Cold Kills: Since 2000 There Were 85 Times More UK Excess Deaths Attributable To Cold Than Heat

A new Lancet study ominously reports that from 2000 to 2019 in England and Wales there were an average of 791 heat-related excess deaths and 60,753 cold-related excess deaths each year. That’s an excess death ratio of about 85 to 1 for cold temperatures.

Adjusted as deaths per 100,000 person-years, the annual ratio is 1.57 heat-related deaths vs. 122.34 cold-related excess deaths throughout the 21st century.

“Our analysis indicates that the excess in mortality attributable to cold was almost two orders of magnitude higher than the excess in mortality attributable to heat.”

Image Source: Gasparrini et al., 2022

Several other new studies report heavily skewed ratios for cold- vs. heat-related excess deaths in the modern climate.

Excess mortality due to cold temperatures was 32 times higher than for heat in Switzerland from 1969-2017.

Schrijver et al., 2022

“Total all-cause excess mortality associated with nonoptimal temperatures was 9.19% [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.72, 10.47], which translates to 274,578 (95% CI: 230,657, 312,761) temperature-related excess deaths in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017 (Table 2; Table S4). Cold-related mortality represented a larger fraction in comparison with heat, with 8.91% (95% CI: 7.46, 10.21) vs. 0.28% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.37).”

Excess mortality due to cold temperatures was 7.6 times higher than for heat in 326 Latin American cities from 2002 to 2015.

Kephart et al., 2022

“Climate change and urbanization are rapidly increasing human exposure to extreme ambient temperatures, yet few studies have examined temperature and mortality in Latin America. We conducted a nonlinear, distributed-lag, longitudinal analysis of daily ambient temperatures and mortality among 326 Latin American cities between 2002 and 2015. We observed 15,431,532 deaths among ≈2.9 billion person-years of risk. The excess death fraction of total deaths was 0.67% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–0.74%) for heat-related deaths and 5.09% (95% CI 4.64–5.47%) for cold-related deaths.”

Excess mortality due to cold temperatures was 6.8 times higher than for heat in a city in India (Pune) from 2004 to 2012.

Ingole et al., 2022

“We applied a time series regression model to derive temperature-mortality associations based on daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality records of Pune city [India] from year January 2004 to December 2012.  The analysis provides estimates of the total mortality burden attributable to ambient temperature. Overall, 6∙5% [95%CI 1.76–11∙43] of deaths registered in the observational period were attributed to non-optimal temperatures, cold effect was greater 5.72% [95%CI 0∙70–10∙06] than heat 0∙84% [0∙35–1∙34].”

Excess mortality due to cold temperatures was 42 times higher than for heat in China in 2019.

Liu et al., 2022

“We estimated that 593·9 (95% UI:498·8, 704·6) thousand deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperatures in China in 2019 (PAF=5·58% [4·93%, 6·28%]), with 580·8 (485·7, 690·1) thousand cold-related deaths and 13·9 (7·7, 23·2) thousand heat-related deaths.”

Excess mortality due to cold temperatures was 46 times higher than for heat in Mexico from 1998-2017.

Cohen and Dechezleprêtre, 2022 (full paper)

“We examine the impact of temperature on mortality in Mexico using daily data over the period 1998–2017 and find that 3.8 percent of deaths in Mexico are caused by suboptimal temperature (26,000 every year). However, 92 percent of weather-related deaths are induced by cold (<12 degrees C) or mildly cold (12–20 degrees C) days and only 2 percent by outstandingly hot days (>32 degrees C). Furthermore, temperatures are twice as likely to kill people in the bottom half of the income distribution.”

Excess mortality due to cold temperatures was 12.8 times higher than for heat “across 612 cities within 39 countries over the period 1985–2019.”

Mistry et al., 2022

“Here, we perform a comprehensive assessment of temperature-related mortality risks using ground weather stations observations and state-of-the-art reanalysis data across 612 cities within 39 countries over the period 1985–2019. … In general, across most countries, the estimates of the excess mortality are very similar, with a global-level excess of 0.53% (95% eCI 0.50–0.56) versus 0.49% (0.43–0.53) for heat, and 6.02% (5.80–6.18) versus 6.25% (6.05–6.41) for cold, from ground stations and ERA5-Land data, respectively (‘Global’ in Fig. 5 and Table S3). These percentages correspond to 357,729 (95% eCI 335,138–376,498) versus 326,032 (288,069–357,247) for heat, and 4,030,793 (3,880,068–4,137,579) versus 4,186,014 (4,051,321–4,293,311) for cold.”

If there really is a concern for human health and extending life spans, there should be much more emphasis placed on reducing the costs of energy to heat homes, as well as minimizing exposure to cold temperatures.

Instead, the invariable focus is on the dangers of “climate change” or heat waves that put humanity at a tiny fraction of the risk that cold temperatures do.

Warmth saves lives. Cold kills. This has been true throughout human history, and it is no less true today.

7 responses to “Cold Kills: Since 2000 There Were 85 Times More UK Excess Deaths Attributable To Cold Than Heat”

  1. Richard Greene

    Global warming since the 1970s has mainly increased night time lows at dawn (TMIN)
    So here in Michigan USA, men who have to shovel snow from their driveways at dawn, to get to work in winter mornings, are less likely to have a heart attack and die from that effort. Cardiac patients didn’t need a study to know the danger of cold weather. In the US, some of them move to warmer states after they retire to avoid cold weather dangers.

  2. Richard Bell

    “Great Britains Second Industrial Revolution and a New Prime Minister”

    The coming of a New Prime Minister got me thinking so here are some thoughts from an Englishman in the USA.

    The United Kingdom is a GREAT country but looking at it from the outside for the last 20 years I now fear for the word GREAT in “Great Britain”.

    My focus is on something we all use, we all need every day and is required to keep the world moving ……. “ENERGY”

    Like in many other parts of Europe and the World it looks to me like crazies have taken over in the UK. Green policies and Net Zero Emissions are leading England into the madness of so called renewable energy. This is not a fanciful observation, UK and European radicals think that Solar Panels and Wind Turbines will power the future saving us from a mild manageable temperature increase which is absolutely no threat to any British person let alone mankind.

    They cannot save us from a non existent threat and now Germany is in the midst of that realisation. Germany is the European poster child and has spent vast sums of money over may years to get just about nowhere. What they have ended up with are outrageously high domestic and industrial electrical prices, no Nuclear, dependence on Russian Gas and now the fact that digging up coal is about the only choice they have of keeping the lights on. If they really had been worried about Co2 emissions in the first place they would have followed the French down the Nuclear path and saved them selves a great deal of pain.

    Back to the United Kingdom and its prospective new leader. None of them have yet to my knowledge mentioned Green Polices or Net Zero. The British population sits atop a vast potential supply of energy which is in the form of Natural Gas. In a similar way to the USA we could be Energy independent. We already have an existing Gas infrastructure and if we moved forward with Fracking the existing gas under our feet just think how far ahead of Europe and the World we could be in the next few years.

    Residential electric bills could come down to sensible affordable levels, domestic heating costs would plummet. Industry could become competitive again which could potentially lead to new jobs. Cheaper fertiliser could be sold to our farmers and then around the world. Our food, our manufacturing industry, our population could flourish. Our people could take advantage of an amazing cost effective natural resource that is the GREAT BRITISH ENERGY of Natural Gas.

    All this can be achieved NOW with current technology and in a relatively short period of time. It needs courageous leadership to get the GREAT back in Great Britain and move us forward into THE SECOND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.

    A small benefit would be potential reduction in the emission of British Co2 which currently only stands at about 1% so in reality not making a big difference to the world. If we did this and politicians saw the light it could be a transition to a cleaner Nuclear future, we already have the makings of small nuclear power with Rolls Royce. Has someone in our government the courage to pull the United Kingdom out of the “ Green Pit Of Doom “ and up into the Natural Gas Light of a Second revolution.

    This energy revolution was achieved already during the last administration in the United States so it is a proven pathway to cheaper energy costs and energy independence. It is also plane to see that the current Green Progressive policies of the current American government have been an unmitigated disaster and do not work, sadly the USA is following the failed policy of Germany back into the pit of doom.

    DO NOT let the UK follow like a lamb to the slaughter into the catastrophic madness of so called Green Technology.

    WAKE UP and smell the GREAT BRITISH ROSE that is Natural Gas Energy and let it catapult us into a NEW INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

  3. Stephen Richards

    And this coming winter can only add many more

  4. Cris

    So… Isn’t it strange how the UK saw two days of over 35 degrees of heat, followed immediately by a lot of 16 degree days? It’s almost like someone flipped a switch on the heater and then turned it off, amirite?

    Also, kinda strange how there have been no bush fires in England before, no fires on Monday either, but then on Tuesday the whole country was on fire… Strange… Especially since Monday was a very sunny day and Tuesday was kinda hazy and cloudy. I mean, if a fire is going to start because some bit of glass acted like a lens and ignited some dry grass, you’re going to need quite a bit of sunshine for that to happen…

    It’s all so incredibly strange… And the news talking about the fires do not talk at all about how they started…

    If by this point you think there is absolutely no reason to at least find these events strange, I question your sanity.

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  7. Yonason

    Exciting new information about the longterm dangers of COVID, and more.

    These guys “get into the weeds” in ways I haven’t heard before. The show highlights the importance of exchange of information in expanding the bounds of our knowledge. It also highlights the effect of censorship in stifling open communication. I just hope that more competent individuals will get on board.

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