At the site of the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) Josef Kowatsch and Stefan Kämpfe look at the frosty spells that typically occur in mid May, the so-called “Ice Saints“, which are widely reported on by the German media each year.
The German DWD national weather service, once a model for meteorology and climate, has over the years taken on a more activist global warming role, with some even claiming that it too has joined the propaganda army of the man-made global warming movement.
Not surprisingly, the DWD management has been claiming in the press that the so-called Eisheilige (Ice Saints) have been getting less intense over the years and that they may wind up disappearing altogether. Because of global warming!
Often typical in mid May, a weather pattern involving a high located over the North Atlantic near Iceland feeds blasts of polar air across Europe. This happened last year on May 14, 2016 – see following chart:
Figure 1: A high over Iceland pumped polar air (blue arrow) across Europe, 2016.
Unfortunately, the DWD has been spreading false information on Europe’s Ice Saints, the two authors at EIKE write, and that their article is to make German readers aware that the DWD top management has been “regularly telling complete falsehoods to the media over the past years in the week before may 11“.
Kowatsch and Kämpfe add.
The DWD Chairman has claimed that over all the previous years:
1) The “Ice saints” recently have been getting continuously warmer and that they will soon become the Hot Saints, which the press then gladly called the Sweating Saints, and
2) the Ice Saints have practically disappeared on account of climate warming.”
These claims of course aroused the suspicions of Kowatsch and Kämpfe, who decided to go back and look at the DWD’s own data. What they found is that the DWD had been misleading the media and the public with statements of warmer Ice Saints periods, and that in fact the very opposite has been occurring: the Ice Saints have been getting colder!
The following charts show the mean May 11-15 temperature for Potsdam, which is home of the notoriously alarmist Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), headed by global warming pope, Prof. Dr. Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber.
Figure 1: The Ice Saints (May 11-15) for Potsdam, Germany since 1985 – going back more than 30 years. The mid-May frosty period has in fact been getting colder, not warmer as the DWD has claimed. Chart: Josef Kowatsch
Kowatsch and Kämpfe also present the trend for Dresden-Klotzsche, an official station of the DWD. It too shows a cooling trend. So why would the media be reporting that the “Ice Saints” have been disappearing? Baffling, to say the least.
Figure 2: DWD station Dresden Klotzsche. Blue curve shows the May 11-15 mean temperature with linear trend, 1985 – 2016. Brown shows the maximum high temperatures, gray shows the minimum temperatures and yellow shows the 5 cm surface temperature. Chart: Samuel Hochauf. For 2016 the mean temperature was 12.88°C, i.e. right on trend.
Kowatsch and Kämpfe summarize:
All four trend lines [in Figure 2] show that the Ice Saints have been getting colder since 1985, and not warmer. All four trend lines show that the statements from the DWD management are false. The Ice Saints in Germany are getting colder.
Kowatsch and Kämpfe also look at another DWD weather station, which has been in operation since 1996: Goldbach bei Bischofswerda. Here as well the Ice Saints have been getting steeply colder:
This makes it all the more puzzling that the DWD higher-ups would be using the terms “recently has been“, or “is currently” getting” when telling the public the Mid May frost periods are disappearing. Example here.
Kowatsch and Kämpfe write that this year the DWD spoekespeople should make major changes in the next press releases on the subject of mid May cold spells, suggesting: “The month of May is getting colder and the Ice Saints are getting even colder” and that he should add the remark: “The Ice Saints soon will be as cold as they were in the mid 20th century, some 60 years ago when scientists worried about a new ice age.”
Why are May cold snaps in Europe getting colder?
Kowatsch and Kämpfe suspect that solar activity may be a major factor in the may cooling, as it is known that it has an impact on large weather patterns over Europe. Solar activity has been dwindling over the past 2 decades. Another factor maybe the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which now appears to be coming down from its warm peak. CO2 obviously is having no effect at all.
Josef Kowatsch is an independent nature and climate researcher. Stefan Kämpfe is an agricultural engineer and also an independent nature and climate researcher.
PS: This year it appears that the Ice Saints will be right on schedule, with even winter conditions (snow!) across Scandinavia and Eastern Europe.