Schneefan (snow fan) at German climate science critical site wobleibtdieerderwaemung.de here presents the latest analysis of the current ENSO, which shows a powerful La Niña in the works.
Based on an array of data, Schneefan tells readers to expect a La Niña already early in the second half of this year and that there are signs it may turn into a Super La Nina – one that could persist until part way into 2018.
The consequence, he writes: “With a delay of 4 to 5 months, global temperatures will retreat over many years and fall below the long-term climate mean.”
From earlier ENSO models, the La Niña originally was not very evident, but the NOAA has since drastically corrected its projections and the CFSv2 is now anticipating “unusual cold sea surface temperatures in the El Niño region of 3.4,” the climate science critical site writes.
Plot of projected equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, region 3.4, from April 15, 2016. La Niña values of -0.5 K are expected already in June. Many models are projecting the -2.0°K level to be surpassed. Source: www.ncep.noaa.gov/products/html.
Schneefan reports that the latest models are now projecting “a powerfully cold La Niña is on the way” – one that could smash the earlier record set back by the La Niña of the 1970s.
The current CFSv2 projections are now pretty much in line with most of the other ENSO models, and foresees already La Niña conditions with an average of -0.9°K SSTA in August:
Schneefan also provides the numerical table from the NOAA showing past historical events since 1950:
The figures in the table above, Schneefan writes, are actually the “falsified” ones. The coldest La Niñas occurred in 1998-2001 (-1.6°K) and in 1973 (-1.9° K). The latest projections for the coming La Niña show these may even be surpassed.
Also the energy content of the equatorial water mass down to 300 meters below the surface dipped into negative territory by mid April, reaching an anomaly of -0.7°K, thus already in the La Niña range.
The chart above shows: El Niño going – La Niña coming! Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml
The next chart is a poignant display of just how powerful the oncoming La Niña is threatening to be. The chart shows the cross section of the Pacific equatorial water down to 400 meters since January 2016:
Strengthening of the Humboldt currents. The warm El Niño water has practically fully disappeared! Source: 4-month sequence of Pacific Ocean equatorial temperature anomaly cross sections.
The complex, coupled ocean/atmosphere index MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) also is pointing downward (see chart below) and will rapidly fall below zero in the months ahead, just as was the case for the super 1997/98 El Niño, but this time it’ll be earlier, Schneefan tells us:
More bad news of coming cold
Schneefan also writes that the upcoming La Niña will also coincide with a dying solar sunspot cycle, one that was a weak one to start with, and the fact that the earth is now moving further away from the sun in its orbit,. This will only make the cooling worse. He summarizes:
Thus so could the coming 2016/17 winter be as exciting as the 2010/11 winter: The Super La Nina and the Coming Winter.