48 Of 79 ‘Catastrophic Climate Change’ Predictions Have Failed…The Other 31 Just Haven’t Expired Yet

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A new peer-reviewed paper published in the International Journal of Global Warming identifies 79 “apocalyptic” predictions formulated since 1970 by “researchers and activists” who “predict cataclysmic events” resulting from “catastrophic climate change.” Already 48 of these “truly apocalyptic forecasts” have failed. The other 31 are likely just as wrong, but the prediction end dates haven’t expired yet, as “the apocalypse is always about 20 years out.”

Rode and Fischbeck are “professors of Social & Decision Sciences and Engineering & Public Policy” at Carnegie Mellon University.

In a new paper and press release (surprisingly published in AAAS) they have effectively exposed a “string of repeated apocalyptic forecast failures” over the last 50 years made by such activists/scientists as Al Gore, Paul Ehrlich, and Tim Flannery. Activists/scientists James Hansen and Michael Mann have catastrophic predictions set to expire in the 2030s, and the IPCC had a cataclysmic forecast already fail and 3 others that will expire in 2029 and 2050 (2).

The authors’ intention was to warn the climate science community about the cry-wolf dangers of repeatedly making “extreme climate forecasts” that, when they inevitably fail, “undermine the trust in the underlying science.”

It is highly likely that these warnings will be ignored, however, as “making sensational predictions of the doom of humanity, while scientifically dubious, has still proven tempting for those wishing to grab headlines.”

Image Source: Rode and Fischbeck, 2021 and (AAAS press release)

The list of 79 predictions and their end (failure) dates can be found here:

Image Source: Rode and Fischbeck, 2019

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8 responses to “48 Of 79 ‘Catastrophic Climate Change’ Predictions Have Failed…The Other 31 Just Haven’t Expired Yet”

  1. Richard Greene

    I read the press release only, because the paper was not free.

    Not once was there any sign of intelligent thought.

    I’ll explain why in a moment.

    The (wrong) conclusion was that we need better forecasts:
    — No apocalyptic forecasts, and
    — Include some estimate of uncertainty with the forecast.

    The right conclusion is that we don’t need always wrong long-term climate forecasts at all.

    We need to learn a lot more about the exact causes of past climate change.

    And even if wee succeed at that, the future climate may have many random non-cyclical variables that can’t be predicted.

    The smart conclusion would be to get outside and enjoy the best climate this planet has had for humans, animals and plants, since the Little Ice Centuries, over 300 years ago.

    Then work on local weather forecasts that are accurate more than one week into the future.

    And forget about the climate 100 years in the future — we have no idea if it will be warmer, or colder, so why guess?

  2. Ziane

    Beautiful article, Thank you!

  3. RoHa

    Have the Warmists ever made an accurate prediction? I can’t find one anywhere.

    1. Richard Greene

      They predicted the global average temperature would rise.

      They could have predicted the average temperature would fall.

      It had been rising for 20,000 years — more recently rising since the 1600s — so more warming was a logical prediction.

      They have been predicting a climate crisis in 10 years, or in 20 years, since Roger Revelle in 1957.

      And they are going to keep predicting a climate crisis in ten years … forever.

      If they want more people to believe them, however, they should use more decimal places: “Climate crisis coming in 10.75 years”.

      That sounds more scientific.

      Of course the explanation will remain the same: “Because we’re big shot government bureaucrat scientists, and we say so”!

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