Vienna Climate Waltz More Data
By Ed Caryl
This is my comment on the Vienna Climate Waltz article Pierre just posted. I found the Vienna temperature data from GISS. It is listed under Wien/Hohe War, whatever that is.
My map application drops the pin nearly in the center of downtown from the GISS latitude and longitude numbers (which are notoriously inaccurate). The data file is complete from 1880 to the present, which is unusual. There are only two files in the GISS database, GHCN data before and after GISS homogenization. Here is a plot of those two files.
Figure 1 is a plot of Vienna annual temperature data before and after GISS homogenization, with the difference (the green trace). The difference scale is on the right, all scales in °C.
The homogenization has warmed the past and left the last 10 years unadjusted. This is unusual, as GISS usually cools the past and warms the present with their adjustments. The adjustment is probably for urban heat island effects, though they should be cooling the present and leaving the past alone.
Figure 2 is a plot of the last 16 years with trend lines.
There is a tenth of a degree adjustment for homogenization in the years 1998, 1999, and 2000. These adjustments change the cooling trend by more than 50%.
Curious George requested a 10-year average plot. Here is a centered 9-year average plot on the annual data. (It preserves the time accuracy better.)
Figure 3 is the annual homogenized temperatures with a 9-year centered average.
Figure 4 is a plot of seasonal temperatures (homogenized data).
While all seasons have gotten warmer in the last century, winter has the largest variation, but not much of a trend. I didn’t add the trends to Figure 4, but the numbers are: spring 1.29°/century, summer 1.41°/century, fall 0.73°/century, and winter 1.14°/century.
Figure 5 is a plot of the seasonal trends over the last 16 years.
The cooling in the last 16 years is all from the winters getting colder, at -0.382°C per decade.
It should be Hohe Warte, it’s where the Austrian Met Bureau is situated. It is in the north of the city on a big hill. When the Bureau moved there it was all country and vineyards, but the city has moved up to meet it.
If you want chapter and verse,the go to
http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima
or
http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/en/climate/climate
for the non-german speakers.
here is a comparison of four long observation series back to 1780:
http://members.casema.nl/errenwijlens/co2/europe.htm
http://members.casema.nl/errenwijlens/co2/centraleuropetempupd.gif
GISS dropped the last 2 letters – probably to save storage space; the same kind of data economy that caused them to delete the raw data from before homogenization.
Zentralanstalt für
Meteorologie und Geodynamik
1190 Wien, Hohe Warte 38
Telefon: +43 1 36 0 26
A little judicious cherry picking !!
The diagram below shows the UK Met Office CET (Central England Temperature) data set for the years since 2000.
Over the period here has been a trend of minus 0.8 deg C and a concomitant lowering of winter temperatures of minus 1.5 deg C.
This lowering of temperature over the past 13 years has been mirrored in Europe and also throughout the Northern hemisphere.
Over the same period the CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa has risen from 370 to 395 ppmv.
This would seem to cast some doubt on the theory of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global warming caused by increasing CO2 concentrations.
A more likely catastrophe would be the return to little ice age conditions or worse, which these official data seem to presage.
for the diagram see also
http://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2014/09/12/the-temperature-context/
Note also that the last millennium 1000 – 2000 AD has been the coldest of our current benign Holocene epoch.