A Brazilian team of scientists led by Pabulo Henrique Rampelotto recently published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics a paper on precipitation and temperature patterns in Santa Maria in Southern Brazil.
It’s the sun! What follows are excerpts from “Die kalte Sonne“ website.
Brazilian agriculture and climate. Public domain by its author, João Felipe C.S. (via Wikipedia).
The scientists carried out a frequency analysis of two data sets for the time period of 1912 until 2008. They especially checked for natural control factors such as solar activity fluctuations and internal ocean cycles like ENSO.
And what did they find?
You guessed it! Natural factors are driving the trends in Southern Brazil. Die kalte Sonne site writes that the temperature and precipitation developments are characterized by a series of natural cycles. Both data sets show similar cycle lengths. Die kalte Sonne site writes:
Rampelotto and his team found in addition to some short periods of between 2 and 8 years also characteristic cycle lengths of close to 11 years, 22 years and 64-83 years, which correspond to the solar periods of the Schwabe, Hale and Gleissberg cycles (see p. 51 in “Die kalte Sonne”). The results also showed that the 22-year Hale cycle was more pronounced in the datasets than the 11-year Schwabe cycle. This is an important indicator that shows solar magnetic field and cosmic rays play an important role in climatic processes, i.e. evidence of the Svensmark solar amplifier (see p. 231 in “Die kalte Sonne”).
A polarity reversal of the solar magnetic field takes place every 11 years (Schwabe Cycle), thus resulting in that the original configuration is reached after 22 years (Hale Cycle). The polarity of the magnetic field only plays a role for the electrically charged rays, but not for the radiation fluctuations, which cannot be influenced by the magnetic field. If the solar magnetic field and cosmic rays did not play a role on the Earth’s climate, then the pronounced 22-year Hale cycle would be without explanation.
Another important factor of influence for temperature and precipitation amounts in Southern Brazil is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During El Nino periods, precipitation in the region increases.
The study shows that both solar activity fluctuations and internal oceanic cycles played crucial roles on Southern Brazilian climate during the last 100 years and continue to play a role today. The relative share of these two factors on climate fluctuations is difficult to estimate because their corresponding contributions can vary as to geographic location and altitude above sea level at the particular areas. Here, there can also be non-linear effects, which need to be researched further according to Rampelotto and his colleagues.
A lack of correlation between solar activity and climate development during any particular phase is no reason to doubt the fundamental effectivity of the process. Rather it also may be due to the interactions and overlapping with other climate factors such as internal oceanic oscillations. Such a climate-factor combination of sun and PDO must also be assumed for the global temperature development of the last 70 years (see p. 116-120 in “Die kalte Sonne”).”
More than a dozen solar papers recently!
This of course is the most recent of a spate of studies showing the sun (without which there would not be a climate) plays the lead role in climate change. Also see here, here, here, here, here, here here, here, here and here, to name a few.