By Fred F. Mueller [Berlin]
In the months-long drum-up for the big Jamboree of climate fanatics in Sharm el Sheikh a few weeks ago, politicians, NGO’s and the mainstream media have done their best to mask an inconvenient truth that will preoccupy us for a long time to come: the massive recession that the climate policies in our countries have brought upon us.
This undeniable truth can be clearly seen when looking at the Nasdaq, a fairly good gauge for the state of the economy and the seriousness of recessive developments:
Fig. 1. The Nasdaq since Jan. 1st, 2005
The graph shown above may be compared to the fever graph of a hospital patient. It is a fairly good indicator of the current state of the economy reflecting ups and downs and their severity.
For the past 17 years, several minor disturbances aside, we can identify three major setbacks linked to specific events. Their severity cannot be deducted directly by comparing the absolute differences. This is due to the fact that over time, the Nasdaq is subjected to constant growth as a result of the upswing in the collective wealth of the US shareholders. It is thus more appropriate to assess the severity of such declines by calculating the relative difference between max- und min-value before and respectively after the event. This yields the following results:
Subprime crisis: Decline -24 %, duration 4 months 10 days
Covid shock: Decline -30 %, duration 1 month
Energy crisis: Decline -16 %, duration 3 months
Ukraine war: Decline -23 %, duration 9 months and counting
The last two positions on the list should be viewed as a cluster where, especially in the second phase, aspects of energy/economy and war have become inextricably intertwined. This cluster has up to now achieved a combined value reduction of the Nasdaq of up to 36%, by far the strongest decline of the past two decades. Unfortunately, it is also the most dangerous, pitting east against west in a conflict with an intensity not seen for several decades. Far from being over, it has the potential to drive us into a full-blown world war with a nuclear superpower, with possible consequences far beyond the imagination of most people now living in our countries.
Unfortunately, the main driving force of this cluster has now shifted from the economy to the military theatre, with a spiral of tit for tat provocations drawing the participants ever deeper into a quagmire with no end in sight.
The Russian side, initially surprised by the level of Nato-driven modernisation of the Ukrainian army, has in the meantime been digging in its heels and has managed to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive, with horrible losses on either side. Both these developments have left their mark on the Nasdaq in the form of short-lived bear market rallies:
Fig. 2. The ups and downs of the Ukraine war have left their mark on the Nasdaq chart.
The obvious consequence of this war is the aggravation of an already dire situation initially brought about by the self-inflicted energy crisis that started to weigh on the Nasdaq chart since November 21, three months before the Ukrainian conflict broke out.
The underlying reason is the West’s policy of punishing companies exploring for and extracting fossil fuels by restricting their access to the financial market. The resulting shortage of coal, oil and natural gas inevitably resulted in skyrocketing prices for these assets, with companies and states frantically trying to secure their supplies of these vital energy sources. No wonder thus that these prices literally exploded when the West decided to boycott one of the biggest exporters of fossil fuels. But not for long. In the meantime the prices have shown deep declines not only for oil and gas, but also for most mineral commodities.
Recession has stepped in
The reason for this puzzling trend, at first glance, is that the related markets now seem to expect a long and severe recession. Reduced industrial activity implies reduced demand for all sort of commodities, and these expectations have dragged the prices down. The gravity of the situation is highlighted by the fact that even a noticeable production reduction by OPEC+ has not stopped oil prices from falling below the mark of 80 US$ per barrel.
Further difficulties
This combination of a misguided energy policy and a war, which shows no sign of abating anytime soon, is a toxic mixture that may threaten all of us.
Looking at the military side, Russia has been able to stop the recent advance of the NATO-backed Ukrainian army. The current situation reminds the frozen frontlines of the first World War, with massive artillery duels and fierce disputes over trenches that endlessly changed hands. Some sources hint at current Ukrainian losses of up to 1,000 killed or severely wounded soldiers per day, a rate the country might not be able to sustain forever. In spite of this fact, the West has opted to entrust the decision over peace or war to the Ukrainian leader, whose preconditions for peace talks amount to demanding an unconditional surrender of Russia. Some regard him as a fanatic wanting to fight to the bitter end. And we have vowed support, “whatever it takes”.
In the meantime, the economic and societal fallout of the recession aggravated by the conflict is mounting. The US and Europe are engaged in a fierce competition to determine who will be able to ruin their economy first – by sinking billions into senseless “climate-saving” investments that are nothing else than “instant” stranded assets.
Worse still…
And worse still: unfazed by the decline in share value putting US pension schemes at risk, the Biden administration is about to trigger a massive trade war with Europe and other allies through “green” protectionism schemes such as the electric car subsidies enshrined in the IRS 1) legislation. We all seem to be heading towards interesting times (an old Chinese adage).
[1] https://www.politico.eu/article/trade-war-europe-us-tech/amp/
Exellent but very disturbing summary. It appears that emotional thinking has taken over the lead of history.
Thanks
The great genius in charge in France has found a way out of this energy nightmare: build twice as many wind turbines!
And it’s not even a joke.
Two thoughts:
1. Mexico is planning to ban GMO corn and eliminate glyphosate (pros and cons are interesting) with alternatives to world food supply to be determined.
2. Ukraine and the Russian Federation are going to have reduced numbers in the age cohorts that are considered productive. Some are dying or seriously injured, some are leaving. There will be long term consequences.
The great mystery is not today’s ubiquitous stupidity, one of Einstein’s “three great forces,” but that it has been elevated to the unquestioned guide for conducting public affairs. It might well be the spread of “education.” Montaigne wrote that he preferred the company of peasants, who had not been educated to think wrongly.”
[…] Green Raw Deal: Climate Fanatism Has Put Us Full Throttle On The Highway To Hell — NoTricksZone […]
This is a reasonable interpretation of one part of the graph the graph. The second, and perhaps more important element is the months and years of quickly rising Nazdaq. Impressive, are they not? And based on debt. All of which remains whether the world has entered a recession or not. Few countries are now not facing a catastrophe of their own making based on greed and governmental malfeasance to which we can add a manic green and neo-Malthusian ideology of destruction.
There is intent behind all of it! The objective is to destroy and subjugate the middle classes in the developed nations.
God help those that have relied on their governments to make sure they have the fuel to keep warm. The piper is getting ready to demand his dues with Arctic air descending upon Western Europe.
The Antarctic blasts are descending on SE Australia on a regular basis this spring and summer now. People in Queensland (in the northern half of Australia) are even getting winter bed clothes out.
Meanwhile our stupid government is herding us over a cliff as quickly as it can. We are dealing with intermittent energy by making more of it. A huge wind factory on an island off the coast of Tasmania will do SFA but costs taxpayers billions. The wind factory will be forced to run only 7 months of the year in order to protect an endangered parrot species. Nevertheless, it will cost the lives of thousands and thousands of migratory birds.
The lessons of Europe aren’t being learnt by our betters here and the only saving grace for us at present is the occasional bursts of warm weather pretending to be summer. Let’s see what March and April in the Great Southern Land brings. Bbbbrrrrr…….
Predicted by us conspiracy theorists
[…] From the NoTricksZone […]
This author has no idea what he is talking about.
If he is talking about the EU, he should use one or more European stock market averages, not the US NASDAQ average. And the NASDAQ average was cherry picked because it is having the worst year of any US average.
Here are a variety of US stock market averages — year to date as of Friday, December 9, 2022:
US STOCKS:
S&P500 (down 17.5% y-t-d)
Dow Industrials (down 7.9%)
Utilities (down 2.7%)
Banks(down 24.0%)
Broker/Dealers (down 4.3%)
Transports (down 16.5%)
S&P 400 Midcaps (down 13.1%)
Small cap Russell 2000 (down 20.0%)
Nasdaq100 (down 29.1%)
Semiconductors (down 31.0%)
Biotechs (down 5.4%).
The author’s claim that the current downturn in the NASDAQ average is related to Ukraine is pure nonsense.
That market decline is for two main reasons:
(1) The unsustainable market rise before the peak,
to unprecedented valuations, and
(2) A reversal in Federal Reserve Bank policy in early 2022
to slow the price inflation they caused with the prior policy.
Concerning Ukraine:
There have been no Russian failures.
They had a goal and accomplished it in a few months.
They intended to stop the eight-year genocide of Russian speaking Ukrainians in the Donbas region of Ukraine and they did that in a few months. That region will never be returned to Ukraine after the Ukraine military killed 11,000 Ukrainian civiiians there from 2014 to 2022. The Russian action WAS justified by the 1948 Genocide Convention.
That was the only intention of Russia. But armed with US weapons and money to fight a proxy war against Russia, horrible, corrupt Zelensky has decided to keep fighting to the last dead Ukrainian soldier.
Now that Russia controls Crimea and the Donbas region, NEVER with any intentions of controlling more of Ukraine, it would make sense for Zelensky to give up the fight to get back territory that he will NEVER get back. But it seems that Zelensky does not care how many Ukrainians have to die TO LOSE A BATTLE to get back Ukraine territory.
Russia can not be expected to sit back and allow Ukrainian missiles to rain down on them (and the civilians) in the Donbas region, or in Crimea. But they can not stop all those missiles. But they can respond to continued attacks by turning Ukraine into the largest parking lot in Europe. And they will.
And then Zelensky can escape Ukraine and flee to Hollywood, where they love him, and buy a huge home in Malibu with all the money he has stolen from Ukraine.
Thanks for sending us a RT.com information. Difficult to find 🙂
The truth about Ukraine IS DIFFICUT TO FIND.
You have to be interested in truth to find it.
I think the West realized their energy plan was failing and costly. The Ukraine war lets the western elites blame Russia for their bad energy choices. The elites also thought Russia would collapse under western sanctions, allowing them to scoop up “dirty” Russian energy assets. If NATO does not send troops in Ukraine will fall and the elites will have lots of gas lighting to explain their war and energy failures.
C’mon… NASDAQ and the entire Wall Street financial terrorist scam has nothing to do with the lunacy of renewable generation of energy!
If the NASDAQ is “losing” virtual wealth it’s ONLY because the Owners of the Main System & Their Friends the Billionaires (not all, only a small group) want to.
The main drive for this apparent NASDAQ loss is directly related with the expected Federal Reserve System (a Tool of the Owners!) policies.
Without QQE/ZIRP/NIRP most of the traded corporations on that SCAM will find it very hard to keep the artificial rising of the stock price via buybacks and another FUN tricks!
Don’t mix SCAMS… It serves no purpose what so ever, and it might even hurt the theory about “Climate Change”!
EU politicians and leaders hated Trump more than they hated the Wuhan virus while rooting for Biden. Now, Biden has done to the EU what Trump never did or would never have done, ever.
Biden has a plan to destroy the EU to save the US economy from himself.
Julian Assange has stated that the intent of the global elite is to have wars/conflicts to remove monies via the tax base of European countries and the United States to be directed/funneled to the global elite.
Putin benefits big time.
You can’t have somebody like Julian Assange, thought criminal nonpareil, expose a swindle involving millions of taxpayers being fleeced to nothing by the market mavens out there, strike that, the globalist criminals. Call a spade a spade. Julian Assange is in a gulag.
FTX was a big help.
It is all about money and people have to needlessly suffer and die.
It’s not right.
You will have nothing, you will not be happy.