New Paleoclimate Findings Show Medieval Warm Period Across Africa And Arabia…Natural Climate Drivers

Paleoclimate data still spotty and incomplete, leaving climate models vague, uncalibrated and filled with uncertainty

Paleo-climatological data, used for the reconstruction of past climate from proxy records such as ice cores, tree rings, sediment cores etc., have not had adequate geographical coverage.

A comprehensive review of paleotemperature reconstructions paints a picture of warm onshore temperatures across Afro-Arabia between 1000 and 1200 AD.

Lake Tanganyika, Tanzania, where a sediment core was extracted. Credit: Andreas31, CC BY-SA 3.0.

For example although the Medieval Climate Anomaly has also been well documented in other parts of the world, there has been little data when it comes to the Arabian Peninsula and the African continent, which comprise about one quarter of Earth’s land surface.

Too often scientists reconstructing past climates have been overly eager in drawing far-reaching conclusions based only a few datasets, and attempted to adventurously apply them to neighboring regions or even globally.

Climate Anomaly in Africa and Arabia as well

Now a new paper published on Eos.org here by Lüning et al. attempts to fill this data chasm. Their publication “correlated and synthesized the findings of 44 published paleotemperature case studies” from across the Afro-Arabian region and mapped the resulting trends of the Medieval anomaly’s central period of about 1000 to 1200 CE.

The paper is titled: “Warming and Cooling: The Medieval Climate Anomaly in Africa and Arabia”.

“Uncalibrated” and “vague” models

“Enormous data gaps exist,” wrote Lüning in an e-mail. “A high impact study program is needed to close these gaps. Paleoclimate information is essential to validate climate models, which otherwise are not calibrated and remain vague.”

According to their findings, paleotemperature reconstructions from these published case studies show “the Afro-Arabian region experienced climate perturbations, including an extended period of anomalously warm conditions, during medieval times. Because this Medieval Climate Anomaly represents the closest analogue to modern warming, it defines a crucial baseline by which modern postindustrial climate trends can be compared.”

Lüning wrote NTZ:

This work is based on a large numbers of valuable paleoclimate studies. We have mosaiced these data points together and found that the Medieval Climate Anomaly was characterized by warming in most of Africa and Arabia, therefore justifying the term “Medieval Warm Period” for the African land area. An exception was the southern Levant where its got cooler.”

In a nutshell, the findings suggest the majority of onshore Afro-Arabian sites also experienced warming during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and thus the warming was not just a phenomenon confined to the North Atlantic and Europe, as some scientists have tried to suggest.

Outstanding resource

Lüning has spent years researching and compiling paleoclimate data, and as a result has produced a “Climate Reconstruction Map of the Medieval Warm Period“.

Link to solar and oceanic cycles

In some of the records in the newly published study the researchers found that cold spikes corresponded with periods of low decreased solar activity or declining ocean cycles. thus suggesting that solar forcing and changing ocean circulation are the most likely causes of medieval era climate change.

Lüning added:

Climate patterns never cover the whole globe, therefore it is important to first map out trends and understand the pattern distribution. Otherwise the meaning of purely mathematically stacked data series remains unclear.”

This study represents a step toward globally characterizing the Medieval Climate Anomaly, an improved understanding of which will help scientists refine global climate models and improve hind-casting.

Read more at Research Spotlight.

13 responses to “New Paleoclimate Findings Show Medieval Warm Period Across Africa And Arabia…Natural Climate Drivers”

  1. CO2isLife

    How can you have 95% certainty when the data sets aren’t even complete? Slimate Clience is a joke.

    How Can You Have “Certainty” When So Many Factors are “Unknown?”
    Dr. Curry has an interesting post today regarding the “UnCertainty Monster.” Climate Alarmists speak of levels of “certainty” that are simply unsustainable in uncontrolled experiments and “sciences” that are unsupported by experimentation. Weather forecasters can’t predict the weather 5 days out with any accuracy, yet climate “scientists” speak in terms of 95%+ certainty about changes … Continue reading
    https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2017/05/21/how-can-you-have-certainty-when-so-many-factors-are-unknown/

    1. Yonason (from a friend's comp)

      I just suffered an epiphany, thanks to you.

      Based on the most recent results, scientists conclude with 110% certainty that reality isn’t supported by the data.

  2. John F. Hultquist

    Thanks Pierre.
    Interesting report. I’m glad someone does these studies, and that you bring them to our attention.

    Does the “95% certainty” comment (above) have anything to do with the “Climate Reconstruction Map of the Medieval Warm Period” about which this post seems to be?

  3. Jim

    Interesting study, but they also forgot the obvious. Landforms, and the coasts were not the same then. This one at least has a clue. Now, why was it different?

    1. Kenneth Richard

      Now, why was it different?

      Why were the coasts different then? Plate tectonics. And sea levels were higher. During Roman times, for example…

      http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/kent/7648033.stm
      “An archaeological dig at a Kent fort has uncovered the coastline at the time of the Roman invasion of Britain in 43AD – two miles from today’s shore.”

  4. Sorta Blogless Sunday Pinup » Pirate's Cove

    […] NoTricksZone discusses the stretch of the Medieval Warm Period […]

  5. McLovin'

    I understand that sulfates and other particulate material emitted from volcanoes is shown to have an overall cooling effect on Earth. However, with what I’ve read about the sheer number of under water volcanoes and the correlation of increased volcanic activity with solar minina (presumably, more enhanced w/protracted minima), does that not also suggest the potential for greatly enhanced underwater volcanic activity? If so, would such increases in underwater volcanic activity also elevate the likelihood that the the oceans would heat from below. And if this goes on for long enough that it overlaps with the end of a (perhaps long) solar minimum cycle, would this (help to) usher in a warm period following a cool one?

    I actually have no idea. But perhaps someone on this site can provide some insights.

    1. Yonason (from a friend's comp)

      Here’s one link I have on that.
      https://pubsecrets.wordpress.com/2014/05/04/subaqueous-volcanism-ocean-vents-and-faulty-climate-models/

      If I find others I’ll post them.

  6. Yonason (from a friend's comp)

    Dr. Will Happer sets us straight on climate models.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZN2jt2cCU4&feature=youtu.be

    They are useless. But their creators have a solution. If you can’t adjust to models, adjust the data.
    https://realclimatescience.com/2016/12/100-of-us-warming-is-due-to-noaa-data-tampering/

    The real “danger” of Global Warming is setting policy based on the lies they are telling us.

  7. AndyG55

    OT, From JoNova

    The World’s largest economy will still be nearly 80% fossil fuelled in 2050.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2018/02/eia-estimates-for-usa-in-2050-the-future-is-fossil-fuels-and-cheap-electricity/

    I suppose the only argument that could be made is that by then, the USA may not be the world’s largest economy, and China has a fair proportion of Hydro.

  8. wonjinpark

    From oil to solar energy: Saudi Arabia plots a shift to renewablesThe Straits TimesDHAHRAN, Saudi Arabia (NYTIMES) – Life in Saudi Arabia has long been defined by the oil that flows from the kingdom.

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