Yawn…Central Europe Sees Near Normal Summer As Earlier Predictions Of Record Heat, Drought Fail

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Earlier this year in spring, the WMO and others warned of another record hot summer and drought. The German media went bonkers in response warning that 2020 could even be hotter and drier than the 2018 and 2019 summers.

But now that the meteorological summer (June 1 – August 31) has ended, the data show that these earlier predictions were WRONG.

Germany’s DWD national weather service, having tabulated data from some 2000 stations nationwide, has issued its preliminary report for the summer of 2020. The results: a near normal summer.

Only 1°C warmer than normal

According to the DWD,  the summer of 2020 was often variable, seeing only short periods of heat and that it was not until August that the midsummer “turned up the heat” for a spell of about 10 days.

With a mean of 18.2 °C, the summer of 2020 across Germany was was 1.1 C above the mean of the 1981 to 2010 period. In July, many locations did not see the thermometer reach even 30°C.

Only in August did a heat wave lasting several days see temperatures over 35°C.

Overall near normal rainfall

With an average of around 230 liters per square meter (l/m²) of precipitation nationwide, summer 2020 fell only slightly short of its long term mean of 239 l/m², the DWD reports. Thus the projection of a continued extreme drought such as seen in 2018 and 2019 failed to appear.

Some regions, such as the Uckermark, the Leipzig lowland bay, Saarland and along the Rhine, saw less than half of the typical rainfall. At the same time, there were continuous rainfalls, such as in early August in Upper Bavaria with up to 150 l/m² in 24 hours, which also brought flooding. In total, over 700 l/m² were measured in the Alps over the summer.

10% more sunshine (hence a bit warmer)

At around 675 hours, the sunshine duration in summer exceeded its long-term mean of 614 hours by around 10 percent. The coastal regions recorded over 700 hours of sunshine. In the western low mountain ranges, however, the DWD measured only 500 hours.

“Summer 2020 was completely normal”

Die kalte Sonne here summarizes Germany’s summer of 2020: “Summer 2020 was completely normal in terms of precipitation, including regional differences. One could have wished for an abnormally humid one after the dry years 2018 and 2019, but weather is not about wishful thinking. When it comes to precipitation (which is first and foremost decisive for drought), there has been no remarkable trend. Everything else you hear is not based on facts.”




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15 responses to “Yawn…Central Europe Sees Near Normal Summer As Earlier Predictions Of Record Heat, Drought Fail”

  1. Lasse
  2. tom0mason

    Due to unforeseen circumstances only normal weather variations have been seen in Europe.

    How sad (not).

  3. John F Hultquist

    Fewer clouds, more sun, less rain. Party time!
    Except with Panic2020 parties are outlawed.

  4. Ben Vorlich

    Where I am in Haute-Vienne, France we’ve had a second dry summer after an average winter/spring of rain. We are now in a red alert for drought despite fields round here looking a lot greener than last year. River flows are on the low side and I’m not sure of the reservoir situation though.

  5. Josef Winder
    1. Yonason

      Those temperature deviations (anomalies?) are awfully large. In fact they are about 4-5 fold greater than what is normally reported.
      http://regenerativ.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Temperaturentwicklung-1024×607.png

      Obsessing over anomalies is probably not the best use of our time, as Richard Lindzen explains here.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwIixU1JyDU&

      1. Josef Winder

        NO. This grafic is from the ZAMG and is correct. The ZAMG has a very high reputation.

      2. Josef Winder

        And here Summer 1881 – 2020 in Bavaria (Germany) from the DWD:

        https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/zeitreihen/zeitreihen.html?nn=495662

        1. Yonason

          Thanks, Josef. That graph is consistent with the previous, but not with what I’m familiar with. And it doesn’t address how they define “anomalies.” When everyone else talks about anomalies in tenths of a degree, or less, with the historical range over all anomalies being on the order of one degree, I don’t see how they could be talking about the same thing.

          Here’s an example of how anomalies are normally presented.
          https://i0.wp.com/fabiusmaximus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/20150501-uah-graph.jpg
          Note that the range is from about -0.4 to +0.6 for the entire period.

          If you can post a link with information on how “anomaly” is defined in the examples you use, that might help me better understand the data that you are posting. Thanks.

          P.S., here’s a transcript of the Lindzen talk where he discusses the video I linked to earlier.
          https://merionwest.com/2017/04/25/richard-lindzen-thoughts-on-the-public-discourse-over-climate-change/
          It can be more easily translated than a video.

          1. Josef Winder

            These “anomalies” are the “deviation” against the reference period 1961 – 1990 in Austria and Germany.

            The global anomalies from UAH (Land AND Ocean), are generally smaller.

            Last not least – Temps-anomalies 1884 – 2019 in Switzerland:

            https://www.meteoswiss.admin.ch/product/output/climate-data/climate-trends-processing/ths200m0/swiss/year/1864-smoother/climatetrend_ths200m0_swiss_year_1864-smoother_e.pdf

          2. Josef Winder

            “but”
            1864 – 2019

        2. Josef Winder
  6. tom0mason

    Looks like the UK might get a warm, sunny spell between 7-10 September, so look out for the UK Met Office et al. hyping up the global warming screeching.
    What also is probably coming to the UK and most of Northern Europe, is some quite cool, if not cold weather to some areas afterwards, say around 12-17 September (+/- 2 days). No hype will happen, the cooler weather will be ignored and belittled, so the useful idiots will only hold in their memory the occasion of the slightly warmer period.

  7. Josef Winder

    Warmer and cooler weather in Austria since 2014:

    https://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/klima-aktuell/klimamonitoring/?station=5904&param=t&period=period-y-2014&ref=1

    I think, there is a difference…

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