Charlatans exposed…when sham predictions clash with reality
Yesterday Japanese blogger Kirye prepared a chart (below) depicting Arctic sea ice volume since 2006, the year Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth (AIT) was released, and just a year or two before a spate of ice-free-Arctic-by-2013 (or earlier) predictions were issued by a number of “experts”, which of course the fake news media lapped up.
Source: Japanese skeptic blogger Kirye.
Arctic did the opposite of what the experts forecast
As Kirye’s chart above shows, Arctic sea ice volume in reality has since increased since all the doomsday predictions of 10 years ago. The very opposite of what was confidently predicted has in fact taken place.
Same level as in the 1930s, when CO2 was far lower
Naturally the alarmists like using the sea ice extent chart that goes back to 1979, which shows a clear downward trend because 1979 was at a peak for Arctic sea ice.
However, when we look at charts depicting Arctic sea ice since 1900, we see that today’s Arctic sea ice situation is in fact similar to what we experienced some 80-90 years ago:
Chart: Alekseev et al, 2016.
A false prediction is a false prediction
That Arctic sea ice has declined significantly since about 1970 is not the point here. The real story is all the bold predictions of an ice-free Arctic that were made at the time just after AIT was released, and how they all failed resoundingly.
To illustrate the point very clearly, I used Kirye’s plot and added those expert’s predictions so we can see how they all fare compared to reality:
Total failure of the ten-year forecasts made by “experts”.
Even 10-year forecasts are total failures – can we trust 50-year forecasts?
These “experts” couldn’t even get the forecast for the next 10 years correct. So how are we supposed to take them seriously with their “robust” climate forecasts for the next 20, 50 or 100 years?
The latest idiotic, charlatan quality prediction comes from hockey-stick maker and climate-alarm hustler Dr. Michael Mann, who recently said that Trump’s legacy, beginning in 2024, will be “a charred planet”.
Glaring failure needs to be followed by swift firings
In private industries, where forecasts really count, persons with such a track record of undisputed glaring failure would have been given the boot long ago, and in many cases even sued for outright fraud.
The death spirals and ice-free Arctic predicted for 2013 to 2018 never came to pass. And by ice-free, they implied this would be the case in the later summer year after year.
It’s time for NASA and other climate institutes to clean house and re-staff with serious, competent scientists. As a taxpayer I’m fed up with all the garbage, nonsense and local climate ambulance chasing they’ve been giving us year after year. We the people have the right to get something of value for our money.
And it’s high time we start thinking about suing for fraud.
39 responses to “Sham Predictions By NASA, NSIDC, U of Cambridge, VP Al Gore, Sen. John Kerry Exposed”
Just what comment are you referring to Seb. I recall that the Arctic was going to be ice free by 2018, and then by 2018, or are you just cherry picking. And while I’m at it the 50,000,000 climate refugees by 2010.
While the sea ice volume is the best way to measure the long term temperature trends, it is also very difficult to measure with any precision. The absence of error bars on your graphs attests to it.
Pierre, you are losing it …
That is not what the graph shows.
What was predicted again? Ah yes … sea ice extent in summer would be soon getting below 1 million km² making the Arctic “ice free”. Some predicted that to happen earlier than others, true. But you seem not to be able to imagine how this can happen even with (from now on) constant summer ice volume. How thick would the ice have to be, Pierre? Can you answer that question?
It is the point in time from which on we have pretty reliable data.
Feel free to add the sources where you found the IPCC volume prediction and where Al Gore predicted a volume, etc …
Well, at least Americans can jump around in their Asbestos suits then, right? 😉
Two can play this game. If you pick predictions like these, then I can pick some predictions from your team that went wrong, right? So why should we take you guys seriously again? (per the same logic)
Glad you mentioned the word spiral:
I love these kind of graphs that visualize so clearly what is happening.
You mean replacing actual scientists with people paid for by the fossil fuel industry? It’s not their fault that you are angry and have no clue … it would be sad if financing would follow the idiotic (sorry) views of the skeptics community. Next up: financing of Flat Earth research, vaccination alternatives and solving the question of whether or not mankind really was got to the Moon in the 60s.
Where is this occurring? Or are you just making up stuff again?
Please identify the climate skeptics who believe the Earth is flat, promote vaccination alternatives, and/or who question “whether or not mankind really was got to the Moon”. Or are you just making this stuff up too?
Who do you think are the replacements someone who writes this wants to see in those places? The “right” people! The ones who share his totally insane worldview!
Oh dear …
So, in other words, you acknowledge that you were just making it up when you wrote that the fossil fuel industry is paying for replacements for the scientists currently in place. It hasn’t happened, but you claim it has.
Since you didn’t answer — probably because you know you were making it up — I’ll ask again:
Please identify the climate skeptics who believe the Earth is flat, promote vaccination alternatives, and/or who question “whether or not mankind really was got to the Moon”.
Or feel free to just admit that you were making this up too. (We already know you were fabricating, but acknowledging your fabrication would be appreciated.)
a manic case of DTS.
marks himself as a far-left SJW with zero comprehension of reality.
Tuck away in his latte -sipping ghetto with no sense of the real world except what he reads in his far-left table lining, incapable of a rational though of his own.
Again we see, that when called to produce evidence.. he doubles down on his idiocy.
So headless chook.
This graph may help to explain alarmist thinking…
Except it looks more like this, tomOmason:
Neven is one of the most RABID climate change deniers there is.
If possible he is even more rabid than you.
And Cowtan and Way are Mann apostles.
The FACTS are very against them.
You do know that the Arctic sea ice extent is STILL in the top 10% of Holocene extents, don’t you
You do know that the 1970’s extent was up there with that of the LIA, don’t you ????
Or are you in DENIAL as always?
Are you saying that Arctic sea ice IS NOT driven by Arctic temperatures..
That would destroy meme of the Arctic sea ice worriers.
Or are you saying that Arctic sea ice worriers like Neven et all are just another part of the SCAM ????
Sorry, little trollette, but this graph..
.. actually matches temperatures, while ones you posted match AGENDAS.
ie they ARE part of the scam, either wittingly or more likely, unwittingly .. and you, of course, lap it up like the good little dim-witted headless chook that you are.
When it comes to anything supporting your manic AGW brain-washing, you are one of the most gullible, NON-THINKING AGW trolls there is.
Look at their blogs, seb and JUST BELIEVE.
And of course, even the minor drop in Arctic Sea ice since the extreme highs of the LIA and mid/late 1970s, has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with any human influence.
Strong solar activity, linked to the NATURAL CYCLE of the AMO is more than enough to explain this minor drop in sea ice, part way towards the more normal levels of the MWP and before.
Pity that RECOVERY towards normal Holocene sea ice levels seems to have levelled out to a zero trend over the last decade or so.
But it is to be expected, the planet is only a small bump above that COLDEST period in 10,000 years.
There is absolutely ZERO evidence that humans have had any effect what so ever. Not even the Russian icebreakers
If there was, seb would have posted it AGES ago.
But all he has ever had is EMPTY mindless rhetoric.
He can’t even find the brain or the courage to even attempt to answer two simple questions…
Q1. In what way has the climate changed in the last 40 years, that can be scientifically attributable to human CO2 ?
Q2. Do you have ANY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE at all that humans have changed the global climate in ANYWAY WHATSOEVER?
“not to be able to imagine “
No seb, we don’t take whatever you take.
A side-effect of your anti-psychotic meds, perhaps?
We deal with FACT, not FANTASY.
You should try it, just once in your feeble existence.
“That is not what the graph shows
Positive trend since 2006, seb.
I know you have major issues understand simple graphs, but .. really ???
Poor seb, ignoring al the FCATS of Arctic sea ice being in the TOP 10% of Holocene extants
Only marginally down from the extreme highs of the LIA and late 1970’s
Those times were the anomalies, seb
Arctic sea ice over extent over the last 10,000 years has normally been a LOT LOWER than now.
These are facts that should be used to put the slight drop since the extreme high of the late 1970s into perspective.
Unless of course you are a manic CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER like you are, seb.
“Well, at least Americans can jump around in their Asbestos suits then, right?”</em.
That's a ridiculously moronic statement.. even more so than you usual statements..
Fires were in the Socialist Republic of California, not in Trump territory.
The Californians have brought that purely on themselves, with their idiotic green agenda approach to forest management..
SebastianH asks “Feel free to add the sources where you found the IPCC volume prediction and where Al Gore predicted a volume, etc … “
Simple, both quote their modeled world, and both foresee the Arctic ‘ice-free’. I wonder what volume of ice that means?
Which is from https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2 (I’m sure you can look for it (Kenneth is patient enough to spoon feed you, I prefer not to as you only misread what is provided.)
Al Gore link is my the comment below.
So seb, what’s so catastrophic about loosing Arctic ice? In past times it heralded abundance. Did the vikings that landed then lived on Greenland not believe the weather and climate would allow them to flourish? Or were they too insane enough to believe that the warm weather would kill them? (yes, I’d say that appears to reflect your kind of ‘logic’ 🙂 )
There again there’s the early Holocene insolation maximum with global temperatures 1–5 °C warmer than present day (depending on source), when there was probably no ice during the NH summer months. And yet during this period early humans, and life in general flourished.
Are you purposely trying to be the most dishonest person on the internet? Are you the adopted child of the current title holder, Michael Mann?
Looks like Arctic ice area will not fall below 5 to 6 Wadhams this year.
I’d say just under 5 Wadhams.
That’s 5 times “ice free™”
“Ice free™” being an ice area about 3 times the area of Germany.
MONSTERS UNDER YOUR BED
Sea ice extent and volume are cyclical, not monatomically decreasing.
Wild fires are fewer, and overall burning less area.
Temperatures aren’t out of the ordinary.
Storms are not increasing either in frequency or intensity.
Sea level rise isn’t accelerating.
So what then should we be afraid of?
Oh, yeah. Those clowns. Well, not just them, but all their ilk.
Just a few ‘prediction’, from fake scientists and one other [aka fear campaigners, to maintain their nice well paid jobs.]
2007 Prof. Wieslaw Maslowski from Dept. Oceanography of the US Navy predicted an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer 2013, and said the prediction was conservative. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7139797.stm
2007 NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally predicted that the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer in 2012. https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/12/071212-AP-arctic-melt.html
2007 Seth Borenstien quoted Mark Serreze “the Arctic is screaming!” and Jay Zwally for his over publisized AP piece. https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1907&dat=20071212&id=stVGAAAAIBAJ&sjid=p_0MAAAAIBAJ&pg=1374,2602053&hl=en
2008 and 2016, University of Manitoba Prof. David Barber predicted an ice-free North Pole for the first time in history in 2008, and after that failed he stick to his guns and repeated the ‘Ice-free Arctic’ meme in 2016. Some people don’t understand that when in a hole stop digging. https://climatecrocks.com/2016/07/10/david-barber-on-arctic-sea-ice/
2008 OSLO, Feb. 29 2008 (Xinhua) — The polar cap in the Arctic may well disappear this summer due to the global warming, Dr. Olav Orheim, head of the Norwegian International Polar Year Secretariat, said on Friday. http://web.archive.org/web/20160704153116/http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/01/content_7696460.htm
2008 Al Gore said the Arctic would be “ice-free” by now. “Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during some of the summer months, could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years,” http://dailycaller.com/2013/12/16/global-warming-satellite-data-shows-arctic-sea-ice-coverage-up-50-percent/
2008 and 2010 “The set-up for this summer is disturbing,” says Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). A number of factors have this year led to most of the Arctic ice being thin and vulnerable as it enters its summer melting season. “There is this thin first-year ice even at the North Pole at the moment,” says Serreze. “This raises the spectre – the possibility that you could become ice free at the North Pole this year.” https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13779-north-pole-could-be-ice-free-in-2008/
2010 Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC predicts the Arctic will be ice free in the summer by 2030, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/earthnews/8005620/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-by-2030.html
1990-2012 Prof. Peter Wadhams, head of the polar ocean physics group at the University of Cambridge (UK), predicted a collapse of the Arctic ice sheet by 2000 or was it 2001, maybe 2007, certainly by 2010, or 2015-2016, er … 2030 or 2050?, https://notrickszone.com/2016/09/17/arctic-ice-stabilized-over-past-10-years-sea-surface-temps-plummet-3c-with-approaching-la-nina/ his 2012 paper https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-011-0222-9 , and https://cliscep.com/2016/08/18/more-idiocy-from-john-vidal-and-peter-wadhams/ … and so many more times quoted by the MSM it’s beyond a joke!
Skeptical people have learned never to take what is quoted in the media by scientists worthy. All so often these sciency people are doing is attempting to dupe the public in order to maintain their positions, inflate their egos, and to garner some fame (if not infamy).
The real dumb idea is that the loss of Arctic ice is big issue — IMO it is not! It has happened before, and when it happened the Earth’s biosphere thrived. What is so bad about a warmer world? Nature loves it. A warmer world would not be a catastrophe, it would be an era of plenty. Only abject depressives would religiously believe (for that is all they have) that it could be otherwise. A degree of cold kills far more than a degree of warmth.
Thanks for the article and analysis and thanks also to tom0mason.
As far as I can see, they get extra funding not so much “in spite of” their manically incorrect predictions..
… BUT “BECAUSE OF THEM”. !!
And that is a serious worry for science in general.
And spike55 unfortunately you appear to be correct.
Just to add a bit to what tom0 wrote, it seems to be a necessary prerequisite.
My last probably went straight to the SPAM bin as it contained quite a few links, if you could retrieve, or not as you see fit to do.
Thanks Pierre 🙂
What about the Antarctic? It is reported to be melting.
That bloody huge yellow thing in the sky has something to do with it, methinks. But then again the bods in the bottom half are likely burning more fossils than they are entitled because it is colder than the top half. That is in spite of the fact that far less people live in the bottom half. Something must be done about this looming catastrophe. The whole combined area of Australia, NZ and South America has to be covered with Solar Panels immediately or we will all be doomed to death by drowning.
“What about the Antarctic? It is reported to be melting.”
ALL the melting is above the volcanic hot spots of the west Antarctic and Peninsula
East Antarctic is actually increasing in mass.
Some very ignorant and brain-hosed fantasy-driven twerps, would have us believe the ice shelves are melting from a Southern Ocean warming of 0.08ºC over 55 years.
Wait!!!!! You mean ice melts when it’s over a volcano!?!?!?! Who would have thunk it? Someone alert the media! lol Does Algore know this?!?!
Just what comment are you referring to Seb. I recall that the Arctic was going to be ice free by 2010, or are you just cherry picking. And while I’m at it the 50,000,000 climate refugees by 2010. And let’s not forget the frightening rise in sea levels.
[…] Sham Predictions By NASA, NSIDC, U of Cambridge, VP Al Gore, Sen. John Kerry Exposed […]
This is rather OT but it shows once more that “Concensus Science” can be completely wrong. Maybe you can make a Blog article about this new example of wrong consensus-science:
Best regards, GT
He/She deserves one post per thread: “Go away, Seb.”
It would require discipline ….
I second that motion.
Note added in support of skeptic claims about the Arctic.
“Global warming may play a role in what may be a complex multivariate phenomenon but the data do not show that global warming drives year to year changes in Arctic sea ice area or that the decline can be halted or moderated by taking climate action.”
LOTS of detail, with a boatload of documentation.
[…] er nedanstående diagram över den av Danmarks Metrologiska Institut (DMI) observerade volymen på havsisen i Arktis […]