Radiosonde Temps Show Northern Hemisphere, Tropical Warming Has Mostly Paused Since 1998

A new study indicates nearly all the Northern Hemisphere and Tropical warming in the last 40 years occurred by the late 1990s.

CO2 has risen by about 50 ppm since 1998 (367 to 418 ppm).

Interestingly, upper-air measurements of temperature from balloon-borne sensor radiosonde data, shown below in the image from a new study (Madonna et al., 2022), suggest there was more warming from the early 1980s to late 1990s – when CO2 only rose about 25 ppm (341 to 367 ppm) – than there has been this century.

Radiosonde measurements appear to depict mostly flat temperature trends since 1998 in both the Northern Hemisphere (25°N to 70°N) and tropics (25°S to 25°N).

Image Source: Madonna et al., 2022

About those CO2-Temperature mismatches…

From 1905-1945 annual human CO2 emissions hovered around one gigaton of carbon, or 1 GtC/yr.

But according to the graphical depiction of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) shown in Kennedy et al., 2019, SSTs rose about 0.6°C to 0.7°C during these 40 years.

Emissions grew from 1 to 5 GtC/yr from 1945 to 1975 and then from 5 to 9 GtC/yr from 1975 to 2012. But during these 30- and 37-year periods SSTs cooled -0.1°C and warmed 0.3°C, respectively.

So in the 67 years from 1945 to 2012, net global SST warming was only about 0.2°C (0.03°C per decade) even though human CO2 emissions exploded from 1 to 9 GtC/yr during these decades, whereas the global SST warming was about ~0.65°C (0.16°C per decade) in the 40 years from 1905 to 1945 when CO2 emissions were a relatively flat 1 GtC/yr.

If human CO2 emissions were driving Earth’s surface temperature trends, why is there such a mismatch between the trajectory of the emissions versus the surface temperatures?

Image (global SSTs, top) Source: Kennedy et al., 2019

30 responses to “Radiosonde Temps Show Northern Hemisphere, Tropical Warming Has Mostly Paused Since 1998”

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  3. Richard Greene

    This article is a pile of you know what
    and not something readers expect at this website.

    The Radiosondes do not have global coverage.
    What data do exist show a gradual rising trend.

    1998 was an unusually warm year due to a strong El Nino.

    1998 was mentioned for DATA MINING purposes.

    1998 to 2022 is 24 years.
    24 years is weather.
    Climate requires 30 years or more.
    Those data ARE available, but were ignored.

    Any temperature numbers before the use of weather satellite data in 1979 are suspect, and not accurate enough for scientific analysis.
    Ocean temperature data were not very accurate until the use of ARGO floats about 20 years ago.

    The fact is that Earth’s average temperature has been warming since the cold, late 1600s. There have been some flat trends, and even a global cooling trend (1940 to 1975, that was later “erased”) during that long warming trend.

    There is no science is cherry picking a recent hot year — 1998 — in an attempt to suggest the global warming since the late 1600s has ended. No human on this planet knows that. And this article is far from any proof of that wishful thinking.

    1. richard

      nor does global land temp data. eg the whole of Africa temps are estimated.

      1. richard

        WMO- “Because the data with respect to in-situ surface air temperature across Africa is sparse, a one year regional assessment for Africa could not be based on any of the three standard global surface air temperature data sets from NOAANCDC, NASA-GISS or HadCRUT4. Instead, the combination of the Global Historical Climatology Network and the Climate Anomaly Monitoring System (CAMS GHCN) by NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory was used to estimate surface air temperature patterns’

    2. David Reich

      “This article is a pile of you know what
      and not something readers expect at this website.” Nice claim. How do you KNOW what all readers “expect”? It is a published research paper.

      “The Radiosondes do not have global coverage.” The article does not claim that it does. It only cites northern hemisphere and South America. Your comment is a straw man.

      “1998 to 2022 is 24 years.
      24 years is weather.
      Climate requires 30 years or more.” According to who? Your delineation is nothing but an arbitrary and unfounded labeling of the data.

      1. Richard Greene

        I made the assumption that website readers expect good science
        Do you disagree?

        NASA-GISS claims radiosondes show a rising temperature trend since 1958. They do NOT show a flat trend since 1998, although 1998 did have a very sharp, brief temperature peak, from a rare very strong El Nino, unrelated to greenhouse gases. Making 1998 the worst year since 1958 for the starting year, or ending year, of a linear trend. The author deliberately chose 1998 for his article title because he is biased.

        The World Meteorological Organization defines climate as average weather over 30 years or more. The author ignores the WMO definition.

        1. David Reich

          The WMO is about as credible as the WHO. The crux of the matter is whether or not the slight rise in temperature since 1958 is caused primarily if at all by CO2 emissions. I do agree with you that picking 1998 as a starting point is no different than the NFS picking 1958 for their measuring of the # of days into the year that the Washington DC cherry blossoms hit peak bloom and arguing that climate change is pushing the peak bloom date 7 days earlier when if you start when data was first collected (early 1920’s) there is no statistically significant trend. Same with arctic sea ice extent. All alarmists start with 1979 when there is enough, albeit less data, showing much lower arctic ice in the early 70’s than in 1979.

  4. Adam Gallon

    And without removing that pesky “40’s blip”, I wonder what the SST chart would show?

    1. Richard Greene

      The SST chart shows whatever the government bureaucrats compiling the numbers want to show. There is no way to verify if they are correct until tne use of satellite day ta in 1979, and two versions of those satellite data, UAH and RSS, do not agree.

      There have been repeated changes in SST measuremet methdologies in the past 150 years. The methdology changes themselves, from buckets, to engine cooling water itakes to bouys to ARGO floats, most likely affected the linear temperature trend. I have never seen any comparison of the different measurement methodologies used in the same location to examine how similat the numbers are.

      ARGO floats for the past 20 years, and weather satellites since 1979, should be capable of accurate SST measurements. But can the people who compile the data be trusted? With UAH, I would say yes.

      But I always keep in mind that a large amount of global cooling in the 1940 to 1975 period — 35 years — long enough to be a climate trend — as reported by NCAR — was later “erased” by NASA-GISS.
      A global cooling trend while CO2 increased did not fit the CO2 controls the climate narrative, so the global cooling was arbitrarily deleted. That passes for science when you are “greenwashed” government bureaucrats.

  5. Richard Greene

    KR sez:
    “In fact, your comments have made it more and not less likely that I will call attention to pauses and declining temperatures in future articles.”

    Great job KR, cherry pick an unusually hot year, 1998, to create an artificial pause. You have learned from Monckton.
    But you have even topped him:

    You use Northern Hemisphere radiosonde data that contradict NASA-GISS, GLOBAL radiosonde data, with not a word to explain why.

    You ignore the WMO definition of climate as 30 years or more average of weather, with not a word to explain why.

    You respond to these charges of science bias, by being stubborn, not willing to admit any bias. Anyone can data mine the historical temperature records to create a any trend — up, down or flat.

    The official climate science organizations are claiming The past decade has been the hottest decade since record-keeping began. They are obviously not claiming a pause. If you think any “1998 Pause Truther” articles are helping to refute that official climate consensus, you need better thinking.

    PS: Thanks for condensing all my best criticisms in one paragraph.
    I was thinking of printing them put, and having them framed.
    And lighten up, I might complement your next article. Have you never before been criticized by a leftist Climate Howler about your articles?
    I’m not a leftists or a Climate Howler. I’ve had leftists go berserk after I tell them I ;love global warming — most of us do here in Michigan USA. Probably true in the UK too — I’ve been there twice.
    If that doesn’t work, I tell leftists Trump was the best president in American history. Then they blow their tops.
    Keep Calm and Carry On.

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