The ‘Real Proxy’ Temperature Record
Hints Near-Global Cooling Has Begun
As a new scientific paper (Turney et al., 2017) indicates, the Southern Ocean encompasses 14% of the Earth’s surface. And according to regional temperature measurements that have apparently not been subjected to warming “corrections” by data adjusters, the Southern Ocean has been cooling in recent decades.
The Northern Hemisphere embodies the top half (50%) of the world’s surface. And according to many scientists’ temperature reconstructions using proxy evidence (ice cores, tree rings, etc.) from numerous locations North of the equator, there has been no net warming in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1940s.
Antarctica (2.7%) and the Indian Ocean (14.4%) together represent about 17% of the Earth’s surface. Neither Antarctica nor the Indian Ocean have been observed to have warmed since the 1970s, with Antarctica exhibiting a cooling trend.
Just these regions of the globe alone represent more than 75% of the Earth’s surface. A net non-warming (cooling) trend in these regions in recent decades is highly inconsistent with commonly accepted instrumental data sets (such as NOAA, NASA, and HadCRUT) which show an abrupt recent warming trend – especially since the 1980s.
Is Ice Core Evidence More Reliable Than Heavily Adjusted Instrumental Record?
Earlier this year, an intriguing paper published by Steiger et al. (2017) contrasted the instrumental temperature record (which showed dramatic recent warming) with the global-scale temperature record as revealed by “real proxy” evidence from ice cores. The reconstructions using proxy evidence showed a global warming trend during the first half of the 20th century, and then no significant net warming thereafter.
“Through several idealized and real proxy experiments we assess the spatial and temporal extent to which isotope records can reconstruct surface temperature, 500 hPa geopotential height, and precipitation. We find local reconstruction skill to be most robust across the reconstructions, particularly for temperature and geopotential height, as well as limited non-local skill in the tropics. These results are in agreement with long-held views that isotopes in ice cores have clear value as local climate proxies, particularly for temperature and atmospheric circulation.”
Interestingly, the Steiger et al., (2017) “real proxy” global temperature trends during the modern era seem to align with hundreds of other regional proxy temperature reconstructions that permeate the recently-published scientific literature.
Scientists have previously acknowledged that (a) an artificial (urbanization) warming bias of more than 0.1°C per decade existed in the post-1970s instrumental records, (b) 1/3rd of the oceans hadn’t even been sampled (temperatures) yet as of the 1990s, and (c) overseers of temperature data sets just “made up” temperatures in places where there was no data. Therefore, could it be possible that “real proxy” temperature reconstructions are more reliable and authentic than the data from thermometers corrupted by urbanization and bias?
Below is a compilation of about 65 graphs from peer-reviewed scientific papers indicating that recent decades are no warmer (and in several cases cooler) than the instrumental data sets suggest.
For large regions of the globe, cooling may have already begun.
Southern Ocean (Pacific) – Cooling Since 1979
“Occupying about 14% of the world’s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. … As a result of anomalies in the overlying wind, the surrounding waters are strongly influenced by variations in northward Ekman transport of cold fresh subantarctic surface water and anomalous fluxes of sensible and latent heat at the atmosphere–ocean interface. This has produced a cooling trend since 1979.”
“Cooling is evident over most of the Southern Ocean in all seasons and the annual mean, with magnitudes approximately 0.2–0.4°C per decade or 0.7–1.3°C over the 33 year period [1979-2011].”
Northern Hemisphere – No Net Warming Since 1940s
Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea) – No Net Warming Since 1970s (1750)
Asia – No Net Warming Since 19th Century
“[T]emperature in Central Asia and northern Hemisphere revert back towards cooling trends in the late twentieth century.”
“The decreasing temperature trend in late 20th century is consistent with trends noted in Nepal (Cook et al. 2003), Tibet (Briffa et al. 2001) and Central Asia (Briffa et al. 2001).”
“[W]e should point out that the rapid warming during the 20th century was not especially obvious in our reconstructed RLST [surface temperatures].”
South America – No Net Warming Since Mid-20th Century
“…the period just before AD 1950 was substantially warmer than more recent decades.”
Europe – No Net Warming Since Mid-20th Century
Antarctica – Cooling Since 1960s-1980s
“[O]ur spatial analysis of Antarctic meteorological data demonstrates a net cooling on the Antarctic continent between 1966 and 2000, particularly during summer and autumn.”
Greenland, Arctic – No Net Warming Since 1930s, Cooling Since 2005
“The annual whole ice sheet 1919–32 warming trend is 33% greater in magnitude than the 1994–2007 warming.”
“For the most recent 10 years (2005 to 2015), apart from the anomalously warm year of 2010, mean annual temperatures at the Summit exhibit a slightly decreasing trend in accordance with northern North Atlantic-wide cooling.”
Iceland – No Net Warming Since 1930s-1940s
Northern North America – No Net Warming Since 1930s
“…in the last 150 yr, the reconstructed temperatures do not indicate a warming during this time.”
Eastern U.S. – No Net Warming Since Mid-20th Century
North Atlantic – No Net Warming Since 1800s…Cooling Since 2005
“The SST anomaly field for June 2015 shows temperatures up to 2 °C colder than normal over much of the sub-polar gyre with values that are the coldest observed for this month of the year in the period 1948–2015 indicated by stippling.
“A prominent feature of this record is the ∼1°C warm anomaly that occurred between 1930 and 1950. …Carolina Slope SST does not exhibit the warming trend seen in the AMO since the 1970s suggesting that other factors also impact SST variability at our site.”