New Study: ‘The Reasons For The Warming In The Arctic Are Still Controversial’

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Of all the possible reasons for a warming Arctic since 2002, it has been determined that “the clear-sky downward long-wave radiation caused by water vapor” is the dominant cause.

A new study says that when it comes to downwelling long-wave, water vapor, clouds, and temperature are the main factors determining its intensity.

“As is well known, atmospheric water vapor, clouds, and the atmospheric temperature are the main factors affecting the intensity of the downward long-wave radiation.

Since the early 2000s, the Arctic has been rapidly warming. Some possible reasons for a warming Arctic posited in many recent studies include:

Albedo feedback

Lapse rate feedback

Planck feedback

Water vapor feedback

Cloud radiative forcing

Ocean heat transport

Vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interaction

Poleward propagation of Rossby waves

Phases of the Arctic Oscillation and Arctic Dipole

Positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Ural blocking

Changes in atmospheric circulation (i.e., the PNA)

But the winner of the most likely culprit for winter warming since 2002? Based on a diagnostic analysis of the surface energy balance equation, it’s water vapor.

“[I]t has been determined that the clear-sky downward long-wave radiation caused by water vapor is the dominant factor affecting Arctic amplification in the autumn and winter.”

Image Source: Gao et al., 2022

Anyone else notice the factor(s) that go unmentioned?

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9 responses to “New Study: ‘The Reasons For The Warming In The Arctic Are Still Controversial’”

  1. jouven

    Where is the infamous CO2!?

    1. John Brown

      Not a factor! It overlaps with the water vapor radiation but radiates in a more limited band.

  2. Jeremy Poynton

    All sorts of interesting looks into Arctic warming here

    https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/

    1. Michael Peinsipp

      Are you talking about the Jet Stream looking like it took a a hit of acid and than try’s to fly?
      Sol, the Sun, is the object that determines the Planets (All 10) temperature. At this time Sol is taking a ‘nap’ and putting out less energy. Les energy lower temps.
      Simple and easy.

      1. Jeremy Poynton

        Yup. Indeedy. Try telling that to the climate crazies, though…

  3. Lasse
  4. Jimmy Walter
  5. Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #502 – Watts Up With That?

    […] New Study: ‘The Reasons For The Warming In The Arctic Are Still Controversial’ […]

  6. E. Schaffer

    Well, how about the most obvious and most significant factor? It is all about ice! As the long the sea is open you have a maritime climate, with regard to surface AND air temperatures. Once the sea is frozen it converts to a continental climate, with temperatures falling off a cliff.

    So as sea ice declines the arctic has been moving from continental towards maritime climate, especially in the colder parts of the year, while there is almost no change during summer. It is probably the most powerful feedback one could think of.

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