Climate Models Unable To Show Link Between Arctic Warming And Harsh Mid-Latitude Winters

Researchers can no longer blame inconvenient cold winters on Arctic warming. No scientific basis, new study shows.

Image: NASA (public domain)

By Die kalte Sonne
(German text translated by P. Gosselin)

The Arctic is warming faster than the mid-latitudes. It’s the so-called Arctic amplification (AA). According to a study by Polvani et al. 2020, half of the Arctic warming is due to ozone-depleting substances – and not CO2. This was of course a great surprise, as we have already reported here. So no wonder that the climate models are going crazy, since they have so far attributed almost the entire warming to CO2.

CO2 has been hopelessly overbooked, as it now turns out.

In Nature Climate Change, a paper by Cohen et al. 2020 has been published and it shakes another myth. In the past, researchers were too happy to tell us that strong Arctic warming leads to harsh winters in mid-latitudes. However, there is a problem: the models are largely unable to reconstruct this presumed relationship: The paper finds:

Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather

The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). Recently, there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA, and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability. Observational studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling. Although some model experiments support the observational evidence, most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Divergent conclusions between model and observational studies, and even intramodel studies, continue to obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather.”

11 responses to “Climate Models Unable To Show Link Between Arctic Warming And Harsh Mid-Latitude Winters”

  1. pochas94

    Can the models show the winter Arctic Temperature Inversion? The inversion causes surface temperatures to become a separate regime.

  2. toorightmate

    For Sale: Arctic Amplifiers.
    Suitable for all guitars.

    1. Yonason
    2. Petit_Barde

      There is even a Phil Jones Bass Amp :

      The Mobile Bass Amp HA-1

  3. Yonason

    Arctic warming was fake news when Tony Heller posted this video back in 2017, and since then nothing has changed. It’s still fake news.

  4. Yonason

    And this previous post of mine, with links to people who appear to actually know what is going on.

    The second link is dead, so I had to fish it out of the Internet Archive, here.

    Basically, what warmists are saying about drastically increasing heating of the Arctic, and by extension the whole world, is nonsense.

  5. RoHa

    I don’t care. I’m still going to blame Man-Made CO2 for everything.

    (Unless I get one of those huge cheques that the fossil fuel companies are supposed to be handing out.)

    1. Aussie

      Where can I get my Cheque?

      The only cheques that fossil fuel companies are handing out here are coal royalties which pump billions into the govt coffers here in Australia.

      But the Greenies don’t count this as a tax apparently.

      I have seen continual claims of “subsidies” for coal and fossil fuels, but all I see are taxes. This is easily seen for fuels with huge price disparities around the world for motor fuels due to taxes. Europe has enormous taxes, the US less and apparently in the Middle East very little.

      If anybody knows where these massive hidden subsidies are please let me, and our deluded Green friends know!

      1. RoHa

        I’m still waiting for mine.

  6. drumphish

    When you are at the 48th parallel and it is 23.5 degrees further south during the summer months and 23.5 degrees further north at winter solstice, you’ll have extreme weather variability in continental climates. Sixty below zero in the winter, 120 degrees Fahrenheit during the summer. Temperature extremes that did happen (1930’s) and is the record high and low.

    24.5 degrees north latitude versus 71.5 degrees north latitude makes a huge difference in weather systems.

    Looks like clear sailing for the Barents Sea, must be good fishing up there.

    Hey, I thought the Arctic Ocean was supposed to be all water by now.

    Guess not.

    Comet Neowise is out there now due north of my location approximately 10 degrees above the horizon. Quite the sight to see.

  7. Nieuws 16.7.2020 -

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