The weather sensitivity of activists
By Frank Bosse and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(Translated/edited by P. Gosselin)
Have you noticed it too?
Over the last years it’s been climate change that is to blame for everything. Whether it’s storming outside or snowing, whether it’s not storming or not snowing, whether it’s thunderstorming with a lot of rain, or if it’s dry: everything is said to be climate change. What kind of weather would not show climate change? Any deviation from the mean is now a sign of climate change?
There are some who oppose this logic.
Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann is a shining example. On Twitter, he recently got peppered with accusations that he’s supplying the “climate deniers” with ammunition.
Carbon has made an immense contribution
This article could show the opposite because we too are convinced that mankind is changing the climate, and the use of coal, gas and oil in the entire value chain of industrial society has brought it about. On the other hand, mankind would not be where it is today without the positive effects of carbon in human nutrition, energy supply, mobility, poverty alleviation, the fight against disease with medicines and many other achievements that we owe to the combined efforts of generations before us.
And it will take some effort to get the effects of our actions under control by about 2100. Any earlier date for an Armageddon is fiction, serious science agrees.
Task for a century, not a legislative period
We would like to refer once again to what we derived in July 2017: How high can the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere increase in order not to surpass the 2°C target: around 600 ppm? Assuming current (2017) 407 ppm CO2 and a current average growth of 2.11 ppm per year, the 600 ppm would be reached in 2108. Of course it would be necessary to reduce global CO2 emissions to near zero by the end of this century – a task for three global generations and not for three German legislative periods.
Desperate activists seizing upon every anomaly
Activists don’t see it that way. They announce the checkered flag will be waving for mankind in just 12 years.
But it’s difficult to justify this, so they try to take advantage of any weather. For example, it can get warm in Finland when the wind blows from the south in summer. This shouldn’t be surprising given the high solar radiation, but the activists now hype it up to turn the weather into climate. It is quite easy to calculate how many days the daily maximum temperature there exceeded 26°C.
The number of days over all of Finland with a maximum temperature of over 26°C. Data source: E-OBS (KNMI)
It’s easy to see that warmth over Finland happens every now and then and that real conclusions cannot be drawn. There is no reason to panic about hot Finnish days.
No evidence of anthropogenic influence on cyclones
Another dubious claim that is often made is that climate change is causing more / stronger tropical storms such as hurricanes (in the Atlantic) and typhoons (in the Pacific). In recent years, we’ve seen a number of articles of this type whenever there’s been a tropical storm. A simple thermodynamic conclusion gets drawn: Warmer water contains more energy and makes storms worse.
Yet, a recent study by world-leading researchers on this topic makes it clear that it is not so easy. They find many uncertainties, and in particular that Atlantic hurricanes are not attributable to climate change, not even the associated extreme precipitation:
To date, there is no convincing evidence of a detectable anthropogenic influence on hurricane precipitation rates,…”
No trend in German precipitation
Since 2019 could be a rather active hurricane season, we have tobe prepared that climate change will be blamed by activists. But this conclusion, according to science, is not justified. It’s simple scaremongering! But we all know Greta Thunberg’s call: We want panic!
Also often reported: Forest fires in this country [Germany] are largely due to the “climate crisis”. Forest fires are the result of drought. Yet, it is not the heat that is to blame, but rather the lack of precipitation. And what about summer in Germany?
Summer precipitation in Germany since 1880. Source.
The DWD German Weather service notes: no trend has been found.
Why are they lying?
It was unusually dry last year, so yes there were more forest fires. All those who exploit a weather event for their agenda have to ask themselves: What kind of agenda is this for which you have to lie so much?
10 responses to “German Prof. Writes Activists Have Warped Climate Perception, Why Does Climate Agenda “Lie So Much”?”
“Assuming current (2017) 407 ppm CO2 and a current average growth of 2.11 ppm per year, the 600 ppm would be reached in 2108. Of course it would be necessary to reduce global CO2 emissions to near zero by the end of this century – a task for three global generations and not for three German legislative periods.”
Although I agree with the author that there is no crises to address I must point out that another metric that is not changed by our CO2 emissions is atmospheric CO2 (https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/19/co2responsiveness/).
If we cannot measure our effect on the atmosphere we will never be able to control the atmosphere by curtailing our emissions. I see Harde has a new paper out explaining why this is so (http://www.esjournal.org/article/161/10.11648.j.earth.20190803.13 )and Dr. Berry’s paper has been accepted for publishing (http://www.esjournal.org/article/161/10.11648.j.earth.20190803.13)
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Well if they do not lie so much they basically cancel themselves out of the boondoggles paying their way.
For the cAGW faithful and the IPCC charlatans, lies are needed when there is no evidence to support their suppositions.
Hurricanes, Typhoons, Tropical Cyclones are all storms in the same category: Tropical Cyclones. The scientific record shows variations in the solar wind to be culpable for the formation of Tropical Cyclones:
P Prikryl, L Nikitima, V Rinsin: Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the context of the solar-wind-magnetosphere-ionsphere-atmosphere coupling. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics. 2018.
Prikryl et al, Tropospheric weather influenced by solar wind through atmospheric vertical coupling downward control . Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2017
Prikryl et al. A link between high-speed solar wind streams and explosive extratropical cyclones. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2016
Hodges et al. The sun-hurricane connection: Diagnosing the solar impacts on hurricane frequency over the North Atlantic basin uing a space-time model, Natural Hazards 2014
They lie because they want the lies to come true and when the lies come true, they weren’t lying. Until the lies come true, the lies can be ignored until the lies become the truth, whatever that is.
Remember when Paul Ehrlich predicted that during the decade of the 80s there would be famine and millions in the US would die?
“Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.””
Guess Dr. Ehrlich got that one wrong. A prediction that didn’t come true and can’t really be ignored, nothing happened even close to the prediction.
Paul predicts an even more wild prediction.
“Paul Ehrlich warned in the May 1970 issue of Audubon that DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons “may have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945.” Ehrlich warned that Americans born since 1946…now had a life expectancy of only 49 years, and he predicted that if current patterns continued this expectancy would reach 42 years by 1980, when it might level out.”
I guess it has to get even more outrageous, works better that way. Paul Ehrlich wanted bodies stacked higher than Charles Manson wanted dead bodies stacked, as high as he could see is what Charles Manson said in an interview. Not good enough for Paul Ehrlich, millions are even better, more is not enough.
If you tell a lie often enough, people will begin to believe it. You can lie to all of the people all of the time, happens all of the time.
Sometimes, some of the people believe a lie all of the time, sometimes, all of the people believe a lie some of the time, but, eventually, not all of the people believe a lie all of the time. Call your bluff, as it were.
If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bulls#%+.
You sell the sizzle, not the steak.
You know how they lie all of the time.
Paul Ehrlich’s prediction didn’t amount to squat. What can you do or say? He made his bed, too bad, sucker. lol
Kind of embarrassing, no? Looking rather foolish if you predict 4 billion people will die in the late 20th Century and you are not even close. That would have been almost 90 percent of everyone alive in 1980. uff da
How much further away from reality do you have to be in order to wildly predict such nonsense? Far out, just plain out there in la la land, idiocracy nonpareil.
Arrogance and ignorance go hand in hand, Paul Ehrlich deserves two Nobel Prizes, one for each. lol
Highest recorded summer temps for all fifty states:
state record temps
25 states had record high temps during the Dust Bowl years, the 1930s.
The numbers don’t lie.
We all know what happened during those years, then the exodus from the Oklahoma farm to California. Appalachia to Chicago, the Great Depression caused a migration into populated regions. Wall Street traders gained new employment as pencil salesmen and apple vendors.
When it doesn’t rain, the cattle make it to the sales ring, crops don’t grow, people are forced to move, no means available to exist, all dried up and blown away.
Time to raise chickens and turkeys to make a go of it. Buy feed and pump the well when the wind blows. Keep a milk cow and plant a garden. Cut hay and feed what livestock you have. Plant a hundred acres of wheat and hope it grows. Checks bounced because the bank was broke.
You’re number fourteen thousand for the day
If you ain’t got that do re mi
You better go back to beautiful Texas…
“Things ain’t tough yet, I’ve seen one dog eat another.” – the words of an old timer conversing with young people during the Great Depression
We live in tumultuous times, however, life has never been better. Fossil fuels take us there every day.
Horses hauling humanure and trash along the streets of New York during the 1800s is where you will be. No diesel powered trash haulers keeping the streets free of trash and refuse. No municipal water system and sewer system, a fossil-free civilization will exist in a primitive state. You don’t want to go there.
Climate alarmists don’t want to know the truth, it hurts too much. Lies are much more comforting in their cAGW bubble. If you make up stuff all of the time, it becomes more credible, maybe not.
Energy must exist in order for human existence to take place. Makes the sun the number contributor to the madness. How fossil fuels got there in the first place.
Doesn’t matter how the energy is sourced, what form, trees, dung, coal, oil, doesn’t matter. As long as it is generated, as long as it can be usable, provide power to create efficiencies, the efficacy of fossil fuels cannot be ignored nor abandoned.
To do so will be done at humanity’s peril.
You don’t know what you’ve got ’til it’s gone. – Joni Mitchell
And that’s the truth.
Makes the sun the number contributor to the madness.
Makes the sun the number one contributor to the madness.
How it does and should read.
I do proofread, if I didn’t, my Titanic comment would have read ‘out to see’, but I did catch that one.
I don’t see all of the mistakes, although, I try to make corrections, not all are made.
Oh dear Pierre, so our Pope needs to find a good confessor, and soon.
Only this week his derangement syndrome is obvious. Presumably his latest nonsense was written for him by that arch lier from the Potsdam institute Herr Schellinhuber who wrote his global warming encyclical some time ago.
I am finding it more and more difficult to hang on to my faith when our Pontiff persists in telling blatant lies about the weather. Like the author I am puzzled as to the Popes motivation. It can only be proof of his extreme Marxist ideology and control by the globalist cabal led by Soros
They don’t lie.
They just does not want you to see.
Like asking a 16 Year old girl and she answer: Never in my life I have experienced the climate we are seeing today.
The select and want You to be ignorant.
Never before has the water been so warm in the Arctic or has it?
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