Global Cooling Consensus Is Heating Up – Cooling Over The Next 1 To 3 Decades

As winters get harsher and the snow piles up, more and more scientists are now warning of global cooling. Reader Matt Vooro has compiled a list (see below) of 31 prominent scientists and researchers who have words that governments ought to start heeding.

UPDATE: Another one for the list – Professor Paar, from Croatia’s Zagreb University

Cooling seems to be the trend. Photo source: NOAA.

Lately, the clueless among warmist scientists, governments and the MSM have been running around in deep snow with their global warming blinders on, denying the cold around them. Governments, entrusted to serve the citizens, really ought to start listening up and planning accordingly.

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Are we headed for global warming or cooling?

By Matt Vooro

For many years now a good number of non-AGW scientists, meteorologists, engineers, researchers and the like have looked at the possibilities of a cooling planet. I enclose some of the ones that I have noted  in my research. Indeed there is a significant number of scientists, academics, meteorologists and researchers who disagree with IPCC’s belief that the globe is very likely headed for unprecedented global warming due to man-made greenhouse gases.

The climate of this planet oscillates between periods of approximately 30 years of warming followed by approximately 30 years of cooling. Rather than 100 years of unprecedented global warming as predicted by IPCC, the global temperatures have leveled off and we seem to be heading for cooler weather.  

Lawrence Solomon in his article of 16 June, 2010 in the Toronto National Post commented on Professor Mike Hulme’s article about IPCC. The article can be found here at probeinternational.org. Hulme is a Professor of Climate Change in the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia – the university of Climategate fame — is the founding Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and one of the UK’s most prominent climate scientists. Quoting Hulme, Solomon said:

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change misled the press and public into believing that thousands of scientists backed its claims on manmade global warming, according to Mike Hulme, a prominent climate scientist and IPCC insider. The actual number of scientists who backed that claim was “only a few dozen experts” he states in a paper for Progress in Physical Geography, co-authored with student Martin Mahony.”

Professor Hulme’s paper can be found at fabiusmaximus

It would appear that IPCC underestimated the repetitive and significant impact of normal planetary cycles like the PDO, AO, AMO, NAO, ENSO, DEEP OCEAN CURRENTS [MOC], SOLAR CYCLES and UNEXPECTED PERIODS OF VOLCANIC ASH.

This is understandable as IPCC never had a mandate to study all causes of global warming but only the man induced component which seems to be dwarfed by natural planetary factors, which other scientists are now finding out. Read papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.

Here is a list of 31 different international climate scientists, academics, meteorologists, climate researchers and engineers who have researched this topic and who disagree with AGW science and IPCC forecasts, and are projecting much cooler weather for the next 1-3 decades.

    The List

1. Don Easterbrook, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Geology, Western Washington University.

Setting up of the PDO cold phase assures global cooling for next approx. 30 years. Global warming is over.  Expect 30 years of global cooling, perhaps severe 2-5°F.”

He predicts several possible cooling scenarios: The first is similar to 1945-1977 trends, the second is similar to 1880-1915 trends and the third is similar to 1790-1820 trends. His latest article states:

Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far more damaging than global warming would have been.”

Read here, here and here.

2. Syun Akasofu, Professor of Geophysics, Emeritus, University of Alaska, also founding director of ARC
He predicts the current pattern of temperature increase of 0.5C /100 years resulting from natural causes will continue with alternating cooling as well as warming phases. He shows cooling for the next cycle until about 2030/ 2040.

And again a new paper ON THE RECOVERY FROM LITTLE ICE AGE - Read here.

3. Prof. Mojib Latif, Professor, Kiel University, Germany
He makes a prediction for one decade only, namely the next decade [2009-2019] and he basically shows the global average temperatures will decline to a range of about 14.18 C to 14.28 C  from 14.39 C  [eyeballing his graphs].

He also said that “you may well  enter  a decade or two of cooling relative to the present temperature level”, however he did not indicate when any two decades of cooling would happen or whether the  second decade after the next decade will also be cooling. Read here and here.

4. Dr. Noel Keenlyside from the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University. The BBC writes:

The Earth’s temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted.”

A new computer model developed by German researchers, reported in the journal Nature, suggests the cooling will counter greenhouse warming.”

Read here news.bbc.

5. Professor Anastasios Tsonis, Head of Atmospheric Sciences Group University of Wisconsin, and Dr. Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. msnbc writes:

We have such a change now and can therefore expect 20 -30 years of cooler temperatures”

This is nothing like anything we’ve seen since 1950,”

Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. “Cooling events since then had firm causes, like eruptions or large-magnitude La Ninas. This current cooling doesn’t have one.”

Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years.”

Also read The mini ice age starts here at dailymail.co.uk/.

6. William M Gray, Professor Emeritus, Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University

A weak global cooling began from the mid-1940’s and lasted until mid-1970’s. I predict this is what we will see in the next few decades.”

Read colostate.edu.

7. Henrik Svensmark , Professor DTU, Copenhagen. Henrik Svensmark writes:

Indeed, global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning. No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth, on the contrary. This means that projections of future climate is unpredictable.”

Read here.

8. Jarl R. Ahlbeck, D.Sc., AboAkademi University, Finland

Therefore, prolonged low solar activity periods in the future may cause the domination of a strongly negative AO and extremely cold winters in North America, Europe and Russia.”

Read here.

9. Dr. Alexander Frolov, Head of Russia’s state meteorological service Rosgidromet. The Daily Mail.co.uk quotes Frolov:

‘From the scientific point of view, in terms of large scale climate cycles, we are in a period of cooling.

‘The last three years of low temperatures in Siberia, the Arctic and number of Russia mountainous regions prove that, as does the recovery of ice in the Arctic Ocean and the absence of warming signs in Siberia.”

And writes:

Mr. Tishkov, deputy head of the Geography Institute at Russian Academy of Science, said: ‘What we have been watching recently is comparatively fast changes of climate to warming, but within the framework of an overall long-term period of cooling. This is a proven scientific fact’.” 

10. Mike Lockwood, Professor of Space Environmental Physics, University of Reading, UK. Read BBC News here:   

The UK and continental Europe could be gripped by more frequent cold winters in the future as a result of low solar activity, say researchers.”

11. Dr. Oleg Pokrovsky, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory: Ria Novosti writes:

There isn’t going to be an ice age, but temperatures will drop to levels last seen in the 1950s and 1960s.

Right now all components of the climate system are entering a negative phase.  The cooling will reach it’s peak in 15 years. Politicians who have geared up for warming are sitting on the wrong horse.

The Northeast Passage will freeze over and will be passable only with icebreakers.”

Pokrovsky also claims that the IPCC, which has prophesized global warming, has ignored many factors. He also noted that most American weather stations are located in cities where temperatures are always higher.

We don’t know everything that’s happening. The climate system is very complex and the IPCC is not the final truth on the matter.”

Read here NoTricksZone.

12. Girma Orssengo, b.Tech, MASc, PhD

These cool and warm PDO regimes correlate well with the cooling and warming phases of GMTA shown in Figure 3.

The model in Figure 3 predicts global cooling until 2030. This result is also supported by shifts in PDO that occurred at the end of the last century, which is expected to result in global cooling until about 2030 [7].”

Read WUWT and read here, and

In this article, a mathematical model was developed that agrees with observed Global Mean Temperature Anomaly(GMTA), and its prediction shows global cooling by about 0.42 deg C until 2030. Also, comparison of observed increase in human emission of CO2 with increase in GMTA during the 20th century shows no relationship between the two. As a result, the claim by the IPCC of climate catastrophe is not supported by the data.”

‘Fossil fuels allowed man to live his life as a proud human, but the IPCC asserts its use causes catastrophic.’ “

Read here at WUWT.

13. Nicola Scafetta, PhD.
Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications

The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030-2040.”

Read here

14. Dr William Livingston, astronomer  & solar physicist; and 15. Dr Matthew Penn – astronomer &  solar physicist

Astronomers Dr. William Livingston and Dr. Matthew Penn and a large number of solar physicists would say that now the likelihood of the Earth being seized by Maunder Minimum is now greater than the Earth being seized by a period of global warming.”

Read here: http://algorelied.com/?p=2706.

16. Joe d’Aleo – Executive Director of Certified Consultant Meteorologists. Read here:  Intellicast.com

Longer term the sun is behaving like it did in the last 1700s and early 1800s, leading many to believe we are likely to experience conditions more like the early 1800s (called the Dalton Minimum) in the next few decades. That was a time of cold and snow. It was the time of Charles Dickens and his novels with snow and cold in London.”

Also see various other articles about Global Cooling under ICE AGE at Ice Cap

17. Harry van Loon, Emeritus at NCAR and CORA, 18. Roland Madden, Senior scientist at NOAA, Deputy Head of Climate analysis, 19. Dave Melita, Head Meteorologist at Melita Weather Associates, and 20. William M Gray, Professor Emeritus, Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University
These scientists came to the same conclusions— the global warming trend is done, and a cooling trend is about to kick in.

Read here!

21. Dr. David Archibald, Australia, environmental scientist:

In this presentation, I will demonstrate that the Sun drives climate, and use that demonstrated relationship to predict the Earth’s climate to 2030. It is a prediction that differs from most in the public domain. It is a prediction of imminent cooling.”

See Warwick Hughes and David Archibald

22. Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov, Head of Space Research, Lab of Pulkov Observatory. See iceagenow.com:

In his presentation called The Sun Dictates the Climate, he indicated that there would be an ice age kind of temperatures in the middle of the 21st century. He showed a graph called The forecast of the natural climate change for the nearest 100 years and it showed the globa temperatures dropping by more than 1°C by 2055. According to him, a new ice age could start by 2014.”

And read here.

23. Dr Fred Goldberg, Swedish climate expert. People Daily:

We could have an ice age any time, says Swedish climate expert.”

and read: We could have an ice age any time, says Swedish climate expert

24. Dr. George Kukla, a member of the Czechoslovakian Academy of Sciences and a pioneer in the field of astronomical forcing, Read Ice Age Now:

In the 1970s, leading scientists claimed that the world was threatened by an era of global cooling.

Based on what we’ve learned this decade, says George Kukla, those scientists – and he was among them — had it right. The world is about to enter another Ice Age.”

25. Peter Clark, Professor of Geosciences at OSU: Read iceagenow.com: 

Sometime around now, scientists say, the Earth should be changing from a long interglacial period that has lasted the past 10,000 years and shifting back towards conditions that will ultimately lead to another ice age.”

26. James Overland, NOAA. Read physorg.com:

‘Cold and snowy winters will be the rule rather than the exception,’ said James Overland of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.”

27. Dr. Theodore Landscheidt. Predicted in 2003 that the current cooling would continue until 2030 [Read here]:

Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8°C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.”

28. Matt Vooro, P. Eng. The icecap.us:

We seem to be in the same climate cycle that we were back in 1964-1976.The last two winters [2008, 2009] have been very similar to those we had back then with all the extra snow and cold temperatures. Once the extra warming effect of the current 2009/2010 El Nino is finished, watch for colder temperatures to return due to the impact of the negative PDO, AMO, AO, NAO, ENSO/La Nina, major volcanic ash and changing solar cycles.”

Good source of articles and data on global cooling, see: Isthereglobalcooling.com

29. Thomas Globig, Meteorologist, Meteo Media weather service. Read here at WUWT:

‘The expected cold for the next month will bring this down significantly by year end. ‘The year 2010 will be the coldest for ten years in Germany,’ said Thomas Globig from the weather service Meteo Media talking to wetter.info. And it might even get worse: ‘It is quite possible that we are at the beginning of a Little Ice Age,’ the meteorologist said. Even the Arctic ice could spread further to the south.”

30. Piers Corbyn, Astrophysicist. From http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/27/piers-corbyn-goes-global-cooling/

Predicting in November that winter in Europe would be “exceptionally cold and snowy, like Hell frozen over at times,” Corbyn suggested we should sooner prepare for another Ice Age than worry about global warming. Corbyn believed global warming “is complete nonsense, it’s fiction, it comes from a cult ideology. There’s no science in there, no facts to back [it] up.”

31. Dr. Karsten Brandt, Director of donnerwetter.de weather service.

It is even very probable that we will not only experience a very cold winter, but also in the coming 10 years every second winter will be too cold. Only 2 of 10 will be mild.

Read here.

32. Joe Bastardi – Accuweather meteorologist and hundreds of other meteorologists (i.e. expert forecasters who outperform climatologists hands-down in seasonal forecasting).

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

Other global cooling articles:
John Holdren Ice Age Likely
BBC News
Global Warming Debunked
Star Tribune
nationalpost.com
canadafreepress.com
news.yahoo.com

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58 responses to “Global Cooling Consensus Is Heating Up – Cooling Over The Next 1 To 3 Decades”

  1. Edward.

    You’ve been linked to James Delingpoles blog, er…it was not me!

    BTW, great article, lots of reading haven’t finished it yet!

    Thanks Matt.

  2. DirkH

    Great list. I’m betting on good old hydrocarbons and nuclear. Landscheidt was the man. Does Corbyn use a Landscheidt approach? I hope he someday opens up his methodology.

  3. Casper

    Warm winters have been abnormally. Now, this winter is going to be normal!
    http://tinyurl.com/3a9ummn

  4. mitchel44

    Are 12 and 29 the same person?

  5. Ed Caryl

    Let the cooling begin: of all the hotheads that were predicting global warming.

  6. John from CA

    Here’s another interesting thought.

    Given that the IPCC is NOT projecting adverse surface temperature scenarios until about 2060 (unless you wish to discard IPCC AR4 findings), all news media articles claiming a current correlation between weather events and AGW impacts should be dismissed as fiction.

    Scenarios: 2010-2030. Part I
    by Judith Curry
    http://judithcurry.com/2010/12/23/scenarios-2010-2030-part-i/

    “The IPCC AR4 projected a near term global average temperature increase of 0.2C per decade. Further, the AR4 showed an insensitivity of global average surface temperature to emission scenarios prior to about 2060.”

  7. Nonoy Oplas

    I made a brief survey of cooling in Asia, same pattern as in the northern hemisphere — China, Japan, S. Korea, HK, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, India,
    http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2010/12/global-warming-hits-asia.html

  8. Jeff

    6 and 20 are the same guy

  9. R. de Haan

    I really don’t see on which theory the 10 year predictions are based.

    We have the negative PDO and upcoming negative AMO at our hands now and at least two weak solar cycles.

    That’s good for thirty years of cooling at least.

    Maybe more!

    Add retired geologist Fred Sauers to your list.
    http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/Ice_Age.html

    And
    Physicist Vladimir Paar
    http://www.croatiantimes.com/news/General_News/2010-02-10/8836/Croat_scientist_warns_ice_age_could_start_in_five_years

    And
    Astronomer Emeritus Prof. Kees de Jager
    http://www.cdejager.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/2010-Variable-solar-dynamo3.pdf

  10. R. de Haan

    For all papers from Prof. Cees de Jager
    http://www.cdejager.com/sun-earth-publications/

  11. MATTI VOORO

    There is some evidence of global cooling not just in theory but also in the field as well.

    PDO has gone negative and cooling since Sept ember 2007
    AMO has peaked and has started its decline again since July 2010. It is anticipated to go negative or cooling by 2015?
    SOI has been high positive [around +20] since July [predicts cold weather 5-7 months later]
    AO and NAO are now more frequently at higher negative levels [AO had record monthly low of -4.266 in Feb 2010 and nearly -5 in DECEMBER 2010]
    Solar activity continues low at near minimum levels
    Most Global mean temperature anomaly data sets show recent dropping anomalies in 2010
    Ocean SST’S are dropping
    Ocean heat content rise has leveled off for the last 6 years [major decline in the North Atlantic Ocean heat content]
    Europe and Asia have had three cold winters in a row [new low record colds set 2010 in many regions]
    European annual temperature anomalies [land] have been dropping since 2007
    UK [CET] annual temperatures have been dropping since 2006[4years]
    UK Winter temperatures have been dropping since 2007[4 years]. Last two winters were record cold in UK
    North American annual temperatures have been cooling since 2006
    Canadian winters have been cooling since 2001[El Nino winter excluded]
    US had one of its worst winters in 2010
    2010 had the 2nd most snow extent for Northern Hemisphere since the1978/1979 winter
    No global warming for a decade now since 2001 per hadcrut3gl
    No statistically significant global warming since 1995 [per Prof Jones CRU]
    La NINA cooling for the next 1-2 years?
    Nino3.4 SST anomaly [-1.5 C]

  12. S.E. Hendriksen

    IPCC (Chapter 14, 14.2.2.2, Working Group 1, The Scientific Basis)

    Third Assessment Report:
    “In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled nonlinear chaotic system, and therefore that long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”

  13. dbeyat45

    No 30 and 31 contain some of the same text, exactly.

  14. Breakable

    Great stuff guys,
    when some denialist will point out than no one is arguing that there is no Global Warming, I will have have a list of idiots to point them to. And by the way I am certain that you are misrepresenting the position of most of the researches in this list, so please take a look at one that you can verify:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming

  15. Colin Henderson

    The new IPCC Scare:

    Rising CO2 levels (which act as a plant fertilizer) lead to accelerated plant growth and consequentially increased evapo-transpiraton. The resulting humidity translates into more cloud cover which blocks solar radiation causing global cooling. So we still need a CO2 tax ……………. to prevent global cooling ;)

  16. The New Ice Age « LIBERTY VIEW

    [...] reason I mention this is because they are warming up for another round of ice age mania. See that here. From now on I will try to give you the conservative view of everything because of that thing where [...]

  17. Joe Bastardi

    count me in too. Previewed triple crown of cooling on national TV 3 years ago and have been using it on all climate related interviews now

  18. Peter

    Sorry guys, most of this is just misinformation or wishful thinking. Go look at the stats – the planet is STILL warming, despite a quiet sun and strong La Nina. Oh, and by the way, Corbyn is no expert in either weather or climate. When are you guys going to get real? A couple of colder winters in parts of the northern hemisphere mean very little unless you are desperately searching for support for a sceptical stance on AGW.

    1. DirkH

      The moment the Met Office employees bet their own private money on their own long range forecasts AND make a profit i will be tempted to consider the possibility that the Met Office MIGHT know more about weather/climate than Corbyn.

      Until then, i am convinced that they, and the rest of the GCM modelers, are not capable of predicting future events beyond a time horizon of four days.

      1. The Ville

        Dirk, climate change isn’t an event, it is a trend that would cause a range of possible events.
        So you have created a scenario that you know is un-achievable, or rather loaded the dice/results/game etc.

        Using your logic, you would be expecting traffic control staff to predict every accident and breakdown, based on a few CCTV images of a busier than normal road. That of course is impossible, but they might be able to suggest accidents to be more likely, although no accidents may actually happen.

        1. DirkH

          Lordy mine. Mental contortions. Only to tell me that Climate Change is unfalsifiable by definition, thanks a lot, i hear that a lot.

    2. Wrangler Wayne

      Events now favor global cooling over warming. An extended solar cycle 24 may usher in a serious Maunder like minimum if the sunspots do wink out as predicted around 2016. Recent global temperature increases are within natural variations. The Earth’s rotation in 1950 was +3 msec above the full day count. In 2010, it was only 0.8 msec above it. This decrease in the rate of rotation supports global cooling rather than warming. Also, the consensus now is that GHGs will not cause catastrophic warming as the GHE is at peak temperature in the presence of unlimited water vapor, now mathematically proven by a predicted drop in humidity in the upper atmosphere (Miskolczi). Global cooling may persist beyond 2030 until the sunspots return in full force. Historical tree ring C14 data correlates well with these expectations, rising CO2 levels do not.

      1. Wrangler Wayne

        Excuse me everyone, the Earth’s rate of rotation has increased, not decreased
        as stated in my previous post, it’s the length of day that has decreased.

  19. R. de Haan

    Piers Corbyn, Weather Action
    You Can’t Say I Didn’t Warn You
    http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/31524

  20. Mervyn Sullivan

    The 2009 report titled “Climate Change Reconsidered” by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change effectively exposed huge volcanic size craters in the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report. The IPCC’s Summary for Policy Makers was therefore biased, flawed, misleading, unscientific, politically motivated and was intentionally corrupted.

    “Climate Change Reconsidered” also demonstrated why that infamous statement… “the science is settled” was the most absurd unscientific overstatement ever made.

    If “the science is settled”, as the global warming alarmists would have everyone believe, then how do they explain why there are so many eminent scientists that do not subscribe to the IPCC’s mantra?

  21. Robinson

    Go look at the stats – the planet is STILL warming,

    Peter, did anything in that sentence strike you as being a little odd?

  22. Nathan

    They call it “global warming” in the summers and “global cooling” in the winters. Oh well.. can’t change it as long as China is here :)

  23. Dave72

    You may have noticed that many of these 32 scientists that question AGW are NOT “Climatologists”, but have real technical degrees in many of the more rigorous areas of technical study.

    Most of the AGW “scientists”, if they even have a degree, are from the bottom of the barrel – they have no history of scientific discovery, innovation, patents, or development of successful computer models subject to testing, and don’t deserve the title of scientist. Few, if any, of them could hold a real technical job in industry, which is why they keep lying and cooking their data, to keep the government grants coming – lest they starve.

    Hansen, suckling at NASA’s teat for years is the biggest charlatan of the whole rotten bunch. Well, maybe Michael Mann is a close second.

    I ran a large business in a regulated industry, and met dozens of U. S. government “scientists” in OSHA, EPA, NIOSH, and MSHA, as well as dozens of their counterparts in European and Asian regulatory organizations. In all of these contacts, I found no one, NOT ONE, that had the intellect or work ethic to qualify for a job in my laboratory of 100+ real, innovative scientists. He11, they wouldn’t even make good lab technicians, because they have no understanding of the scientific method.

    All scientists are not created equal. AGWers are just below phrenologists and astrologers.
    ===================================
    Reply: Many are physicists who would be driving taxis were it not for the government. -PG

  24. Ryan

    Time to pare down your list a few… several of the listed scientists clearly acknowledge human-forced climate change. See the rebuttal that’s been posted here.

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/future-global-cooling.htm

  25. Murray Duffin

    Have just done this:
    Chaotic Climate and the Next Ice Age
    Four items appeared on WUWT recently that started me on a small project.
    1) Someone insisted that climate is chaotic. I think the drivers of climate are deterministic, but their combined results may appear chaotic.
    2) There have been recent mentions of the end of the Holocene from Loutre & Berger (2003) at 50,000 years to Piers Corbyn – we are back in an ice age.
    3) Don Easterbrooke contributed a somewhat controversial paper that included as Fig 5 an excellent GISP2 ice core graph.
    4) Someone posted this link: http://www.roperld.com/science/currentmajorinterglacial.pdf to a paper by Roper that included as fig 2.1 an intriguing comparison of the Eemian with an Antarctic ice core, but GISP2 looks like a better comparison.
    These inputs made me wonder if the recent Holocene could be approximated by a few simple variables, and if it might look a bit like the end of the Eemian. I chose 3 regularities that I had identified here: http://www.agwnot.blogspot.com/ that are long enough to give very visible change, that appear with little variability for the last few thousand years, that have widely different frequencies, and that could be reasonably approximated with sine curves; the 60, 179 (Jose) and 1050 year cycles..
    To generate a composite curve, I then had to choose both phase offsets and amplitudes, that wouldn’t be too arbitrary. I set the 60 and 179 year cycles to peak in the 1940 to 1945 period, with the 60 year leading a bit so that the recent 1938-1944 peak warming would be a bit higher than the more recent 1998-2006 peak warming. (I believe that if all of the warming biases in the surface instrument global average temperature calculations were corrected 1938-44 would be warmer). I then set the 1050 year cycle to peak about 1150 (MWP) and to bottom about 1675 (LIA). I then set amplitudes to be fairly similar, with a targeted increase of 0.7degrees C from 1910 to 1944. Then using “MathGV” I was able to fiddle the following formulae and generate the curves as:
    60 year cycle y = .3sin[5.23[x-.7]], Jose cycle y = .35cos[1.75[x+.3]] and the 1050 year cycle as y = .5sin[.299x], giving me the following:

    Graph doesn’t copy.

    The 1910-1944 excursion looks about right, but the MWP to LIA excursion is more than 2x what the spaghetti graphs show. Possibly my 1050 year amplitude multiplier should be 0.2 instead of 0.5, but the MWP-LIA would still be too great, unless the proxies underestimate the real temperature change, which seems highly likely, given historic accounts of the periods.
    There is still too much regularity in the composite, but it looks pretty chaotic on a 300-400 year time scale. We can see the 1940-45 peak just before the Y axis, and the smaller 1998-2006 peak just after the Y axis, and both the MWP and LIA . Part of the problem is that in the real world these regularities do have a degree of variability (+- 5-10%?) not captured here, and the rest is that there are a couple of additional elements that cannot be represented (approximated) so easily.
    Now is where I need help from one of the computer whizzes out there. I need to add the Deep Grand Minimum (DGM) cycle of approx. 364 years (near 33 sunspot cycles), and a linear trend. I have done this manually on paper, and the results have a couple of very suggestive surprises. Can one of you wizards add these two elements so the resulting composite can be displayed electronically?
    To get the trend, I simply took the downtrend from the Minoan optimum shown in the GISP2 curve, and halved it to represent a world trend. That gave me a downslope of 0.07 degrees C per century, starting from the peak of the MWP. The DGM is a little trickier. I took a 30 year linear temperature plunge at the beginning of a cycle (from +0.2 degrees C to -0.4 degrees C), followed by a ca 334 year linear rise to the peak before the next plunge. I located the current DGM by considering the peak of the 60 year curve, just to the left of the Y axis above, as 1940, and then moving right a little more than one cycle to start the 30 year down at about 2009. I then simply reproduced that cycle forward and back, using the 60 year curve to scale time on the X axis. With these two additions added we have just 5 variables, (all of which are somewhat more regular than reality), and we start to get a temperature curve that looks pretty chaotic on any scale less than 500 years, and isn’t so far from reality. The biggest problem that appears is a severe cooling about 1850, that just didn’t happen, but then, looking at some of the SSB (careful, forbidden term) drivers there seems to have been what has been referred to as a “phase catastrophe” about 1850, which I have no way to factor in, so I have simply smoothed out the 1850 downspike in my manual composite, leaving the Dalton and the 1910 bottoms fairly clear. Given the different “spaghetti graph” depictions of the Holocene, this curve looks fairly good, except for the peak amplitude excursion, which doesn’t affect the trends.

    Graph doesn’t copy

    Some of the interesting results:
    • The MWP and LIA extremes are clearly represented, with the LIA being relatively severe.
    • The 1998-2006 peak moves a little closer to the 1938-44 peak, but stays about 0.1 degrees cooler, which is probably realistic.
    • The 1976-2006 GW is just a little insignificant shoulder on the long rise from the LIA, and we don’t max out until about 2300. The “warmers “ain’t seen nothin’ yet”.
    • The cooling we are now entering looks to be colder than the Dalton, but way short of the LIA.
    • At about AD 2300 we go into a severe cooling, about as cold as the LIA, but lasting a lot longer, perhaps enough for the northern hemisphere albedo to grow to a “tipping point”, leading to the next glacial period.
    So, here is a third ice age prediction. Should it be given even more than a moments consideration? Well there is one comparison that is kind of spooky. Go back to http://www.roperld.com/science/currentmajorinterglacial.pdf, fig 2.1, and zoom in to see detail for the Eemian. Consider that the Younger Dryas event, (I like the meteorite shower/Atlantic conveyer shutdown theory) simply blew the peak off the Holocene, without which we would look like an Eemian repeat. Looking at the GISP2 curve, we have 10 spikes at near 1000 year intervals. (The Minoan to the Roman is about 1300 years and the MWP to 2300 is about 1300 years). It is pretty easy to find 10 similar spikes of the Eemian. Just before the 10th Eemian peak, the downslope goes from about 0.04 degrees C/century to a bit more than 0.1 degrees C/century. My downslope from the Holocene Optimum (ca 8000yrs BP) to 2300 is about 0.01 degrees C/century, and then it goes to about .07 degrees C/century. The change in cooling rate may be too steep, but the similarity to the Eemian is at least suggestive.
    Note that Roper ascribes the long Holocene cooling trend to gradual reduction of polar summer insolation, particularly north polar, in his Fig 2.3. The total polar summer insolation is about to turn down as the north flattens at the bottom, and the south goes into the steep part of its decline. Since the Holocene Optimum north pole summer insolation has declined from about 565W/m2 to 521 W/m2, a drop of almost 8%, accompanying a GISP peak temperature cooling of nearly 1%K Roper also suggests that we could be on the brink of the next major ice age.
    My prediction – 2300-2310 for the last warm peak before we head into the next ice age.
    My request – someone create the composite curve electronically, including the long cooling and the DGM effect as I have described above.
    My hope – some good discussion, picking all of this apart, or adding something to it. Other reconstructions/projections welcome.

  26. robhon

    Since when were D’Aleo, Bastardi or Corbyn scientists?

    1. Robb

      rohhon,

      Piers Corbyn has a degree in Physics from Imperial College and one in astrophysics from Queen Mary College where he published work on galaxy formation and the mean matter density of the universe.

      Sounds like a scientist to me.

  27. Mas

    Stephen Wilde has also been on the AGW fraud case since 2008 …

    http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=1396

    The Death Blow to Anthropogenic Global Warming by Stephen Wilde

    “Finally, in view of the widespread concerns about the involvement of CO2 I should emphasise that if solar energy is the primary driver of global temperature then the only consequence of a stronger greenhouse effect is going to be a slight upward movement of the prevailing temperature throughout the natural warming and cooling cycles.

    Because of the logarithmic decline in the greenhouse warming effect of increased amounts of CO2 there is never going to be enough greenhouse effect from any amount of increased CO2 to overturn the primary solar driver or the regular movements from warming to cooling and back again.

    The only ‘tipping point’ we need be concerned with is the level of global temperature at which warming switches to cooling and vice versa. Due to the much greater threat from natural cooling the higher we can lift the global temperature at that tipping point the better. On balance we need more CO2 rather than less.

    The band of TSI in which the switch from warming to cooling and back again is a variation of less than 4 Watts per square metre of heat arriving at the Earth’s surface.

    In view of the size and volatility of the sun we can be boiled or frozen at any time whatever we do. The only reason the sun seems stable enough for us to live with it is that in relation to astronomic timescales our whole existence as a species is but a flash of light in darkness.

    The whole of modern civilisation has been made possible by a period of solar stability within a band of less than 4 Watts per square metre. It will not be a result of anything we do if solar changes suddenly go outside that band. On a balance of probability it is more likely that the TSI will soon drop back from the recent unusual highs but remaining within the band of 4 Watts per square metre. It would need the arrival of the next ice age to go significantly below 1363 but even a reduction down to 1365 from present levels could introduce a dangerous level of cooling depending on where the tipping point currently lies.

    A period several decades of reduced solar activity will quickly need more emissions producing activity to SAVE the planet yet nonetheless the populations of most living species will be decimated. At present population levels a repeat of the Little Ice Age a mere 400 years ago will cause mass starvation worldwide. Does anyone really think that the CO2 we produce is effective enough to reduce that risk to zero when we have plenty of astronomic evidence of an imminent reduction in solar activity?

    And, moreover, the real world temperature movements are currently a good fit with the solar driver theory both as regards the warming spell, the subsequent stall and the recent turn downwards. The AGW risk analysis process (if anyone ever bothered with one) is seriously flawed”

    More by the author …

    http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=37

    1. Mas

      http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=1767

      “The significance of the TSI point is that it reintroduces solar influence as a factor and probably the main factor in the late 20th Century warming. AGW proponents have usually accepted the warming of the early 20th Century as solar induced so why not the warming of the late 20th Century? If anything the late 20th Century phase of enhanced solar activity was greater than that seen during the earlier 20th Century phase.

      My Hot Water Bottle Effect shows how any apparently minor changes in solar activity can be supplemented or offset to match the observed changes in global temperature trend during the latter half of the 20th Century. Warming proponents often say there is no mechanism whereby small changes in solar activity can be scaled up to the apparently large changes in atmospheric temperature. I believe that my Hot Water Bottle Effect provides just such a mechanism.

      The oceanic mechanism emphasising or offsetting solar variation firmly places the burden of proof back on to those who say that such warming as was observed was human induced to establish exactly how big or small any anthropogenic component was in relation to the undoubted (and previously ignored) combined solar and oceanic influence. Frankly, we do not have the techniques to do more than guess and who would believe them now anyway? The damage they may have done to the scientific establishment is incalculable.

      The more I think about this the more apt the title of my earlier article seems to have been but it is going to take a while for the implications to sink in more widely and for a proper assessment to be made. The IPCC summary is deeply flawed as a scientific document and as I have explained in other recent articles it appears impossible for increased levels of atmospheric CO2 at the puny levels caused by mankind to affect the characteristics of the atmosphere enough to significantly enhance the greenhouse effect and even if it could do so then any such effect would be quickly neutralised by the primary solar/oceanic driver and the oceans acting in conjunction with evaporation, condensation and atmospheric convection (which includes clouds and rain).

      The alarmists are half aware of the potential negative influence of convection, clouds, evaporation, condensation and rainfall because they say that a warmer Earth will have more and/or bigger storms. They can’t have it both ways. Those very storms represent the cooling effect of those negative processes. The bigger the storms we get the less warming we can get. There is a separate issue as to how far warming alone does give rise to more and bigger storms but that is not relevant here. I merely point out an example of the incompleteness and inconsistency of alarmist theory.”

  28. MATTI VOORO

    There is no need to pair down the list. Most saw cooling ahead whether only a decade or three and yes few may support AGW science but they still saw cooling ahead for a decade and some alluded to the possibility of even two. That was evident from their own words.

    Skeptical Science has clearly not listened to Latif’s own words at the climate conference or read Keenlyside‘s comments to BBC

    The statement that “there is no scientific basis for claims that the planet will begin to cool in the near future” is mute. It is already happening and for decade. SkepticalScience better look out the window or the world will pass them by.

    LATEST EVIDENCE OF REGIONAL & GLOBAL COOLING

    PDO has gone negative and cooling since Sept ember 2007 [probably for the next 20 -30 years]
    AMO has peaked and has started its decline again since July 2010. It is anticipated to go negative or cooling by 2015
    SOI has been high positive [around +20] since July [predicts cold weather 5-7 months later]
    AO and NAO are now more frequently at higher negative levels [AO had record monthly low of -4.266 in Feb 2010 and nearly -5 in December 2010]
    Solar activity continues low at near minimum levels
    Most Global mean temperature anomaly data sets show recent dropping anomalies in 2010
    Ocean SST’S are dropping
    Ocean heat content rise has leveled off for the last 6 years [major decline in the North Atlantic Ocean heat content]
    Europe and Asia have had three cold winters in a row [new low record colds set 2010 in many regions]
    European annual temperature anomalies [land] have been dropping since 2007
    UK [CET] annual temperatures have been dropping since 2006[4years]
    2010 was the coldest year [[8.83 C] for Central England UK since 1986 or in 14 years [8.74 C]
    UK Winter temperatures have been dropping since 2007[4 years]. Last two winters were record cold in UK
    North American annual temperatures have been cooling since 2006
    Canadian winters have been cooling since 2001[El Nino winters excluded]
    US had one of its worst winters in 2010[15th coldest since 1895] despite an El Nino
    Record snow or new cold temperatures set in December 2010 in
    Sweden had coldest December in 110 years,
    UK had coldest December since in 120 years
    Germany had coldest December in 41 years
    Armagh, Ireland had coldest December since 1881 or in129 years
    Similar cold records were set in Norway, US just to name a few others
    2010 had the 2nd most snow extent for Northern Hemisphere since the1978/1979 winter [2008 had the 3rd highest since 1967]
    2010 had the highest winter snow extent since 1967 and the extent has been climbing since 2006
    5 of the11 highest snow extents for Eurasia have happened since 2003[2003 was the2nd highest since 1967]
    La Nina cooling for the next year
    Nino3.4 SST anomaly [-1.5 C]
    SUMMARY
    No global warming for a decade now or since 2001[ per hadcrut3gl ]
    No statistically significant global warming since 1995 [per Prof Jones CRU] 15 years

    GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES LEAST SQUARE TREND LINE SLOPE JAN/2001 TO OCT 2010 LAST 10 YEARS [118 months]

    OBSERVED COOLING

    HADCRUT 3GL – 0.0026 C/year

  29. robhon

    MATTI VOORO… Very interesting all that… being that we just ended 2010 as the warmest year globally in the modern instrumental record.

    I’m taking bets with deniers that the decade from 2010 to 2019 will end with at least 7 of the warmest years on record (again, global temperature… you choose the data set, UAH, GISS, RSS, HadCRU…). So, if you genuinely believe that we are headed for a cooling trend, put your money where your mouth is. I will.
    —————————————————-
    Reply: 2010 – 2019? Why not 2011 – 2020? I see you’re spotting yourself a year right from the start. I don’t see much confidence on your side. -PG

    1. Robb

      robhon,

      By who’s account did “we just ended 2010 as the warmest year globally in the modern instrumental record”?

      UAH stil has 98 as hottest, RSS same. GISS data is not in yet as far as I know. So I ask again, who is saying 2010 is thw hottest year in the “modern instrumental record”?

    2. Murray Duffin

      robhon – Please state the amount and terms of the bet, including who will decide and how payment will be made. If all is sensible, I’ll take your bet .

  30. junius

    ‘modern instruments record’ – well I suppose that depends on where you locate your ‘modern instruments’ doesn’t it?

  31. Killian

    If you must lie and mislead, does that not cause you to question your own BS? A little reality check:

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/future-global-cooling.htm

    1. DirkH

      A “cook”ed reality… ;-)

  32. Grumpy Old Man

    @Robhon, 4 jan0206
    UAH, GISS,RSS, HadCRU? Never gamble with a man who uses loaded data sets.

    1. Mas
  33. MATTI VOORO

    robhon
    It is no brainer to have an extra warm year like 2010 during a strong El Nino year. The year 1998 was another such a warm El Nino year. These are natural causes that drive up the temperatures during the El Nino years .Yet there has been no statistically warming since 1995 and temperatures are now dropping. The year 2011 will likely be a cool year with the La Nina in effect .I am not a betting man but you would loose your shirt if anyone took you on. You better do your home work more carefully. There are 10-30 years of cooler weather ahead . Yes there will be some warm years here and there when future El Nino’s happen , but the long term trend[10-30 years] of the future period will not be unprecedented warming but one of cooler weather generally[ watch for 2011 for example]

    1. cassiopeia

      It is no brainer to have an extra warm year like 2010 during a strong El Nino year. The year 1998 was another such a warm El Nino year.

      Except the last half of the year was a La Nina phase! We have had El Ninos before but the trend is still up, and we are making record global temperatures if you dare look beyond your window!

      BTW what happened to ‘its all caused by the Sun’, have we not just passed Solar minimum! LOL Seems that in a few year Deniers will have to resurrect that old myth again.

      How long do you think you can continue with your delusion? How much evidence do you need? Not an infinite amount because your cause is purely political, you will continue to deny if the earth was burnt to a cinder

      1. Mas

        Just say you guys were right (slim 0.01% chance) and AGW will cause a 6c degree rise in temperature, what real harm would that do ? So a few polar bears may have to learn to live on land rather than ice, BFD. Greenland would be green again and more of the Northern Americas/Europe/Asia could become free for plants and man and future Ice Ages could be postponed/minimised. What’s the real downside here long term for the majority of Earth species ?

  34. cassiopeia

    It seems that when the data confirm unambiguously that temperatures have increased, all the data sets must be wrong, and all the climate scientists are corrupt, except a few amateur weather forecasters who conform to Denial !

    Do you really believe this nonsense? I don’t think so.

  35. Mas

    Deniers/Denial is a term used by religious cult faith zealots who have already decided what they believe is the absolute truth regardless of any future evidence. This is the most worrying aspect of the AGW fraud/hoax movement. Good luck on finding a temperature place to live in these cold frosty times the majority of us are experiencing and will continue to do so.

  36. MATTI VOORO

    The evidence for global cooling contiues to come in from all over theworld.

    http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog

  37. MATTI VOORO

    Pierre

    Couple of other news items.

    Latest predictions for AO show again levels around -4 to -5 [like in December 2010].for the latter part of this month confirming that cold weather like December may possibly soon return this month

    Current La Nina is now as significant as the post 1998 La Nina. The latter lasted from 1998 to 2001 or 3-4 years. The 2010-2011 La Nina is as strong as the 1998/1999 La Nina in terms of anomaly amplitude in SST.

    Both along with continued high positive SOI values are possible precursors for cooler weather for the near term and the entire year [or two?]

  38. JImbo
  39. MATTI VOORO

    Futher updates from the Australian Government about the strength of the La Nina, the flooding in Australia and record SOI levels. The attached below is a direct quote from their web page

    All climate indicators of ENSO remain beyond La Niña thresholds. The tropical Pacific Ocean remains much cooler than average for this time of year, with temperatures below the surface up to 4 °C below normal in central and eastern parts (comparable to the La Niña event of 1988). Trade winds are stronger than average, while cloud patterns continue to show a typical La Niña signature with suppressed cloudiness in tropical areas near the dateline. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value for December of +27 is the highest December SOI value on record, as well as being the highest value for any month since November 1973.

    La Niña periods are generally associated with above normal winter, spring and summer rainfall, particularly over eastern and northern Australia. The current event has contributed to 2010 being Australia’s the third wettest year on record, and Queensland having its wettest December on record. During La Niña periods, Tropical Cyclone occurrence for northern Australia is typically higher than normal during the cyclone season (November-April), while summer daytime temperatures are often below average, particularly in areas experiencing higher than normal rainfall.

  40. GBees

    Nicola Scaffeta’s paper “Empirical Climate Oscillations and its Implications”

    ‘It is found that at least 60% of the global warming observed since 1970 has been induced by the combined effect of the above natural climate oscillations. The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030–2040.’

  41. John L. Casey

    Congratulations Matt Vooro.

    You are on the right track.

    Regardless of one’s position on anthropogenic global warming, now that the Sun has entered its “solar hibernation” phase there can be only one outcome: 20-30 years of a new cold climate era.

    You are all invited to review the latest press release from the Space and Science Research Center (SSRC) posted at 5:00 PM Friday, February 4, 2011 and titled, “Global Cooling Begins and Global Warming Ends with Record Drop in Temperatures.”

    This release is available at the SSRC web site at:
    http://www.spaceandscience.net/id16.html

    This important release follows on the heels of another one posted Tuesday, January 25, 2011 and titled “NASA Data Confirms Solar Hibernation and Climate Change to Cold Era.”

    It is also available at the SSRC web site: http://www.spaceandscience.net.

    Under the site page “Researchers” you can see others who have research papers who predict the next cold climate. Some are also on Matt’s list.

    Thank You,
    John L. Casey
    Director
    Space and Science Research Center