**Clouds regulate Earth’s climate. New studies suggest uncertainty in clouds’ surface radiative effects reach 17.4 W/m² per year (±8.7 W/m²/year). Total CO2 climate forcing is said to be just 0.02 W/m² per year. The difference in these magnitudes preclude detection of a CO2 signal in climate forcing.**

According to **Feldman et al. (2015)**, a 2 ppm increase in CO2 per year (22 ppm over the 11 years from 2000-2010) results in a surface radiative forcing influence of **0.02 W/m²**, or 0.2 W/m² per decade. This is said to be just “**ten per cent of the trend in downwelling longwave radiation**” when clouds and water vapor are considered.

In contrast, the influence of clouds in total longwave forcing is substantially larger, with **radiative forcing trends reaching** **±4 W/m² per decade**.

From 1978 to 2010, the total longwave anomalies reached amplitudes of about **±2 W/m² per year** (**Loeb et al., 2012**, below image). These anomalies dwarf the 0.02 W/m² per year radiative influence from CO2, and thus factors other than CO2 must be driving the variability.

Further, the overall *trend* in longwave or greenhouse effect forcing appears to have been *flat* during this 30-year period. CO2’s 0.2 W/m² per decade contribution may have had no net impact on the trend.

###### Image Source: **Loeb et al., 2012**

Even if a CO2 forcing signal *was* detectable in an overall trend over the last few decades, it would be lost amid the uncertainty and noise of the radiative effects of clouds.

According to **L’Ecuyer et al., 2019**, the global annual net cloud radiative effect (CRE) at the Earth’s surface is estimated to be -24.8 **±8.7 W/m²**. In other words, when cloud cover increases, surface temperatures cool because the net shortwave effects of cloud (-51 W/m²) exceed the net longwave effects of cloud (+26.3 W/m²). The uncertainty value associated with this overall surface forcing estimate, ±8.7 W/m², has a range of 17.4 W/m².

If CO2’s net radiative effect in surface forcing is 0.02 W/m² per year and the uncertainty the radiative effects of clouds is ±8.7 W/m² per year, this means that uncertainty is 870 larger than the CO2 influence.

A CO2 forcing signal is therefore not detectable in the Earth’s energy balance.

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I got an interesting result:

http://phzoe.com/2020/03/13/geothermal-animated/

Uncertainty indeed!

This is right in line with Pat frank’s work that took him 7 years to get published.

And all of this is consistent with …

“H.-J. Lüdecke und C. O. Weiss: The 1850 to 1990 Rise of Global Temperature is Consistent with Natural Cycles. Poster präsentiert auf der European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2018 in Wien, 8.-13. April 2018.” (https://www.horstjoachimluedecke.de/egu-poster )

8.7 / 0.02 is 435, not 870

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