German Analysis: Near Record Level Antarctic Sea Ice Shows Nothing Climatically Unusual At South Pole!

Yesterday Ed Caryl showed us that the Greenland ice core shows there’s nothing unusual going on with our climate around Greenland. Today geologist Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt tells us the same for the other end of the Earth.
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The development of the Antarctic Sea ice before the satellite era in 1979

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning, Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
[Translated/edited by P Gosselin]

Antarctic sea ice has truly surprised science. Contradicting the models, it has continuously grown since 1979 during a time that the climate models were only able to find scenarios of receding ice.

Today we would like to take a look back before the satellite time. How did the South Pole develop during the time when satellites were unable to continuously and completely monitor sea ice movement?

Information can be gathered for example from old satellite photos made during the pioneering phases of satellites. On 29 August 2014 the University of Colorado Boulder reported on an amazing discovery of old Nimbus photos:

And the Antarctic blew us away,” he said. In 1964, sea ice extent in the Antarctic was the largest ever recorded, according to Nimbus image analysis. Two years later, there was a record low for sea ice in the Antarctic, and in 1969 Nimbus imagery, sea ice appears to have reached its maximum extent earliest on record.”

In 1964 Antarctic sea ice was hugely expanded, while to the contrary in 1966 it retreated massively. And in 1969 the sea ice had returned once again close to record high levels. This is an enormous amount of natural variability.

A team of scientists led by Tingting Fan used the premise of growing sea ice since 1979 as a reason for investigating the climatic conditions in the southern ocean. Here scientists found that the oceans had cooled over the previous 35 years, which fits well with the notion of expanding sea ice. During the 1950-1978 period, on the other hand, the southern ocean warmed up. This was the basis for a long-term ice retreat during that phase. The paper appeared in the April 2014 Geophysical Research Letters. The abstract writes:

Recent Antarctic sea ice trends in the context of Southern Ocean surface climate variations since 1950
This study compares the distribution of surface climate trends over the Southern Ocean in austral summer between 1979–2011 and 1950–1978, using a wide variety of data sets including uninterpolated gridded marine archives, land station data, reanalysis, and satellite products. Apart from the Antarctic Peninsula and adjacent regions, sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures decreased during 1979–2011, consistent with the expansion of Antarctic sea ice. In contrast, the Southern Ocean and coastal Antarctica warmed during 1950–1978. Sea level pressure (SLP) and zonal wind trends provide additional evidence for a sign reversal between the two periods, with cooling (warming) accompanied by stronger (weaker) westerlies and lower (higher) SLP at polar latitudes in the early (late) period. Such physically consistent trends across a range of independently measured parameters provide robust evidence for multidecadal climate variability over the Southern Ocean and place the recent Antarctic sea ice trends into a broader context.”

Already in November 2013 a group led by Loïc Barbara published a reconstruction of the sea ice in the area of Antarctic Peninsula in the journal of Quaternary Science Reviews. Between 1935-1950 the ice receded, and after that there is no recognizable trend. Instead the sea ice fluctuated back and forth over years and decades. The paper’s abstract follows:

Diatoms and biomarkers evidence for major changes in sea ice conditions prior the instrumental period in Antarctic Peninsula
The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has been identified as one of the most rapidly warming region on Earth. Satellite monitoring currently allows for a detailed understanding of the relationship between sea ice extent and duration and atmospheric and oceanic circulations in this region. However, our knowledge on ocean–ice–atmosphere interactions is still relatively poor for the period extending beyond the last 30 years. Here, we describe environmental conditions in Northwestern and Northeastern Antarctic Peninsula areas over the last century using diatom census counts and diatom specific biomarkers (HBIs) in two marine sediment multicores (MTC-38C and -18A, respectively). Diatom census counts and HBIs show abrupt changes between 1935 and 1950, marked by ocean warming and sea ice retreat in both sides of the AP. Since 1950, inferred environmental conditions do not provide evidence for any trend related to the recent warming but demonstrate a pronounced variability on pluri-annual to decadal time scale. We propose that multi-decadal sea ice variations over the last century are forced by the recent warming, while the annual-to-decadal variability is mainly governed by synoptic and regional wind fields in relation with the position and intensity of the atmospheric low-pressure trough around the AP. However, the positive shift of the SAM since the last two decades cannot explain the regional trend observed in this study, probably due to the effect of local processes on the response of our biological proxies.”

In May 2014 a team led by Kate Sinclair published a reconstruction of sea ice from the Ross Sea in the Geophysical Research Letters. Between 1880 and 1950 the ice was apparently stable. From 1950-1990 the ice receded, varied beginning in 1993, but took on an increasing trend, which continues today. The abstract:

Twentieth century sea-ice trends in the Ross Sea from a high-resolution, coastal ice-core record
We present the first proxy record of sea-ice area (SIA) in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, from a 130 year coastal ice-core record. High-resolution deuterium excess data show prevailing stable SIA from the 1880s until the 1950s, a 2–5% reduction from the mid-1950s to the early-1990s, and a 5% increase after 1993. Additional support for this reconstruction is derived from ice-core methanesulphonic acid concentrations and whaling records. While SIA has continued to decline around much of the West Antarctic coastline since the 1950s, concurrent with increasing air and ocean temperatures, the underlying trend is masked in the Ross Sea by a switch to positive SIA anomalies since the early-1990s. This increase is associated with a strengthening of southerly winds and the enhanced northward advection of sea ice.”

We conclude our look at the Antarctic sea ice with an anecdote that appeared in the December 2014 in the Geophysical Research Letters. In the paper authors Jeff Ridley and Helene Hewett claimed that the sea ice trend in the Anatarctic indeed would be irreversible as a result of climate warming. That would of course mean that the increase of the last 35 years would never be reversed. Yet, to the contrary, Arctic sea ice trends are supposed to be reversible. Apparently the authors are anticipating an increase in north polar sea ice. Absolutely curious. Here’s the abstract of the paper:

A mechanism for lack of sea ice reversibility in the Southern Ocean
We find evidence that ocean processes during global warming may result in irreversible changes to the Antarctic sea ice, whereas the Arctic sea ice changes appear to be reversible. Increased forcing gives rise to strong heat uptake in the Southern Ocean, and existing pathways provide an increased transport of heat to the Weddell Sea. As atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are returned to preindustrial levels, the Antarctic ice extent at first recovers, but a rapid change in the position of the an ocean front in the South Atlantic maintains the heat transport into the Weddell Sea. A cooling surface initiates deep convection, accessing the stored heat, resulting in a substantial loss of sea ice, which has not recovered after a further 150 years at preindustrial CO2.”

Warming Defied…Data, Studies Show NO WARMING In Antarctica…Southern Ocean Cooling Down!

No warming in Antarctica. Southern Ocean Cooling Down
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
[Translated by P Gosselin]

In Antarctica if a single piece of ice breaks off, the media worldwide go into a frenzy: How could it happen? That’s got to be climate change. Yes, global warming is striking Antarctica with full force and is rearing its ugly head. Every iceberg that breaks off at the edge of the ice sheet is a sign of climate catastrophe. Amen.

But also during pre-industrial times chunks of ice broke off regularly. This is how ice sheets work: Snow builds up on the continent and then gradually moves towards the coast. What’s new?

So just how much has Antarctica warmed over the last years and decades? One reads or hears very little about this in the media. Therefore we’d like to take this knowledge deficit as an occasion to look more carefully at the temperature history of the great white continent.

Paul Homewood once posted on the temperature development of the past 35 years, using the satellite measurements:

There’s been no detectable warming. It was cold earlier and it is cold today! No Trend.

Perhaps the thermometer at the Amundsen Scott Base at the South Pole has found warming? Based on GISS data, Paul Homewood generated the following curve:

Also in the region of the South Pole station there has been no detectable warming, and that over the past 50 years.

In the next step we leave the mainland and examine the ocean to see if it may have warmed around Antarctica. Bob Tisdale put together the temperature curve based on the KNMI Climate Explorer data:

Again we find no warming here as well. To the contrary the Southern Ocean has even cooled over the past 35 years.

In June 2014 Marshall et al. confirmed the cooling trend in a Paper in the Philosphical Transactions A. The abstract states:

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. 

In the paper’s main section the authors add:

Over the last few decades, the two polar regions of our planet have exhibited strikingly different behaviours, as is evident in observed decadal trends in surface air temperature shown in figure 1. The Arctic has warmed, much more than in the global average, primarily in winter, while Arctic sea-ice extent has decreased dramatically. By contrast, the eastern Antarctic and Antarctic plateau have cooled, primarily in summer, with warming over the Antarctic Peninsula and Patagonia . Moreover, sea-ice extent around Antarctica has modestly increased.

Appearing in the same year in the Annals of Glaciology was a paper by Ekaykin et al., where the temperature development of Central Antarctica was reconstructed over the past 350 years. The researchers found characteristic 30-50 years cycles. Interestingly it was warmer than today back in the 1940s than today. The following is the paper’s abstract:

Multiple climate shifts in the Southern Hemisphere over the past three centuries based on central Antarctic snow pits and core studies
Based on the results of geochemical and glaciological investigations in snow pits and shallow cores, regional stack series of air temperature in central Antarctica (in the southern part of Vostok Subglacial Lake) were obtained, covering the last 350 years. It is shown that this parameter varied quasi-periodically with a wavelength of 30–50 years. The correlation of the newly obtained record with the circulation indices of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) shows that the central Antarctic climate is mainly governed by the type of circulation in the SH: under conditions of zonal circulation, negative anomalies of temperature and precipitation rate are observed, whereas the sign of the anomalies is positive during meridional circulation. In the 1970s the sign of the relationship between many climatic parameters changed, which is likely related to the rearrangement of the climatic system of the SH. The data suggest that during the past 350 years such events have taken place at least five times. The stable water isotope content of the central Antarctic snow is governed by the summer temperature rather than the mean annual temperature, which is interpreted as the influence of ‘post-depositional’ effects.

And when we look even further back in the past, we find more surprises. During the last interglacial, the Eem Warm Period of 130,000 years ago, it was 3.5 to 4.0°C warmer than today. This was reported by Parennin et al. in a publication appearing in February 2015 in the Climate of the Past Discussions.

On this matter a paper by Conway et al. appearing in 1999 in Science is interesting. Back then the authors recognized that the West Antarctic ice sheet shrank foremost during the mid Holocene, i.e. some 5000 years ago. The scientists suspect that the melting process started already during the early Holocene some 10,000 years ago and has continued on without any external influences until today:

Past and Future Grounding-Line Retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
The history of deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) gives clues about its future. Southward grounding-line migration was dated past three locations in the Ross Sea Embayment. Results indicate that most recession occurred during the middle to late Holocene in the absence of substantial sea level or climate forcing. Current grounding-line retreat may reflect ongoing ice recession that has been under way since the early Holocene. If so, the WAIS could continue to retreat even in the absence of further external forcing.

Today we would like to conclude with a curious “discovery” On May 23, 2014. Spiegel Online brought us a frightening climate alarm story:

Ice melt: Irreversible chain reaction feared in Antarctica
[…] “A large piece of the ice cap in West Antarctica finds itself at a stage or irreversible retreat,” NASA scientist Eric Rignot of the University of California, Irvine. In the previous calculations by the IPCC concerning sea level rise the phenomenon was not adequately taken into account. In a study that was recently published in the “Geophysical Research Letters” the scientists lead by Rignot studied the retreat of all six large glaciers.”

Just awful…so, who brings us this terrible news? Does Eric Rignot really know what he’s doing? Hold on to your seat: Rignot is in fact not a climate scientist. He’s an electrical engineer…just in case someone complains later on that a non-Phd does not qualify anyone to participate in the climate discussion…

Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research (PIK) Study Finds Natural Factors Are “Underestimated”!

I got a big kick out of the press release that follows below, published by the hopelessly alarmist PIK.

Three times it uses the word “however” to tell readers that things really aren’t like what they just wrote in the sentence before.  The emphasis in the press release is my own.
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University of Giessen: Natural Temperature Fluctuations in Antarctica Underestimated
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning, Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt

What follows is a joint press release from the Justus-Liebig-University in Gießen (JLU), the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the University of Hamburg from 16 April 2015:
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Climate change in Antarctica: Natural temperature variability underestimated – Cold spell superimposes man-made warming
04/16/2015 – The Antarctic ice sheet is one of the tipping elements in the climate system and hence of vital importance for our planet’s future under man-made climate change. Even a partial melting of the enormous ice masses of Antarctica would raise sea-levels substantially. Therefore it is of utmost importance to provide sound knowledge on the extent of anthropogenic warming of the ice-covered continent. A new analysis by German physicists shows that the uncertainties in the temperature trends over Antarctica are larger than previously estimated. ‘So far it seemed there were hardly any major natural temperature fluctuations in Antarctica, so almost every rise in temperature was attributed to human influence,’ says Armin Bunde of Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU). ‘Global warming as a result of our greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels is a fact. However, the human influence on the warming of West Antarctica is much smaller than previously thought. The warming of East Antarctica up to now can even be explained by natural variability alone.’ The results of their study are now published in the journal Climate Dynamics.

The melting of Antarctic ice shelves is not only influenced by warming air but also by warming oceans, causing ice loss at the coast. However, as there are no sufficient long-term records for Antarctic ocean warming yet, the study focuses on air temperature trends. In collaboration with Hans Joachim Schellnhuber of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Christian Franzke of the Cluster of Excellence ‘Integrated Climate System Analysis and Prediction’ (CliSAP) of Hamburg University, the physicists of JLU Armin Bunde and Josef Luderer were able to show that there are major and very persistent temperature fluctuations in Antarctica.

‘The climate in Antarctica, just like the global climate, tends to be distinctly persistent by nature – it remains in certain temperature ranges for a long time before it changes. This creates a temporal temperature structure of highs and lows,’ explains Christian Franzke. ‘A low, i.e. a longer cold period, will be followed by a longer warm period, and this natural warming has to be differentiated from the superimposed anthropogenic warming,’ adds Armin Bunde. The scientists did not only analyze data from individual measuring stations but also generated regional averages. The results show a human influence on the warming of West Antarctica, while this influence is weaker than previously thought. However, the warming of Antarctica altogether will likely increase more strongly soon.

For several years temperatures in Antarctica, but also globally, have been increasing less rapidly than in the 1990s. There are a number of reasons for this, e.g. the oceans buffering warmth. The study now published by the German team of scientists shows that man-made global warming has not been pausing – it was temporarily superimposed and therefore hidden by long-term natural climate fluctuations like in Antarctica. ‘Our estimates show that we are currently facing a natural cooling period– while temperatures nonetheless rise slowly but inexorably, due to our heating up the atmosphere by emitting greenhouse gas emissions,’ explains Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. ‘At the end of this natural cold spell temperatures will rise even more fiercely. Globally, but also in Antarctica which therefore is in danger of tipping.’  In fact, in March 2015 two Antarctic measuring stations registered high-temperature records.

Article: Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Franzke, C., Schellnhuber, H.J. (2015): Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of West Antarctica. Climate Dynamics. [DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2582-5]

Link to the article: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2582-5″

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Remarks by Die kalte Sonne editors: An excellent press release which brings up the so far under-estimated importance of natural climate functions. The key sentence:

A low, i.e. a longer cold period, will be followed by a longer warm period, and this natural warming has to be differentiated from the superimposed anthropogenic warming,”

The last paragraph bears the signature of the PIK and was likely a requirement for a mutual press release with the other institutes. The desperate remark concerning the recent Antarctic record levels has little climate relevance. At the South Pole temperatures have been falling for more than 50 years.

No Sign Of Warming: Global Sea Ice Well Below Normal Only 4 Of Last 36 Years…Normal Over Last 2.5 Years!

NoTricksZone is finally back online after having been unavailable for some 32 or so hours.

Apparently a WordPress version update “had faultily written the htaccess file“, the host company has just informed me. Don’t ask me what that is supposed to mean.  At any rate, the problem seems to be resolved, and we’re well back in the “denial” business. :)

I’m short on time today and so this post will be a short one.

Awhile back I wrote a piece here about global sea ice. When one examines the chart objectively, one finds no sign of any global warming – assuming that it is an indication of global temperature as the warmists like to tell us (especially when sea ice shrinks).

global sea_ice_area_4 2015

Global sea ice shows no sign of any global warming. Source: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/dpuf.

Again we note that sea ice has been normal for over 2 years now. Antarctica has been constantly above normal for a long period of 3 years – something that is unprecedented and a record since satellite measurements began.

And when one really looks honestly and objectively at the above chart above, we see that global sea ice has been markedly below normal only about 4 of 36 years: half of 2006, 2007, half of 2010, 2011 and half of 2012. That’s 3.5 years – but we can round it up to four whole years out of 36.

One could argue 2002 should be included, but the amount is not significantly below normal. In 2008 there was only a sharp but brief dip.  The last 4 years have seen a strong upward trend. Four years of course is too short to draw any conclusions (except when the ice melts).

The bottom line: Global sea ice shows no signs of a globe that is experiencing galloping warming.

 

Data Plainly Show No Correlation Between Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations And Global Sea Ice!

The poles, we are told, are supposed to be the tell-tale barometer of global warming. No place is supposed to warm up as quickly as the poles.

And because there are practically no thermometers to speak of at both the North and South poles, we need a better way of getting an idea of how temperature is behaving at these remote yet “sensitive” regions of our planet.

Because ice melts when it’s warmer and freezes when it’s colder, polar sea ice cover could act as a good measurement tool in place of the mercury thermometer. Not only does it indicate air temperatures, but also water temperatures beneath the ice. It can be argued that sea ice extent is indeed a better way of measuring overall temperature than mercury thermometers. Fortunately NASA has been taking satellite excellent photos of both poles since 1979 and thus we have an accurate record of sea ice spanning 35 years.

As CO2 rises, global warming is claimed to be enhanced, and thus the poles should be warming, disproportionately many scientists claim, compared to other regions like those located near the equator. We should see it in the global sea ice record.

The following is a plot of CO2 vs global sea ice extent since 1979:

CO2 vs sea ice

 Graphic formed by combining WoodForTrees CO2 plot and the U. of Illinois sea ice anomaly plot.

The above chart shows that today’s global sea ice is basically at the same level as it was 35 years ago, back when CO2 was below 350 ppm. Moreover the overall trend is flat. There’s no correlation. CO2 has not caused sea ice to melt like it has been claimed to do. Not even close! The melting that did occur was very short in duration, less than 5 years, from 2005 to 2008.

The whole scare of a polar meltdown has been nothing but a huge load of bovine manure. The whole thing has been nothing but widespread hysteria in the collective paranoid mind of a society fanned by high tech, highly funded swindlers and a complicit media class.

The whole global warming scare arguably has been a power grab by an elitist cabal of lying bureaucrats who have deluded themselves into thinking they have all the answers and solutions.

It’s high time that the new generation of politicians start calling it out.

 

Clear And Gathering Evidence Of Cooling: Three-Year Mean Antarctic Sea Ice Highest On Satellite Record!

Now that it’s spring, it’s as good a time as any to look at polar sea ice. Climate scientists have told us time and again that global warming would first be been at the Earth’s poles.

Well, if that is true, then we need to start worrying about cooling.

In the Arctic the following chart shows a clear stabilization taking place over the past 8 years with an upward trend over the last five years:

Source: Cryosphere Today, Arctic Climate Research, University of Illinois

It needs to be pointed out that there are many factors impacting sea ice. Among them are ocean currents and cycles, and prevailing weather patterns. In summary, however, the once feared “death spiral” remains totally absent.

Had the past five years been centered about the -1.75 million sq km anomaly in the Arctic, then the warmists may have had a point. But that is not the case as the Arctic sea ice is close to 1 million square kilometers above the alarm level.

A number of high-profile scientists and meteorologists also are now projecting growth in Arctic sea ice over the next 10-20 years as major oceanic oscillations shift to their cooler phases.

Record-smashing Antarctica, warming totally AWOL

If you are a global warming alarmist, then the situation is even more confounding at the south end of the Earth. Especially at the Earth’s southern pole is warming totally AWOL.

Antarctic sea ice 4 2015

Source: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere

Because Antarctica is surrounded by water, trends there do behave differently then what goes on in the land-surrounded Arctic.

Consider the following stunning points about Antarctica:

1. Antarctic sea ice has been above normal for almost 3 years uninterrupted.
2. Three years uninterrupted above normal sea ice is unprecedented over the satellite record.
3. Record after record sea ice highs have been set during that period.
4. The trend for the last 10 years has been stunningly strong.
5. The long-term 30-year trend is strongly upwards.

From Antarctic sea ice trends, there’s absolutely no indication that there’s any warming going on down there. If scientists had been warning of cooling, they’d be having a much easier time today convincing the public.

Indeed Antarctica is the very place that AGW alarmist scientists don’t want anyone to look at. In fact today there’s almost no climate data they want you to see – only the “adjusted” surface temperatures that they themselves cook, manipulate and alter.

Global sea ice trend positive since 2006!

Finally charts and data on total global sea ice show absolutely no alarm. Global sea ice has been at a normal level for almost 3 years now. Overall the recent trend is upward, thus indicating cooling – and not warming:

Global sea ice 2015_4

Source: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere

The above global sea ice anomaly chart shows that there was a brief downward trend from 2004 to 2012, but that loss has since been completely wiped out. The overall trend since 2006 is upwards. In fact the mean of the last 2 years is as high as it was 35 years ago.

Don’t listen to the doom and gloom of the government bought climate scientists. You can look at the data yourself. A good place to do this is over at Anthony Watts’s sea ice page here.

 

Austrian Daily Reports: “Huge Ice Growth Surprises Climate Scientists” … “Like One Not Seen In Decades”!

Antarctica_NASA PhotoThe Austrian online Kronen Zeitung here has an article about something most German-language media outlets have been too red-faced to report on: The sudden growth in polar sea ice.

The Kronen Zeitung opens with:

A huge growth in ice at the poles has surprised scientists and is casting questions. Is global warming taking a break? […] For the prophets of climate change the new figures pose questions: At the poles of Mother Earth, in complete contradiction to prognoses of a complete polar melt, there is an ice growth like one not seen in decades.”

Almost the entire mainstream media has been quiet about this development. So it is refreshing to see that some media are reporting the “good” news that the planet is not warming alarmingly.

Antarctic ice growth “problem for penguins”

The Kronen Zeitung reports that Antarctic sea ice is growing at an average annual rate of 16,500 square kilometers since 2007. The case is pretty much the same for Arctic sea ice, the online Austrian daily reports.

The Kronen Zeitung also writes that the rapidly growing sea ice surrounding Antarctica is a “huge problem” for penguins, who need open water.

“Climate science turned on its head”

Moreover, the Kronen Zeitung mentions the surprise of the National Snow and Ice data Centre (NSIDC) in Colorado concerning the growth in the Arctic:

Scientists t the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder (Colorado) in any case have to admit that instead of a global warming, a global cooling is taking place. […]

At the moment this development appears to have turned climate science on its head globally.”

The Kronen Zeitung then explains how the climate models have failed in that they predicted the very opposite to happen and that some scientists even desperately claimed that the measurements were wrong.

Max Planck scientists: “colder winters and cooler summers”

To explain what is happening, Kronen Zeitung turned to Professor Anastasios Tsonis of the University of Wisconsin. Tsonis says there are many factors at play. “Currents, winds, precipitation and foremost the upper and lower water layers.”

At the end of its article, Kronen Zeitung explains how the recent slowdown in overall solar activity may be playing a major role on the climate.

For years few sunspots could be observed. Colder winters and cooler summers could once again be the consequences, Max-Planck scientists say.”

Reported or not, the polar sea ice is there, and it cannot be ignored.

Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne.

Climate Change Dying As An Issue In German Media…Empty Seats Pack Hamburg “9th Extreme Weather Congress”!

This past week the 9th Extreme Weather Congress took place in Hamburg. Curiously this year there was very little coverage by the German media. Doing a Google search of the event turned up very few stories from the mainstream media.

9th ExtremWetterKongress 2014

Empty seats pack Day 3 of the Hamburg 9th Extreme Weather Conference, just minutes before starting. Source: here (11:12 mark).

The above photo is a snapshot from a Youtube video, just minutes before the start of Day 3 of the Congress.

Looks like the German media have grown fatigued by climate science in general and have sensed that something isn’t right with what the “experts” have been claiming. Record high sea ice, lack of hurricanes, low tornado activity, spectacularly failed climate models and bitter cold winters have a way of sobering them up.

Some German public television networks showed up on the first day, see here for example, but there too we see many empty seats – unusual given the opening first day hype.

Not a peep about Antarctic sea ice record

We begin to sense the media is feeling increasingly embarrassed about the climate issue overall. Any reminder of how they’ve been duped gets avoided altogether. Little wonder when Googling “rekord eis antarktis 2014“, we quickly find that the German mainstream media have totally ignored this year’s record high south polar sea ice event altogether. Too embarrassing! Besides, German viewers are totally bored by the climate issue.

Some small sites have reported the event, though. The online German weather site www.wetteronline.de writes that Arctic sea ice is “considerably greater than the record low year of 2012” and that the German Polarstern research vessel of the Alfred Wegener Institute “did not succeed in crossing the Northwest Passage of the American continent in the second half of August“.

Wetteronline.de also looked at the situation at the Antarctic, which this year smashed the all-time satellite era sea ice record. The site however, avoided the use of the word “record” and wrote:

…the sea ice around Antarctica reached 20 million square kilometers. Thus the 30-year maximum of last year was exceeded by about 0.4 million square kilometers.”

Of course this new satellite record high has baffled climate scientists, who are left stumped and only to speculate what is behind the unexpected trend. Wetteronline writes:

The reason for this, scientists suspect, among other factors, is a weakening sea current around Antarctica. Thus there is less mixing of the water masses which favours the growth of the sea ice.”

There’s no data to back this up, and so it just means the scientists don’t have a clue, are just shooting in the dark, and they should just say so.

Meanwhile, alarmist site Klimaretter presented its polar sea ice summary for 2014, but forgot to mention anything at all about the South Pole.

 

Antarctic Sea Ice On Turbo-Steroids…Mutates To A Behemoth…Sets Quantum All-Time Record High Extent!

In track and field a sprinter setting a new world record in the 100 or 200-meter dash by a few hundredths of a second is already considered a sensation.

Now imagine a sprinter breaking the 100 or 200-meter dash record by a whole half second, or a pole-vaulter beating the old record not by an inch or two, which would be spectacular, but by an entire foot! That would be unworldly and observers would call it a mutation leap forward.

Antarctica_Record

Antarctic sea ice takes a mutation leap. Source: Cryosphere

This is precisely what has just happened with sea ice growth at the South Pole around Antarctica.

Not only was last year’s all-time high sea ice record beaten this year, but smashed it by such a wide a margin that is meteorologically unworldly. If anyone is searching for a sign of a “tipping point”, this could be one. Unfortunately the tip seems to be in the opposite direction!

At least week’s Saturday Summary, Joe Bastardi even compared the South Pole’s new record to King Kong belting a 700-foot home run out of the ballpark. Not wanting to get too carried away, we have to keep in mind that we are looking here at the satellite record only, which goes back to 1979. Yet, it is still truly amazing by any standard.

Of course everyone’s question now is: Why has this happened? Unfortunately no one has an answer or even plausible hypotheses. It is mysterious. What is clear, however, is that once again alarmist global warming climatologists, who 10 years ago predicted a meltdown was imminent, are embarrassed and speechless. The same can be said about the media.

Never has the consensus been so unsettled.

 

NOAA Devolving To An Orwellian Political Farce…Veteran Meteorologist: “Fox Is Guarding The Henhouse”

The NOAA recently declared several months of this year as being the hottest on record, standing out in stark contrast to other datasets and observed reality.

The NOAA claims seem to be so odd that it has become the target of heavy criticism and ridicule (see here, here, here and here), especially with the backdrop of the cold winters the northern hemisphere has recently experienced and the growing global sea ice levels.

The latest condemnation comes from senior meteorologist Joe Bastardi at his latest Saturday Summary, where he called the seemingly rogue institute a “fox guarding the henhouse“. To back up his claim Bastardi presents charts contradicting the NOAA’s Orwellian hottest August claim. According to the veteran meteorologist other datasets such as UAH and NCEP (under +0.20°C) disagree with the NOAA’s outlier figure of +0.75°C.

Bastardi believes the NOAA is no longer a credible source: “I don’t believe it anymore.” To explain why he thinks the NOAA is fudging a heat record, Bastardi shows the following NCEP chart:

SatSumNCEP chart

He asks how can 0.165°C be the warmest ever when other months in the past, like May 1998, were far warmer?

Probably his most compelling piece of evidence pointing to NOAA deception is the next NCEP chart, which depicts a global cooling taking place over the last years, with the current year among the coolest:

SatSum_2

Bastardi, no longer able to hold back his laughter at the NOAA’s claim, asks how the NOAA could possibly say 2014 is the hottest when NCEP uses NOAA data? Looking at ocean cycles, Bastardi believes the planet will see cooler conditions like those in the 1970s by 2030.

NOAA claim “seems to be an outlier”

Dr. Roy Spencer here is less harsh with his assessment of the NOAA’s claim, writing that “the ‘record warm’ SST month of August, 2014 seems to be an outlier, with the SSTs being too warm (or the tropospheric temperatures too cool) compared to the usual behavior”.

For the general citizen observer, if August has set a record at anything, it’s probably the discrepancy magnitude between the NOAA claims and reality itself. With a “record hot planet” sea ice does not grow. Right now, especially at the South Pole, the sea ice is telling us a whole different story. Sea ice doesn’t lie.

Also read Steve Goddard here.world’s

Mainstream Journalism Remains Catatonic As Antarctica Sees Year-Long Series Of Record High Sea Ice Extents

Here’s proof that mainstream media journalism is either sloppy and just too lazy to check the data themselves, or is catatonically stuck in their now 18-year long illusion of global warming.

Recently a number of leading media outlets trumpeted (loudly) scary claims of “accelerating polar ice melt”. For example last May Germany’s leading online financial daily Handelsblatt cited a NASA study appearing in the Geophysical Research Letters and reported: “Polar ice melting much faster than assumed“, and warned of sea levels rising more than a meter.

antarctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2014_day_257_1981-2010_Sunshine

Antarctica sets satellite-era all time record high sea ice extent. Source: sunshinehours.wordpress.com

It’s obvious that neither journalists and nor NASA scientists have been looking at what is really happening. Antarctica has spent much of the current year smashing one daily maximum sea ice record after another. Today we see that Antarctic sea ice has totally smashed the all-time satellite-era record (see chart above). So far not a peep on that from the German mainstream media.

Instead it’s been all about meltdown. Citing the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) in Bremerhaven, German news weekly Stern wrote: “The ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are melting at record speed, according to satellite measurements.

Let’s wait and see if the reality-disconnected Stern will report on the record Antarctic sea ice in the days and weeks ahead. In the meantime we just have to think they and the AWI are really reporting on a different planet, one perhaps made of cheese.

Last month Spiegel here cited a study by Heinrich Miller of the AWI and reported that “both polar caps are melting more rapidly than originally thought“.

Obviously the record high ice extent at the South Pole hasn’t made an impression on Spiegel. To be fair, when the reader wades deeper into the Spiegel article, we find out that the rapid south polar melting they write ABOUT is actually restricted to the West Antarctic Ice Shelf, an area that is only 1% of Antarctica’s total surface area and not representative of the South Pole.

As the chart above indicates, we can expect to see more smashed all-time records in the days ahead. It will be interesting to see if the media and scientists remain in their 18-year long catatonic state of a melting and warming planet illusion.

 

2014: The Year Arctic Meltdown Stories Completely Vanished From Our Media!

Two years ago at about this time of year the media were overflowing at the brim with apocalyptic stories of high-speed Arctic meltdown. Everywhere the media used words like “dramatic”, catastrophic”, “accelerated”, “tipping point” and so on.

Except for the story of an overall long-term trend claimed by one paper from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) claiming a long-term accelerated ice melt at both poles, the media have been eerily silent on news about sea ice extent in the Arctic.

Right now the media silence is so deafening that you can hear a pin drop on the Arctic ice.

This year so far has indeed been a bad year for weather catastrophes. The pickings have gotten awfully meager for the alarmists and the media, who have had to content themselves with hyper-inflating anecdotal weather events to keep the climate scare living, albeit in a coma.

Tornadoes have been well below normal, cold temperatures have prevailed over many populated areas this summer, hurricanes have been scarce (not even a tropical storm on the globe today), Antarctica is at near record high sea ice levels, global temperatures stagnant almost two decades now…and now even the Arctic has moved into the skeptic column. Nothing is going the way the alarmists had projected years ago.

That’s why we’re getting phony weather forecasts for year 2050. There’s nothing else!

Arctic may have already reached low point – 2 weeks early

Some charts are showing that the Arctic sea ice may have already reached its low point in late August…more than two weeks early:

Arctic_2014 Sept 1

Source: www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/png

The chart above shows this year’s late summer extent could be higher than half a dozen other years on the recent record. So it’s no wonder that the climate catastrophe-cheerleaders in the media have been dead silent on the Arctic this year. Nowhere in the German media are there  catastrophic, dramatic Arctic meltdown stories announcing the tipping of the climate system. All gone this year.

For that we will have to wait until next year, perhaps. Or maybe the year after, or maybe when the missing heat comes out of hiding – a time that no climate model is able to tell us so far.

 

Senior Meteorologist Demolishes, Mocks Alfred Wegener Institute Claims Of “Unprecedented Antarctica Ice Loss”

UPDATE: Klaus-Eckart Puls’s rebuttal is also confirmed by MIT. When observations clash with runaway assumptions…
====================================

Puls, K.E.  EIKE

Veteran German meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls. Photo: EIKE

Antarctic Melt Alarm by the AWI …at -93°C!
By EIKE meteorologist Klaus-Eckart Puls
(Translated, edited by P Gosselin)

On August 10, 2010, a new record cold was measured in Antarctica [1]: -93.2°C. Thus the previous record of -89.2°C set at the Vostok Research Station on 21 July 1983 was smashed by 4°C. The annual mean temperature in Antarctica at ice sheet at elevations of 2000 to over 4000 metres range from -30 to -50°C, and the trend is downward [2]. Now the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) has announced in a press release [3]: “A record retreat in the ice sheets“. Can ice sheets melt at such record low temperatures? Has the AWI discovered some new physical law?

In the AWI release the following amazing thing can be read:

Researchers from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, have for the first time extensively mapped Greenland’s and Antarctica’s ice sheets with the help of the ESA satellite CryoSat-2 and have thus been able to prove that the ice sheets of both regions are momentarily declining at an unprecedented rate.”

These ice sheets mainly located in Greenland and Antarctica and are mostly around 3000 meters thick. On the Greenland ice sheet the annual mean temperatures are about -20°C, and -40°C in Antarctica. Antarctica is a huge polar continent, and Greenland is an island (peninsula) with a latitude range of 10°- 30° from the Pole and borders on the Arctic ocean. This is one explanation for the considerable temperature and climate differences. While Greenland has marginally lost ice during the summer over the last 20 years, the change in ice volume in Antarctica is very much in dispute [4] and hardly measureable with the needed accuracy (Fig. 1).

Figure 1  Trends in ice ice mass [5].

Only a small part of Antarctica has lost mass

Contrary to the claims made by the AWI, there are also satellite evaluations concluding that there has been a positive ice mass gain in Antarctica (Fig. 2):

Figure 2  Antarctic ice growth. [6]

Interesting in the release are the AWI claims about the “somewhat hidden” limitations for Antarctica:

The rate of loss for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has tripled for the same time period

and

The scientists observed the most rapid elevation changes…at the Pine-Island-Glacier in Western Antarctica.”

and

But: while the glaciers in Western Antarctica and on the Antarctic peninsula are shrinking, the ice sheet of Eastern Antarctica grew– however at such a minimal amount that the growth was unable to compensate for the loss on the other side of the continent.”

Firstly, here once again the Antarctic Peninsula and Western Antarctica – where the Pine Island Glacier is located – are being used as the poster child for the dramatic ice loss and for climate change. Unfortunately it has long been known that the ice calving and the melting there are related meteorological reasons: cyclic changes in the West-Wind-Drift (storms) and with associated sea currents [7]. The result: Almost the entire Antarctic continent has gotten colder over the past 30 years. The only exception is the Antarctic Peninsula.

West Antarctica and Antarctic Peninsula melt due to cycles

This is because the Antarctic Peninsula in located in the west wind zone of the southern hemisphere. This southern hemisphere wind belt is subject to stochastic cyclic atmospheric pressure variations, as is the case with all other global wind systems. This is analogous to the northern hemispheric North Atlantic Oscillation NAO). In the southern hemisphere it is known as the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO).

At the site “Wetter-Lexikon” (Weather Dictionary) [8] it is defined as:

The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is the fluctuation of the atmospheric pressure between the 40° south and 65° south latitudes. That means that this oscillation is defined by atmospheric pressure difference over the South Pole and the South Tropical regions. The strength of the AAO has an impact on the wind regime at the middle and upper latitudes of the southern hemisphere. The AAO influences the climate over a large part of the southern hemisphere, for example Antarctica, Australia, and the southern parts of South America.

The AAO index is computed from the atmospheric pressure differences. When the AAO is negative, then the cold high predominates over Antarctica. The polar east winds blow strongly around the South Pole. …. In the positive phase the west current shifts southwards so that more rain than normal falls in the southern part of South America and in Australia. Moreover mild air can reach down to the Antarctic coast.”

This means the Antarctic Peninsula can be affected!

This peninsula, including the South Shetland Island, is located in the west between 60°-75°S, and thus in the much feared cyclone zone of the Roaring Forties and Shrieking Sixties.

see caption

Figure 3: Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). [10]

Before about 1980 there was a dominance of meridional weather patterns, a time when zonal weather patterns predominated. That meant a strengthening of the westwind circulation and thus storm activity. At the same time milder air from the Pacific was led to the Antarctic Peninsula. Thus storms with mild air were led from the Pacific and resulted in ice meting processes. Moreover, higher waves mechanically broke up the ice. Here in recent times was the ice break at the Wilkins Ice Shelf at the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula [9]. The causes are meteorological and have nothing to do with a “climate catastrophe”.

When it comes to climate, the Antarctic Peninsula is only 1% of the Antarctic area.

So where is the accelerated sea level rise?

Despite all the uncertainties mentioned above, the AWI still comes to the following result:

When one calculates both together, the volume of both ice sheets is shrinking by 500 cubic kilometers per year.”

This of course would have to lead to an acceleration in sea level rise which one could observe. However, there has been no detected sea level rise acceleration! A very thorough overview of the latest peer-review publications [11] in fact reaches the opposite result:

Numerous evaluations of coastal tide gauges over 200 years as well as the gravity measurements of the GRACE satellite deliver again and again a sea level rise of about 1.6 mm/yr. … Here…the trends are in agreement: The sea level rise has been linear for at least the last 100 years; there is no acceleration in sea level rise. A signal indicating man-made CO2 (AGW) is nowhere to be seen. This stands in stark contradiction to the claims and especially the alarmist prognoses of the IPCC and some climate institutes.”

Two other facts on ice that were glossed over (avoided?) in the AWI press release:

1. In Antarctica there is a “100-year record” maximum sea ice extent [12]:

The sea ice around Antarctica has steadily increased since satellite measurements began in 1979 and in June, 2014, (peak of the Antarctic winter) reached a new record with respect to total area.”

2. At its current condition, the Arctic sea ice will reach its low late-summer peak in September, and will be well above the minima of the last years:

Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Figure 4 [13]

AWI’s own Antarctic station has measured a cooling trend

Finally, in a release [14], the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) also itself announced a 30-year cooling trend at its Neumayer-Station (70°S). According to the definition of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this is a climate trend. The AWI wrote:

The meteorological observatory at the Neumayer-Station III is an official climate observation station of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Ocean Research…has been measuring daily the air temperature in Antarctica for 30 years.”

The AWI published the result in a chart with a linear regression trend (Fig. 5):

       

Figure 5: Temperature cooling trend at the NEUMAYER Station [14].

However the formulation used by the AWI to describe that cooling trend is quite peculiar (deceptive?):

A result of the long-term research: At the Neumayer-Station it has not gotten warmer over the last three decades.”

Indeed not! It has in fact gotten colder there. Why did they use the blurred formulation “not warmer” when the scientific finding on this AWI dataset is clear? Also at the Neumayer-Station there is an Antarctic climate trend showing cooling.

Most of Antarctica is cooling – not warming as the AWI implies

There are even more peculiar AWI formulations:

This development however is a regional change and the measurements from the Neumayer-Station III do not in any way represent the global climate changes.”

Here the question that comes to mind is: What is that supposed to be about?

Who could ever get the idea that a regional or a local temperature trend would allow conclusions to be drawn for global trends? Or should nobody get the idea that global warming” is not even global?

There are also other peculiarities in the AWI release:

Only at the center of Antarctica has it not gotten warmer.”

The Neumayer-Station (with its cooling trend) is located at 70°S, i.e. far away from the “centerof Antarctica. There it has gotten colder. Moreover the measurements and facts presented here and provided in the footnotes below contradict what the AWI is claiming: “Only in the center of Antarctica has it not gotten warmer“.

With the excption of the Antarctic Peninsula (<1% of the Antarctic area) there is a cooling trend in Antarctica and it also includes the surrounding sea ice [15]:

Both the UAH and the RSS datasets [16] show that the temperature surrounding Antarctica has slipped a few tenths of a degree Celsius 0.1°C from 1979 to today. The temperature anomaly in both datasets has dropped below zero, i.e. below the long-term reference mean value.” 

Summary:

Measurements in Antarctica show a secular cooling trend. The exception is the Antarctic Peninsula and a part of West Antarctica (approx. 1% of the Antarctic area). In 2010 a new all-time record cold was measured: -93.2°C. The sea ice floating around Antarctica reached “100-year record” daily highs in 2014. With these observations, how anyone could conclude there has been a record ice sheet retreat” [3]  remains a secret of the AWI.

Sources:

[1]  www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft938128.html  10 Dec 2013

[2]  www.eike-klima-energie.eu/ trend-in-der-antarktis/ 24 Dec 2012

[3] www.awi._maps/  20 August 2014

[4]  http://www.kaltesonne.de/?p=6020 12 October 2012 and wattsupwiththat.com/exceed-losses/ September 10, 2012

[5]  (1) wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/06/antarctica/  6 July 2014

       (2) www.eike-klima-energie.eu/news-auf/  10 July 2014

[6]  http://www.kaltesonne.de/?p=6020  12 October 2012

[7] www.eike-klima-energie.eu/antarktis/ 24 Jan 2012

[8] Wetter-Lexikon; www.wetteronline.de/htm

[9] Eisberg voraus, weltenwetter.blogspot.com/us and: www.eike-klima-energie.eu/

[10]  http://www.jisao.washington.edu/aao/

[11]  (a) www.eike-klima-energie.eu//  8 July 2014

(b) http://www.kaltesonne.de/?p=19280  14 July 2014

(c) www.dagelijksestandaard.nl/gedacht  11 July 2014

(d) notrickszone.com/2014/07/09/ 9 July 2014

[12] www.eike-klima-energie.eu/ 2 July 2014

[13]  www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/htm

[14] Meteorologisches Observatorium wird Klimabeobachtungsstation – 30 Jahre Temperatur-Messungen an der Antarktis-Forschungsstation Neumayer, 12 January 2012: www.awi.de/de/aktuelles7

[15]  Die Temperatur im Bereich des antarktischen Meereisgürtels sinkt und die Meereis-Ausdehnung  wächst”, 11 November 2008; http://klimakatastrophe.wordpress.com/

[16] Anm.: UAH = University of Alabama in Huntsville; RSS = Remote Sensing Systems

 

Nils-Axel Mörner Calls Global Warming “A Large-Scale Hysteria”…Antarctic Sea Ice Expansion “Not Surprising”

Renowned Swedish sea level expert and climatologist Nils-Axel Mörner also responded by e-mail on the Antarctic sea ice expansion.

Moerner_The Mind RenewedHere’s his view:
=====================================

The Antarctic sea ice and sea surface temperature
Nils-Axel Mörner

Whilst there is a general hysteria of global warming, increasing temperature and rising sea level, new records from Antarctica indicate the opposite: a significant increase in the extent of sea ice over the last 30 years (in the order of 1 million square km) and a decrease in sea surface temperature south of Lat. 60°S (in the order of 0.4 °C).

Why is this?

First, the global warming hysteria is just what it is: a large-scale hysteria, which is primarily based on disinformation:

– The warming during the 20th century seems primarily driven by the Sun.
– There is negative evidence of CO2-driven process.
– The cooling over the last 17 years and 11 months is predominantly driven by the Sun.
– Sea level is by no means rising at an alarming rate.

Secondly, events taking place south of the Circum-Antarctic circulation belt are bound to be driven by other, often negatively correlated, effects than those recorded north of this belt:

– South of the Circum-Antarctic circulation belt ocean circulation and wind currents may generate climatic signals quite opposite to those in the north.
– An expansion of the sea ice over the last 30 years is not surprising.
– Nor is an increase in sea surface temperature of 0.4 °C since 2003 surprising.

But it all calls for an observationally based view of climate; in stead of a general hysteria.”

=========================================

Photo source: The Mind Renewed (video very much worth hearing).

 

 

NOAA Data Show Southern Oceans Getting Colder…Contributing To Rapid South Polar Sea Ice Expansion

North Pole and South Pole Ice
By Ed Caryl

Why do the north and south polar regions seem to be opposites? Why is ice increasing around Antarctica, and decreasing in the Arctic Ocean?

The answer lies in the other ways that these two regions are opposites. At the South Pole lies a continent. The ice cap there lies over land, is up to two miles thick over rugged terrain, and can move (flow) only very, very, slowly, largely due to gravity. Only the sea ice can move rapidly, and that movement is at the whim of the wind.

At the North Pole, there is an ocean. There is (except for Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago) only sea ice, again moving at the whim of the wind. The difference is the large chunk of continental ice at the South Pole is surrounded by ocean, instead of (at the North Pole) a large ocean surrounded by land.

In order to visualize conditions, here is a diagram of the earth’s winds.

Ed_1

Figure 1 is a diagram of the winds and atmospheric cells over the earth. Source: NASA.

In general, there is rising air over the tropics, leading to low pressure, thunderstorms, and warm dry air moving north in the stratosphere to fall as high pressure at the “Horse Latitudes” over the northern and southern hemisphere deserts. This air then flows towards the equator and is turned toward the west by carioles force from the earth’s rotation, resulting in the trade winds. Tropical thunderstorms act as heat pumps, converting rising, warm, moist air into cool, dry air, allowing the heat to radiate to space at the top of the stratosphere, and the moisture to fall as rain. If there is more heat, there are more thunderstorms to get rid of it, and more moving air.

The falling air at the Horse Latitudes exchanges energy with the Mid-latitude cells, resulting in the mid-latitude westerlies, then, in turn, energy is traded to the Polar cells. This results in low pressure at the 60° north and south latitudes and high pressure at the poles. At the surface in each set of cells, heat is picked up from the surface and moved to the top of the atmosphere. At the top of the atmosphere in each set of cells, more heat is radiated to space. In the south, the mid-latitude cells are mostly over cold water and don’t pick up much heat. In the north, the mid-latitudes cells are more over land and pick up more heat. In the south, the Polar cell is over the high icecap, nearly in the stratosphere, and the polar high has very cold, dense, dry, air. In the north, the Polar cell is over ocean, the surface is at sea level, and the winds are still exchanging heat with the surface.

The result is, that as heat in the tropics increases, even slightly, the upper levels in these cells radiate more heat to space, the highs increase where colder air is falling, and the lows get lower where air is rising. At the South Pole, this results in lower temperatures and stronger winds at the surface. At the North Pole, because the ice is floating on Arctic Ocean, the winds tend to break up the ice, and more open water moderates the temperature. The higher the winds, the more the ice is broken up. The smaller ice area in the summer of 2012 was because a cyclone did an exceptional job breaking up the ice.

At the Antarctic coast, the increased wind and lower temperatures create more ice. The very cold winds blowing down hill off the continent blow the ice away from shore, creating polynyas. As the air is very cold, the open water immediately freezes, and the resulting slush (brash ice) is in turn blown into the downwind sea ice. As long as the wind is blowing, this is a continuous process. These polynyas are visible from space.

Ed_2

Figure 2 is a satellite view of the Antarctic coast and the mid-winter sea ice. The dark spots at the coast are wind-caused polynyas, open water where new sea ice is formed.

The outer edge of the sea ice is not where new ice is formed; it’s the inner edge. The outer edge is where the ice is melting. The outer edge is expanding in area because that part of the Southern Ocean is getting colder.

Ed_3

Figure 3 is the Southern Ocean sea surface temperature for latitudes south of 60°. Source NOAA, here.

If you look at absolute temperature, it is easy to see what is going on.

Ed_4

Figure 4 is the absolute sea surface temperature for the Southern Ocean south of 60°. The graph is from NOAA.

In Figure 4, note that since 2007, the Southern Ocean south of 60° South is now seldom above freezing. Saltwater freezes below -1.8°C, but ice does not melt until the sea surface is above 0°C.

To summarize, the polar winds are blowing harder because the tropics and temperate zones are warming. The southern ice is expanding because the winds are blowing harder and the Southern Ocean is cooling, again, probably because the winds are blowing harder. It is all part of the earth’s thermoregulatory system.

 

A Single Meteorologist Explains What $165 Billion In Government-Funded Climate Science Couldn’t

Large scale oceanic oscillations responsible for most of the post 1980 “warming”
By Joe Bastardi

I think global warming is a misnomer.

There is a distortion of the temperature pattern on the globe, brought about by the natural cyclical warming events of the warm PDO and warm AMO together. I spoke about this at Heartland a couple of years ago – how the sea ice increase in the south and the decrease in the north were the hidden message that here is no “warming” just a distortion.

When the tropical Atlantic and Pacific warm in tandem, there is a natural warming that takes place, especially in the northern hemisphere. The Pacific warming after both oceans being cold is a much more dramatic event, as it is the biggest ocean. The fact we have more land in the northern hemisphere and that the Arctic is surrounded by land means the summer seasons over the land masses can be hotter. Also the oceans in the north near North America are warmer. One can see this on the example of the warm PDO (left):

Bastardi 1

Modes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, warm (left); cool (right. Source: jisao.washington.edu.

Notice the warmth near Alaska, yet the cool on the southern side of the globe near Antarctica. NOTICE THE TROPICS, THE NUMBER ONE SOURCE OF ENERGY TO DRIVE THE CLIMATE, are warm.  This adds more heat and moisture to the air, warming the atmosphere. It’s why we saw the rise in temperatures in the 1980s and 1990s.   In the cool version (right) the heat is where it had been cool earlier.  So the southern oceans around Antarctic are cool in a warm PDO, but warm in a cool PDO.

Look at the graphic of Antarctic ice below: it fits perfectly. At the start of the warm PDO around 1980, the ice was below normal, but the NATURAL cooling, compensating for warming in the tropics and north during the warm PDO, means the stage is set for the Antarctic ice increase:

Bastardi 2

Source: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu

Now look at a warm AMO example:

Bastardi 3

The Arctic’s exposure to the warm oceanic currents is much greater from the Atlantic side. This warm water moving toward the Arctic ocean obviously has a huge impact.

The deck is stacked to warm the northern hemisphere, jack up the global temps and shrink the Arctic ice. But at the start of the period, because the cold PDO and AMO together in the 1970s cooled the Arctic, the Arctic ice cap was way above normal.

Bastardi 4

Source: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu

BUT NOTICE THE SOUTHERN OCEANS WHEN THE ARCTIC WARMING IS GOING ON! THEY ARE COOLER!

Bingo, this is compensating cooling. So there is a cyclical distortion. The real key is measuring the water vapor, using temperatures is the wrong metric! Because without the amount of water vapor increasing, there can be no trapping. Co2 is 1/100th of the GHG and it’s likely that’s just about its influence on the entire shooting match of temps. It is estimated that the GHG blanket adds 33°C to the planet’s temperature. Co2 is boxed in at a range of 0.4 to 0.7 of that. It can do nothing because of all that is around it.

This explains perfectly the whole temperature pattern. Given the way we measure temperature, and the fact most of the warming has been in the Arctic in its cold season when there is little overall effect on the water vapor at such cold temperatures, it is highly likely that the subtle compensating cooling in the south over a much more moisture-laden atmosphere means there is no change in the true global temperature. What is happening now is that the atmosphere has adapted to the added warmth in the same way your shower room adapts to the turning on of a hot shower. So what happens when you turn off the shower (i.e. oceans flip their cycles)? It cools.

Bastardi 5

Notice the cooling in the Antarctic summer, limiting the ice melt season!

We are now in the period of “temperature leveling off”, where the atmosphere is readjusting from the previous increase in heat and moisture from the warmer cycles.

So here is the test we are in. I said in 2007 global temps would come down because of the shift in the PDO. Since 2005, its plain to see a slight downturn in a jagged fashion has started – just as I predicted 7 years ago:

Bastardi 6

The reason for the fewer, less intense El Ninos is because we are going back to the cycle of the colder PDO periods, plainly evident in the Multivariate Enso Index.

Bastardi 7

You can see the warm PDO and the major ENSO events that occurred when the globe warmed and the leveling off since then. Naturally, once the Atlantic flips, the global temps will return to where they were, as measured by satellite, at the start of the satellite era, which coincided with the START OF THE WARM PDO!

Its intuitive and natural…if you warm the tropical Pacific, you warm the temperature, but the compensating cooling is waiting in the longer term. That was my idea with the triple crown of climate back in 2007. The sun, the oceans, and stochastic events rule the climate.

So the test is on, and it doesn’t cost 165 billion dollars to justify an agenda (amount US has spent on climate change). It takes a working knowledge of where the climate has  gone in order to know where it is likely to go. Once the AMO flips to its cool phase, global temperatures will begin a descent much like the ascent we witnessed back in the 80s and 90s, which got us to our current plateau.

The Arctic is already showing, with the lack of ice melt this summer, what it will do once the AMO flips for good (in 5-10 years). It will recover. The global temperature will drop, but it will not be a drop representing a coming ice age or true cooling, just the cycle swinging back the other way. Meanwhile the Antarctic cap will retreat, eventually to levels seen in the 1970s and early 1980s.

If the southern ice cap does not shrink, then that will be a problem, but I have confidence it will.

When you are right, there are reasons. And when you are wrong there are often excuses, which is what you see from the people today who label the very people who said there is climate change (naturally) and made the correct forecast, as Deniers. The real danger to the globe is not global warming, it’s the global warming agenda. In a way, that is what the increase in the Antarctic ice cap shows you.

See Joe explain it here at the Saturday Summary.

 

Dramatic Antarctic Freeze Up…Iciest Decade Ever On Satellite Record…Every Decade Icier Than The Previous!

Nowhere have records been falling faster than in Antarctica. And what is shocking is that these records are all tied to cooling – and not warming.

Antarctica has been setting new maximum sea ice records almost daily, and never has Antarctic sea ice been so high for so long since satellite measurements began some 35 years ago. Sea ice anomaly has averaged over 1 million square kilometers for over one year.

Antarctica_decades

Figure 1: Antarctic sea ice anomaly. The mean of the past three decades has been rising for 30 years. Approximate mean bars added by author. Source: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu

Almost daily observers of southern hemispheric sea ice have been hearing of a new record for ice extent for the date. The overall trend is not something that can be regarded as a recent anomaliy attributed to natural weather-like variability. Rather it really has to do with multidecadal trends that are unrelated to manmade CO2 emissions.

Iciest Antarctic decade ever

Figure 1 above shows how each south polar decade is icier than the one before. There is only one reason for this: There is less and less heat down there to prevent ice from forming, which seems to squarely contradict claims of a warming that is global.

In total the global (Arctic and Antarctic combined) sea ice mean for the last one and half years has been above the long-term mean. Scientists are scrambling to find out what has gone wrong with their model calculations. It wasn’t supposed to be so.

Figure 1 also shows how Antarctic sea ice has remained steadfastly above normal for more than two and half years, something that has never happened since satellite measurements began. Moreover, Anthony Watts here writes: “We are now on day 1001 of positive anomaly based on the 1979-2008 baseline.” Scientists who have long claimed the globe is warming are baffled and a few are even so shocked that they are denying it altogether.

The year of daily sea ice records

2014 for Antarctica has been especially icy. Figure 2 below shows how 2014 daily sea ice extent, depicted by the bold red curve, has been setting new record daily highs for the last 5 months.

Antarctic sea ice 2014

Figure 2: Sea ice extent for 2014 depicted by red curve. Source: sunshinehours.

Not only has the sea ice area expanded at the South Pole but so has volume, this according to Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute last October. In a German language press release the Bremerhaven-based AWI concluded that “from various studies the total volume of the Antarctic sea ice has grown over the last years.”

Record low temperatures

Not only record sea ice extent and volume are telling us that Antractica is cooling dramatically, but so are the thermometers. For example last year the National Geographic reported here that NASA had recorded the coldest temperature ever on the Antarctica continent: -136°F. Also the University of Wisconsin, Madison reported that the South Pole Station saw a new record low temperature of -73.8°C (-100.8°F) on June 11, 2012, breaking the previous minimum temperature record of -73.3°C (-99.9°F) set in 1966.

Just weeks ago CFACT reported that the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) saw a record cold of -55.4°C.

In 2010 the Neumayer III station, operated by Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute, recorded the lowest temperature at their Antarctic location in their 29 years of operation. The mercury dropped to -50.2°C.

Antarctic freeze-up still being denied

Some global-warming-hypothesizing scientists are finding it difficult to cope with the reality of growing sea ice at the South Pole, some even insisting that it is shrinking, or that the expansion is a sign of warming and that the trend will reverse later in the future. But other experts (skeptics) think these scientists are being naive to think that a trace gas could control the entire global climate system. The climate system, they say, is far too complex and many other more potent factors are really at play. And so these experts aren’t at all surprised by what is going on.

Willie Soon, Professor of astrophysics and geosciences at the Solar and Stellar Physics (SSP) Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, says, “The South Pole is in sharp contradiction against the CO2 global warming scenarios which were supposed to melt most of the ice masses of the world.” So much so, Soon says, that “it is still being denied by some professional scientists“. Soon says that the freezing of the South Pole is “one fact that shows how much more we need to understand about how the Earth climate system can vary naturally and how different regions are inter-related to each other rather than insisting that all changes and variations must be caused by rising atmospheric CO2 alone.

Antarctic sea ice should retreat when PDO and AMO cool

Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi, who specializes in providing commercial clients with short-term and seasonal forecasts, also thinks other major global factors are at play – for one: ocean surface temperature oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic, i.e. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Decadal Oscillation (AMO): “The southern oceans around Antarctic are cool in a warm PDO, but warm in a cool PDO.”

Bastardi believes that once the PDO is well into the cool phase, the Antarctic sea ice will retreat. “If the southern ice cap does not shrink, then that will be a problem, but I have confidence it will.”

But Arctic will recover

Conversely Bastardi thinks that as the AMO enters its cool phase, in about 5 -10 years, the Arctic will be well on its way to recovery. Already we see signs of that starting today. Joe has written an entire essay on this, and it will be posted tomorrow.

In summary: While scientists who have invested careers in tying climate change to CO2 are scrambling to explain the lack of cooperation by the sea ice at the South Pole, other experts think the anomaly is all part of longer term natural cycles which man is powerless to stop.

 

“Urban Heat Island” Effect Appears To Be Far More Pronounced In Polar Regions Than You Might Think!

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Polar Islands Of Heat

By Ed Caryl

I would like to thank “John”, a commenter on my article on why the Antarctic sea ice is expanding, for inspiring this article. Other writers and researchers have noticed that temperature measurements in the polar regions are influenced by nearby heat sources, even the body heat of the person doing the measurement.

In 1907, William John Gordon wrote Round About The North Pole, describing the various expeditions that had taken place up until that time. One expedition described was that of Umberto Cagni’s expedition in 1900. (H/t Bill Strouss in a comment on WUWT here.)

Here is an excerpt from that book, the bottom of page 77 and the top of page 78.

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Figure 1 is an excerpt from William John Gordon’s Round About The North Pole, written in 1907. Note the increasing impact on temperature measurements with the approach of the human body with decreasing temperature.

Every object that is warmer than the surroundings emits infrared that heats cooler objects in the vicinity. The more objects there are that are warm, and the closer they are, the greater the heating. This applies also to thermometers. Are weather stations in the polar regions subject to temperature errors due to nearby heated structures? This notion has been studied for only a few locations. The village of Barrow on the Arctic Ocean coast in Alaska has been studied. The heat island there can reach as much as five or six degrees C in winter when the temperature is between -30°C and -40°C and the wind is calm.

Studies like this require the installation of recording thermometers inside the study area and outside in nearby rural areas. Long-term studies are done using existing weather stations that are close by. One long term study was done using the records from Fairbanks, Alaska, and nearby Eielson Air Force Base. This study found a heat island exceeding 1°C in winter.

Comparison of 2 adjacent Antarctic weather stations

In the polar regions there are few weather station pairs suitable for heat island studies. In Antarctica, there is only one pair that can be used, Scott Base and McMurdo Station on Ross Island in the Ross Sea. These two stations are particularly useful, as they are very close together, less than 1.5 miles (2.3 kilometers) apart as the Skua flies (no crows in Antarctica), at the same altitude and latitude, separated by only a low ridge.

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Figure 2 is from Wikimapia. McMurdo (left) and Scott Base (right) are at the southern tip of Ross Island. The red line is the distance between the temperature measuring instruments at the two bases.

If there is a heat island influence on temperature at McMurdo, there will be the following indicators:

  • McMurdo will be warmer than Scott Base in all seasons.
  • The annual temperature trend will be greater for McMurdo than for Scott Base.

Winter temperature differences will be greater than summer differences.

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Figure 3 is a plot of the annual temperatures and trends for McMurdo and Scott Base.

At the beginning, after Scott Base was built in 1957, the temperature difference was about 2.5°C, with McMurdo the warmer. The trend for McMurdo is nearly twice that of Scott Base. In 2009, the last year where we have data from both stations, the difference was more than 3°C.

Both bases were built to support research in the International Geophysical Year, June 1957 to December 1958. McMurdo was always the larger base, built first to support logistics for the other Antarctic research stations in the area, as well as support for the South Pole station, Amundsen-Scott Station. Scott Base was built by New Zealand in 1957.

McMurdo was sized to support over a thousand people in the Austral Summer season and 150 to 200 people in the winter. Scott Base was sized to support 70 to 80 people in the summer and 10 to 15 people in the winter, 10% of the size of McMurdo.

McMurdo handles the logistics, fuel, sea-borne and airborne freight, personnel transport, and most of the electrical power for the two stations, though Scott Base does have its own generators in case the common electrical grid is disrupted. There is also a three-turbine wind farm with nearly 1 Megawatt peak output.

90% of the fuel used at both bases is AN8 aviation kerosene jet/diesel fuel. Most of the turbojet and prop jet aircraft, and all the diesel engines use AN8, including the icebreakers and the diesel generators, at both bases and the South Pole. AN8 is a special Arctic formulation with antifreeze added to reduce the gel point to -70°F (-57°C).

These stations use a LOT of fuel for heating and electrical power. McMurdo uses 19,000 liters per average day, about 12% more in winter and 30% less in summer. Scott Base uses 1300 liters per day in winter and 900 liters/day in summer. The fuel energy content for AN8 is about 10,000 watt-hours/liter. For both stations, this works out to about 55 watt-hours/square meter in winter and 37 watt-hours/square meter in summer.

But the area of warmer McMurdo is about 400 by 400 meters, or 160,000 square meters, and Scott Base is much smaller at about 50 by 200 meters, or 10,000 square meters, though much more irregular. Here is what the bases look like in winter (now).

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Figure 4 is the McMurdo webcam image from Arrival Heights about 2 AM local time on August 13, 2014. Moonlight is just making the unlighted terrain faintly visible. Observation Hill is left of center beyond the base.

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Figure 5 is of the “hitching rail” area (outlets for engine heaters) at the entrance of Scott Base, lighted by their one streetlight. This webcam view was taken at the same time as Figure 4.

Below in Figure 6 are the temperature differences between the warmer McMurdo and the cooler Scott Base by season. December through February is summer, March through May and June through August is winter, and September through November is “WinFly”. WinFly is also winter, as it stands for Winter Fly-in, the season when the early crews arrive to begin preparations for the summer work season.

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Figure 6 is the temperature difference between McMurdo and Scott Base by quarters. McMurdo is the warmer by 3.5°C in June, July, and August, 3°C in the rest of winter, and around 2°C in summer.

For all seasons, the trend is warming. The WinFly season is warming the most.

McMurdo is warmer in winter by 3 to 3.5°C because of the high-energy use to heat and power the base, and because that heat is over a larger area than Scott Base by a factor of 16. There is also another reason: the siting of the measuring instruments. This is Building 165, the location of “MacWeather”, the weather monitoring and forecasting office, as well as the communications and operations center for the McMurdo base.

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Figures 6a and 6b are Building 165 at McMurdo. Figure 6b is a close-up on the weather instruments. Note the stovepipe very close by.

Building 165 is near the center of the base, next door to the Crary Science Center.

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Figure 7 is a labeled satellite view from Wikimapia of the center of McMurdo Station. The building outlined in red is building 165, the location of MacWeather. The weather instruments are on the roof at the right-hand corner of the building, closest to Crary Lab. In Figure 6a, you can see the corner of the Phase 2 (middle) section of the lab building.

In contrast to this very “urban” setting, the weather station and the weather instruments at Scott Base are much better sited.

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Figure 8: Scott Base from the air. Photo Credit: Joe Harrigan/Antarctic Photo Library.

Figure 8 above is an overview of Scott Base. Most of the heat sources, the powerhouse, garage, dormitories, mess building, and the “ablutions” building, are on the right. The building on the left end of the complex is Hatherton Lab. Outside of this building, slightly up-slope and almost 100 meters away, is a Stevenson Screen – see detail below.

Figures 9 and 10 document the position of the Stevenson Screen at Scott Base:

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Figure 9: The path to the Stevenson Screen (upper left corner). In order to safely reach it, and return to Hatherton Lab in winter white-out conditions, there is a guide rope strung alongside the path. Photo Credit: Joe Harrigan/Antarctic Photo Library.

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Figure 10: Nita Smith is the lady in the photo. Three wind turbines are visible in the background on the ridge above the base. The picture was taken in early December 2011. Photo credit: Rebecca Priestly here.

The last monthly record in the GISS station data is June 2009. Ms. Smith would be deeply disappointed that her efforts were in vain. GISS is taking only the McMurdo data now and ignoring Scott Base. Why are we not surprised?

There is definitely a heat island at McMurdo Station. As we discussed at the top of this article:

    • McMurdo is warmer than Scott Base in all seasons by 2°C in summer to nearly 4°C in winter.
    • The annual temperature trend is greater for McMurdo than for Scott Base by 86%.
    • Winter temperature differences are greater than summer differences by 1 to 1.5°C.

 

So What’s The Real Reason South Polar Sea Ice Is Expanding? It’s The Cooling, Stupid!

By Ed Caryl

During the last three years, since 2011, the ice around Antarctica has been growing, in most seasons, more than during any similar periods of the satellite era where we have that data.

At first, the climate catastrophists ignored this phenomenon. When that became embarrassingly inconvenient, they began to blame it on instrument problems.

They detected a step-change in the data in 1991, but couldn’t decide which side of the step was the correct data, and the fault only excused about 5% of the increase. The step change supposedly occurred in 1991.Caryl_1 Caryl_1Caryl_1

Figure 1 is from the paper as described above. The step occurs at the end of 1991.

Caryl_2 Figure 2 is the satellite (RSS) lower troposphere temperature data for the southern hemisphere south of 20° South.

Note the step in July 1991. The step in temperature occurs in July 1991. What happened in the summer of 1991? Mount Pinatubo blew up on the 15th of June. How long does it take for volcanic equatorial cooling to reach 70° South? About six months. Can you see the step in the ice data? I can’t. It doesn’t show in the annualized ice date (Figure 4) either

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Figure 3: Hemisphere sea ice anomaly data in the satellite era. Source

If a real step was detected in the ice anomaly data, it coincides with a cooling step in the southern hemisphere temperature, and is real, not an instrumental artifact. To make it easier to see the trends, the next figure is annualized data, sea ice anomaly and temperature anomaly from satellite (RSS) for the latitudes of coastal Antarctic, 70°south to 60°south, with the trends. Temperature has been inverted to match the ice.

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Figure 4: Plot of the ice anomaly (annualized) and the temperature anomaly (also annualized) for the latitudes of coastal Antarctica.

It is apparent in Figure 4 that most of the changes in the ice anomaly plot match changes in temperature. Keep in mind that the temperature plot is inverted, cold is upward, warm downward, to match the behavior of the ice. The recent increase in ice is because it has gotten colder.

Though the temperature trend in the last 35 years is only slightly cooler, the ice has increased dramatically. Here are trend maps of the temperature changes in the polar regions in the last ten years from GISS. Compare the temperature changes along the coast of Antarctica to the ice anomaly map.

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Figure 5 is a map of the global temperature change over the last ten full years from GISS.

Note that the Global temperature trend from 2003 to 2013 in Figure 5 above, (top right corner) matches the 70° to 60° South decade trend in Figure 4.

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Figure 6 (right) is the current ice anomaly map for Antarctica. I turned it 90° counter clockwise to match the Antarctic as seen in Figure 5.

There is more ice where it has been colder. There are many gaps in the temperature data around Antarctica, especially ocean data. But even on the continent, station data is quite sparse and subject to UHI (Urban Heat Island) problems for the larger stations. That large orange spot in Antarctica in Figure 5 is due to McMurdo Station, the largest and most populous base on the continent.

The next largest heat source is the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station.

The ice around Antarctica is not increasing due to global warming. It is increasing due to global COOLING!

 

GISS Data Contradict Mark Serreze’s Claim

Antarctic Sea Ice is Growing – Because of Global Warming?
By Ed Caryl

Short answer: No. Antarctic sea ice has been growing, especially in the last three years. This has been largely ignored by the AGW crowd because it opposes their narrative. They needed badly to come up with an excuse. A recent article in the Daily Caller, quoted below, was recently discussed in this blog. See here.

A quote from the article: “The primary reason for this is the nature of the circulation of the Southern Ocean —water heated in high southern latitudes is carried equatorward [sic], to be replaced by colder waters upwelling from below, which inhibits ice loss,” Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, told author Harold Ambler in an email. Read more: http://dailycaller.

It is a bit difficult for me to swallow this in light of the temperature trend in the southern ocean:

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Figure 1 is the annual temperature trend in the Southern Ocean according to GISS.

It is also opposite the well understood thermohaline current flows in both the Arctic and Antarctic, where warm currents flow from the equator to the poles, is cooled, surface evaporation increases salinity, and the cold, dense, more saline water sinks, to rise again closer to the equator. The southern ocean is getting colder, not warmer, opposite to the trend stated above.

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Figure 2 is the Southern Hemisphere sea ice anomaly inverted to match the temperature curve.

Note how closely these curves match, even though one is annual average data and the other is daily ice anomaly. Just how is it that this high southern latitude supposed heated water is getting colder, not warmer. I’m sorry, but my credulity doesn’t stretch this far.