Joe Bastardi Sees Possible “Nasty Winter Shaping Up” In Europe As North Atlantic Cold Expands!

Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi has another excellent Saturday Summary up at his Weatherbell Analytics site.

At first he makes some philosophical points on why free markets are so crucial and why so many Catholics disagree with the latest Pope on climate change policy.

That aside, Joe takes a peek at the upcoming European winter.

The current conditions are starting to favor a colder-than-normal winter and so you might want to keep the long johns well within reach. At the 15:45 mark he shows a chart of the new Jamstec (sp?) model for the coming winter.

2015 Europe winter forecast JamTech

The model shows a cold winter in store for Northern Europe, especially Great Britain and a large part of Scandinavia. It’s still early and these seasonal forecasts are fraught with uncertainty. But Joe seems to be leaning toward a cool winter, and so already that is not a good sign.

The reason for the potential cold UK winter is the growing pool of icy sea surface temperatures over the North Atlantic, which played a role in the cold and wet summer Northeast Europe had to endure this year. Here’s the snipped portion of the chart appearing at the 13:45 mark (sorry for the blurry quality):

2015 Atlantic

Joe tells his viewers:

You folks in Europe you watch that cold pool. The fact that it’s getting this far south like this, starting to cool the water near Spain. That’s – the water is warming up here near Iceland – this is gonna promote more ridging in this area of the world. And when there’s ridging in Iceland and Greenland, look out! If that mean trough sinks further south in the North Atlantic, it looks like a nasty winter shaping up, especially for the UK. And we’re telling people that.”

Snow being a thing of the past? Maybe next winter. With a little luck we’ll get a good taste of it in Paris in December. It would be fun watching politicians warn of warming while a blizzard rages on outside. Such an embarrassment of course wouldn’t be the first time.

In the US, charts show a mild start of the winter, but becoming cold beginning in January – especially across the east and south, across Texas.

 

32 responses to “Joe Bastardi Sees Possible “Nasty Winter Shaping Up” In Europe As North Atlantic Cold Expands!”

  1. Schockierende Wetterwarnung: Kältester Winter seit 50 Jahren soll monatelange heftige Schneefälle und Kälte nach Großbritannien bringen! | wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

    […] UPDATE 21.9.2015: Joe Bastardi sieht einen “gemeinen Winter” 2015/2016 in Europa – http://notrickszone.com/2015/09/21/joe-bastardi-sees-possible-nasty-winter-shaping-up-in-europe-as-n… […]

  2. Schockierende Wetterwarnung: Kältester Winter seit 50 Jahren soll monatelange heftige Schneefälle und Kälte nach Großbritannien bringen! | wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

    […] UPDATE 21.9.2015: Joe Bastardi sieht einen “gemeinen” Winter 2015/2016 in Europa – http://notrickszone.com/2015/09/21/joe-bastardi-sees-possible-nasty-winter-shaping-up-in-europe-as-n… […]

  3. sod

    “With a little luck we’ll get a good taste of it in Paris in December. It would be fun watching politicians warn of warming while a blizzard rages on outside. Such an embarrassment of course wouldn’t be the first time.”

    What embarrassment?

    People in Paris should look at the global CLIMATE data, not at the WEATHER outside the window.

    Suggesting other wise, is actually very embarrassing!

    1. David Johnson

      Amongst your other failings, you clearly also don’t understand irony

      1. Jeremy Poynton

        or how repetitively tedious you are.

    2. DirkH

      “People in Paris should look at the global CLIMATE data, not at the WEATHER outside the window. ”
      http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1998.3/plot/rss/from:1998.3/trend

      You can now relax. The world is not warming. The warmunist theory is wrong. You can change from a suicidally depressive maniac into a person who enjoys its live again.

    3. handjive

      Sod. Here is someone who is embarrassing themselves in Australia.

      Maybe you can contact him and set him straight …

      Weather is now Climate
      http://www.theage.com.au/national/climate-change-a-key-factor-in-extreme-weather-experts-say-20130303-2fefv.html

      “A few years ago, talking about weather and climate change in the same breath was a cardinal sin for scientists.

      Now it has become impossible to have a conversation about the weather without discussing wider climate trends, according to Will Steffen, the report’s lead author and director of the Australian National University’s Climate Change Institute.

      The tumbling of records had prompted conversations in the scientific community to turn a corner, he said.

      Previously, ”weather is not climate” was the mantra, but now the additional boost from greenhouse gases was influencing every event.

      It might even be the case that the mantra chanted after every catastrophic weather event – that it can’t be said to be caused by climate change, but it shows what climate change will do – has become a thing of the past.”

      1. sod

        He is absolutely right.

        to make it not a trick, you should not look at the outliers.

        Weather is obviously influenced by climate. So pointing out, that we will seen less snow in Paris (weather) when temperature keep rising (climate) makes total sense.

        Making the claim that a single snow event this winter might contradict global warming or at least “embarrass” the science is plain out stupid.

        1. David Johnson

          As you clearly haven’t noticed, that is exactly what the AGW crowd do, ad nauseum.

  4. Mick J

    Just as well that I have built up the log pile. 🙂

    Will be interesting to see what the UK MET Office has in store for us, this is their Autumn forecast covering the period September through November, they forecast warmer than average. Has Joe made an Autumn forecast for Europe?
    ——————————

    Met Office 3-month Outlook
    Period: September – November 2015 Issue date: 20.08.15
    The forecast presented here is for the average of the September-October-November period for the United Kingdom as a whole. This forecast is based on information from observations, several numerical models and expert judgement.

    SUMMARY – TEMPERATURE:
    For September-October-November as a whole above-average temperatures are more probable than below-average.
    Overall, the probability that the UK-mean temperature for September-October-November will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 20% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 30% and 35% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).
    This Outlook provides an indication of possible temperature and rainfall conditions over the next 3 months. It is part of a suite of forecasts designed for contingency planners.
    The Outlook should not be used in isolation but should be used with shorter-range and more detailed (30-day, 15-day and 1-to-5-day) forecasts and warnings available to the contingency planning community from the Met Office.

    More at:
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/d/A3_plots-temp-SON_v2.pdf

    Previous forecasts can be found at:
    http://web.archive.org/web/20150615000000*/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

    Mick.

  5. sod

    Meanwhile, we find out, that even the scientists of EXXON mobile confirmed climate change in the 70s.

    http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-exxon-knew-about-climate-change

    Is this not a more important topic, than what Bastardi thinks about Paris in December (remember, it is cold in December?!?)

    1. David Johnson

      No, if you want to discuss that start your own blog instead of trying hijack threads here you oaf

    2. DirkH

      sod endorses Big Oil “science”? If it fits your preconceptions right?
      There wasn’t even Global Warming science in the 70ies. There was Ice Age scare science.

      1. sod

        “There wasn’t even Global Warming science in the 70ies. There was Ice Age scare science.”

        No there was no such thing among scientists. As you can see, even Exxon confirmed the warming results.

        1. Moose
          1. sod

            So “Time” is now a scientific magazine?

            Again: Yes, there were “ice age” stories in news papers and in “popular” science magazines. But scientists (even those working for Exxon) already knew, that the future was global warming.

            This was even the scientific consensus back then!

            http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-exxon-knew-about-climate-change

          2. DirkH

            “But scientists (even those working for Exxon) already knew, that the future was global warming.”

            Well I sure didn’t hear from those scientists pre James Hansen 1988.
            The reasoning of pre Hansen/Schneider science was simple: As CO2 is IR active it is one of those molecules which can radiate IR to space, cooling the atmosphere.

            Through Miskolczy we know today that the near-surface IR thermalization and the stratospheric dethermalization balance out and that there is no overall warming or cooling by virtue of changed CO2 concs.

            Now all we need is to jail the warmunist modeler frauds for embezzlement.

        2. Jeremy Poynton

          Well, the CIA were certainly worried about it. And, please, citations for your statements such as “No there was no such thing among scientists”. That is, other than your say so. I recall well the concerns about a looming Ice Age back in the 1970s, and I’m just Joe Public.

          You need to sharpen up or ship out, Sod. You’re a chronic bar room bore.

          1. sod

            why do you no t show me all those scientific articles that you base your story on?

            You recall newspaper stories. That is not important to this subject!

    3. David Johnson

      I conclude it is best just to ignore Sod, because he clearly lives on a different planet from the rest of us.

  6. Lone Gunman

    Quote, In the US, charts show a mild start of the winter, but becoming cold beginning in January – especially across the east and south, across Texas.

    I live in Virginia and this is what we see EVERY YEAR?? Nothing new here!

  7. David Johnson

    Bastardi has a better record than most when it comes to long range forecasts. I hope he’s wrong because people will die

    1. sod

      Joe Bastardi has a horrible record on forecasts. Look at this example of him predicting sea ice maximums:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-G-ozEvSFVg&feature=youtu.be

      1. David Johnson

        Did I say he was 100% perfect, no. However even that is more accurate than anything the AGW lot predicted

        1. sod

          My answer got lost. so i will try again, without linking the source.

          In 20111, Bastardi die forecast a huge rebound to 5.5 million square km. “warmists”, like Tamino did offer a guess of 4.6 mio km².

          The result were 4.6 mio km².

          The data can be checked on the web.

          http://www.arcus.org/search-program/seaiceoutlook/2011/june

      2. Kurt in Switzerland

        sod,

        Did you intend to say “minima” and not “maxima” [maximums] [sic.]?

        Any info on Bastardi’s predictions for additional years?
        How about Tamino’s or misc. AGW believers’ predictions?

        One year does not a long-term prediction make.

        1. sod

          “Did you intend to say “minima” and not “maxima” [maximums] [sic.]?”

          Bastardi was guessing the minimum, but he did a rather high guess (that is, why i wrote of maxima).

          “How about Tamino’s or misc. AGW believers’ predictions?”

          I did provide the link, but it did never show up. It is a “warmist” source and possibly not tolerated here. They even did a statistical analysis of the quality of the predictions of different camps.

          I am rather sure, that you can find the article on the web (Lessons from Past Climate Predictions).

          “One year does not a long-term prediction make.”

          That is true. But i did answer a comment, which told people how good Bastardi is as a forecaster. I could instantly give an example of a really bad forecast. That was answered by the claim, that “warmists” do worse. I could also contradict that.

          Bastardi obviously has a job as a long term weather forecast person. He would not have this job, if he was terrible at telling us something about the next season. But i am curious about any good climate forecasts from him. Has anyone got a link?

          1. Kurt in Switzerland

            sod,

            The correct term for the September Arctic Sea Ice measurement is “minimum” (singular), or “minima” (plural).

            A high guess for a minimum is not a maximum; it is still a minimum, but the difference between the estimate and the actual would be a positive number.

            The Arctic Sea Ice minima come in September. Always.
            The Arctic Sea Ice maxima come in March. Always.

            At least your u-tube video got the term right.

            BTW, whoever uploaded the video to UTube managed to get the year for the prediction wrong (should have been 2012, not 2011).

            It would appear that Arctic Sea Ice “year-to-year minima” are extremely difficult to forecast. The UK Met Office’s predictions were also high in 2012, but low in both 2013 and 2014.

            You might wish to take note that the Met Office predictions for September are made in June of the same year (using powerful computing models), whereas Bastardi made his 2012 prediction in September of the previous year based on his feeling.

            Bastardi is by no means an Arctic Sea Ice expert. His “guesstimate” for the 2012 minimum was a WAG, based on his expectations of a severe winter 2011/2012 (which did transpire).

            You said Bastardi “had a horrible record on forecasts”. Yet you provided one missed forecast for September Arctic Sea Ice extent (made a year in advance) and nothing else. I think that’s called cherry-picking.

          2. Kurt in Switzerland

            sod:

            Below is a link to the UK Met Office’s September Arctic Sea Ice Minima predictions for the past several years:

            http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/arctic-sea-ice

            These are made in June of the year in question. Bastardi made his guess in September of the previous year.

  8. DirkH

    Globalists try to re awaken the climate refugee meme to enforce even more immigration and destruction of remaining nations.
    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/debatten/klimafluechtlinge-wo-liegt-die-grenze-des-zumutbaren-13815941.html?google_editors_picks=true

  9. Alex B

    Well, the winter of 2009/10 got pretty Cold in Europe, also here in Norway, but in Europe the winter gets really cold when the wind blows from the east. Westerly winds only bring less low temperatures with rain and snow. So does this cooled water mean we will get less downpour (as in colder air can’t absorb much water vapour)?

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    […] UPDATE 21.9.2015: Joe Bastardi sieht einen “gemeinen” Winter 2015/2016 in Europa – http://notrickszone.com/2015/09/21/joe-bastardi-sees-possible-nasty-winter-shaping-up-in-europe-as-n… […]