Over the past few summers, the media have been repeatedly tried t sell us an “increasing summer rainfall deficit” as an effect of climate change.
What about precipitation at the end of summer 2021?
Chart: Summer precipitation. Data source German DWD national weather service. Image by Frank Bosse
Since 1950 there is no linear trend of any significance. The 11-year low-pass filtering (thick line) shows supernormal periods in the middle of the 50s, while in the 70s and 80s we had subnormal periods of precipitation. The 2000s saw an upward trend, then downward again from 2010, all with little variation.
In recent years, especially in 2018 and 2019, there was very little rain, but also not so unusual in the time series. Then this past summer (2021), again a lot of rain, 310 mm. It fluctuates like that.
It’s been different with the temperatures, though:
Summer temperatures, Germany. Data: DWD. Chart: Frank Bosse
Here we see a clear increase since the late 80s, the 11-year low-pass filter shows that the linear growth trend originated mainly after that. This year’s summer – at 17.9°C – was again within the scatter range of the many years, but this cannot hide the fact that the warm trend is unbroken. Since 1990, summers have warmed by 1.8°C across Germany, a clear upward trend.
None of this can be observed in precipitation.
So, was it only an opportunistic exploitation of weather fluctuations? It already occurred many times before 1980, even without a stronger man-made climate change, which caused the media hype on the topic of rain and climate. Is it because everything about weather and weather patterns that is possible gets blamed on climate change? That would have been a very bad decision, because people feel they are being taken for a ride that way.
Dear media and “fact finders”: just stop it! You’re making yourselves more and more untrustworthy!