and P. Gosselin
A look at the real observed data on polar sea ice shows that the situation has been surprisingly stable for more than one decade, now, despite the cult-like doomsday prophecies that much more ice would be gone by now.
For the climate change cultists who have been banking on climate system collapse and a rescue by global socialists, these are indeed depressing times.
Arctic sea ice volume stable 12 years
What really has been frustrating the climate alarmists is the Arctic, which many “experts” promised 10 years ago that the late summer Arctic ice would be gone by now. What follows is a chart of the data from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) that shows that nothing of the sort is happening.
Data source: DMI
As we can see, Arctic sea ice volume maximum, which occurs in early spring, still reaches the levels seen 10 years ago. Moreover the all-important summer minimum — considered a “tipping point” by doomsday climate alarmists — is even higher than it was 10 years ago. The linear trend for sea ice volume has stood steady for 12 years.
Climate doomsday predictions cultish, fraud
So it’s little wonder climate alarmists keep pushing back the goal posts, which they’ve been doing now for 30 years. If there is one thing that mankind should have learned by now while on the slippery slope of civilization is that all the prophesies of doomsday have been wrong and that latest one – climate breakdown – will be no different.
There is no evidence showing that this latest end-of world climate prophecy is the one that is going to turn out to be true. In fact, this one is pathetically easy to see through and realize it’s Smollet-quality science.
Today’s Arctic sea ice level is nothing extraordinary
Doomsday climate alarmists will now insist that only 12 years of data are not enough and that we must look back 40 years. They will accuse us of cherry-picking and concealing inconvenient data. The truth, they say, is that Arctic ice is in fact dwindling rapidly, and what we’ve been seeing for the last 10 years is only a temporary pause. There’s some merit to that argument, but 40 years is also too limited. Lets us go back to the start of the 20th century and look at overall Arctic sea ice extent:
Chart by Alekseev et al, 2016. Comments and rough linear trendlines added by NTZ.
The aforementioned chart shows there is nothing unusual about today’s sea ice extent. It’s all happened before.
Models were wrong for the last 12 years
Plotted Arctic minimum sea ice extent data from the Japan Meteorology Agency (JMA) show no declining trend since 2007 and thus contradict the earlier projections made by models:
Chart by Kirye. Data source: JMA.
If models were unable to get even the first 12 years correct, what performance should one expect even further out into the future?
Antarctic ice still showing robust longer-term GROWTH trend
Four years ago, global warming cultists avoided discussion over Antarctic sea ice like the plague. This was because also Antarctic sea ice had totally contradicted the model forecasts and embarrassed the climate scientists. The trend had shown robust sea ice growth since 1979.
But recently the alarmists have seen some possible shimmers of doomsday hope from Antarctica as the sea ice extent there suddenly fell sharply after decades of (unexpected) steady growth:
However, three or four years of data mean very little on climate scales. The overall Antarctic trend remains one of growth.
More natural than man-made
And even if the trend turned downward over the coming decades, it only would prove a warming Antarctic sea and say nothing about the real cause.
What is becoming ever clearer is that many powerful natural factors are indeed at play and that man’s impact is far less than the global warming doomsday cultists like to insist it is.