‘Most Of The Globe’ Could Experience ‘No Warming’ For 30 Years Due To Temperature-Driving Internal Variability

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A new study documents the dominance of internal variability in decadal-scale global temperature changes and suggests we may experience a global cooling trend during the next 15 or even 30 years despite rising greenhouse gases.

Maher et al. (2020) acknowledge that internal variability in global surface temperature variations is “a difficult concept to communicate” because we have very few observations of its impact and so we must rely on assumptions about how the climate system might work.

Those who try to explain how internal variability affects global surface temperature often use the “Butterfly Effect” paradigm; they assume that small changes now can lead to larger changes decades from now.

Because global temperature trends are “largely determined by internal variability”, global cooling or another warming hiatus could very well be observed over the next decade. Actually, as Maher and colleagues explain, “even out to thirty years large parts of the globe (or most of the globe in MPI-GE and CMIP5) could still experience no-warming due to internal variability“.

Image Source: Maher et al., 2020
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10 responses to “‘Most Of The Globe’ Could Experience ‘No Warming’ For 30 Years Due To Temperature-Driving Internal Variability”

  1. 'Most Of The Globe' Could Experience 'No Warming' For 30 Years Due To Temperature-Driving Internal VariabilityClimate- Science.press | Climate- Science.press

    […] ‘Most Of The Globe’ Could Experience ‘No Warming’ For 30 Years Due To Temperature-Driving In… […]

  2. Jimmy Walter

    We are going into a little ice age. Scientific paper describes a model that is 97% accurate going back thousands of years, predicts the beginning of a little ice age (Grand Solar Minimum) in 10.5 years!
    Executive summary:

    Here is full paper: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283862631

    Follow-up paper:

    or http://tinyurl.com/yap388av

    Latest paper:

    or http://tinyurl.com/y9m2xk46

    Dear Mr. Walter et al,

    Our analysis of solar magnetic field is based on Principal component Analysis published in 2012 (Zharkova et al, MNRAS, http://computing.unn.ac.uk/staff/slmv5/kinetics/MNRAS-2012-Zharkova-2943-53.pdf ).

    In 2015 we published the break-through paper: Zharkova et al., 2015 https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689 which explained the occurrence of grand minima on a (semi) regular basis during the past millennia owing to beating effect of two dynamo waves of the sun formed in the inner and outer layers of the solar interior. Later we reported paper by Zharkova et al, 2018a http://computing.unn.ac.uk/staff/slmv5/kinetics/reply2usoskin_jastp17.pdf which have the proofs that the solar grand minima occurred on semi-regular basis in the past 5 millennia and will continue to occur in the future millennia. Some discrepancies with Sporer minimum are explained by the explosion of a supernova Vela Junior in the Southern Hemisphere that gave a strong flux of cosmic rays on the solar system which overriden the carbon-darting in 13-14 centuries and led to wrong impression that it was a solar grand minimum while it was a supernova gamma-rain on the Earth.

    As you can figure out from our Fig.3 from the paper in Nature SR, Zharkova et al., 2015, the upcoming grand minimum will be seen only during the cycles 25-27 (2020-2053). After this time in cycle 28 the visible solar activity will be restored back to normal. Moreover, even in these years 2020-2053 the most reduced activity will be seen during the minima of solar activity between cycles 25 and 26, cycle 26 itself and then later between cycles 26 and 27. These 3 cycles will be a modern grand solar minimum, similar to the one we had in 17-18 century (Maunder Minimum) but twice shorter that the one in 17 century. The solar activity goes regularly through these grand solar minima (e.g. Wolf, Oort or Homer minima as described in our papers published recently Zharkova et al, 2017 https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.04482.pdf Zharkova et al, 2018b http://computing.unn.ac.uk/staff/slmv5/kinetics/zharkova_iau335_paper1.pdf.

    These GSMs occur every 350-400 years and are regular features of solar activity cause by interference of dynamo waves produced by solar dynamo in two different layers (inner and outer ones) (Zharkova et al, 2015).

    In the RAS press-release of our paper in Nature SR in 2015 http://computing.unn.ac.uk/staff/slmv5/kinetics/press-release%20-NU2015_list_nat.pdf we shown that the solar irradiance is decreased by 3% only while the average temperature was reduced by more than a degree. This suggested that the temperature decrease was not mainly caused by a descries of solar irradiance but by a decrease of magnetic field. This in turn leads to the intensity increase of cosmic rays which break the high clouds and lead to opening the ‘greenhouse’ to the interplanetary space. Reduction of solar magnetic field leads also to increase of the role of planetary magnetic field, increased volcanic and earthquake activities. These processes are not included in any of the modern models describing the terrestrial temperature variations which cannot explain even the previous grand minimum – Maunder Minimum.

    We hope this answers all the points raised in the u-tube presentation. which, actually, exposes the deficiencies of the current climate models more than the problems with the upcoming grand minimum which is upon us in 2020-2053. We will see the developing story in front of our eyes and decide who is correct.

    We need to plan for crops that will survive the coming cold. We need much more energy which solar panels will probably not supply due to increased clouding.

    Robert Felix’s book, “Not by Fire, but by ICE” gives some details on what crops will survive and a good, full ice age history. His current blog is http://www.iceagenow.info jfelix@juno.com

    Joshua Pearce at MTU in Minnesota has more detailed what to do. https://www.academia.edu/30961018/Feeding_Everyone_if_the_Sun_is_Obscured_and_Industry_is_Disabled

  3. Petit_Barde

    “We do show, however, that all locations, … are much more likely to warm than cool, demonstrating the role of increasing greenhouse gases.”

    So the warming is due to greenhouse gases and the cooling to internal variability … and shurely no other hypothesis is worth mentioning (the opposite, the Sun, CO2 may have nothing to do with climate, …).


    They only have shown they have no clue and are just guessing some fake explanation supporting the AGW Church maybe because it will somewhat difficult to fudge the data when under 10 feet of snow.

  4. Yonason

    “…the recent global warming slowdown or hiatus…” (that doesn’t exist) is caused by natural variation (that also doesn’t exist).

    Nice save! (no, not really)

  5. tom0mason

    Hahahah, “internal variability”!
    No what you mean natural variability! And it is something you can’t accurately quantify, so try to squeeze it into some sort of ‘known-unknowns’ box.
    CO2 warming ain’t making it, so instead of Maher et al. saying they don’t know how the climate works in totality, they use sophistry to try and say they do understand but don’t specifically know why.

    Nature controls the climate (and atmospheric CO2 levels), not humans.

  6. RoHa

    No warming? We’re doomed!

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  9. salah bela

    thanks for this post

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