German DWD Weather Service Gets Caught Again… “Ice Saints” In Fact Have Gotten Colder!

In Germany we keep hearing from some that spring in Central Europe is arriving earlier and earlier – due to climate warming.

Unfortunately the data do not support the claim at all, it turns out. Data over the past 25 years in fact show that spring has been arriving later, and not earlier.

Frost

Photo by: Asio otus – License: CC BY-SA 3.0

One anecdotal example showing that spring warming is not what it is often claimed to be is the trend regarding the Central European phenomenon called Eisheiligen – “Ice Saints“, a frosty period often occurring in mid May – typically around May 11 – 15. And this year is no different: this morning snow and frost are reported in many of Germany’s hilly and mountainous regions as a blast of cold air grips Central Europe.

Recently an official from Germany’s DWD National Weather Service told the press that the Ice Saints have been getting warmer over the last years, and immediately without question the German mainstream Truth Press ran the story.

But skeptics Josef Kowatsch and Dr. Sebastian Lüning weren’t sure about the DWD claim, and so decided to look into it. It turns out that quite the contrary is true: over the past years the Ice Saints have gotten colder!

Why is honesty so rare nowadays? And they wonder why some call them the Lügenpresse (lying press).

=============================

The May Ice Saints are getting colder

By Josef Kowatsch and Sebastian Lüning
(Edited, translated and condensed by P Gosselin)

The Ice Saints are the days occurring from May 11 – 15. According to old farmers a cold period occurs at this time and is colder than early May. So we ask: are these 5 days now warmer or colder? The reason for posing the question is a claim by the director of the DWD German Weather Service, Andreas Friedrich appearing in the der Neuen Osnabrücker Zeitung on 21 April 2016:

‘In the past years the Ice Saints have been rarer’. Meteorologist Andreas Friedrich of the German Weather Service has determined: ‘In the last years these cold snaps in May have been fewer…“

Last year Friedrich claimed the same at Focus. where he said the Ice Saints had become the Hot Saints. So we decided to take a closer look.

Because meteorologists consider climate to be the mean of 30 years of weather, we should therefore examine this time period. But first we look at the last 50 years, which is a rather lengthy time period. To do this we looked at the last 50 years of the Potsdam weather station, from 1966 to 2015.

Ice Saints of the last 50 years

The following diagram shows the temperature mean for May 11-15 at the Potsdam station from 1966 to 2015.

When we plot the average Ice Saints temperature beginning in 1966, we see a significant drop of -2°K. Two degrees of cooling is the opposite of warming and this contradicts the claim the Ice Saints are disappearing (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Over the past 50 years the Ice Saints May 11-15 period in Potsdam has shown a strong negative trend.

The Ice Saints of the last 30 years

Next we look at the past 30 years, which is the minimum time period needed to define climate. Over the past 30 years the Ice Saints have gotten significantly colder (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Temperature trend of the Ice Saints in Potsdam since 1985.

Ice Saints over the past 18 years

Especially over the recent years, according to DWD board member Friedrich, have the Ice Saints warmed up. True result: The reality is that for the past 18 years the Ice Saints have become much cooler in Potsdam (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Temperature trend for the Ice Saints over the past 18 years in Potsdam.

Conclusion:

Even going back 50 years is the may 11 – 15 Ice Saints period colder in Potsdam. That is a long-term downward trend. As one comes closer to the present, the downward trend increases, which is the exact opposite of the claimed “Hot Saints”. The scary reports coming from the German press on the supposedly warming Ice Saints simply do not hold any water when we examine the Potsdam data.

 

33 responses to “German DWD Weather Service Gets Caught Again… “Ice Saints” In Fact Have Gotten Colder!”

  1. DirkH

    It is interesting that right at the center of German state warmunism; where Merkel’s climate advisor, “quantum physicist” (meaning, he’s got a larger brain than you) Schellnhofer sits, there is a thermometer that actively refutes Global Warming propaganda – and the superbrain Schellnhofer actively ignores it.

    As usual, Merkel is on the wrong side of history by having such advisors. She seems to have Obama’s reverse Midas touch.

    Stupidity or malevolence? Your call.

    1. Colorado Wellington

      I’ll take “Stupidity And Malevolence” for $1000, Alex.

  2. sod

    It is always the same trick.

    The trick is to start the trend in a high year.

    Is this not getting a little bit boring? why is that last graph 18 years, not 20?

    Why the focus on Potsdam?

    Why does the text not mention, that those 12°C temperatures do not produce any ice at all (apart from some mountain areas)?

    The original text reads:

    ” Wetteraufzeichnungen deuten an, dass die Kaltlufteinbrüche der zweiten Maidekade in den vergangenen 150 Jahren häufiger und intensiver eingetreten sind als in der Gegenwart. In den vergangenen Jahren haben sich die Eisheiligen eher rar gemacht. Meteorologe Andreas Friedrich vom Deutschen Wetterdienst stellt fest: „In den letzten Jahren zeigten sich diese Kaltlufteinbrüche im Mai weniger.“ Die Bauern haben davon im vergangenen Jahr profitiert – zumindest bei der Getreideernte.”

    http://www.noz.de/deutschland-welt/vermischtes/artikel/572883/eisheilige-2016-wann-sie-kommen-und-wann-sie-vorbei-sind

    so looking at 150 years of german data, it looks like the real “icy cold” has gotten more rare.

    And this looks even true in the data presented here: the only years that would have produced significant amounts of frost looks like that early period in the 50 year data, in the 70s.

    you can check the last 5 days here:

    http://www.wetterkontor.de/de/wetter/deutschland/extremwerte.asp

    negative temperatures were a minority.

    1. Colorado Wellington

      150 years, sod? You say there is a warming trend over the last 150 years? CO2 based warming? The trend is down over 18, 30 and 50 years but we must look at what happened since 1866? It’s up, you say?

      And the farmers have profited from the post-Little Ice Age warming, too? Really? More grain was harvested?

      A genius you ain’t, sod. Some of your smarter buddies at least know how to cheat in support of your narrative. They don’t need opponents if they have you.

    2. yonason

      “It is always the same trick.

      The trick is to start the trend in a high year.” – sod the warmunist

      Oh, yeah, I know what you mean!
      https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/screenhunter_170-jun-15-11-10.jpg?w=640
      Truly disgusting what the warmists do to try to deceive us into thinking there’s a problem.

    3. DirkH

      sod 16. May 2016 at 2:39 PM | Permalink | Reply
      “It is always the same trick.
      The trick is to start the trend in a high year.”

      Is this not getting a little bit boring? why is that last graph 18 years, not 20?”

      Why is the graph right above that one 50 years? I guess you complain about that just as well.
      Oh, and now you dislike the TREND…

      “Why the focus on Potsdam?”
      ??? Potsdam Telegraphenberg is one of the most reliable stations in the world. That enough????

      “i do not think that he was talking about a temperature trend. ”

      Now you dismiss temperature trends altogether???? I though warmunism was ALL ABOUT TEMPERATURE TRENDS?

      See, you are a weasel. You don’t care at all about ANYTHING, especially not about temperatures a 100 years from now. You just want your Green communism.

      Well GO TO VENEZUELA THEY ALREADY HAVE IT. I hear they’re all driving Teslas already, now that the evil business owners have been expropriated.
      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-13/scenes-venezuela-apocalypse-countless-wounded-after-5000-loot-supermarket-looking-fo

      1. Colorado Wellington

        “Why the focus on Potsdam?”

        Because Potsdam Telegraphenberg is one of the most reliable stations in the world?

        And here I thought that Potsdam was a sacred place where climate warriors went on a pilgrimage in search of an epiphany but I guess one doesn’t need to go there if they meet a Potsdam high priest somewhere else:

        Edward W Maibach
        Director, Climate Change Communication Research at George Mason University
        Expertise: climate change, marketing, behavior change

        “In 2006, while on a walk in the mountains – with Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber – Ed had an epiphany that forever changed his life. He realized that climate change is the ultimate threat to the public’s health and wellbeing, worldwide, and Ed responded by refocusing his work entirely on climate change prevention and adaptation. Ed moved to Mason in 2007 to join the communication faculty and create the Center for Climate Change Communication. Ed is a highly experienced public health and social change professional and a leading academic in the field of communication.”

        1. DirkH

          “Ed had an epiphany that forever changed his life. He realized that climate change is the ultimate threat to the public’s health and wellbeing”

          Oh noes. It could get warmer by 2 degrees. I can’t even. These people. I guess it was more like
          “Ed had an epiphany that forever changed his life. He realized that climate change is the ultimate source of riches for crooks too frightened to rob a bank.”

        2. DirkH

          Ah, he’s a marketing expert.

    4. stan stendera

      sod off, sod.

  3. sod

    “You say there is a warming trend over the last 150 years? ”

    yes there is, but that is not what i said.

    I said: look at the article.

    and the article says: we have 150 years of data about “Eisheilige”, and it looks like we got less of them.

    There is no temperature trend in that at all!

    This is a discussion of extreme events.

    I am a little bit surprised that you folks do not understand this, just a month after making enormous fuss over “march winter”

    The best explanation is this austrian site:

    http://www.wetterblog.at/beitraege/eisheiligen/

    It does explain, that a calender change moved th3e “saints” forward by about 10 days and it also shows that the phenomenon (sub zero temperature in mid/late May) did not happen in the main austrian cities since about the 70s.

    1. DirkH

      You still have not understood the concept of the end of the LIA?

      1. AndyG55

        https://vimeo.com/14366077

        We live in cold times.

    2. AndyG55

      The poor little sobber still hasn’t figured out the AMO either.

    3. ClimateOtter

      ‘the main Austrian cities.’

      Seriously? You are going to Ignore UHI?

      1. sod

        “Seriously? You are going to Ignore UHI?”

        No.

        If you had bothered to take a look at my link, you would have seen the following:

        “Und selbst auf 1000 Meter Seehöhe (mit Beispiel Seefeld und Tamsweg) oder in wahren Kältelöchern (wie Zwettl) sind Minustemperaturen im Mai eher die Ausnahme.”

        http://www.wetterblog.at/beitraege/eisheiligen/

        Even in very rural and incredibly high places, we rarely get negative temperatures in May any longer.

        1. AndyG55

          “rarely get negative temperatures in May any longer.”

          Lucky, hey… or do you like negative temperatures?

          Move to Siberia… do worms really like the cold ???

          And I notice you are still running away from telling what extra risk there is from increased aCO2.

  4. Jan_Vermeer

    Widespread groundfrosts in Noord-Brabant, Limburg , Gelderland and Overijssel provinces in the Netherlands this morning (-5.5 ℃ at Eindhoven Airport) : http://q30i.imgup.net/GMT_TN10_la235.png

  5. John F. Hultquist

    And from eastern North America, we have …
    After ending the weekend with temperatures 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit below normal with snow in some locations, mild air is on the horizon.
    [accuweather dot com; 5/16/2016]

  6. DirkH

    Good report about the sabotage at Lignite power plant Schwarze Pumpe by Green terrorists from all over Europe.
    The state did nothing.
    Obviously, the SPD-CDU government – in their by now typical disregard for property rights and the rule of law – gives a flying sh$t for base load generation.
    http://www.rolandtichy.de/daili-es-sentials/energiepolitik-erfolgreicher-angriff-auf-kraftwerk/

    1. DirkH

      So we will get more of that.

    2. AndyG55

      They should just shut all fossil fuelled fired power stations down “for maintenance” for 2 weeks, see how the system copes without it. 🙂

      1. Bernd Felsche

        They should just shut all fossil fuelled fired power stations down “for maintenance” for 2 weeks, see how the system copes without it. 🙂

        Strategic “emergency maintenance” a month before elections. Late August this year, then again early February, mid-March and late-summer in 2017. If Merkel’s régime and the major parties haven’t collapsed before the federal election.

  7. sod

    The globe has been incredibly hot and still is.

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/05/uah-v6-global-temperature-update-for-april-2016-0-71-deg-c/

    please do not point out random places which are slightly cooler than normal, while ignoring those 90% that are warmer.

    We are discussing a specific thing here. “Eisheilige”.

    The phenomenon is not visible in German data, but it is in the austrian data i linked above.

    http://www.wetterblog.at/beitraege/eisheiligen/

    But not at the right time, but about a week later.

    But even there, it is also only a downward blip in temperatures today, and is not producing frost and sub zero temperatures.

    The article also explains the cause of the phenomenon: Our regions can get pretty warm already, while the north is still cold. Now if the wind blows the right way, we might get a cold spell in May.

    this tends to still happen today, but without the problematic frost that generated this rule (medieval farmers would simply starve if they lost their harvest to a frost in May).

  8. AndyG55

    “The globe has been incredibly hot and still is. ”

    roflmao.

    Its nowhere near as “warm” as during the first 3/4 or more of the rest of the interglacial.

    The world is IN FACT only just recovering from its COLDEST period in the last 10,000 years.

    By you go on in your fantasy brain-washed little world.

    Its funny to watch you yapping aimlessly.

    Still avoiding the question from the other day.

    “Name me a REAL risk of increased atmospheric CO2 !!

    One that isn’t derived from erroneous assumptions.”

    oh, and by the way…..

    CO2 forced warming is not shown in any real, untampered data since the satellite record.

    The only warming is from Non-CO2 El Nino events, that Europe is still feeling the tail end of.

    1. sod

      “One that isn’t derived from erroneous assumptions.””

      everything that you bring up is an assumption, and the all of them are false!

      “The only warming is from Non-CO2 El Nino events, that Europe is still feeling the tail end of.”

      If you fail to see the warming in the satellite record without the sl ninos, you are blind.

      http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah

      You made a simple error: you did only ignore the latest el nino in that weird claim. But that is not, how the world works!

      1. AndyG55

        There is no warming before the 1998 EL Nino,

        http://s19.postimg.org/f3dhdpmlv/UAH_before_El_nino.png

        No warming between the El Ninos.

        http://s19.postimg.org/nmwvbguyb/UAH_after_El_nino.png

        That means NO CO2 warming signal in the whole of the satellite record.

        Seem it is YOU that is blind.. not just one-eyed, by in both eyes.

        You have yet to show us ANY risk increase from this El Nino warming.

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