New Science: A Main Tenet Of Anthropogenic Global Warming Has Been Falsified By Observations

Climate models postulate that increasing CO2 concentrations will intensify the Earth’s water cycle. This intensification is believed to eventually result in dangerous (3°C and up) global warming. Observational evidence has thus far falsified these IPCC-endorsed claims.

Image Source: IPCC WG1

According to climate models, water vapor and precipitation trends were supposed to have been enhanced as a consequence of rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

And yet after compiling decades of observational and evidence, it has been determined there has been no detectable global-scale human influence on the Earth’s hydrological cycle.

Image Source(s): Miralles et al., 2013 and Vonder Harr et al., 2012

There have been many new scientific papers published that document the observed lack of any detectable global trends in the Earth’s hydrological cycle during the last century, or since anthropogenic CO2 emissions began rising dramatically.

Without water vapor-induced temperature amplification, the model-based consequence of doubling CO2 concentrations to 560 ppm (from the pre-industrial 280 ppm value) is a warming of just over 1°C.  This temperature change is neither dangerous or even concerning.

Simply put, the lack of supporting evidence for an anthropogenic intensification of the hydrological cycle effectively decimates a cornerstone of the dangerous anthropogenic global warming narrative.

No AGW Changes To Hydrological Cycle Detectable

Nguyen et al., 2018     

Little dispute surrounds the observed global temperature changes over the past decades. As a result, there is widespread agreement that a corresponding response in the global hydrologic cycle must exist. However, exactly how such a response manifests remains unsettled. Here we use a unique recently developed long-term satellite-based record to assess changes in precipitation across spatial scales. … Our results show opposing trends at different scales, highlighting the importance of spatial scale in trend analysis. Furthermore, while the increasing global temperature trend is apparent in observations, the same cannot be said for the global precipitation trend according to the high-resolution dataset, PERSIANN-CDR, used in this study.”
“Figure 2 shows the changes in precipitation volume over oceans and continents during the past 3 decades. As shown in Figs. 2b and 2c, fluctuations are present in the total amount of precipitation that has fallen over land and ocean; however, no significant long-term volumetric change is observed for either case.”
“As shown, the warm temperate regions in North America and East Asia, as well as the equatorial regions in Africa, have been experiencing statistically significant negative trends in their mean annual precipitation. On the contrary, arid regions over Africa are observing a positive precipitation trend. In general, warm temperate climate regions have decreasing trends while arid and polar climate regions have increasing trends in precipitation. Africa shows the clearest precipitation trends according to climate zones, where arid regions have a significant increase and the equatorial region has a significant decreasing trend. … Figure 5 shows the precipitation trends over 237 global major basins. Globally, 20 basins have significant increasing trends and 20 basins have significant decreasing trends in precipitation.”
The take-home message from our study using the new 33+ years [1983-2015] of high-resolution global precipitation dataset is that there seems not to be any detectable and significant positive trends in the amount of global precipitation due to the now well-established increasing global temperature. While there are regional trends, there is no evidence of increase in precipitation at the global scale in response to the observed global warrming.”

    Tabari and Willems, 2018

[C]limate change results are highly model dependent so that even opposite climate change signals may be achieved from different types of climate models. This is mainly due to the fact that climate models with different resolutions and physics provide different representations of surface heterogeneities and mesoscale climatological structures. … We consider a climate change signal to be robust where at least 70% of the models agree on the direction of change. … In contrast to the projected increase in extreme precipitation, there is no robust change in precipitation totals on the global scale.”

Shi et al., 2018

“Here, we average four tree-ring width chronologies from the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) over their common intervals and reconstruct the variability in regional relative humidity (RH) from the previous May to the current March over 1751–2005. In contrast to the summer drying associated with centennial-scale warming and the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon, our RH [relative humidity] reconstruction shows no significant centennial trend from the 1820s through the 2000s.”

Silva Junior et al., 2018

“The aim of this study was to analyse spatiotemporal trends in rainfall along the Brazilian Legal Amazon between 1998 and 2015. … No evidence of significant rainfall trends (p ≤ 0.05) for annual or monthly (except for September, which showed a significant negative trend) averages was found. … The annual pixel-by-pixel analysis showed that 92.3% of the Brazilian Amazon had no rainfall trend during the period analysed, 4.2% had significant negative trends (p ≤ 0.05), and another 3.5% had significant positive trends (p ≤ 0.05).”

  Chen et al., 2018

The confidence for drought changes over large sections of the world remains low [Field et al., 2012, p. 171]. Greve et al. [2014] and Sheffield et al., [2012] confirmed and further reinforced such low confidence, showing that over much of the global continents, robust dryness tendencies failed to be detected. Thus, the AR5 projections [Stocker et al., 2013, p. 20] that “the contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase” (summarized as a “dry gets drier” pattern) does not emerge as a robust feature in observational records, especially after adjusting the definition of dry and wet areas [Greve and Seneviratne, 2015].”

Kendon et al., 2018     

[T]he attribution of rainfall trends to human influence on local and regional scales is not yet possible (Sarojini et al., 2016).”

Dobrovolný et al., 2018

The new MJJ precipitation reconstruction is restricted to inter-annual and inter-decadal variability, which is in line with our understanding of natural precipitation variability. Reconstruction reveals two long periods of low precipitation variability, in the 13th–14th centuries and 1630s–1850s. It also demonstrates that precipitation anomalies of larger amplitude and longer duration occurred in the earlier part of the last millennium than those found in the instrumental period. Negative trends in soil moisture content and gradual changes in annual precipitation distribution leading to higher extremity of precipitation regime may be responsible for the lower sensitivity of oaks to precipitation after the 1980s. The new reconstruction does not indicate any exceptional recent decline in MJJ precipitation.”

 Depietri and MacPhearson, 2018

Also not significant are the trends in extreme precipitation (beyond 1.75 in. and beyond 3.5 in.) with significant inter-annual and interdecadal variability.”

Mangini et al., 2018

“The main objective of this paper is to detect the evidence of statistically significant flood trends across Europe using a high spatial resolution dataset. … Anticipated changes in flood frequency and magnitude due to enhanced greenhouse forcing are not generally evident at this time over large portions of the United States for several different measures of flood flows. … Thus, similarly to the main findings of Archfield et al. (2016) for the US, the picture of flood change in Europe is strongly heterogeneous and no general statements about uniform trends across the entire continent can be made.”

Zheng et al., 2018     

For the extreme drought and flood events in total, more frequent of them occurred in the 1770s and 1790s, 1870s–1880s, 1900s–1920s and 1960s, among which the 1790s witnessed the highest frequency of extreme drought and flood events totally.”

Schedel, Jr. and Schedel, 2018

Flood events on the U.S. East Coast are not more severe or frequent than in the past.”

Valdés-Manzanilla, 2018

“This study presents a chronology of historical and measured flood events in the Papaloapan River basin of Mexico during 450 years. Twenty-eight historical floods were recorded during the period 1550–1948 [7 per century] on this river and one flood event (1969) in the instrumental era (1949–2000) [2 per century], of which 14 were extraordinary floods and only 15 were catastrophic ones. There were several flood-rich decades during 1860–1870, 1880–1890, 1920–1930 and 1940–1950.”

Zhao et al., 2018

Verdon-Kidd et al., 2017

Overall, the inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of rainfall and runoff observed in the modern record (Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 22% for rainfall, 42% for runoff) is similar to the variability experienced over the last 500 years (CV of 21% for rainfall and 36% for runoff). However, the modern period is wetter on average than the pre-instrumental (13% higher for rainfall and 23% higher for runoff). Figure 9 also shows that the reconstructions contain a number of individual years (both wet and dry) of greater magnitude than what has been recorded in the instrumental record.”

Kostyakova et al., 2017

“A nested July–June precipitation reconstruction for the period AD 1777–2012 was developed from multi-century tree-ring records of Pinus sylvestris L. (Scots pine) for the Republic of Khakassia in Siberia, Russia. … The longest reconstructed dry period, defined as consecutive years with less than 25th percentile of observed July–June precipitation, was 3 years (1861–1863)There was no significant difference in the number dry and wet periods during the 236 years of the reconstructed precipitation.”

Conroy et al., 2017

20th century precipitation variability in southern Tibet falls within the range of natural variability in the last 4100 yr, and does not show a clear trend of increasing precipitation as projected by models. Instead, it appears that poorly understood multidecadal to centennial internal modes of monsoon variability remained influential throughout the last 4100 yr. … Until we have a predictive understanding of multidecade to multi-century variability in the Asian monsoon system, it would be wise to consider the risk of prolonged periods of anomalously dry and wet monsoon conditions to be substantial (Ault et al., 2014). Such variability may also explain why the predicted anthropogenic increase in Asian monsoon precipitation is not widely observed.”

Clarke et al., 2017

23 responses to “New Science: A Main Tenet Of Anthropogenic Global Warming Has Been Falsified By Observations”

  1. rah

    The warmth due to increased water vapor is most evident at the poles and especially the Artic. According to Joe Bastardi this increased water vapor is a result primarily of the last strong El Nino. In my neck of the woods, in north central Indiana, the only appreciable effect on temperature was significantly higher night time lows during the height of the summer from late June through July. During a typical summer you’ll find me and my neighbor solving the worlds problems over an adult beverage or two around a fire in one of our fire pits. This summer that activity was cut down considerably because so many nights were just to warm to enjoy a fire.

  2. Ron Clutz

    Thanks for compiling this set of papers, showing another AGW supposition unsupported by empirical data. One favorite chart displaying this lack of hydrology effect comes from John Christy’s 2016 US House Subcommittee hearing:

    The complete testimony is here:

  3. Skeptik
  4. tom0mason

    To me the IPCC line “A significant part of this uncertainty range arises from our limited knowledge of clouds and their interaction with radiation.” says the most. And in fact they underplays their ignorance of how this planet’s damp atmosphere behaves. Yet despite this very little money goes into researching exactly how our clouds operate — empirical evidence for all type of cloud, how and why they appear, their evolution, how they dissipate, how energy exchanges are manifested within and about them. The UN-IPCC’s entire argument is founded on this basic ignorance, their ‘science’ is incomplete and so it’s irrational. Their CO2 supposition is pure baloney with zero credibility or evidence of it’s operation in chaotic nature our climate system.

    However the evidence of this planet’s climate history, and credible proxy derived evidence of variation CO2 levels show that these CO2 variations do not drive our climate but are (with other things like oceanic outgassing, seismic events, etc.) just an effect of it.

    1. rah

      The only way they would get more money to study clouds is if they declared that man were the cause of them.

    2. tom0mason

      Cloud cover varies as shown by NASA GISS shows, so why has it taken a dive and never recovered after the 1990s?

  5. Bitter&twisted

    Climate scientists have finally managed to show that the “science is settled”.
    In that there is no such thing as dangerous climate change, caused by increased CO2.
    It is now time to call a halt to “green” politics and the ruinous renewable energy scam.
    Happy New Year😁

  6. sasquatch

    1649 “The British Parliament invoked a law that made it a crime, punishable by burning at the stake, to forecast the weather.”

    Living can be dangerous business when you innocently make a foolish attempt to manipulate the weather, forecast, which could be construed as using witchcraft to change the weather. lol

    You just never know what someone could be up to, so you have to be extra careful at all times.

    It was smack dab in the middle of the LIA, so forecasting weather probably meant more bad news by then, the tolerance for bad weather had reached all-time lows.

    Wouldn’t it be analogous to suggesting to jail AGW deniers?

    Sort of in the save vein of thought.

    You can’t be a skeptic, if you doubt climate change due to the use of fossil fuels and all of the pesky carbon emissions, you are eligible for an extended stay at a graybar hotel, a re-education camp, have to solve problems with a dose of harsh reality behind bars.

    Just as looney as the British Parliament legalizing the use of the death penalty for anybody telling you it’s going to be colder than hades one day next week.

    When the lunatics are in charge of the asylum, expect bedlam.

    Climate Change Alarmists are in denial of their lunacy.

    Any kind of denial is a punishable offence.

    Right now, here in the nascent stages of the Anthropocene epoch, it is minus fourteen below zero F heading for -24 F by 6am.

    I demand that everybody in the here and now begin to burn more coal and oil to heat up the planet even more.

    I want and demand more Anthropogenic Global Warming NOW, dammit.

    At -24 F, don’t worry, people are staying warm burning oil and coal, can’t be denied, it is going to happen night and day, day after day, fossil fuel consumption is not going to stop just because some more CO2 gas is accumulating in the atmosphere.

    Even if you don’t use fossil fuels, you are not going to change the results in a century or two all that much.

    You definitely want to stay alive while you can fog a mirror, using fossil fuels in copious amounts can prevent freezing to death in the dead of winter.

    You are a complete moron if you can’t deal with the reality of fossil fuel consumption by people. You are in voluntary denial.

    It is not rocket medicine.

    Fossil fuels are necessary for civilization to function.

    When the Rainbow Warrior needs fuel, what is the first choice?

    Wind? Just needs a mast and sails.

    The Sun? Well, yeah, the sun helps, the sun will generate a little wind so you can sail with no fossil fuels at all.

    Heat from the sun helps a lot, not just some.

    It is a one hundred percent guarantee that the Rainbow Warrior will pull up to the fueling dock and fill up with bunker fuel so the boat not only can float, but move as well.

    “The ship has a fuel capacity of 110,000l, fresh water capacity of 32,000l and an electric drive system (10kt on only 300kW). It has 30 berths.”

    That’s the idea, the ship is useless if it just sits there.

    Nice to have the sun do the work it does, warms the air, warms the water, warms the earth beneath your feet.

    On a hot day in summer, the sun’s rays pack a punch. On a black dirt field, the sun bears down on the earth, the ground gets so hot, your bare feet can’t stand the heat, the soil has been warmed more than you can stand with no shoes on your feet.

    You can take that to the bank. The sun’s energy deposits more than just light, the sun’s energy does translate to money, sustenance, economics, food and shelter.

    You won’t have oil without the sun’s energy and the sun’s energy also became coal. The sun is at work and its energy does undergo a transformation to the benefit of mankind.

    Humans use the earth’s resources to continue to live and survive.

    How and what gets done depends on how much they know. If you can construct what’s been built, you know they have a great deal of intelligence. How the resources are allocated and distributed is always a bone of contention.

    Regardless of what is done to survive, the work to do it all has to be done. What is done to get it all done is sometimes not the thing to do.

    It is vague and nebulous from one demographic change to the next, yet always done the best people can. For people, if it can be done, it’ll most likely get done. The Three Gorges Dam is one of many that is a testament to what can be accomplished.

    The International Space Station is more than just hardware. It’s been flying through space and it keeps on trucking, space flight is not an easy job.

    Humans have accumulated knowledge for a hundred thousand years, they can do almost anything, it seems.

    Even if it is war, it is a part of life and can’t be denied. Looks like a permanent state of war with what is going on nowadays. Too bad, something nobody wants at all, yet it still happens. Inexplicable to most, nobody understands, have to raise tolerances, which might be impossible. Not everybody is going to see eye to eye.

    Must be human nature.

    The sun is the source of it all.

    Without the sun, the earth is toast.

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