The following comment by Allan MacRae has been upgraded to a post:
PREDICTIONS OF GLOBAL COOLING, IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER SINCE 2003:
In 2003, Dr. Theodor Landscheidt wrote a paper predicting serious global cooling: “… a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.”
…
In 2005, Piers Corbyn predicted cooling by 2040.
…
Khabibullo Abdusamatov and colleagues at the Russian Academy of Science stated in 2006:
“Global cooling could develop on Earth in 50 years and have serious consequences …”
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Nigel Weiss, University of Cambridge, stated in 2006:
“If you look back into the sun’s past, you find that we live in a period of abnormally high solar activity. Periods of high solar activity do not last long, perhaps 50 to 100 years, then you get a crash. It’s a boom-bust system, and I would expect a crash soon.”
…
Leif Svalgaard, Stanford University, stated in 2006:
“Sunspot numbers are well on the way down in the next decade. Sunspot numbers will be extremely small, and when the sun crashes, it crashes hard. The upcoming sunspot crash could cause the Earth to cool.”
…
In 2007, Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian wrote in “Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years”:
“… Signs also show a drop in temperature in China on century scale in the next 20 years.”_______________
MORE PREDICTIONS OF GLOBAL COOLING:
THE NEW LITTLE ICE AGE HAS STARTED
H. I. Abdussamatov 2016
“The quasi-centennial epoch of the new Little Ice Age has started at the end 2015 after the maximum phase of solar cycle 24.
…
PROFESSOR VALENTINA ZHARKOVA: “WE ENTERED THE ‘MODERN’ GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM ON JUNE 8, 2020”
“Modern Grand Solar Minimum will Lead to Terrestrial Cooling“. Published on August 4, 2020, Zharkova’s latest analysis suggests that June 8, 2020 was the date on which we entered the Modern (Eddy) Grand Solar Minimum.”The opening paragraph reads:
In this editorial I will demonstrate with newly discovered solar activity proxy-magnetic field that the Sun has entered into the modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020–2053) that will lead to a significant reduction of solar magnetic field and activity like during Maunder minimum leading to noticeable reduction of terrestrial temperature.…
Dr Zharkova’s co-author Dr Yelena Popova was interviewed about their 2015 paper predicting global cooling, starting circa 2020.
My good friend Willie Soon and co-authors published August 1, 2021:
“In addition, our ML model forecasts a new phase of extended solar minima that began prior to Sunspot Cycle 24 (ca. 2008–2019) and will persist until Sunspot Cycle 27 (ca. 2050 or so).”DOES MACHINE LEARNING RECONSTRUCT MISSING SUNSPOTS AND FORECAST A NEW SOLAR MINIMUM?
V.M. Velasco Herrera, W. Soon, D.R. Legates, August 1, 2021
[excerpt]
In addition, our ML model forecasts a new phase of extended solar minima that began prior to Sunspot Cycle 24 (ca. 2008–2019) and will persist until Sunspot Cycle 27 (ca. 2050 or so).
Herrera, Soon and Legates in 2021 used a novel analysis and reached a similar conclusion, for cooling from ~2008 to ~2050.
Cycle 25 will be weaker than 24, just as Zharkova predicted. We are already close to changing the leading solar poles, and activity remains low.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Tilts.gif
https://www.sidc.be/images/wolfmms.png
https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
This is according to Zharkova’s forecast.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4625153/bin/srep15689-f2.jpg
There’s a lot to be “unhappy” with Russia about, but Zharkova at least didn’t have a “Golden Goose” to protect.
Please.
Here’s the “coolest” global temperature document for the last 45 years?
https://www.drroyspencer.com/
Help me out here: I’m not seeing any cooling.
If we assume climate follows the Holocene pattern starting around 8,000 years ago, then we probably have another 150 years of warming, just the way the Roman and Medieval Warming cycle did.
I’d love to believe the Space Weather story… but sun spot fixations are the right wing analogue of left wing CO2 obsessions. Both are marginal factors affecting climate.
The mechanism by which solar changes modulate the earth’s cloud cover/temperature is more complicated than counting sunspots. Coronal holes produce regular occurring solar wind bursts which remove ions via the mechanism called electroscavenging. During the recent period when the number of sunspots was declining, there was a suddenly increase in the number of long life coronal holes which appeared at low latitudes on the sun. These coronal holes also appeared during the solar minimum. The wind burst remove ions in high latitude regions which reduced cloud covero and caused primarily high latitude warming. The tropics has not warmed. It would have warmed if CO2 was causing the warming.
As noted at this site it is fact that the warming in the last 30 years has caused by a reduction in cloud cover, not CO2 infrared warming. The recent warming matches the pattern of warming in the paleo record.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2009JA014342
If the Sun is so quiet, why is the Earth ringing? A comparison of two solar minimum intervals.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Boian-Kirov/publication/241268909_Once_again_about_global_warming_and_solar_activity/links/0a85e533c0d942ecb0000000/Once-again-about-global-warming-and-solar-activity.pdf
Once again about global warming and solar activity K. Georgieva, C. Bianchi, and B. Kirov
We show that the index commonly used for quantifying long-term changes in solar activity, the sunspot number, accounts for only one part of solar activity and using this index leads to the underestimation of the role of solar activity in the global warming in the recent decades. A more suitable index is the geomagnetic activity which reflects all solar activity, and it is highly correlated to global temperature variations in the whole period for which we have data.
In Figure 6 the long-term variations in global temperature are compared to the long-term variations in geomagnetic activity as expressed by the ak-index (Nevanlinna and Kataja 2003). The correlation between the two quantities is 0.85 with p<0.01 for the whole period studied. It could therefore be concluded that both the decreasing correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, and the deviation of the global temperature long-term trend from solar activity as expressed by sunspot index are due to the increased number of high-speed streams of
solar wind on the declining phase and in the minimum of sunspot cycle in the last decades.
We hardly need to wait for the Sun. The AMO is now in its downward phase – that will cool things off nicely..
Zharkova’s prediction is not about the number of spots, but about the strength of the sun’s magnetic field. The number of spots and the strength of the solar wind are secondary to the magnetic activity on the Sun’s surface.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_yqIj38UmY&t=3s
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There’s little need to be concerned about the sun’s activity insofar as global cooling is concerned. Humans will make this happen in their own way, via a nuclear war. There’s not much doubt that is coming, and it will probably occur well before 2040. There will be a nuclear winter that lasts for at least 2 years, and will wipe out roughly one half of the world’s population, and possibly even more than that. One could view this as a good thing.
What the trend of solar magnetic dipoles tells us.
http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/DipallR.gif
The polar vortex is just forming. You can see that the top of the stratosphere is cold, so the vortex should be strong and quite circular in the upper stratosphere.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/01mb9065.png
However, below the 10 hPa level, strong pressure anomalies can be seen, so one must be cautious in predicting the polar vortex. Therefore, in autumn, cold air from the north will fall in waves to the south.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2022.png
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