Weather Models Now Agreeing: Early WINTER BRUTALITY For Europe/Asia, With “Vicious” Conditions!

Seasonal forecasts are iffy. Right now, however, there are strengthening indicators showing winter brutality in the pipeline for Europe rushing at us like an express train.

Don’t let the current relatively benign autumn conditions fool you. I’ve been following all of this over the past couple of weeks, and as a result decided last Friday to get the winter tires installed! The trend has crystalized and solidified.

It doesn’t look good if you’re hoping for a mild euro winter start – like the one we really had last year.

German weather and climate site wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung here provides some background on what is in store in the latest analysis titled:

Winter is coming early to Europe – polar vortex splits!”

Right off the bat the site provides the latest ECMWF analysis of the geopotential 150 hPa (approx. 14 km altitude, lower stratosphere) from 28 October 2016, writing:

The polar vortex for this time of the year is unusually powerful and has expanded far to the south. It has two partial vortices over Siberia and Northern Canada (polar vortex split), whereby the polar vortex over Siberia is stronger. A powerful cold trough of the partial vortex over Siberia (Rossby waves) is positioned over North and Eastern Europe and feeds cold polar air downward. Source:”

The German site also points to the QBO, quasi-biennal ossillation in September 2016 has flipped in favor of powerful easterly winds:

In the easterly wind phase (negative QBO) the Arctic polar vortex can collapse (negative AO), and then with high probability lead to a cold winter.”

Bastardi: “vicious” conditions for mid November

Meanwhile 40-year veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi further solidifies the early winter European trend with his addictive weekly Saturday Summary at WeatherBELL Analytics site here:


At the 12:45 mark Joe presents a chart of the forecast model 11-16 days out for the northern hemisphere (above), calling the Russian-European situation “vicious”, exclaiming that he is “in awe of that”. Note the vast swath of cold extending all across Siberia, Russia, China, India, Europe and beyond.

Keep in the back of your minds, however, that the atmosphere is chaotic, and thus surprises are always in store. There’s no 100% certainty in these forecasts. Still, the probabilities for colder than normal conditions over the weeks ahead are strong – likely much stronger now than Clinton winning the presidency.


16 responses to “Weather Models Now Agreeing: Early WINTER BRUTALITY For Europe/Asia, With “Vicious” Conditions!”

  1. Der Winter kommt früh nach Europa – Polarwirbel teilt sich! – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

    […] zum WMO-Klimamittel 1981-2010 überzogen: Der Frühwinter ist Anfang November 2016 da! Quelle: Weather Models Now Agreeing: Early WINTER BRUTALITY For Europe/Asia, With “Vicious” […]

  2. R2Dtoo

    So who to believe? The map shows a very warm area in central Canada. The Weather Network (Canada) shows a massive cold blob over most of central NA during the same week. Deer hunting opens 14 Nov. My question is am I going to enjoy the season or freeze my ass off? Just saying

  3. tom0mason

    So while everyone seems to be looking intently at the ice cubes in the water of the polar region, the land surrounding it is set for freezing weather.
    Tell me again what is the good indicator of climate trends — Land or sea?

    Also from

    Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

    Snow cover advance across Eurasia continues at a rapid pace the first three weeks of October. Also because much of the advance has occurred at latitudes south of 60°N the snow advance index is also above normal. Predicted atmospheric conditions continue to favor the rapid advance of Eurasian snow cover through the end of the month. Therefore confidence is high that October Eurasian snow cover will be well above normal once again this year and in the range of the past four Octobers. Above normal snow cover favors a strengthened Siberian high and a weakened polar vortex/negative AO this upcoming winter with cold temperatures across the continents of the NH.

    1. Jeremy Poynton

      Land or sea?

      Or both?

  4. Stephen Richards

    I have been unable to find Joes Saturday summary since they changed the site. Give us a direct link please

    1. CraigM350

      Stephen Richards – click on News/Press under the drop down menu and you’ll find the Saturday summary there if you scroll down the page.

    2. The Indomitable Snowman, Ph.D.

      Here you go, both the Saturday Summary and the very useful Daily Summary (M – F) can be found here:

      All part of the service!

  5. DirkH

    “and as a result decided last Friday to get the winter tires installed! ”

    General rule in Northern Germany is “O to O” – “O”stern – Eastern to “O”ctober – so get the summer tires on on Eastern and get’em off in October. So, sounds like a perfectly normal onset of cold temperatures.

  6. Modelle: Früher Novemberwinter in Europa – Eiskalter November in Deutschland? – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

    […] Farben) mit Abweichungen zum WMO-Klimamittel 1981-2010 überzogen: Der Frühwinter ist da! Quelle: Weather Models Now Agreeing: Early WINTER BRUTALITY For Europe/Asia, With “Vicious” […]

  7. Bryson

    why has it been so warm in the arctic this fall temperatures are up to 16 degrees Celsius up there is there any explanation for that.

  8. Bryson

    meant 16 degrees Celsius warmer than normal

  9. Bryson

    Why has it been so warm in the arctic region recently it has been up to 16 degrees Celsius warmer than normal up there is there an explanation for the warmth.

    1. Jan_Vermeer
      1. AndyG55

        The warm from the North Atlantic blob is being sucked up through Bering Strait, sea ice in the Chukchi Sea and the East Siberia Sea is struggling for now.

        Once that warmth dissipates, the sea ice will grow rapidly…. but all that energy will be gone. !

        I think winter up north could be rather nasty this year.

    2. AndyG55

      If we look at the SST for the Arctic we see that the Barents, Kara Sea area is still quite warm as is the Chukchi Sea.

      The Barents/Kara Sea region sits right under the remnants of the El Nino warming that’s been hanging about over northern Europe/Russia for ages
      (I’ve only got the Sept world UAH world temps map, but its pretty obvious)

      And as Jan points out, a big low that was sitting West of Alaska pulled the warm from the north Atlantic blob up through Bering Strait.

  10. Mike Gilding

    Hi Pierre,

    You put up a post on 30th Oct about irregularities in Swiss temperature data but appear to have taken it down. Is there a problem?

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