Rampelotto Shows Distinct Solar Correlation In Southern Brazil – More Evidence Cosmic Rays Play An Important Role

A Brazilian team of scientists led by Pabulo Henrique Rampelotto recently published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics a paper on precipitation and temperature patterns in Santa Maria in Southern Brazil.

It’s the sun! What follows are excerpts from Die kalte Sonne website.

Brazilian agriculture and climate. Public domain by its author, João Felipe C.S. (via Wikipedia).

The scientists carried out a frequency analysis of two data sets for the time period of 1912 until 2008. They especially checked for natural control factors such as solar activity fluctuations and internal ocean cycles like ENSO.

And what did they find?

You guessed it! Natural factors are driving the trends in Southern Brazil. Die kalte Sonne site writes that the temperature and precipitation developments are characterized by a series of natural cycles. Both data sets show similar cycle lengths. Die kalte Sonne site writes:

Rampelotto and his team found in addition to some short periods of between 2 and 8 years also characteristic cycle lengths of close to 11 years, 22 years and 64-83 years, which correspond to the solar periods of the Schwabe, Hale and Gleissberg cycles (see p. 51 in “Die kalte Sonne”). The results also showed that the 22-year Hale cycle was more pronounced in the datasets than the 11-year Schwabe cycle.  This is an important indicator that shows solar magnetic field and cosmic rays play an important role in climatic processes, i.e. evidence of the Svensmark solar amplifier (see p. 231 in “Die kalte Sonne”).

A polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field takes place every 11 years (Schwabe Cycle), thus resulting in that the original configuration is reached after 22 years (Hale Cycle). The polarity of the magnetic field only plays a role for the electrically charged rays, but not for the radiation fluctuations, which cannot be influenced by the magnetic field. If the solar magnetic field and cosmic rays did not play a role on the Earth’s climate, then the pronounced 22-year Hale cycle would be without explanation.

Another important factor of influence for temperature and precipitation amounts in Southern Brazil is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During El Nino periods, precipitation in the region increases.

The study shows that both solar activity fluctuations and internal oceanic cycles played crucial roles on Southern Brazilian climate during the last 100 years and continue to play a role today. The relative share of these two factors on climate fluctuations is difficult to estimate because their corresponding contributions can vary as to geographic location and altitude above sea level at the particular areas. Here, there can also be non-linear effects, which need to be researched further according to Rampelotto and his colleagues.

A lack of correlation between solar activity and climate development during any particular phase is no reason to doubt the fundamental effectivity of the process. Rather it also may be due to the interactions and overlapping with other climate factors such as internal oceanic oscillations. Such a climate-factor combination of sun and PDO must also be assumed for the global temperature development of the last 70 years (see p. 116-120 in “Die kalte Sonne”).”

More than a dozen solar papers recently!

This of course is the most recent of a spate of studies showing the sun (without which there would not be a climate) plays the lead role in climate change. Also see here, here, here, here, here, here here, here, here and here, to name a few.

 

11 responses to “Rampelotto Shows Distinct Solar Correlation In Southern Brazil – More Evidence Cosmic Rays Play An Important Role”

  1. Papy Boomer

    Typo?

    Rampelotto (fisrt para)
    Rampeletto (first quotqtion para)
    Rampetto (third para up from the end)

    1. Papy Boomer

      As you can see, I am not perfect either.

      Have a good day.

      P.S. I always consult your site the first thing in the morning.

  2. slimething

    Did they ask Leif Svalgaard for permisson to publish that?

  3. Bruce of Newcastle

    About half the warming in the 20thC was due to solar magnetic effects. But 1/3rd more was due to the roughly 64 year ocean cycle. ENSO, AMO and PDO all have this roughly 64 year signal. As does the HadCRUT temperature record, which was at cycle bottom in 1900 and top in 2000, one and a half wavelengths later. Which leaves just 1/6th of the rise left for CO2 and everything else.

    Since the IPCC modellers leave out both the solar magnetic effect and the 64 year cycle that is why their value for climate sensitivity is roughly 6 times too high.

    1. Mindert Eiting

      I would reserve that 1/6 to fake plus error.

  4. DirkH

    Great opportunity to make money. 97% of betters bet that 2019 will be a warmer year than 2009. Lots of temperature bets.
    http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=88690

    1. Ulrich Elkmann

      Haven’t looked at the modalities of the bets…What if you place your bet in €€€ (fiat money, bound to be obsolete by the itme the bet is called; if you do it in Roman sesterces or pieces o’ eight your mazuma will at least retain an indirect value)?

      1. DirkH

        You can buy shares of a position and sell it again while the bet is still running; value of shares depends on the amount of shares taking that position. Looks like the unbalanced bet comes about mainly due to one warmist who bought 200 shares at approx 10 USD in July 2011. So that’s the jackpot for now. The counterposition seems to be populated only by one share. The rest, missing to reach 100%, is the booky’s share. That single-share guy might get nearly 200 times his money in 2019…

  5. Hans Labohm

    Dutch climate/temperature wager.

    For those who can read Dutch, see:

    http://www.dagelijksestandaard.nl/2012/03/weddenschap-opwarming-of-afkoeling

    1. DirkH

      Hans links, amongst others, to Lorne Gunther, National Post, Canada:
      http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/03/07/lorne-gunter-for-climate-cues-look-to-the-sun/
      “According to a recent study by three Norwegian scientists — Jan-Erik Solheim, Kjell Stordahl and Ole Humlum — the sun’s current cycle has lasted so long that the next, due to begin any time now, will see a decline in temperatures of 0.63C. And that cycle is expected to last so long that the cycle after that will witness a temperature drop of 0.95C.”