As winter progresses through January and heads into February, the latest forecast tells us one thing: Global warming is not putting an end to brutal cold winter conditions like experts said it would in the early 2000s.
At his Weatherbell Analytics Saturday Summary yesterday, meteorologist Joe Bastardi pretty much gave his seal of approval on the latest longer-term NCEP forecast for North America and Europe. Bastardi has long said that the current winter would turn out to be “severe”.
It fits with the pattern we were thinking would evolve for this winter.”
Well, the winter party is about to start in earnest. What follows is the NCEP CFS forecast temperature anomaly for North America for the next 45 days:
Image cropped from Weatherbell Saturday Summary.
Brutal cold by end of January
For the end of January, the situation looks especially brutal, as temperatures are expected to plummet to some 15°C below normal across wide areas of the Midwest and Canada:
Image cropped from Weatherbell Saturday Summary.
Snow is also forecast “to plaster” the Northeast and fall across all 48 states over the next 15 days.
Pattern change in Europe
In Europe the story for the end of January is similar, where large parts of Europe will be caught in the deep freeze:
Image cropped from Weatherbell Saturday Summary.
Also snow is expected to fall across Europe over the coming weeks, with the weather pattern having flipped from one of milder westerly winds to one with colder northerly and easterly winds.
Expect alarmist climate scientists to launch another disinformation campaign, where they will blame warming for all the cold weather we will have been experiencing.
Arctic sea ice stable more than 10 years
Sea ice volume is also creeping towards the normal levels, as shown by Japanese blogger Kirye:
Chances are good that Arctic ice volume will rise above normal, and thus keeping the more-than-one-decade-long trend of no ice melt alive and well.
As Joe points out, Arctic temperatures have been dropping and are now close to the mean value.
“Expect alarmist climate scientists to launch another disinformation campaign, where they will blame warming for all the cold weather we will have been experiencing.”
It is the strategy:
“The Social Simulation of the Public Perception of Weather Events and their Effect upon the Development of Belief in Anthropogenic Climate Change” Dennis Bray and Simon Shackley, September 2004. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
“To endorse policy change people must ‘believe’ that global warming will become a reality some time in the future.
“Only the experience of positive temperature anomalies will be registered as indication of change if the issue is framed as global warming.”
“Both positive and negative temperature anomalies will be registered in experience as indication of change if the issue is framed as climate change.”
“We propose that in those countries where climate change has become the predominant popular term for the phenomenon, unseasonably cold temperatures, for example, are also interpreted to reflect climate change/global warming.”
Easy, black is white, cold is hot.
“Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them.”
― George Orwell, 1984
Mass Hypnosis
“Hey, you in the back row. Quit clowning around when we’re trying to brainwash you!”
Joe has been on it for some time now, it’s just that the models have finally caught up with weatherbell. In that same Saturday summary Joe says he expects that the Continental US and Europe will set new records for this century so far for the number of heating degree days during the period January 15th through March 14th. IOW that period will be colder in those places than it has been so far this century.
Joe also predicts that the alarmists will start to once again explain how global warming is causing so much cold and that others will start saying this winter is evidence that we’re heading into another LIA. Joe has made it clear he finds the claims from both of those camps to be funny. So do I. And so I’ll have the popcorn ready to watch the show.
Meanwhile here in central Indiana I will once again have to go out and shovel some global warming off my deck. Not as much as last time. They got the forecast for my area wrong. We got much more freezing rain than they predicted and less snow. Road conditions absolutely suck! Lights flickered a couple of times last night in the brisk winds that came after the icing but thankfully I didn’t have to break out the generator. Pretty tough on some trees though.
I believe Joe over any model out there.
I agree whole heartedly and would add that your statement goes for hurricane forecasting also.
I make the trek from FL to IN periodically, and I know how cold it can get. Last thing we would want would be for the warmists to succeed in cooling the earth. Fortunately they can’t. Unfortunately, they can impoverish us and screw up our infrastructure badly enough to make any cooling harder to deal with.
Hang in there. Pretty soon it’ll be too hot. Indiana is funny that way, often too cold in the winter and too hot in the summer. Beautiful country though, when you get into the rural areas.
Right now it is just indescribable. I just got back from a little trip to the store. The sun is shining and everything is covered in ice. Looking across the incrusted fields at the woods in the back ground with the sun glowing behind makes it look like everything is encrusted in diamonds.
Why can’t people just enjoy the wonders natures God brings us without tagging such wonders with some disaster line like the dreaded “polar vortex”? Absorb and enjoy the wonder of it all and how really lucky we are to have an island in the vast expanse of the Universe that offers so much.
Works for me. //:o)
Did you have clear skies in Germany for the eclipse of the “super moon”?
Jb is a joke. He entered a winter forecast Washington Post contest in September. He pumped cold forecasts all through December even though it was one of the warmest on record. If you know this guy at all you will know he’s heavily biased once he gets an idea in his head. For this reason his forecasts are not to be trusted.
His forecast was for colder than normal in the Eastern portion of the US, with Europe getting cold as well. He even said that December could be expected to warm briefly, before the deep cold set in. That’s what has happened, contrary to what you are saying. I guess you were counting on people not knowing what he’s been saying all along?
Really Li I think your the one trying to joke here.
Li, what’s your reference? The best I can find is a review done in October 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/29/forecasters-private-sector-strongly-favor-snowy-winter-washington/
That makes no reference to a contest, nor to December temps, just to overall winter info, e.g.:
Joe Bastardi, chief forecaster for WeatherBell Analytics, shared similar ideas to the other forecasters in his outlook. He concluded that the upcoming winter could resemble those of 2002-03 and 2009-10, which both featured blockbuster snowstorms in Washington.
…
Joe Bastardi, WeatherBell:
Snowfall prediction: 25 inches in Washington, 34 inches at Dulles
Temperature forecast: Colder than average
Joe has been very consistent with WeatherBell’s forecast in September that the meteorological winter (DJF) will be several degrees colder than average in the American southeast.
Sorry, Li, but obviously you have not been listening to JB. If you had, you wouldn’t write such aggressive, uninformed comments. The winter has progressed just as JB predicted. You’re behaving dishonorably.
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