So far no signs of another super hot-dry summer for Europe, which media have been alarming about.
Veteran Swiss meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann tweeted the 45-day projections for Europe.
In terms of precipitation, Europe saw drought conditions over the past two summers (2018 and 2019) and climate alarmists claimed this would be the new normal. And recently the European public got bombarded by media reports stemming from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of a blistering super hot and dry summer this year.
But look what the ECMWF now projects for the next 45 days (upper chart). Kachelmann comments: “Even according to the latest 46-day trend of the ECMWF, which runs to mid-July, the drought summer seems to be completely called off for the time being.”
Ein "Hitzesommer" war noch nie in den Vorhersagen drin und das scheint zumindest bis Mitte Juli auch so zu bleiben, auch wenn es später im Juni wieder sommerlicher wird. pic.twitter.com/6G97p1NJmY
— Jörg | kachelmannwetter.com🇨🇭 (@Kachelmann) June 5, 2020
And in terms of temperature, see the lower chart, nothing unusual is projected to happen over the next 45 days. The Swiss meteorologist notes: “A ‘hot summer’ was never in the forecasts, and it seems it’ll stay that way at least until mid-July, even if it gets more summery again later in June.”
Keep in mind these long range forecasts come with much uncertainty, and change with every run. But right now it looks like all the recent doomsday projections of a scorched euro-summer were overblown.
4 responses to “Current ECMWF 45-Day Forecast Contradicts Recent Claims Of Another “Record-Breaking Summer” For Europe!”
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In fact, the data show that we may soon see major droughts in the eastern United States, South America and Europe.
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Weather models are quite good in the 1-5 day period, 5-10 days and they get quite variable in their accuracy with a great loss in resolution. Anything specific after 10 days — regardless of which model — is just as good as guesswork!
Compare weather models at https://www.wetterzentrale.de/ for the immediate future, note all the differences, then realise that projecting onward to 45 days is just meteorological junk.
If weather forecasting was in any way reliable these models would all be in consensus about the future. If long term weather models were by any means accurate with good resolution they would be able to project a whole season (or year!) into the future, and give specifics about sunshine hours, rainfall amounts, wind speeds and direction to very high accuracy at your location. They could tell you which day will be the hottest, coldest, wettest, etc., for your location over a season (or year) in advance. They can not, and NEVER will as there are too many chaotic variables in the mix of measured, and assumed, parameters.