Climate Ambulance Chasers Glum: Pacific Tropical Storms Near Record Low… Hurricane Development Hampered

I’ve always wondered why alarmists blame storms on climate change, but then go totally silent when storms are absent. Just weather?

Yesterday at WeatherBELL Analytics Saturday Summary video, 40-year veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi focused on global tropical storm activity.

Western Pacific typhoon activity near record low

On the western Pacific front, Bastardi says: “Normally this time of the year we’ve had 5 typhoons; this year we’ve only had one. And since March first this has been an almost record breaking low activity in the western Pacific.”

Quieter than normal August outlook for hurricanes

Looking at the Atlantic hurricane zones, here we see natural factors at work hampering hurricane development. One of them is dust blowing off the horn of Africa. Here Bastardi believes this area will remain quiet through most of August.

Cropped here.

“Very very bearish” development conditions for hurricanes in the MDR

Another factor hampering hurricane formation in the main development region (MDR), Bastardi says, is the current Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern, which leads to “sinking” over the development region. Sea surface temperatures at the latitudes above the tropics are warm, and this helps to keep the lid down on hurricanes.

Dry conditions

In the tropical main development region (MDR), dry conditions are forecast for the next two weeks, and so hurricanes will have a tougher time developing. Joe Bastardi characterizes the conditions for hurricane development in the MDR as “very very bearish”, i.e. lower than normal development potential.

But the veteran meteorologist does warn that this doesn’t mean hurricanes won’t develop in the MDR. So we need to stay on the look out for “in-close development” where storms form just off the mainland.

All in all, good news so far – especially for the Atlantic – in terms of hurricane season intensity. Let’s hope it remains that way for the rest of the season.

10 responses to “Climate Ambulance Chasers Glum: Pacific Tropical Storms Near Record Low… Hurricane Development Hampered”

  1. Newminster

    Good news for Greta. I wouldn’t fancy my chances in a racing yacht in an Atlantic hurricane!

    1. Yonason

      Thunberg is an Aspie?

      I’m not so sure. While she does seem to have the “little professor” thing down, there are some red flags.

      One problem an Aspie has is fear of new situations, traveling, and CROWDS.

      Still, she could have Asperger’s. But, if so, she’s just not doing it right. //;O[

  2. rah

    Despite so far relatively quiet conditions in the Atlantic and the western Pacific regions, the Global ACE is still running at 108% of the average. Indian Ocean, S. Hemisphere, and Eastern/North Pacific account for this. The vast majority of the global ACE is due to the Indian Ocean running at 500% average YTD.

    Poor development potential in the MDR most likely to last for at least the rest of August. The typical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season is considered Sept 10th.

    Subsiding air over the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico and dropping SSTs in the Gulf all are working against development or strengthening of storms in those areas for the next couple of weeks also.

    So all in all it’s looking like the outlook for powerful tropical storm hitting N. America are pretty bleak for the next few weeks.

  3. Kurt in Switzerland

    Last sentence of 2nd to the last paragraph:

    Perhaps “…just OFF the mainland…” instead of “…just of the mainland…”

  4. Graeme No.3

    What? A shortage of disasters that can be blamed on AGW/ClimateChange etc.
    It’s a disaster!

    1. rah

      The travelling cherry picking crew of the AGW cult just focus on other places like Europe, Alaska, and Greenland. Any place at any time they think they can make weather look like it’s a result of a warming climate. And if all else fails they can fall back on their endlessly recycled stories of impending doom, like a portion of the Antarctic Western ice shelf getting ready to break off, which I have been reading about for about a decade now and yet hasn’t happened. Or some impending disaster for polar fauna like the Adelie penguin, polar bear, or like this year, reindeer. Their potential subjects to hype or lie about are endless in scope and breadth.

  5. Paul Aubrin

    If the trend goes on, hurricanes could become extinct in a few years. Isn’t there an UN agency to cope with the consequences of this terrible event.

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  7. Yonason

    More from Joe’s forecast for today.

    Not good news for warmist alarmists.

  8. Yonason

    I posted this last year…

    Speaking about hurricane frequency and intensity, NOAA scientist says “There’s no statistical change over a 130-year period.”

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