Two short items today. One a winter forecast for Central Europe and the other is a look back at Germany’s recent wet and “warm” summer.2011/2012 Winter forecast
Another forecast for Germany (Central Europe) for the 2011/12 winter is out. This one is from Dominik Jung, a young whippersnapper meteorologist for Germany’s leading daily tabloid Bild, read here in German in a piece called: Weather Expert Expects A Shivering Winter, h/t: Reader Ike
Jung believes the 2011/2012 Winter, i.e. December, January and February, will be colder than the mean temperature for the period of 1960-1990, which has been designated as being “normal”. Bild quotes Jung:
Already during the last three years it was up to 2°C colder than the average. If that happens again this year, which we believe it will, then it would be the fourth cold winter in a row and so a small sensation.”
Jung believes that it will be especially cold in Southern Germany with lots of snow and ice. I remind you that Jung is a warmist, and so his words need to be taken with caution when assessing the quality of his science. After all, warmists do believe CO2 is the major driver of climate, and that other factors like the sun and oceans are irrelevant.
Claim that German summer 2011 was too warm is “stupidity”
We just heard that Great Britain had its coolest summer in 20 years and how a number of butterflies died off as a result. Things were not much better in Germany, which just had one of its coolest summers in 20 years. But that didn’t keep the warmstream media from declaring it as “too warm”.
Readers Edition has a short piece here and brings our attention to a video clip of a discussion on German NDR public TV.
The video is some sort of talk show where guest meteorologist Stefan Kreibohm explains why Germany’s summer was a washout this year. At the 2.20 mark the question comes up on whether or not this was an unusual event and if this is the sort of thing we will all have to start getting used to in the future and if we are in a “death spiral”.
Quite surprisingly Stefan Kreibohm answers “no” and says:
It is simply nature’s mood. It happens. There have been summers where it hardly rained and there have been summers where it has rained a lot. This year we happened to have a summer where it rained a lot.”
and over the last 300 years, he adds:
There have always been warmer phases and colder phases.”
The lady then brings up an interesting point at the 3:31 mark and remarks that she perceived the summer to be cool, and so asks how come we are told it was warmer than normal, with a gentleman adding that in June parts of Germany even saw a frosty night. At the 4:05 mark Kreibohm explains:
There’s actually a dispute among meteorologists. The German Weather Service always uses the period of 1960 to 1990 as a reference. This was a time that was a little bit colder than today. So if you compare this summer with that, we see that it was warmer then normal. That’s nonsense – no one understands that. So if you tell someone the summer was too warm, it’s of course pure stupidity. If you compare it to the last 30 years, it was completely normal.”
Well shiver me timbers! A bit of reality here, and on German public television no less! Expect the producers to be reprimanded and Kreibohm never to be invited again.