Future Global Warming Scenarios ‘Potentially Beneficial’, Cooling May Cause Ecological ‘Declines’
“Our data suggest that future global warming scenarios would potentially be beneficial for the hydrological and ecological conditions of the EASM [East Asian Summer Monsoon] margin, while small decreases in the precipitation and temperature superimposed on the long-term deteriorated climate may cause large declines in the hydrology and ecology in the semi-arid regions of northern China.”
Human Health Risks ‘Extremely Sensitive’ To Temperature, With Cold Temperatures More Dangerous
“Numerous previous studies have reported that human health risk is extremely sensitive to temperature. … At the community level, the mean value of relative extreme cold risk (1.63) of all 122 communities was higher than that of extreme high temperature (1.15). … A prolonged impact of low temperature [cold] on human health was observed in China”
Mass Extinctions Caused By Cold Temperatures (Ice Ages), Not Global Warming
“The Earth has known several mass extinctions over the course of its history. One of the most important happened at the Permian-Triassic boundary 250 million years ago. Over 95% of marine species disappeared and, up until now, scientists have linked this extinction to a significant rise in Earth temperatures. But researchers have now discovered that this extinction took place during a short ice age which preceded the global climate warming. It’s the first time that the various stages of a mass extinction have been accurately understood and that scientists have been able to assess the major role played by volcanic explosions in these climate processes.”
Warming Leads To Less Extreme, Unstable Weather, Cooling Does The Opposite
“Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.”
“Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.”
“The hurricane analysis conducted by Burn and Palmer (2015) determined that hurricane activity was subdued during the [warm] Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (~900-1350 CE) and became more produced during the [cold] Little Ice Age (LIA) (~1450-1850 CE), followed by a period of variability occurred between ~1850 and ~1900 before entering another subdued state during the industrial period (~1950-2000 CE). In general, the results of this study corroborate these findings.”
“[W]hile hurricane activity was greater during the LIA, it also had more frequent periods of drought compared to the MCA (Burn and Palmer 2014), suggesting that climate fluctuations were more pronounced in the LIA compared to the MCA. The changes in the diatom distribution and fluctuations in chl-a recorded in this study starting around 1350 also indicate that variations in climate have become more distinct during the LIA and from ~1850-1900. … [C]limate variability has increased following the onset of the Little Ice Age (~1450-1850 CE), however it is difficult to distinguish the impacts of recent anthropogenic climate warming on hurricane activity from those of natural Atlantic climate regimes, such as ENSO.”
Warming Leads To Fewer And Less Intense Hurricanes
“Results indicate that the midlatitude summer cyclone activity over East Asia exhibits decadal changes in the period of 1979–2013 and is significantly weakened after early 1990s. … Moreover, there is a close linkage between the weakening of cyclonic activity after the early 1990s and the nonuniform surface warming of the Eurasian continent. Significant warming to the west of Mongolia tends to weaken the north–south temperature gradient and the atmospheric baroclinicity to its south and eventually can lead to weakening of the midlatitude cyclone activity over East Asia.”
“This study analysed the time series of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency during October–December (OND) for 32 years (1980–2011). There was a strong decreasing trend of TCs [tropical cyclones] until recently, and the TC sharply decreased from 1996 after the statistical change-point analysis was applied to this time series.”
“Since the late 1800s, in contrast to much of the Southeastern USA, the Georgia coast has experienced infrequent hurricane landfalls, particularly in recent decades. As a result, coastal storm preparedness complacency appears to be rampant along the Georgia coastline. Both local and state governments were unprepared for shadow evacuation during Hurricane Floyd in 1999. The study described here includes an examination of temporal and spatial trends in hurricane landfall along the Georgia coast from 1750 to 2012. Since 1750, 18 of the 24 recorded hurricanes that made landfall along the Georgia coast occurred between 1801 and 1900, yet the hurricane intensities have declined since 1851.”
Stable Or Decreasing Trends In Drought And Flood Frequency With Warming
“[A] 122-year record of major flooding depths at the Rarawai Sugar Mill on the Ba River in the northwest of the Fijian Island of Viti Levu is analysed. … It exhibits no statistically significant trends in either frequency or flood heights, once the latter have been adjusted for average relative sea-level rise. This is despite persistent warming of air temperatures as characterized in other studies. There is a strong dependence of frequency (but not magnitude) upon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, with many more floods in La Niña phases. The analysis of this long-term data series illustrates the difficulty of detecting a global climate change signal from hazard data, even given a consistent measurement methodology (cf HURDAT2 record of North Atlantic hurricanes) and warns of the strong dependence of any statistical significance upon choices of start and end dates of the analysis.”
“In this study, a monthly water-balance model is used to simulate monthly runoff for 2109 hydrologic units (HUs) in the conterminous United States (CONUS) for water-years 1901 through 2014. … Results indicated that … the variability of precipitation appears to have been the principal climatic factor determining drought, and for most of the CONUS, drought frequency appears to have decreased during the 1901 through 2014 period.”
Higher CO2 Concentrations Are Greening The Earth, Reducing Desert Area And Drought Stress
“The sustained increasing vegetation activity trend (greening) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has been a prominent feature in satellite observations since the 1980s and is consistently simulated by models. The trend in vegetation greenness has been linked to increasing growing season length at high latitudes and enhancemed terrestrial CO2 uptake in northern ecosystems. The greening pace has been associated with asymmetric effects of climate trends in vegetation activity or variations in the climate forcing. It has also been shown that regional greening trends are further attributed to land use change, land management, CO2 fertilization, and nitrogen deposition”
“[M]aternal CO2 environment modulated the response of wheat plants to drought stress in terms of biomass production, [such that] plants reared from seeds harvested from the e[CO2] maternal growth environment eliminated the negative impact of drought stress on DM [dry biomass]. … [T]ransgenerational exposure to e[CO2] also attenuated the negative impact of drought on evapotranspiration in wheat plants. … [T]ransgenerational exposure of wheat plants to e[CO2] [elevated CO2] could attenuate the negative impact of drought stress in terms of DM and WUE [water use efficiency].”
“Here we used a passive microwave Earth observation data set to document two different trends in land area with woody cover for 1992–2011: 36% of the land area (6,870,000 km2) had an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km2), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody cover were associated with high population growth.”
“Africa has become greener in the last 20 years … [M]ore CO2 in the atmosphere together with a wetter, warmer planet, provides conditions that help trees and bushes to grow.”
“We show that in 2015, 1327 million hectares of drylands had more than 10% tree-cover, and 1079 million hectares comprised forest. Our estimate is 40 to 47% higher than previous estimates, corresponding to 467 million hectares of forest that have never been reported before. This increases current estimates of global forest cover by at least 9%.”
Regional Sea Level Changes Unremarkable…Land Area Above Sea Level Expanding
“Coastal morphology, stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, archaeological remains, historical documentation, and tide gauge records allowed us to establish a very firm and detailed record of the changes in sea level in Goa over the last 500 years. It is an oscillation record: a low level in the early 16th century, a ~50-cm high[er than now] level in the 17th century, a level below present sea level in the 18th century, a ~20-cm high level in the 19th and early 20th centuries, a ~20-cm fall in 1955–1962, and a virtually stable level over the last 50 years. This sea level record is almost identical to those obtained in the Maldives and in Bangladesh. The Indian Ocean seems to lack records of any alarming sea-level rise in recent decades; on the contrary, 10 sites analyzed indicate a sea level remaining at about 60.0, at least over the last 50 years or so.”
“The analysis in this paper is based on a recently developed analytical package titled ‘‘msltrend,’’ specifically designed to enhance estimates of trend, real-time velocity, and acceleration in the relative mean sea-level signal derived from long annual average ocean water level time series. Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or compelling evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available across Europe, nor is there any evidence that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely a further 20 years of data will distinguish whether recent increases are evidence of the onset of climate change–induced acceleration.”
Earth’s surface water change over the past 30 years [1985-2015] … “Earth’s surface gained 115,000 km2 of water and 173,000 km2 of land over the past 30 years, including 20,135 km2 of water and 33,700 km2 of land in coastal areas.”
Coastal areas were also analysed, and to the scientists’ surprise, coastlines had gained more land – 33,700 sq km (13,000 sq miles) – than they had been lost to water (20,100 sq km or 7,800 sq miles). “We expected that the coast would start to retreat due to sea level rise, but the most surprising thing is that the coasts are growing all over the world,” said Dr Baart. “We’re were able to create more land than sea level rise was taking.”
Warming, ‘Acidification’ Not Harming – Even Benefiting – Marine Species
“Ongoing ocean acidification is widely reported to reduce the ability of calcifying marine organisms to produce their shells and skeletons. Whereas increased dissolution due to acidification is a largely inorganic process, strong organismal control over biomineralization influences calcification and hence complicates predicting the response of marine calcifyers. Here we show that calcification is driven by rapid transformation of bicarbonate into carbonate inside the cytoplasm, achieved by active outward proton pumping. Moreover, this proton flux is maintained over a wide range of pCO2 levels. We furthermore show that a V-type H+ ATPase is responsible for the proton flux and thereby calcification. External transformation of bicarbonate into CO2 due to the proton pumping implies that biomineralization does not rely on availability of carbonate ions, but total dissolved CO2 may not reduce calcification, thereby potentially maintaining the current global marine carbonate production.”
“[A] group of scientists discovered to their own surprise that some tiny unicellular shellfish (foraminifera) make better shells in an acidic environment. This is a completely new insight.”
“The coast contains ‘carbonate sand factories’ where organisms produce vast amounts of sand by fixing carbon dioxide as carbonates. Far from dissolving carbonate by acidification, carbon dioxide is an essential part of carbonate production and the continued maintenance and growth of coasts and reefs. Government policies to adapt renewable energy are unlikely to affect the system.”
“Documenting an effect of OA [ocean acidification] involves showing a change in a species (e.g. population abundance or distribution) as a consequence of anthropogenic changes in marine carbonate chemistry. To date, there have been no unambiguous demonstrations of a population level effect of anthropogenic OA [ocean acidification], as that term is defined by the IPCC. … [I]t is important to acknowledge that there are no studies that directly demonstrate modern day effects of OA [ocean acidification] on marine species.”
“Exposure of the toxigenic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella to variations in pCO2/pH, comparable to current and near-future levels observed in Southern Chilean fjords, revealed potential functional adaptation mechanisms. Under calculated conditions for pH(total scale) and pCO2 ranging from 7.73–8.66 to 69.7–721.3 μatm, respectively, the Chilean strain Q09 presented an optimum growth rate and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) uptake at near-equilibrium pCO2/pH conditions (∼8.1). … We suggest that A. catenella Chilean strains are highly adapted to spatio-temporal pCO2/pH fluctuations in Chilean fjords, becoming a resilient winner from expected climate change effects.”
“No effect of high pCO2 on juvenile blue crab, Callinectes sapidus, growth and consumption despite positive responses to concurrent warming … Our study is the first to examine the effect of multiple climate stressors on blue crab and therefore basic responses, including the growth per molt (GPM), inter-molt period (IMP), and food consumption, were quantified. GPM [growth per molt] was not affected by either increased temperature or pCO2.”
“For the first time, this study investigated the independent and combined impacts of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and anthropogenic noise [produced by shipping, seismic surveys, and pile-driving] on the behaviour of a marine fish, the European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax). … Elevated CO2 did not alter the ventilation rate response to noise. Furthermore, there was no interaction effect between elevated CO2 and pile-driving noise, suggesting that OA [ocean acidification] is unlikely to influence startle or ventilatory responses of fish to anthropogenic noise.”
“We determined tolerances of E. pacifica to prolonged exposure to pH levels predicted for 2100 by maintaining adults at two pCO2 levels (380 and 1200 µatm) for 2 months. Rates of survival and moulting were the same at both pCO2 levels. High pCO2 slowed growth in all size classes.”
“Our results suggest that on mature settlement surfaces in situ, pH does not have a strong impact on the composition of bacterial biofilms. Other abiotic and biotic factors such as light exposure and interactions with other organisms may be more important in shaping bacterial biofilms on mature surfaces than changes in seawater pH.”
“High atmospheric CO2 dissolves into the surface of the ocean and lowers the pH of seawater and is thus expected to pose a potential threat to various marine organisms. We investigated the physiological and behavioural responses of adult Manila clams, Venerupis philippinarum (n = 96, shell length 25.32 ± 1.66mm and total wet weight 3.10 ± 0.54 g), to three levels (400, 700, and 900 μatm) of CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) for 48 days. There were no significant differences in mortality, growth, respiration rate, or emergence from the sediment between the three levels, indicating that near future atmospheric levels of CO2 do not seem to have a serious effect on the physiology and behaviour of adult Manila clams.”
“Here, we test the hypotheses that elevated pCO2 will differently impact the relative concentrations of divalent cations (Ca2+, Mg2+, Sr2+, and Mn2+) in four closely related species of porcelain crabs … Overall, the effect of reduced pH/elevated pCO2 on exoskeleton mineral composition was muted in mid-intertidal species relative to low-intertidal species, indicating that extant adaptation to the variable intertidal zone may lessen the impact of ocean acidification (OA) on maintenance of mineralized structures.”
“Rising temperatures increased recruitment of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia)”
“In this study, we determine the effects of decreased pH on the morphology, growth, and survival of juvenile blue king crab, Paralithodes platypus. Crabs were reared at three pH levels: ambient (control, pH ∼8.1), pH 7.8, and pH 7.5, for 1 year and monitored for morphological changes, survival, and growth. Exposure to seawater at pH 7.8 had no effect on morphology or mortality and had only a minor effect on growth compared with the ambient treatment.”
“Here, we tested the response of net photosynthesis, gross photosynthesis, dark respiration, and light-enhanced dark respiration (LEDR) of eight coral taxa and seven calcified alga taxa to six different pCO2 levels (from 280 to 2000 µatm). Organisms were maintained during 7–10 days incubations in identical conditions of light, temperature, and pCO2 to facilitate comparisons among species. Net photosynthesis was not affected by pCO2 in seven of eight corals or any of the algae; gross photosynthesis did not respond to pCO2 in six coral taxa and six algal taxa; dark respiration also was unaffected by pCO2 in six coral and six algae; and LEDR did not respond to pCO2 in any of the tested species. Overall, our results show that pCO2 levels up to 2000 µatm likely will not fertilize photosynthesis or modify respiration rates of most of the main calcifiers on the back reef of Moorea, French Polynesia.”
“Early life stages of the Arctic copepod Calanus glacialis are unaffected by increased seawater pCO2 … In this study, we investigated the effect of increased pCO2 on the early developmental stages of the key Arctic copepod Calanus glacialis. Eggs from wild-caught C. glacialis females from Svalbard, Norway (80°N), were cultured for 2 months to copepodite stage C1 in 2°C seawater under four pCO2 treatments (320, 530, 800, and 1700 μatm). … All endpoints were unaffected by pCO2 levels projected for the year 2300. These results indicate that naupliar development in wild populations of C. glacialis is unlikely to be detrimentally affected in a future high CO2 ocean.”
“Here, we use a decade-long experiment in outdoor mesocosms to investigate mechanisms of adaptation to warming (+4 °C above ambient temperature) in the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, in naturally assembled communities. Isolates from warmed mesocosms had higher optimal growth temperatures than their counterparts from ambient treatments. Consequently, warm-adapted isolates were stronger competitors at elevated temperature and experienced a decline in competitive fitness in ambient conditions, indicating adaptation to local thermal regimes. Higher competitive fitness in the warmed isolates was linked to greater photosynthetic capacity and reduced susceptibility to photoinhibition. These findings suggest that adaptive responses to warming in phytoplankton could help to mitigate projected declines in aquatic net primary production by increasing rates of cellular net photosynthesis.”
Polar Bear Populations Not Declining, Sea Ice Loss Is Not Connected To Survival
“Data collected between 2007 and 2015 reveal that polar bear numbers have not declined as predicted and no subpopulation has been extirpated. Several subpopulations expected to be at high risk of decline have remained stable and at least one showed a marked increase in population size over the entire period. Another at-risk subpopulation was not counted but showed marked improvement in reproductive parameters and body condition with less summer ice. As a consequence, the hypothesis that repeated summer sea ice levels of below 5 mkm2 will cause significant population declines in polar bears is rejected. This result indicates that the ESA and IUCN judgments to list polar bears as threatened based on future risks of habitat loss were hasty generalizations that were scientifically unfounded, which suggests that similar predictions for Arctic seals and walrus may be likewise flawed, while the lack of a demonstrable ‘sea ice decline = population decline’ relationship for polar bears invalidates updated survival model outputs that predict catastrophic population declines should the Arctic become ice-free in summer.”
“Subpopulation growth rates and the probability of decline at current harvest levels were determined for 13 subpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) that are within or shared with Canada based on mark–recapture estimates of population numbers and vital rates, and harvest statistics using population viability analyses (PVA). … Considering both TEK [traditional ecological knowledge] and scientific information, we suggest that the current status of Canadian polar bear subpopulations in 2013 was 12 stable/increasing and one declining (Kane Basin). We do not find support for the perspective that polar bears within or shared with Canada are currently in any sort of climate crisis.”
16 responses to “35 New Papers Affirm Warmth, Elevated CO2 Are Good For The Earth And Its Inhabitants”
This article undelines what is so silly about cAGW.
cAGW is based upon a fundamental misconception. This planet far from being way too hot, is presently way too cold and all life (including ourselves) would benefit from some warming. An extra few degrees would be a god send.
CO2, which is essential for all life, is way too low, not too high. Plants and thence bio diversity would greatly benefit if CO2 were to be raised to say 1200ppm+.
It follows from these 2 facts that if by some happy chance CO2 leads to some warming this would be a win win scenario, since the planet and life on it could do with both some more warmth and some more CO2.
I think that the misconception follows from not appreciating that we are currently in the midst of an ice age, but fortunately for us, we are living in a time of an inter-glacial. But inter-glacials are very transient and the Holocene is likely more than half way through. It could end in the next 4,000 to 14,000 years, and that is not a long period of time. In fact we have a building standing on this planet (the Great Pyramid) that is around 5,000 years old.
Man might be able to trace his ancestry back for more than 100,000 years and modern man for about 70,000 years, but all notable advances have coincided with the start of the Holocene. The cradle of civilisation and the advancement of man, eg., from stone age, to bronze age to iron age is temperature dependent.
We know our natural habitat is around Sudan/Ethopia, and a few assorted places in tropical rain forests and Australia. If it were not for our ability to adapt ourselves with clothing and our environment with housing (caves of old) and central heating (camp fires of old) most the globe would be uninhabitable for us as a species.
One only has to compare the bio-diversity of the tropical rain forests with life on the plains of Antarctica to realise how life loves heat. After all that is why we keep food in a refrigerator and why most of us if we can retire to warm destinations such as Florida or the Mediterranean, and not to Alaska or Siberia.
Or consider life in the Arctic. Those that can migrate to avoid the cold of the winter do, those that can’t go into a deep catatonic sleep often not to re-awake. For many creatures when the sun set in the Autumn, that is the last time they ever see daylight.
The concern behind cAGW of impending doom fails at even the most basic level. It is crazy, crazy, crazy
Actually, the last 4 interglacials averaged about 10,000 years in duration. We’re in year 11,700 of this one.
That’s us on the right…. http://www.climate4you.com/images/VostokTemp0-420000%20BP.gif
Notice how interglacials end…with a steep plunge. Summers, gone. Growing seasons, gone. Permanent snow and ice covering entire cities. Ah, the misery.
Let’s enjoy what we have while it lasts. Our ancestors would think we’re crazy for thinking that warming is bad…and that we caused it.
It has been cooling for a few thousand years now,the steep decline to a lower level is very soon. Around 900-1,000 year period there is a step down cooling that stabilizes for around a another 900-1,000 years,then does it again.
It has already been about 900 years from the last one.
cAGW is a subset of AGW, a very small one. Nutjob skeptics is a subset of regular skeptics, but from reading blogs like this one I get the feeling they make the largest group in the skeptics camp. They invent mechanisms for the sake of not wanting to be the real mechanisms to be true (like mankind causing the CO2 concentration increase, the forcing from that increase causing warming/increase of heat content, etc).
What scientists say is essentially:
1) global warming is real
2) it is us who are causing it
3) the consequences are severe
There are still skeptics arguing against point one. Those that talk about a hiatus and bring up cherry picked time series to “prove” that it is actually not warming at all”.
Then there are skeptics that accept the observation that it is indeed getting warmer but who do everything to explain away that we are the cause. Emphasizing the magnitude of natural CO2 emissions, trying to blame volcanos, questioning the radiative effects gases (short: the GHE), imagining gravity as the reason it is warm at surfaces of rocky planets/moons, etc
And last but not least there is the group that accepts that it is getting warmer and that we are largely the cause and maybe even that this is just the start, but they immediately follow up with a declaration that warming isn’t bad at all and more CO2 is good. This is all building on the fact that the minor effects we see now are indeed not that bad, but they fail to extrapolate what will eventually happen if we continue to emit as much CO2 as we have before.
There is an enlightening section in chapter 12 of the AR5 IPCC report: http://imgur.com/a/lckXJ
The last group doesn’t qualify as deniers. Maybe it is a better strategy to just live with the change and adapt. Maybe trying to reach a sustainable energy supply isn’t something that we should do. Economics will get us there eventually anyway and maybe it is a waste of money to try to get there faster.
You seem to be in camp #2.
that graph is from the GISP2 site, not GRIP. And the GISP2 graph’s present is in the 19th century! Maybe you can find the GRIP graph on your own and find out by how much Greenland temperatures increased from back then.
P.S.: Claiming that catastrophic cooling will come any year now is different from AGW proponent claiming that the world will end if we don’t stop emitting CO2 tomorrow in what way? It is exactly the same extremism …
“cAGW is a subset of AGW, a very small one.” – chatbot SebH
97% of climate scientists is a “very small” subset?
You really ARE terrible at math, aren’t you?
Uh, can you provide substantiation for this claim? Last week you wrote that you endorse the practice of proclaiming that “9 trillion tons” of Greenland ice has been lost since 1900, and de-emphasizing or refusing to mention that “9 trillion tons” of ice lost in 110 years actually only means that 1.5 cm of meltwater has been added to sea levels from Greenland since 1900, with 1.1 cm of that sea level gain occurring between the 1920s and 1930s and no contribution between 1940 and 2000 (and just 0.39 of a cm since 1993). That’s not catastrophic.
But instead of pointing out what “9 trillion tons” of lost ice actually means (1.5 cm of sea level rise in 110 years), your side routinely draws up catastrophic scenarios — like the one that says the less than 1 inch of sea level rise from Greenland icemelt is actually the equivalent of burying the US highways in 98 feet of water (times 63).
Because the reality isn’t scary enough, your side makes up fake catastrophes to scare people. And you endorse that, and then turn around and say that only a tiny subset of your side refers to climate catastrophes from ice sheet melt.
Point out those on your side who accurately emphasize how negligibly sea levels may have risen with polar ice sheet melt since 1900. Surely you can provide several examples of this if the percentage of catastrophists is “very small” compared to the realists reporting accurately on ice sheet melt contributions to sea level rise. Let’s see even one.
According to the “godfather” of AGW, sea levels will rise by 10 feet by 2065 due primarily to the catastrophic melting of the polar ice sheets.
“The study—written by James Hansen, NASA’s former lead climate scientist, and 16 co-authors, many of whom are considered among the top in their fields—concludes that glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica will melt 10 times faster than previous consensus estimates, resulting in sea level rise of at least 10 feet in as little as 50 years.”
Is James Hansen fringe, SebastianH? Part of the “very small” subset who envision and endorse climate catastrophe due to CO2 emissions? Or would you agree he is mainstream for your side?
“Is James Hansen fringe…?” – Kenneth Richard
I’ll let you make up your own mind.
ASIDE to Dr. Hansen: without CO2 there are no veggies, Jim.
Personally, I think calling him “fringe” is way too kind.
There are probably close to zero skeptics who argue that there has not been some warming in most regions of the world since the end of the successive centennial-scale Little Ice Age solar minima periods (Sporer, Maunder, Dalton, 1400s to early 1900s) to the 20th and early 21st century Modern Grand Maximum of solar activity period, with the highest levels of solar activity since the last warm period (900-1200 C.E.).
But with so many reconstructions of past climates…
300+ graphs: https://notrickszone.com/global-warming-disputed-300-graphs/
…which show that modern warming is well within the range of what has occurred naturally in the past, with the past actually being (significantly) warmer during the Holocene Thermal Maximum, skeptics have justification to ask, So what? to the claims that we are in some unusual warming period.
According to the IPCC, global temperatures have risen at a rate of 0.05 C per decade since 1850. Compare that to the past, when the entire Northern Hemisphere warmed up by 4 or 5 degrees C in a matter of a few decades…and this abrupt natural warming occurred without CO2 changes.
Earlier in the Holocene, when CO2 levels hovered around 260 ppm, sea levels rose 30 times faster – 5 meters per century – than they have been rising since 1900.
Between 4,000 and 5,000 years ago, global sea levels were between 1 and 2 meters higher than they are now, indicating (assuming the models of thermal expansion = higher sea levels are correct) that the oceans were much, much warmer than they are now. And again, this occurred when CO2 concentrations were in the 260s ppm.
Do you deny all this, SebastianH? It’s substantiated in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. So what, exactly, is your reason for believing that modern warmth is actually unnatural when it’s still well within the range of natural variability?
“This planet far from being way too hot, is presently way too cold…” – Richard Verney
As seen in this graph, the normal avg temp for earth is 25DegC (others say 22).
We are currently well below that.
I can’t help think that the warmist con artists were counting on temperatures rising to more normal levels, so they could claim that was proof we had to submit to their agenda. They really can’t get much lower without a lot of harm being done.
Forgot to include this:
“Our current, warm, congenial Holocene interglacial has been the enabler of mankind’s civilisation for the last 10,000 years, spanning from mankind’s earliest farming to recent technology.
Viewing the Holocene interglacial is much more fruitful on a century by century and on a millennial perspective.
Each of the notable high points in the Holocene temperature record, (Holocene Climate Optimum – Minoan – Roman – Medieval – Modern), have been progressively colder than the previous high point.
The ice core record from Greenland for its first 7-8000 years, the early Holocene, shows, virtually flat temperatures, an average drop of only ~0.007 °C per millennium, including its high point known as the “climate optimum”.
“Temperatures going down, down, down
But the more recent Holocene, since a “tipping point” at around 1000BC (3000 years ago) has seen temperature fall at about 20 times that earlier rate at about 0.14 °C per millennium.”
It’s been about -0.2 C per millennium for the last 2,000 years…
Notice how the 20th century (it was warmer in the 1940s) has been but a tiny blip-anomaly on the overall trend. How anyone can look at a graph like this and think modern times are unprecedented or unusual or worrisome as far as warming goes is just so hard to understand.
Maybe they’re thrown off by the red coloration…because red is, you know, hot.
The evolutionary stages between aquatic to land-based fully air breathing animals appears to have happened relatively quickly – across maybe some 20my. Depending on nomenclature used, it’s datable at about between 360 – 350mya- across the so-called ‘Romer’s Gap’, long held until recently disproven as a perceived atmospheric oxygen depletion problem.
Apparently, not so: recently, five (2012 and later-kinda)sites from across Scotland within early Tournaisian strata demonstrate Romer’s Gap didn’t exist, at all. Our fleshy-finned shrinking Iapetus-Oceaned predecessors developed gill and lung breathing abilities, allowing the then radiation of all subsequent land-breathing vertebrates. Amniotes, too.
Great paper and good to see the late Stan Wood get some recognition:
[…] Read more at notrickszone.com […]
[…] Kenneth Richard, August 14, 2017 in […]
that graph is from the GISP2 site, not GRIP. And the GISP2 graph’s present is in the 19th century! Maybe you can find the GRIP graph on your own and find out by how much Greenland temperatures increased from back then.
P.S.: Claiming that catastrophic cooling will come any year now is different from AGW proponent claiming that the world will end if we don’t stop emitting CO2 tomorrow in what way? It is exactly the same extremism …”
Awww, that it ends in the mid 1800’s bothers you enough for you to ignore the long term cooling trend since The Minoan warm period,which is over 3,000 years ago.
You do this a lot,ignore most of the data, to zero in on a meaningless whine.
I never said anything about Catastrophic Cooling. The chart I presented doesn’t push it either. Trying to put words into my mouth again,Seb?
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