By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P. Gosselin)
Have you noticed it too?
Over the last years it’s been climate change that is to blame for everything. Whether it’s storming outside or snowing, whether it’s not storming or not snowing, whether it’s thunderstorming with a lot of rain, or if it’s dry: everything is said to be climate change. What kind of weather would not show climate change? Any deviation from the mean is now a sign of climate change?
There are some who oppose this logic.
Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann is a shining example. On Twitter, he recently got peppered with accusations that he’s supplying the “climate deniers” with ammunition.
Carbon has made an immense contribution
This article could show the opposite because we too are convinced that mankind is changing the climate, and the use of coal, gas and oil in the entire value chain of industrial society has brought it about. On the other hand, mankind would not be where it is today without the positive effects of carbon in human nutrition, energy supply, mobility, poverty alleviation, the fight against disease with medicines and many other achievements that we owe to the combined efforts of generations before us.
And it will take some effort to get the effects of our actions under control by about 2100. Any earlier date for an Armageddon is fiction, serious science agrees.
Task for a century, not a legislative period
We would like to refer once again to what we derived in July 2017: How high can the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increase in order not to surpass the 2°C target: around 600 ppm? Assuming current (2017) 407 ppm CO2 and a current average growth of 2.11 ppm per year, the 600 ppm would be reached in 2108. Of course it would be necessary to reduce global CO2 emissions to near zero by the end of this century – a task for three global generations and not for three German legislative periods.
Desperate activists seizing upon every anomaly
Activists don’t see it that way. They announce the checkered flag will be waving for mankind in just 12 years.
But it’s difficult to justify this, so they try to take advantage of any weather. For example, it can get warm in Finland when the wind blows from the south in summer. This shouldn’t be surprising given the high solar radiation, but the activists now hype it up to turn the weather into climate. It is quite easy to calculate how many days the daily maximum temperature there exceeded 26°C.
The number of days over all of Finland with a maximum temperature of over 26°C. Data source: E-OBS (KNMI)
It’s easy to see that warmth over Finland happens every now and then and that real conclusions cannot be drawn. There is no reason to panic about hot Finnish days.
No evidence of anthropogenic influence on cyclones
Another dubious claim that is often made is that climate change is causing more / stronger tropical storms such as hurricanes (in the Atlantic) and typhoons (in the Pacific). In recent years, we’ve seen a number of articles of this type whenever there’s been a tropical storm. A simple thermodynamic conclusion gets drawn: Warmer water contains more energy and makes storms worse.
Yet, a recent study by world-leading researchers on this topic makes it clear that it is not so easy. They find many uncertainties, and in particular that Atlantic hurricanes are not attributable to climate change, not even the associated extreme precipitation:
To date, there is no convincing evidence of a detectable anthropogenic influence on hurricane precipitation rates,…”
No trend in German precipitation
Since 2019 could be a rather active hurricane season, we have tobe prepared that climate change will be blamed by activists. But this conclusion, according to science, is not justified. It’s simple scaremongering! But we all know Greta Thunberg’s call: We want panic!
Also often reported: Forest fires in this country [Germany] are largely due to the “climate crisis”. Forest fires are the result of drought. Yet, it is not the heat that is to blame, but rather the lack of precipitation. And what about summer in Germany?
Summer precipitation in Germany since 1880. Source.
The DWD German Weather service notes: no trend has been found.
Why are they lying?
It was unusually dry last year, so yes there were more forest fires. All those who exploit a weather event for their agenda have to ask themselves: What kind of agenda is this for which you have to lie so much?