NOA, Solar Activity Suggest Early Winter For Europe… Outlook For October And November Colder Than Normal

Latest runs by the US NOAA weather agency show October and November being colder than normal. A negative NAO and low solar activity may be behind it. 

September is coming to an end and signs of autumn are everywhere. On everyone’s mind now is the question of what kind of winter to expect: bitter cold and white, or wet and mild?

The US weather agency NOAA has just put out its outlook for October and November. Its CFSv2 model foresees colder than normal temperatures for both October and November, from eastern Canada to Russia and from Africa to the Arctic.

Hat-tip: Schneefan.

Here’s the latest CFSv2 temperature anomaly outlook for October, via Meteociel:

Chart: Meteociel CFSv2

Of course we need to be wary when it comes to the accuracy of these long-term forecasts. Yet, October is right ahead and forecasters should at least have a pretty good idea of how the month will end up. For the time being the weather outlook for first 14 days does look to be on the cool side. But beyond October 15, things do get far more speculative.

Here’s the NOAA CFSv2 for November:

Chart: Meteociel CFSv2

Above for November see that the cold anomalies are projected to spread across Europe, which would mean an early winter start over Europe.

NAO and solar activity

Other reasons why Europe’s coming winter may be a cold one are North Atlantic patterns and solar activity. Europe’s winters are largely dependent on the prevailing North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Recently this index has swung to the negative mode. If this persists then, Europe likely will find itself shivering for awhile.

NAO currently negative. Chart: NOAA.

Looking at the NAO since 1950:

Chart: NOAA.

In the 1950s and 10960s, Europe experienced a number of harsh winters. Over the past 8 years, the NAO has been often very positive, meaning milder European winters, which has been the case for that period.

A number of studies have shown that the NAO tends to go negative in the wintertime during periods of low solar activity, which we are now experiencing. Read here, here and here.

Global warming causes both warm and cold!

But for the media and alarmists, if the NOAA projected temperature anomalies for the next two months had been projected to be warm, then manmade global warming would be to blame. And if the temperatures do in fact later come in below average, then that too will be because of global warming-induced weather pattern changes. Such is the “science” of global warming.

7 responses to “NOA, Solar Activity Suggest Early Winter For Europe… Outlook For October And November Colder Than Normal”

  1. Noel Herron

    So Prof Zharkova got it just about right!

  2. Climate Heretic

    Global cooling causes both warm and cold!

    Climate Heretic

  3. tom0mason

    One of the reasons for the big panic by the cAGW advocates, all the trash the MSM is currently reporting, the big push by the UN to get evermore scary reports out, is that with the coming cold period (from now and for 3-5 years hence) will make people see that all this ‘Global Warming’ bunkum is just that — BUNKUM.

    The world of ‘settled science’ is about to get a massive reset as this colder period make Westerners’ lives that much harder. Napoleon and Hitler were defeated in part by the weather, hopefully that is the fate of all these noisy ‘holier-than-thou’ cAGW advocates and their stupid propaganda.

    And after the solar cycle 25’s peak has dissipated will the sun brighten or recede to more of a LIA style decline? The future is not known, there is no model that can accurately tell us, however some solar researchers indicate, with some confidence, that is exactly what will happen. Time will tell, but has any European Government got any contingency plans for such a probable event?
    No! We’re each on our own as this comes to pass, and no amount of windfarms nor solar energy will ever help us get out of it.

    Stay warm and safe this winter.

  4. Green Sand

    Surprise, surprise UK Met Office beg to differ:-

    “For October and October-November-December as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures.”

    Time will tell!

    1. Sidian

      Indeed, time will tell. And that is exactly the best thing about it. We don’t have to wait 50 years to check if their predictions were correct. Three months from now we’ll know.

  5. Ulric Lyons

    But what about the new northeast Pacific warm blob? Echoes of Jan-Feb 2014?

  6. Yonason

    Climate Change Has Profound Effects On The Past

    Previously recorded data found to have become altered due to the magical temporal displacement effects of climate change.


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