In an interview with Punkt.Preradovic, finance Prof. Dr. Stefan Homburg of the Leibniz University of Hanover said Germany’s lockdown has “amounted to nothing”, has had no effect on the spread of the corona virus and that the spread had already slowed down below a reproduction number of 1.0 before the lockdown.
Citing data from Robert Koch Institute (RKI)
In the interview, the prominent professor, once an adviser to former chancellor Gerhard Schröder, cited a chart from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) that was issued on April 15th:
As the RKI chart shows, in early March the reproduction number had risen rapidly before reaching a peak on about March 10. By March 21st, the reproduction number dropped below 1.0.
“Ineffective”, “completely unnecessary”
It wasn’t until March 23 that the German government decreed a lockdown. As the chart shows, since the lockdown was enacted, the reproduction number did not change at all. It’s had no effect.
“It is not the case that the reproduction number went down after the lockdown”, Professor Homburg says. “There are two points we can draw from this: First, the lockdown was not necessary because the number was below 1, and secondly, the lockdown was not effective because the number didn’t drop afterwards.”
“Enormous economic damage”
Homburg agrees that the lockdown led to “enormous economic damage” and was “completely unnecessary”. In view of the data, Homburg does not know why the lockdown continues even today. Currently the reproduction rate stands at 0.7.
Homburg tells Preradovic that the politicians issued the lockdown in panic, came too late and thus so served no purpose. “It was not only unbelievably damaging for the economy, but also for other human factors. It’s about suicides and delayed operations.”
Panic fanned by absurd numbers
Citing the RKO numbers, Homburg also says: “There is not going to be any terrible epidemic. All the panic was fanned by the Robert Koch Institute, who said on March 20th that in the best case we will see 300,000 dead, and maybe 1.5 million dead.” Today the number is well under 5000.
One single alarmist paper
Homburg explains that the origin of the alarming death projections were adopted by the RKI from one single alarmist paper and that “it’s unbelievable that the government allowed itself to be so misled.”
Financial ruin for no reason at all
On the overall situation, Homburg comments: “It’s completely unimaginable. Huge damage is being caused. People and businesses are being financially ruined without any reason at all.”
On why it’s happening, Homburg says that German politicians, such as Angela Merkel, have gotten full cover from the media, and today enjoy high approval ratings because of the appearance of being competent crisis managers. And as long as the polls remain so, Homburg says, there’s little incentive for politicians to relax the lockdown.
Trump may wish to take a look at what’s happening in Germany, and move fast to end the destructive lockdown in USA.
19 responses to “Prominent German Prof Says COVID-19 Lockdown “Completely Unnecessary”, “Unbelievably Damaging To The Economy””
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That implies that by 21 March either the virus had infected enough of the population for herd immunity to come into effect OR a significant proportion of the population was already immune to it when the outbreak got under way, and just never got infected at all; only the minority without immunity got the virus (and very, very quickly).
So what is going on here?
The same bunch of dangerous psychopaths and incompetent clowns set up the climate emergency fraud, so, at least there is some logic in their madness.
What is this “reproduction number?” How does one calculate it?
My question: how could the graph of R vs time be generated absent large-scale testing (for both infection & immunity)?
Thank you. Answers many of my questions. But an R>1 would produce an instant explosion of cases unless additional factors are considered; latency of infection and duration of infectiousness. These will introduce some hairy terms into any time model of an epidemic, especially if seasonality is also considered. It is important to learn from this experience. Reminds me of Climate Science in all its glory.
It is the famous R0. A kind of cabalistic hocus-pocus that does not really relate to the reproduction of the pathogen nor the disease. Just take a look at this paper: J.A.P. Heesterbeek 2002: A brief history of R0 and a recipe for its calculation. It is here (please delete the spaces in the link):
htt ps: //w ww.researchgate. net/ publication/216638420_A_brief_history_of_R_0_and_a_recipe_for_its_calculation
People need to realise that the lockdown isn’t a response to the virus, it’s USING the virus to enact what they have always wanted…. total control over the masses.
Has no one noticed that very few of the “elites” are in lockdown? Those that are, nothing has really changed, that’s how they lived anyway, 100 room mansions on 5 acres of land…
This is just a veiled agenda of the globalists to enact 1% freedom, 99% under control.
One UK newspaper reported last weekend that the public were “Steadfastly” behind the lockdown being continued for as long as necessary. In today’s edition the same paper says that the public are now so scared by the relentless onslaught of negative media reporting that they still won’t go out, or return to work even when the lockdown is lifted!!!
“Total control over the masses” – You’ve got that right!
Yes. I think it’s going to be a BIG problem to get ‘the public’ to go back to work, and kids back in school. They are absolutely petrified of this thing, now. It has assumed mythic proportions.
I think this palava has been the most stupid thing I’ve seen government do, in my life – and that’s saying a lot.
The UK’s progression was a week or two behind Germany, so it’s likely our R is now down to, or below, 1.
No lockdown in Sweden, the country where I live.
Compare the numbers for Scandinavia and Finalnd. At present Sweden looks bad, relative to the others, but in the end it may be the best policy.
Strangely, in Sweden the people trust their government even when it is quite paralysed. Trusting the government makes it easy for people to comply with the distancing measures and other precautions. It is strange to see that many people are still using the restaurants etc, but in the end, this experiment might prove Sweden to be right, at least on this issue.
But the Swedes are still voluntarily using social distancing and staying at home when possible?
Yes. They follow the government instructions faithfully, mostly.
Many businesses are working 60% and some 40%. We still get paid around 90% of salary. Many still go to their workplace for some days each week and work from home other days.
Sweden is doing well with respect to the number of cases relative to the population (Tot cases / 1M pop).
No significant difference with Norway for example, while those two countries are very similar in many aspects (OK I know, some of the Swedish people will disagree with that 🙂 ):
– Sweden : 1424
– Norway : 1306
In some cases, the results seem to be at the opposite of what lockdown should cause, as with Netherlands (weak lockdown) compared to Belgium (strict lockdown) :
– Netherlands : 1906
– Belgium : 3322
I’m more and more convinced that the only actual impact of lockdown is to destroy the economy beside creating many other health issues (suicides, mental illness, delayed treatments causing more serious diseases, etc.).
Nice piece and interview. Does anyone know if there is an english subtitle of the video interview, or an english transcript?
This is worth checking out.
According to Deutsche Welle, “While the virus was certainly not engineered in a laboratory, this doesn’t mean we haven’t played a role in the current pandemic. Human impingement on natural habitats, biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation are making virus spillover events much more likely, a major new study from scientists in Australia and the US has found.”
By the looks of it, climate change alarmists and environmental fanatics still want to try to collectively blame humanity by fallaciously conflating this Covid-19 epidemic with climate change and lack of environmental protection.
These alarmists are really desperate.
The Corona is a very dangerous virus.
It can kill you and at the very least it can destroy lung tissue. So if you do not want to be panting for the rest of your life the sensible thing to do is social distancing and sanitise often and hope you do not get it.
Along with hydroxychloroquine as a possible prophylaxis to prevent symptomatic COVID-19 disease after known exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, and tests to show if early preemptive hydroxychloroquine therapy can prevent disease progression in persons with known symptomatic COVID-19 disease, … see https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2020/04/24/preemptive-coronavirus-therapy-positive-update/ for some of the latest reports.
Ron Clutz has also found that the US military are investigating oleandrin extract as a prophylactic and/or a treatment for viral infections.
More at https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2020/04/24/ole-oleandrin/