level for C.W.’s locations, and they are lower that your HappyTown, which was given to be 717 meters (the others ranging between 535 and 707). Something may be “high” there, but it may not be the locations, if ya catch my drift.

        2. yonason

          OK, I tried responding twice. They both may appear later, …or not. Most do, but not all. Guess I’ll leave it at that for now.

          1. yonason

            So, you want to team up Al Bore and sod? I’m thinking all you will get out of the deal is “wintry mix.”

        3. yonason

          I don’t know why I’m having so much trouble replying to this comment, but I looked up the elevations above sea level of your two locations and Freudenstadt, sod’s favorite mud wallow, and they are essentially the same. (his slightly higher, actually) But it won’t let me post. Maybe THIS one will make it?

    3. DirkH

      “So what „trick“ allows this constant talk about cold and snowfall, in complete contradiction of reality?”

      There was snowfall in Munich last week and today. And it’s cold. You say I’m hallucinating? I don’t trust you. I’ll keep wearing my Parka just in case.

    4. AndyG55

      Yes, we should focus on where that heat was….

      nearly all the warm anomaly comes from a 3C anomaly in the eastern Russian WINTER.

      Its NOT HEAT.. its still COLD… just not as cold as usual. And I bet the people up there are LOVIN’ IT

      1. sod

        “Its NOT HEAT.. its still COLD… just not as cold as usual. And I bet the people up there are LOVIN‘ IT”

        As i keep telling you in these topics, the people in the skiing resorts are hating it.

        Your just switching to a different level of denial.

        Obviously the claim that it is cold, was false. Now you shift first to the strange position that war winters are still cold (no, they are not! This kind of warming simply menas no/little snow at places that got plenty in the past). And final point is, warm is good anyway.

        1. AndyG55

          Oh the poor ski resorts.. ONE bad season or two..

          Don’t PANIC or sob, there will be plenty of really good ones over the next 20-30 years !

          Interesting that you think a rise for -10C to -4C makes it warm.

          Head off to Siberia and see how you cope. !! 😉

          1. yonason
          2. yonason

            Of course, when it’s too cold to safely leave your cabin, it doesn’t matter how good the snow is for skiing. Poor sod, he just can’t win!

            One Thanksgiving I was in the White Mountains at a relative’s cabin. It was 17 deg F. And it wasn’t even winter yet.

      2. yonason

        It appears. It disappears. One day it’s there, and the next it’s gone. VAGABOND HEAT! – a thermodynamic mystery.

  4. yonason

    Severe Weather Events Throughout History

    http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/climatehistory.pdf

  5. Modelle: Heftiger Märzwinter 2016 in der zweiten Monatshälfte in Deutschland und Europa? – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

    […] Der nicht nur in den USA bekannte Meteorologe Joe Bastardi befürchtet am 5. März 2016 in seinem Video einen heftigen Märzwinter vor allem in der zweiten Monatshälfte in Europa: http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-march-5-2016 (Thanks to P. Gosselin – Bitter Winter Ahead For Europe In March 2016? Moscow Sees Heaviest March Snowfall in 50 Years! […]

  6. yonason

    Hi, Pierre. there’s a new glitch. Never had this problem before, and since your website came back online, it’s happening with increasing frequency. My posts aren’t all being displayed. Some do appear later, but others never. I hope there’s a way of fixing it, because it’s really quite annoying.

    Thanks.

  7. sod

    UPDATE: Reality check. The cold weather did not show up.

    We had 5 cm of snow yessterday, but an extremely sunny and warm afternoon, so basically all of it is gone again.

    The weatherreport is clear: the “Warning, huuge extremes” are off the table. Temperatures will be slightly below average, it is not the most sunny start of a spring ever.

    http://www.wetter.de/cms/der-wettertrend-vom-09-03-2016-2773716.html

    Will there be some update to this post which will do an analysis of the real weather in comparison to the forecasts?

  8. iphone repair albuquerque

    Weather forecasters predict the strongest snowfall for the end of the week. According to Russia’s meteorological service, such snowstorms occur in March once every 50 years.

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