The following are excerpts from German skeptic site here, wobleibtdieerderwaermung.
Already in August, is the year 2016 a bit cooler than the year 1998, according to satellite data from UAH. That situation remains the same as September saw a reading of +0.44°C.
The global 2m temperatures with a deviation of +0.38°K eased off slightly from the August reading of 0.42°K, see the following chart:
The above UAH chart shows the monthly deviations from the mean (blue line) of the global temperatures of the lower troposphere at 1500 meters altitude (TLT) and the 13-month running average (red curve). Due to a powerful globally time-shifted El Niño event beginning in the summer of 2015, there was a record string of months from November to March. There was a strong retreat from April to June, with temperatures stagnant near 0.44°K over the past 3 months. Source: UAH Global Temperature Update for September 2016: +0.44°CC.
What follows is a direct comparison of the January – August period for both 1998 and 2016 El Niño years:
The upper table shows the direct comparison of the global monthly UAH deviations from the mean for 1998 and 2016. The lower table shows that 2016, from January to August is now 0.06°K lower than 1998. Source: Global Temperature Report: August 2016.
Thus 1998’s lead is maintained when September is included, as there was no change.
After the temperature fall in May and June, the global cooling has taken a pause since July when observing the unfalsified global satellite data of the UAH.
The UAH temperatures in the tropics for June show a record two month drop since satellite measurements began in 1979.
„…In the tropics, there was a record fast 2-month cooling of -0.56°C, just edging out -0.55°C in June 1998 (also an El Nino weakening year).“
Using the unfalsified data for the first alf of the year, it is clear that 2016 is not the hottest year on record so far, and that it probably will not become the record year!
There is of course a chance that 2016 could finish equal or even a bit warmer than 1998, as Dr. Roy Spencer shows with last month’s chart:
The arrow on the right side shows the temperature development that would be necessary for 2016 to reach 1998. Source: UAH Global Temperature Update for September 2016: +0.44°C.
So what can we expect for the remainder of the year?
In October 2016 the retreat in global temperatures should resume because the global cooling La Niña is strengthening. Also the current strong retreat in sea surface temperatures (SSTA) in the main El Niño region 3.4 is clear to see:
The above plot shows the daily SSTA in the El Niño 3.4 region as a deviation from the WMO 1981-2010 mean. The data are from NOAA/CDAS (Climate Data Assimilation System). The value as of 3 October 2016 is -0.94°K, well into La Nina territory. Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/.