What follows is another paper to add to the list of 400 peer-reviewed papers published this year which show claims surrounding man-made global warming are in fact hyped up.
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated/edited by P Gosselin)
On July 4 in the journal Atmospheric and Climate Sciences an article by Maxim Ogurtsov, Markus Lindholm and Risto Jalkanen appeared and addressed an important issue. The warming of the last 150 years after the Little Ice Age is often gladly viewed as having 100% anthropogenic causes. Of course this makes little sense because the Little Ice Age was the coldest period of the last 10,000 years and was caused by natural factors such as solar weak phases and volcanic eruptions.
“IPCC makes a large mistake”
And when the sun again strengthens and volcanic eruptions remain at low levels, the earth warms up again. That there is an anthropogenic warming component of course should not be disputed. The warming of the last 150 years is due to a mix of natural and anthropogenic causes. Here the IPCC makes a large mistake when it assumes that the warming has been 100% anthropogenic.
In the study, Ogurtsov and fellow scientists compare the modern warming to the temperature history of the last 10,000 years. Here they find that there had been only a few similar warming phases when looking at the warming of the past 135 years. If one however considers that only half of that warming was natural, then similar warming phases occur on average every few centuries. The authors conclude that the natural component in the models must be taken into account much more. And conversely the role anthropogenic factors must be reduced correspo0ndingly so that a more accurate picture is attained when compared to the real temperature development.
On the Possible Contribution of Natural Climatic Fluctuations to the Global Warming of the Last 135 Years
A number of numerical experiments with artificial random signals (the second order autoregressive processes), which have important statistical pro- perties similar to that of the observed instrumental temperature (1850-2015), were carried out. The results show that in frame of the selected mathematical model the return period of climatic events, analogous to the current global warming (linear increase of temperature for 0.95˚C during the last 135 years) is 2849-5180 years (one event per 2849-5180 years). This means that global warming (GW) of the last 135 years can unlikely be fully explained by inherent oscillations of the climatic system. It was found however, that natural fluctuations of climate may appreciably contribute to the GW. The return period of climatic episodes with 0.5˚C warming during the 135 years (half of the observed GW) was less than 500 years. The result testifies that the role of external factors (emission of greenhouse gases, solar activity etc.) in the GW could be less than often presumed.”