Two short items today. One a winter forecast for Central Europe and the other is a look back at Germany’s recent wet and “warm” summer.2011/2012 Winter forecast
Another forecast for Germany (Central Europe) for the 2011/12 winter is out. This one is from Dominik Jung, a young whippersnapper meteorologist for Germany’s leading daily tabloid Bild, read here in German in a piece called: Weather Expert Expects A Shivering Winter, h/t: Reader Ike
Jung believes the 2011/2012 Winter, i.e. December, January and February, will be colder than the mean temperature for the period of 1960-1990, which has been designated as being “normal”. Bild quotes Jung:
Already during the last three years it was up to 2°C colder than the average. If that happens again this year, which we believe it will, then it would be the fourth cold winter in a row and so a small sensation.”
Jung believes that it will be especially cold in Southern Germany with lots of snow and ice. I remind you that Jung is a warmist, and so his words need to be taken with caution when assessing the quality of his science. After all, warmists do believe CO2 is the major driver of climate, and that other factors like the sun and oceans are irrelevant.
Claim that German summer 2011 was too warm is “stupidity”
We just heard that Great Britain had its coolest summer in 20 years and how a number of butterflies died off as a result. Things were not much better in Germany, which just had one of its coolest summers in 20 years. But that didn’t keep the warmstream media from declaring it as “too warm”.
Readers Edition has a short piece here and brings our attention to a video clip of a discussion on German NDR public TV.
The video is some sort of talk show where guest meteorologist Stefan Kreibohm explains why Germany’s summer was a washout this year. At the 2.20 mark the question comes up on whether or not this was an unusual event and if this is the sort of thing we will all have to start getting used to in the future and if we are in a “death spiral”.
Quite surprisingly Stefan Kreibohm answers “no” and says:
It is simply nature’s mood. It happens. There have been summers where it hardly rained and there have been summers where it has rained a lot. This year we happened to have a summer where it rained a lot.”
and over the last 300 years, he adds:
There have always been warmer phases and colder phases.”
The lady then brings up an interesting point at the 3:31 mark and remarks that she perceived the summer to be cool, and so asks how come we are told it was warmer than normal, with a gentleman adding that in June parts of Germany even saw a frosty night. At the 4:05 mark Kreibohm explains:
There’s actually a dispute among meteorologists. The German Weather Service always uses the period of 1960 to 1990 as a reference. This was a time that was a little bit colder than today. So if you compare this summer with that, we see that it was warmer then normal. That’s nonsense – no one understands that. So if you tell someone the summer was too warm, it’s of course pure stupidity. If you compare it to the last 30 years, it was completely normal.”
Well shiver me timbers! A bit of reality here, and on German public television no less! Expect the producers to be reprimanded and Kreibohm never to be invited again.
“German Weather Service always uses the period of 1960 to 1990 as a reference. This was a time that was a little bit colder than today. ”
That comment is quite correct The period of 1962-1987 was the last cold period for Europe , a cooler period that many of us have predicted will likely return again for the next 30 years . The article also points out the problem with norms.If the warmist use this period as the norm to support their flawed science , the temperatures will most likely always show warmer than normal not due to greenhouse gases but due to the 60 year climate cycle when SST and ENSO cycles are releasing more heat . However their game is up and their science is clearly failing because the fundamental cause is not greenhouse gases but natural planetary cycles which are headed for their cooler phase. Ihave found that most meteorologists have to be more honest. Their future business depends on their accuarcy everyday of the week while the AGW types are never held accountable for predicting 100 years ahead . They will not be around to explain their failed prediction.
And as we see when the last 30 years are used there is no warming. In fact globally there is a cooling.
In a previous article posted on this web page [Should Britons buy Bermuda shorts or Long Johns , I said referring to UK,
“During the 26 years of the last colder period , 17 years or 2/3 of the winters were below the average mean winter temperature of 3.6 and about 12 (45%) were much colder and below 3C, Of the 78 winter months during 1962-1987, 41 months (53%) were below average mean of 3.6°C.
What was the main weather factor present during those cooler winters?
Number of winters where AMO was negative: 22 (84%)
Number of winters where AO was negative: 21 (80%) [dec/jan/feb]
Number of winters where PDO was negative: 15 (58%)
Number of winters NAO was negative: 13 (50%)
ENSO years neutral 8 years (30%), LA NINA 9 years (35%), EL NINO 9 years (35%)”
The only climate factor not already present today but which was back in 1962-1987 is the colder North Atlantic Ocean as measured by the negative [cold ]Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation which is cooling[ dropping heat content] but which is unlikely to go negative until the middle of this decade.
” The German Weather Service always uses the period of 1960 to 1990 as a reference.”
In German News, they only ever mention “deviation from the long-term mean” without ever telling you which period it is… Okay, so now we know. It is quite telling that they didn’t switch to 1970 to 2000… or now to 1980 to 2010… the old Hansen trick.
This really looks like a politically motivated scientific dishonesty; by being able to proclaim “It’s too warm!” year after year, they help their paymasters, the government, to push through the CAGW and renewables agenda.
@Matti: “Their game is up”: As Lord Monckton put it so succinctly on Watts Up With That:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/18/monckton-answers-a-troll/#more-47641
“The science is in, the truth is out, the game is up, and the scare is over. Get used to it, get real, get a job, and get a life.”
Amen.
“Quite surprisingly Stefan Kreibohm answers “no” and says:
It is simply nature’s mood. It happens.”
Here I have a very different opinion. It is not a coincidence that this happens at the same time as the sluggish solar cycle, and the rapid weakening of the solar magnetic field. And it will get worse.
I have said it before here . if you use a trough period , like winter[ or like 1960-1990] as your normal period , your summer [1990-2010] will always show extra warming. There is no science to this . However when you get to fall like we are now having and certainly by the time winter comes [next 20-30 years] your scam is up . So you have to invent a new game like global warming is causing severe climate events and even snow and winter itself . You have to laugh at the misinformation being put out if this was not costing us all this wasted money when most countries are huring deeply financially.
More funny energy sources: Wind power through Kites.
http://wirtschaft.t-online.de/hoehenwinde-sollen-strom-erzeugen/id_49892382/index
The usual stuff; new, groundbreaking; not yet a commercial product; but when we’re done developing it it’ll be far cheaper than wind turbine power; and far more plentiful… in other words; subsidize us.
(Company: SkySails)
These people probably do the Brussels-Berlin circuit all the time at the moment to try to get some millions. Probably with experienced lobby talent from the collapsing wind turbine and PV businesses.
Skysails have been very successful in the past; at getting lots of money to produce nothing at all through preposterous inventions. Every one of their inventions ignores (deliberately or through incompetently) real-world factors that make their invention practical.
Only their thought-bubbles have ever flown successfully.
vis the sail-assisted freighter crossing(s) of the Atlantic … lots of media coverage until the ship left port, then … nothing. They overlooked that cross-masted ships have to sail (mostly) downwind, and if the wind isn’t blowing in the right direction, then you’re going to be taking unscheduled detours to get to where you want.
The modern world does not gracefully suffer unscheduled delays of materials, products and people. Even a steel mill cannot go without raw materials; it has to be kept going or the costs of shutdown and restart will damage profitability (the justification for making steel). Although there are stockpiles of materials at such places, they are of finite capacity, a capacity based upon reliable deliveries.
Same goes for product .. which requires storage if there is not way of shipping at the end of the production line.
Now for their wind power sail … which they say unwinds a tether from a drum as the kite rises under wind power … makes sense. Then they wind the kite back closer to the mast. Using what source of energy? How much of it? Even if they modify the kite’s drag, the kite still has to provide anough lift to keep the kite and its tether (of more than 2000 m length) aloft, to stop it from crashing into the surface as the kite is being wound back.
Those people demonstrate no understanding of aerodynamics or of energy.
Here in East Asia Pierre, a friend from Bangkok told me that half of Thailand’s 77 provinces have been submerged in flood for a few days now. In Chiang Mai, the folks there narrated that they experienced flooding once a year before. But since about 2006 until this year, they experience about five floods a year.
In the Philippines, the harrowing experience from typhoon “Ondoy” two years ago and lots of flooding this year too, makes many people cringe just at the sight of dark low-lying clouds.
Flooding may be due to factors other than the rain.
Decreasing the amount of water buffered “upstream” and increasing the resistance to flow “downstream” have a significnat effect.
e.g. land clearing in the mountains tends to increase the propensity for the runoff water to flood lower regions; unless one takes care to maintain or improve the buffering.
Look! Louise Gray (!) from the Telegraph uses the Atlasgate as occasion to list several of the -gates!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/8774818/Exaggerations-about-climate-change.html
I was in Munich in early June. I could only be comfortable wearing my Australian winter clothes and scarf. Few people were eating and drinking outside, it was too gray and cold. So much for the glorious European summer I was expecting.
Just read on Lubos Motl’s site that Austria had summer snow. And don’t forget that the AGW-theory predicts everything, including this event.
Piers Corbyn doesn’t agree with the “Early Snow/Cold Autumn /Winter prediction.
Tells the people behind those predictions are clueless at best.
http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No21.pdf
Karsten Brandt of donnerwetter.de also predicts a warmer autumn. So far it looks like he’ll be right. But he does expect the winter to be a cold one again.