Papers Showing Sun As Main Driver Keep Rolling In – IPCC Focus On CO2 Looking More Like A Delusional Obsession

Dr. Sebastian Lüning (geologist) and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (chemist) at their website here discuss a recent (peer-reviewed) paper appearing in the journal Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology.

I’ve translated and edited the text in English with their kind permission.

Oases of the Chinese Taklamakan Desert Greened Up In Sync With Solar Millenial Cycles
by Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt

The Taklamakan Desert is the 2nd world’s largest sand desert after the Rub el-Khali Desert in Saudi Arabia. A Chinese-Australian team of scientists lead by Keliang Zhao of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Peking studied the sediment-profiles from an oasis at the edge of the Taklamakan where they reconstructed the climate of the last 4000 years based on pollen. The scientists published their results in March, 2012.

The Taklamakan Desert is bounded by the Kunlun Mountains to the south, and the desert Pamir Mountains and Tian Shan to the west and north. The oases of the Taklamakan react very sensitively to climate fluctuations and draw their water from the surrounding mountains regions via groundwater and surface water feed-in. Fluctuations in the amount of meltwater being fed in are made apparent through the ever thirsty oasis vegetation. The scientists studied the pollen.

Zhao and his colleagues extracted an 8.5 meter long sediment core from an oasis. The sediment came from melt water sands as well as wind deposits. The scientists analyzed the pollen composition from a total of 105 samplings which they extracted along the sediment profile every 5-10 cm. Using pollen data, they reconstructed the moisture and vegetation density in the oasis over the last 4000 years.

The researchers found three time periods where the oases grew and expanded in wetter climate conditions: These time periods were 4000-2620 before today, 1750–1260 years before today and 550-390 years before today (see Figure 2). Interestingly these intervals coincide precisely with the cold phases of the North Atlantic as distinctly described by Bond et al. (2001), the so-called Bond Cycles. Gerard Bond was able to show that the North Atlantic cold phases occurred during times of low solar activity, i.e. caused by fluctuations in activity. In the Chinese region of investigation, these solar periods of weak activity led to wet periods. The last wet period coincided with the Little Ice Age. However, during the Medieval Warm Period, warm and dry conditions prevailed.

The team of scientists therefore suspect that during the wet spells, the moisture-carrying west winds shifted southwards towards the area of investigation. This led to more precipitation in the form of snowfall in the surrounding mountains. The glaciers in the mountains expanded due to the larger snowfalls and globally cooler conditions. This also increased the feed-in of springtime meltwater into the Taklamakan oases accordingly, thus leading to greener conditions. The westwinds in the region get their moisture mostly from the Atlantic, Mediteranean, Black and Caspian seas.

The study is yet another beautiful example of the global climatic impact of the solar millenial cycles (also see our recent article “New Study in PNAS Confirms Solar Impact Over the Last 9000 Years“ and “Solar Millennium Cycles Regulated the Wet and Dry Periods of the Mediteranean During the Roman Times“, also see pages 68-75 of our book “Die kalte Sonne“.

Figure 2: Reconstruction of the moisture development in the region of study using pollen for the last 4000 years. The shaded gray areas depict wet periods in the Tarim Basin. These coincide with the cold phases in the North Atlantic (numbered 1, 2, 3) and solar weak phases, as described by Bond et al. (2001). Chart from Zhao et al. (2012).

 

19 responses to “Papers Showing Sun As Main Driver Keep Rolling In – IPCC Focus On CO2 Looking More Like A Delusional Obsession”

  1. SpaceScience

    Solanki & Krivova

    Can solar variability explain global warming since 1970?

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 108, 1200, 8 PP., 2003

    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2003/2002JA009753.shtml

  2. SpaceScience

    The magnitude of the Sun’s influence on climate has been a subject of intense debate. Estimates of this magnitude are generally based on assumptions regarding the forcing due to solar irradiance variations and climate modeling. This approach suffers from uncertainties that are difficult to estimate. Such uncertainties are introduced because the employed models may not include important but complex processes or mechanisms or may treat these in too simplified a manner. Here we take a more empirical approach. We employ time series of the most relevant solar quantities, the total and UV irradiance between 1856 and 1999 and the cosmic rays flux between 1868 and 1999. The time series are constructed using direct measurements wherever possible and reconstructions based on models and proxies at earlier times. These time series are compared with the climate record for the period 1856 to 1970. The solar records are scaled such that statistically the solar contribution to climate is as large as possible in this period. Under this assumption we repeat the comparison but now including the period 1970–1999. This comparison shows without requiring any recourse to modeling that since roughly 1970 the solar influence on climate (through the channels considered here) cannot have been dominant. In particular, the Sun cannot have contributed more than 30% to the steep temperature increase that has taken place since then, irrespective of which of the three considered channels is the dominant one determining Sun-climate interactions: tropospheric heating caused by changes in total solar irradiance, stratospheric chemistry influenced by changes in the solar UV spectrum, or cloud coverage affected by the cosmic ray flux.

    1. DirkH

      Hint: When copying/pasting stuff, the quotation mark (“) comes in handy; maybe also a few introductory words like “from the abstract of the paper:”.

      I think you’re a badly programmed bot.

    2. Robert of Ottawa

      The other 70% was contributed to by Hansen, Jones et als’ tricking the data and UHI.

  3. DirkH

    Regarding the Bond events (which, according to “spacescience”, don’t exist):
    every 1470 years there’s a Bond event, the last one was during the Dark Ages –
    so it’s about time for Bond Event Zero!
    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/04/06/bond-event-zero/

  4. SpaceScience
    1. DirkH

      I see that you are smart enough not to link to

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png
      where the chart is embedded with a copyright notice stating
      “Copyright

      This figure was prepared by Robert A. Rohde from publicly available data and is incoporated into the Global Warming Art project. Most, but not all, of the original data is available from [3]”

      Notice the name “Global Warming Art”.

      You might deceive a preschooler with this.

  5. SpaceScience
  6. SpaceScience

    😉

    1. DirkH

      Well, I know that graph. Wikipedia is in the hand of the warmists, so what’s new.
      In your position, you’d better believe everything the wikipedia says, it’s better for your career.

      The warmists have a gazillion underpaid postdocs that can edit wikipedia while waiting to press ENTER on their XBox, waiting for the next model run to terminate.

      1. SpaceScience

        Yes indeed, citation from Dirks link (the “peer – reviewed” blog) on ” bond-event-zero”

        From:

        http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/04/06/bond-event-zero/ :

        “And just until I get a better layout done, here is the text from the wiki page on Bond Events:
        Bond event
        From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
        (Redirected from 1500-year climate cycle)
        Temperature proxies from GISP2 plus Bond events
        Bond events are North Atlantic climate fluctuations occurring every ≈1,470 years throughout the Holocene. ”

        Without any further comments…….

        1. DirkH

          Yes, the wikipedia has that sentence right. Does this mean they are not a warmist propaganda outlet?

          Well, the chart you linked to, while omitting linking to the telling “Global Warming Art” copyright information, contains this small mini-graph that shows a Hockeystick, so yes, it’s a propaganda graph made with propaganda purposes, made by warmist propagandists.

          Go ahead, play your tricks, I’ll show your manipulations.

          And yes, people like you are exposed far better and far faster in the light of the blogosphere than in your paywalled “scientific” journals.

          1. SpaceScience
          2. SpaceScience
          3. DirkH

            I’m sure you can go on like this for ages. After all, billions of taxpayer Euros, Dollars and Pounds have been poured into creating the epicycles of warmist science. And instead of saying what you want to say, you want people to waste their time sifting through that ill-founded drivel. Guess what: I ain’t got no time for that. If you want to say something, say it.

      2. SpaceScience

        P.s. The wiki page on Bond-Events….

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_event

        😉

        1. DirkH

          You’re stuck in an endless loop. Tell your handler to reset you.

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