Many new scientific papers affirm climate model results conflict with one another, diverge from observations, and aren’t fully rooted in established physics.
Image Source: Essex and Tsonis, 2018
Climate models are predicated on the assumption that greenhouse gases exert fundamental control on the Earth’s climate system. That’s why for decades it’s been predicted that disaster will befall the planet as a consequence of rising CO2 emissions.
Image Source: Associated Press (1989)
And yet contrary to how they are popularly portrayed, climate models do not fully employ the laws of physics in their representations (Essex and Tsonis, 2018). This is likely why climate model outputs are (a) often widely different from one another and (b) frequently diverge from real-world observations.
We Lack Understanding of Climate Mechanisms
In contrast with governmental (the United Nations’) manufactured framework of certainty, scientists are increasingly suggesting we have yet to adequately understand fundamental processes and mechanisms in the Earth’s climate system.
“[W]e can build and run complex models of the Earth system, but we do not have adequate enough understanding of the processes and mechanisms to be able to quantitatively evaluate the predictions and projections they produce, or to understand why different models give different answers.” (Collins et al. 2018)
“[C]limate changes in polar areas remain difficult to predict, which indicates that the underlying mechanisms of polar amplification remain uncertain and debatable.” (Ding et al., 2018)
Furthermore, because climate models aren’t subjected to the “hard” science standard of falsification, they are necessarily presented to the non-skeptical public as unfalsifiable. In other words, when climate models don’t agree with real-world observations, they aren’t assumed to be wrong, or worthy of disposal. Instead, they are suggested to merely need a little re-tuning.
The refusal to discard climate models that conflict with observations is apparently rooted in politics. Kundzewicz et al. (2018) point out that the “hard” science standard that says results should be quantitatively validated with a measured degree of certainty before formulating policy initiatives is deemed “unrealistic and counterproductive” today. That’s why climate modeling thrives in the modern “soft” political world – a realm where the rigors of observation and falsification — the scientific method — need not apply.
“[I]n the past, science was assumed to provide ‘hard’ results in quantitative form, in contrast to ‘soft’ determinants of politics, that were interest-driven and value-laden. Yet, the traditional assumption of the certainty of scientific information is now recognized as unrealistic and counterproductive.” (Kundzewicz et al., 2018)
Climate Models Don’t Agree With Reality
Problematically, even when they are re-tuned, climate models still yield widely divergent outputs both from one another and compared to observational evidence.
Many new scientific papers have been published in recent months that document the failure of climate models to simulate the Earth’s climate. A sampling of 10 peer-reviewed papers from 2018 are highlighted below.
In several cases, scientists have reported that none of the modern-day climate model results are consistent with real-world observations. In some cases the models yield opposite results (i.e., warming instead of cooling, rising instead of falling, etc.).
It is increasingly being recognized that climate models “not only don’t agree with each other when it comes to dynamics, they also don’t agree with reality” (Essex and Tsonis, 2018).