“Model Failure”…”Politics Hot Because Climate Models Are Too Hot”, Says Leading German Climate Science Skeptic

Leading German climate science critic Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt has penned a commentary at Achgut.de titled: “How climate models inflate climate sensitivity.”

Image: GWPF

CO2 climate overblown

Vahrenholt cites Lewis/Curry 2018, who concluded “1.3°C for a doubling of the CO2 content of the atmosphere by about the end of this century (transient climate response), 1.7°C for a long-term equilibrium (ECS) in the period 2150 to 2200.

The German professor added: “Papers which examined historical periods (last glacial maximum to pre-industrial) do not contradict these low figures.”

Vahrenholt, co-author of The Neglected Sun, says that it’s been explained at his Die kalte Sonne site how “climate models are too hot” and that they do not fit with the observations”.

Overheated models a threat to movements

“If models and reality do not fit together, scientists should rather question their models,” says Vahrenholt. “This would mean that the much more dramatic sensitivity estimates of the last IPCC model observations – 1.86°C for TCR and 3°C for ECS – would have to be thrown overboard.” This of course would result in undermining the current Fridays for Future movement and plans by governments to tax CO2.

Activists currently blame the mismatch between models and observations on temporary “internal variability” events and that the warming will become “much stronger on a global scale in accordance to the models,” says Vahrenholt. But the IPCC’s and activists’ claims are being severely challenged by studies, such as Dong et al (2019), Vahrenholt comments.

Once again models fail

In Dong et al, which looks at the Tropical Pacific, it is shown how “once again the models fail because of the clouds!”

“It is therefore a clear physical mechanism that leads to the observed stronger warming of the tropical West Pacific leading to lower global sensitivities (= stronger negative global feedback),” the German professor of chemistry writes. “Climate models have such large deficits in the depiction of events in the tropical Pacific that they wrongly determine the global response to drivers and systematically overestimate the sensitivity to CO2 as a driver, a second paper by Seager et al of Columbia University in the respected scientific journal “Nature” (!) from July 2019 shows.”

“The failure of state-of-the-art models to capture the correct response introduces critical error into their projections of climate change,” Seager et al concluded.

But Germany’s leading climate science critic does not expect the IPCC to take all the errors into account when it puts out its forthcoming progress report. That would be a heck of a huge mess for the IPCC and an embarrassment to climate science and overzealous climate policymakers.

IPCC will go on pretending

“Then hundreds of pages dealing with model projections would have to be critically revised,” comments Vahrenholt. So for the IPCC, it’s best to just simply ignore all the inconvenient science and to go on pretending.

Vahrenholt concludes: “Politics is hot because the models are too hot. Which scientists have the courage and are ready to accept their responsibility to enlighten FFF and policymaking?”

Complete comment here in German at Achgut.de.

6 responses to ““Model Failure”…”Politics Hot Because Climate Models Are Too Hot”, Says Leading German Climate Science Skeptic”

  1. John F. Hultquist

    Which scientists have the courage and are ready to accept their responsibility to enlighten FFF and policymaking?”

    A list of all past participants could be monitored for those that drop out of the cAGW UN sponsored programs. I suspect that many will just “move on” rather than “accept their responsibility.” Don’t expect to see a lot of public confessions. I doubt anyone will do systemic monitoring long term, so expect just a few episodic reports.

  2. drumphish

    You have to wish everyone well, even those who viciously, rabidly rant ill will towards you, anything, really, that makes them mad as hell and they’re not going to take it anymore. Hate is easy to do. You are the target, you fossil fuel using fuel you.

    It’s not their fault that it’s your fault because they say it is your fault, it’s your fault.

    Yeah, right, go home and drink your beer, take it easy, get some sleep, it was a long day at the protest and you had orders from headquarters. Had to find something to eat while you were there, didn’t ya?

    We’re brainwashed, we need somebody to tell us what to do, we don’t have a clue, obviously, we’re here at the protest. Hint: stop being a brainwashed idiot.

    Killing them with kindness can work, but you can’t be rational with those who are demented, their brains are brainwashed with all of the good propaganda employed most effectively to convince those stupid brains they have that those brains have finally become enlightened, have come to their senses once and for all. No longer haywire like they were, you can understand how it happens.

    Deluded into believing they are somehow right on the money in their thinking and everyone else is out there in la-la land, it’ll be different this time, it’ll all work out, if it is done radically through violent means, then so be it. No sense in raising your tolerances, who is going to tolerate that?

    Creates an us versus them scenario, which never helps anything, a difference of opinion won’t be resolved. The brainwashed fool’s opinion versus your opinion, backed by facts, evidence, to the contrary of the super models purportedly correct.

    The weather outside says it is not warming as much as the models say it is, just have to take a look, see for yourself, not at all that hard to do. You can then forget about being brainwashed by fools who don’t have the brains to be honest.

    If it were warming like it all should according the eleven thousand scientists including Mickey Mouse, the snow would be gone and never to be seen again anywhere, the snow that never returned, must be lost ‘neath streets of Boston on the MTA. Al Gore, the AGW Pied Piper, is somewhere out there too. Figures.

    The inconvenient truth: there is snow on the ground in Illinois, not just on the mountain tops in the Rockies.

    Every ice sheet above the Arctic Circle will be gone, the Arctic Ocean will melt to water, new beaches for sunbathers, has to be some kind of benefit. Gotta find your place in the sun, might as well be a nice warm spot.

    Some folks said something about the climate and all of a sudden the climate change scare became an emergency and an existential threat. The Climate Emergency needs a Climate Emergency SWAT team, deniers need to be shipped to a gulag, that is how urgent and critical it is, can’t ignore it any longer.

    Climate change alarmists are an existential threat, well, just their stupidity, as long as they are completely brainwashed, that won’t change.

    Think of the dogs and cats. If humans were to go extinct, the dogs and cats would die of loneliness, unhappy all the way to the end.

    Wouldn’t have to think of the children anymore.

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