“Dominating Factor”…Leading Warmist Climatologist Concedes Natural Oceanic Cycles Directly Related To Troposphere Temperature

Renowned climate scientist Prof. Mojib Latif used to often appears on television, radio and speeches all over Germany to spread the word of an impending human-made climate catastrophe.

Hat-tip Dr. Sebastian L√ľning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt

One of the highlights of Latif’s many appearances was the CO2 “fingerprint” in the atmosphere, which according to Latif is supposed to confirm the greenhouse effect. Up in the stratosphere it is supposed to cool because heat would be trapped by CO2 in the troposphere below. This of course always impressed his gullible audiences.

Profound reversal

However, it now appears that the distinguished German scientist is now changing his mind profoundly. In a recent press release he and his fellow co-scientists in Kiel, Germany, conceded that the cooling is likely more a part of the 60-year PDO ocean cycle.

What follows is the press release from the Kiel-based Geomar research institute dated 26 July 2016:

Middle atmosphere in sync with the ocean

Latif GeomarRelationship between decadal variations in temperatures in the Pacific and the tropopause identified.

26 July 2016/Kiel. In the late 20th century scientists observed a cooling at the transition between the troposphere and stratosphere at an altitude of about 15 kilometers. They believed this development in the so-called tropopause was caused by human influences. Climate scientists from Kiel and Bergen (Norway) have now published a study in the international journal Scientific Reports showing that the cooling could also be part of a natural decadal variation which is controlled by the water temperature of the Pacific.

Water plays a major role for our planet not only in its liquid form at the surface. In the atmosphere too, it considerably affects our lives as well as weather and climate. Clouds and rainfall are one example. Water vapor, the gaseous form of water, also plays a prominent role on Earth. It is the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, without it the Earth would be a frozen planet. For climate variations, water vapor is particularly important in the stratosphere at altitudes between 15 and 50 kilometers. How much of the gas actually reaches the stratosphere mainly depends on the temperature at the transition between the lowest atmospheric layer, the troposphere, and the overlying stratosphere. This boundary layer is called the tropopause.

Now scientists of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, together with a colleague from Bergen (Norway), were able to demonstrate for the first time that natural fluctuations in water temperatures of the Pacific – which occur on decadal timescales – are directly related to the temperature of the tropical tropopause. “It has long been thought that human influences already affected the tropopause. However, it seems that natural variability is still the dominating factor,” says Dr. Wuke Wang from GEOMAR, lead author of the study just published in the international journal Scientific Reports.

For their study, the researchers used observations for the period 1979-2013 and also climate models. “We were thus able to extend the study period to nearly 150 years. The model allows us to easily look at both human and natural influences and to separate their impacts from each other,” explains Prof. Dr. Katja Matthes, climate researcher at GEOMAR and co-author of the study.

A well-known climatic phenomenon is the so-called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). “This natural variation with decadal timescale leads to anomalously high or low water temperatures of the Pacific,” explained Dr. Wang. The PDO influences the climate and ecosystems in the Pacific region and also the global mean temperature of the Earth.

The model simulations show that the fluctuations in water temperatures also affect the wind systems over the tropical and subtropical Pacific. This in turn also alters the air transport between the lower and upper layers of the troposphere, ultimately regulating the temperatures at the boundary to the stratosphere. “We were now able to demonstrate these relationships for the first time,” said Dr. Wang.

Thus, the current study contradicts earlier hypotheses about the temperature variability of the tropical tropopause. As early as in the late 20th century, scientists had seen a cooling trend there which began in the 1970s. They traced this observation back to anthropogenic causes, in particular the increase in greenhouse gases. “However, this assumption was based on a rather patchy data base and simplified climate models. Our study shows that the cooling of the tropical tropopause does not have to be a one-way street but could also be part of a natural fluctuation which extends over several decades,” Professor Matthes emphasized.

This knowledge is also of paramount importance for the general climate research. The temperature of the tropopause decides on the input of water vapor into the stratosphere: The higher the water vapor content in the stratosphere, the higher the increase in surface temperatures. Anthropogenic climate change also has an effect on the temperature of the tropopause, and this effect could become more evident in the coming decades. “Only if we can clearly distinguish natural variability from anthropogenic influences, we can make reliable forecasts for the future development of our climate,” Prof. Matthes summarizes.

Scientific Paper:

Wang, W., K. Matthes, N.-E. Omrani, and M. Latif, 2016: Decadal variability of tropical tropopause temperature and its relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Scientific Reports, 6:29537, DOI: 10.1038/srep29537″

Chart credit: Geomar, Kiel-Germany

 

9 responses to ““Dominating Factor”…Leading Warmist Climatologist Concedes Natural Oceanic Cycles Directly Related To Troposphere Temperature”

  1. Ed Caryl

    They are finally trying to learn something!
    “The temperature of the tropopause decides on the input of water vapor into the stratosphere: The higher the water vapor content in the stratosphere, the higher the increase in surface temperatures.”

    “In the late 20th century scientists observed a cooling at the transition between the troposphere and stratosphere at an altitude of about 15 kilometers.”

    Water vapor content above 9 kilometers (300 bars) has been decreasing since 1948. see http://www.climate4you.com. click on greenhouse gases. Any increase has been only at the surface. If water vapor at the tropopause has been decreasing, the temperature should be decreasing. And it is.

  2. russ

    Water vapour in the tropospheres cloud zone is substantially dependent on the potency of ocean aerosol nucleation of water vapour as clouds. The observed decline in troposphere water vapour matches well with the decline of ocean pasture plankton aerosol production. Without the concentrating effect of aerosol on water vapour it does not transport as efficiently higher into the air, aka the 15-50km cloud zone. http://russgeorge.net/2016/06/20/earths-clouds-keep-us-cool-but-our-clouds-in-danger/

  3. Bruce of Newcastle

    The problem for climate scientists is if you acknowledge the temperature effect of the ~60 year cycle then you have to admit it was responsible for nearly half of the global 0.75 C temperature rise last century.

    That is because 1906 was at the bottom of the cycle and 2005 was the top of the next cycle (the IPCC uses 1906-2005 as their official century). You can see it in this detrended HadCRUT 3gl graph.

    So that means including the cycle in any climate model used to derive equilibrium climate sensitivity will produce a number roughly half the IPCC’s number, ie about 1.3 C/doubling of pCO2.

    Which makes CO2 harmless even before they factor in the Svensmark mechanism.

    So this is a remarkable admission from Professor Latif.

    1. Graeme No.3

      Bruce:
      The most difficult part of climbing is sometime the climb back down.

      1. Mindert Eiting

        This is also the reason young kittens have to be freed from trees by fire workers. They try to climb down with their head in front, which is impossible. Cats can learn the right technique when they grow older.

  4. yonason

    I think it’s the CO2 induced hot-flashes in the menopause that’s causing them to go hysterical. (Makes as much sense as anything they have to offer.)

  5. Dan Pangburn

    Thermalization explains why CO2 (or any other noncondensing ghg) has no significant effect on climate.

    Global average water vapor is increasing. This has a warming effect which is countering the on-going cooling effect of dwindling numbers of sunspots and declining average sea surface temperature (declining temperature phase of the net of ocean cycles). Sunspot time-integral plus net of all ocean cycles plus effect of water vapor increase provides a 98% match to measurements 1895-2015 at http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com

    Increasing water vapor increases the probability of heavy rain and flooding.

    Switching from coal to natural gas adds water vapor.

  6. JamesG

    Gee did they finally notice the stratosphere hasn’t cooled since 1995?

  7. Jamie

    Water conducts and stores heat far better than air. Warmists constantly claim those C02 molecules are heating the oceans and melting icecaps. This is the equivalent of claiming the most efficient way to heat a mug of water is to place it in a stove.