January-2021 mean temperature data are in and we’ve added them to the plot to see if the mid-winter month has been warming over the past few decades.
Data source: JMA
Since 1985, the mean monthly temperature for January in Tokyo has been trending downward, showing that winter has gotten a bit harsher lately and thus defying warming predictions.
Next, also using the data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), we plot the mean annual temperature for Tokyo going back more than a quarter century:
Data source: JMA.
The story is the same: moderate cooling – warming predictions defied. Despite the sprawling megalopolis of steel, asphalt and concrete, Tokyo has been cooling off. Obviously there’s something other than trace gas CO2 driving the trends there – probably oceanic cycles – which climate models love to ignore.
Rural island Hachijō-jima
Moving offshore to the Tokyo island of Hachijō-jima, located some 287 kilometers south of Tokyo, thus far away from all the urban sprawl and heat island affects, we look at the latest January mean temperatures going back 50 years:
January 2021 came in at 10.7°C, and so the longstanding January cooling trend remains (using untampered JMA data).
Natural cycles, no warming in 80 years
Finally we look again at Hachijō-jima mean annual temperature going back to 1950. Has it been warming or cooling?
Data source: JMA.
If there’s global warming, it hasn’t reached Hachijō-jima. If we look closely at the chart, we see there’s something natural and cyclic behind the temperature at the island in the Philippine Sea, it’s not CO2. Overall there hasn’t been any trend in 80 years!
4 responses to “Tokyo, Hachijō-jima See No Annual Warming In Decades, January Temperature Trend Continues Decline”
FWIW, while it’s easy to take a bunch of data and do a linear regression and draw a straight line through it… all of those sure look to me (from a lot of experience) as being from a statistically-stable system (the “center” of the system does not vary with time) with statistical noise around it at the individual samplings.
Either way, it’s a difference of very little happening (linear regression) and absolutely nothing systematic happening (statistical noise around systematically-stable system output).
One of the most often claimed concepts is that basically “The Sun has nothing to do with it!”. However the data seems to be increasingly indicating otherwise.
One of the most respected organisations, The OSS Foundation, has a video here :
which outlines the core view on solar influences and the upper atmosphere.
Most recent data as outlined in the discussion here :
gives a more detailed view of the upper atmosphere and its response to short term solar influences.
Which approach one follows is, I guess, dependent on where one’s beliefs lie.
Well done Kirye, yet again you show evidence that local climates around Japan are NOT warming but cooling. And as any sane person knows, climate change is NOT global but a local phenomenon that depends on local and regional climate interactions.
Bottom line to all this — where is Tokyo’s or Hachijō-jima island’s warming as part of ‘global warming’?
I wonder where all this ‘global warming’ is hiding?
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