DWD Weather Service Confirms No Verifiable Rise In German Tornado Activity Or Link To Global Warming!

Tornadoes are normally associated with the famous Tornado Alley of the US Midwest. But they also occur from time to time in Germany.

Nowadays the drama-seeking media are quick to report on any tornado event that gets recorded, and so often there’s the mistaken perception that their frequency is rising (of course due to man-made weather brewing). Moreover the media have no qualms about their readers and viewers making that erroneous leap in thought.

Earlier this month Germany was hit by some relatively severe tornado activity. In Augsburg earlier this week 150 homes were damaged by a twister. The media naturally put the topic on center-media stage.

Flagship daily Süddeutsche Zeitung [South German News], SZ, even conducted an interview with the DWD German National Weather Service on the subject of tornadoes and what might be their cause. Over the recent years the DWD has become a rather avid activist and promoter of the man-made global warming theory. But in the SZ interview, the DWD was refreshingly fully honest, and resisted blaming German tornado activity on climate change.

First the SZ asked DWD meteorologist Lars Kirchhübel about how tornadoes are formed and why they are so dangerous. Then about halfway through the interview the topic switches to the impacts of climate change on tornadoes: The SZ asks, “Are they becoming more frequent in Germany – and are they a consequence of climate change?”

The SZ gives us the DWD’s reply:

Tornadoes are not forming more frequently than earlier, we are simply made more aware of them says DWD expert Kirchhübel. Between 20 and 60 tornadoes are know each year in Germany. It has been only over the last few years that those involved have recorded them with their mobile devices, and so thus enhance the people’s perception.”

And on whether there is a discernible trend linkíng tornado activity to global warming, Kirchhübel tells the SZ that the dataset is too short and that there has been no discernible trend so far. He adds:

Also a clear relationship with climate change is not verifiable.”

About a week ago NoTricksZone posted another report on German tornado activity here, and it found that the trend is actually downward for the past 15 years, and not “no trend”:

DWD_tornado frequency

Number of confirmed tornadoes in Germany since 2000. Trend has been significantly downward over the past 10 years. Source: DWD.

German DWD Weather Service Data Shows Tornado Activity Trending Downwards, Becoming Less Frequent

The Deutsche Wetterdienst (German Weather Service), DWD, released a bulletin providing background information on a cold front that passed through the country last Tuesday and unleashed some severe storm activity.

In the East German town of Bützow a tornado even touched down and caused severe damage and dozens of injuries.

To give an idea of how intense the front was, the following chart shows the temperature drop in Hamburg brought on by the front’s passage:

DWD Hamburg temp

 Temperature in Hamburg on May 5th from 4 to 6:30 p.m. Source: DWD

Although tornadoes in Germany are nowhere near as common as they are in the USA, it is not unusual for them to occur from time to time. But when they do occur, the media and some dubious climate and weather “experts” are quick to hint that they are extreme weather events associated with man-made climate change.

So are tornadoes really becoming more frequent in Germany?

Although the DWD German Weather Service has not been tracking tornadoes that long, the data so far do not show any increase in activity over the past 15 years.

DWD_tornado frequency

Number of confirmed tornadoes in Germany since 2000. Trend has been significantly downward over the past 10 years. Source: DWD.

In fact the trend appears to be more downward. Of course a period of 15 years is too short to draw sound conclusions, and the DWD adds that data has uncertainty. The bulletin adds:

In Germany the occurrences of tornadoes are often times not recorded, unless they cause direct or occur near a weather station. Over the years the wide use of mobile devices and i-phones have allowed the widespread recording and documentation of such events and so an estimation of their frequency can be done.”

Die Zeit Interview With Hans von Storch: “No Intensification In Storm Activity”…All “Within Range Of Natural Variability”

The online center-left Die Zeit features an interview with Prof Hans von Storch, Professor at the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and Director of the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz Research Centre in Geesthacht, Germany.

HvS

Hans von Storch photo credit: European People’s Party, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

The focus was on mainly storm activity and its possible link to man-made climate change.

In the end the very green-oriented Die Zeit did not get the sound bites it likely had hoped to get.

All within natural varibility

In the interview, in response to the question of storm frequency and intensity, von Storch, a renowned climate scientist with 40 years of experience, says:

We see no intensification in storm activity at our latitudes, and our climate models also indicate that we cannot expect it.

Also since 1950 they have not become systematically more frequent or stronger. Therefore we believe that Christian [October 2013 North Sea storm] moved within the range of normal variability.”

Von Storch also tells Die Zeit that storms do not occur with a rather regular periodicity, saying that “sometimes there are decades when they rumble a lot, and some decades when they don’t.”

The north German professor also tells Die Zeit it is very difficult to make comparisons between the storms of today and those of decades ago because the data recorded back then are nowhere near as complete:

If you simply compared the pressure values with those from a few decades ago, then you would reach the conclusion: Yes, the storms have become more powerful. But that would be a faulty conclusion.”

The reason for this, von Storch explains, is that the measurement of the storms core pressure was very inadequate and readings were often taken by ships that were not located near core of the storm. Today satellites provide very reliable data for comparisons.

Climate models do not indicate future intensification

On the future of storms and increased intensity, von Storch tells Die Zeit no one can rule it out, of course, but thinks it’s “implausible“. “Our climate models do not lead us to expect it.”

Von Storch also cautions against putting too much emphasis on model results:

Ultimately, however, observations and not climate models decide. We always have to expect that we will know the truth only afterwards. We can’t predict everything with certainty.”

“Pause” has led to more attention on natural fluctuations

Next Die Zeit looks at the warming pause, which it writes it has been confirmed “by some scientists” and asks if the “pause” has ended. Von Storch replies:

At least one finds no strong evidence showing that the long-term warming pause in the climate system has ended. The debate over this postulated ‘pause’ in the end has had a good side: Natural fluctuations have gotten more attention. We understand the climate a little bit better.”

In summary, von Storch sees 1) no data supporting a trend of stronger, more frequent North Sea storms, 2) models do not show an increasing trend, 3) recent storms have been within the range of natural variability, and 4) the pause has been substantial enough that it has shifted more focus onto natural factors.

The AGW theory of catastrophic warming has taken a significant blow.

 

World’s Second Largest Reinsurer Swiss Re Sees Huge Drop In Losses From Natural/Manmade Catastrophes In 2014!

The online Swiss Handelszeitung (Trade News) reports on the world’s second largest reinsurer Swiss Re, and on the losses from natural catastrophes for 2014. Let’s recall that natural catastrophes are supposedly becoming more and more frequent due to the alleged man-made climate worsening from manmade CO2 emissions.

Hat-tip: Kurt

However the Handelszeitung writes that preliminary estimates show that the Swiss reinsurer saw “markedly less damage claims than in previous years” and far less loss of lives. Fortunately this is lots of good news, but the catastrophe-obsessed media are refusing to report it.

Deaths plunge almost 60%!

According to preliminary Swiss Re estimates, total economic losses from natural catastrophes and man-made disasters were USD 113 billion in 2014, down from USD 135 billion in 2013. Out of the total economic losses, insurers covered USD 34 billion in 2014, down 24% from USD 45 billion in 2013.

The 2014 loss amount is way below the annual average of $188 billion dollars for the past 10 years, 1.e. over 41% less.

The Swiss Re press release writes that disaster events have claimed around 11,000 lives this year – down almost a whopping 60% from the 27,000 fatalities in 2013.

“No major hurricane”

The Zurich, Switzerland based reinsurer attributes the reduced damage in part to “the mild hurricane season“. It adds: “No major hurricane made landfall in the US, the ninth year running that this has happened.”

“Very low temperatures and heavy snow”

Moreover, the major losses resulted from cold events. The Swiss Re writes that “2014 started with extreme winter conditions in the US and Japan and, as the year drew to a close, the Northeast US was once again gripped by very low temperatures and heavy snow. The storms in the US at the beginning of 2014 alone caused insured losses of USD 1.7 billion. This is above the average full-year winter storm loss number of USD 1.1 billion of the previous 10 years. In mid-May, a spate of strong storms with large hail stones hit many parts of the US over a five-day period, resulting in insured losses of USD 2.9 billion, the highest of the year.”

Another myth bites the dust.

 

60-Hour Blizzard Paralyzes Northern China, Russian Orient: 90 cm Snow, 105 km/hr Winds, Minus 20°C!

The main media often avoid reporting catastrophes involving bitter cold winter conditions, as it may cause the public to doubt global warming. So it’s little wonder that they have opted not to report on an ongoing massive blizzard pounding the Russian Orient, northern parts of China and extending to northern Japan.

However, the smaller media outlets are picking up where the mainstream media is slacking off.

The French language www.catnet.net reports here on “a very powerful snowstorm” that has hit the Russian Orient and Northern China and pumped very cold Arctic air into the region. It writes:

The storm in particular hit the Khabarovsk and dell’Amnur regions with heavy snowfalls and icy winds in the sector of North-North East that have reached speeds of 120-130 km/hr over the Okhotsk Sea.”

catnet.net writes of widespread power outages and winds of 105 km/hr and 72 cm of snow in the region of Khabarovsk. The region of d’ell’Amnur also saw 50 cm of snow with winds of over 105 km/hr. The catnet.net reports that the city of Komsomolsk has been “completely paralyzed“.

The English-language news.xinhuanet.com writes of an “ongoing blizzard” that continues “pelting the region with snow” and temperatures falling to -17°C.

China’s CCTV News presents a video of the conditions here and reports, “Strong winds with heavy snow reduced visibility in Fuyuan to less than 50 meters, affecting local traffic.”

CCTV News here also reports of a 60-hour blizzard pounding China’s Heilongjiang province and continuing even today: “Outdoor temperatures reached as low as minus 20 degree Celsius and the accumulated snow is up to 90 cm deep, leaving residents struggling to open doors.

 

Natural Catastrophes Drop To 10-Year Low! Weather-Related Losses Mostly Due To “Cold Events”

German skeptic site “Die kalte Sonne” brings up an article at the online Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ) that reports natural catastrophes worldwide have reached a 10-year low.

Anthony Watts also wrote on this earlier at WUWT.

The Süddeutsche Zeitung (South German Newspaper) writes:

Number of natural catastrophes in 2013 drops to a ten-year low
Over the past year the number of natural catastrophes dropped to the lowest level in ten years. This is reported by the “World Catastrophe Report 2014”, which the die International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement published in Geneva. According to the report 337 natural catastrophes were counted over the past year, almost half as many as the peak seen in 2005. The number of deaths was 22,452 and thus well below the mean of the decade of 97,954.

The results fly in the face of alarmist claims of man-made global warming causing more violent, extreme weather events.

In fact there has not been any warming in 18 years, and weather-related damage is increasingly due to cold events, as the world’s leading reinsurer Munich Re reported last July:

Economic losses plummet 56%

The statistics for natural catastrophes for the first half of 2014 have been marked by pleasingly low levels of global claims. Overall economic losses of US$ 42bn and insured losses of US$ 17bn to the end of June were considerably below the average for the past ten years (US$ 95bn and US$ 25bn respectively). “

And the reason for most of the damage:

Record North American winter, blizzards cause losses

The record winter in North America also caused significant losses, with extremely cold temperatures and heavy snowfalls over a longer period in many parts of the USA and Canada. The losses from various blizzards totalled around US$ 3.4bn. The most costly snowstorm was in the first week of January: losses for this storm alone totalled US$ 2.5bn, of which US$ 1.7bn was insured. In many instances the harsh winter also had a heavy impact on business, as companies were forced to stop production. At the end of January, a blizzard brought the Atlanta metropolitan area almost to a standstill, even though only a few centimetres of snow had fallen. Snow and ice made the highways impassable, as there was a lack of snow-clearing equipment for a city unused to such conditions.”

So we can add another one to the list of climate “science” now exposed as being purely bogus.

Bastardi Rips GISS Claims Of “Warmest September Ever” And NWS Forecast Of A “Blowtorch Winter”

It’s bad enough when the media indulge in sensationalism, but it is totally unprofessional when weather and climate institutes do the same.

In his latest Saturday Summary, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell Analytics goes after, rips US weather and climate agencies for poor, and often hyped forecasts.

At the 2:54 mark Joe says:

And that’s one of the big problems we have today. People that are here today are classifying things that happened before and changing everything that was recorded before.”

As an example Bastardi cites GISS in their dubious claim that September 2014 was the warmest on record, when clearly it was not. Bastardi shows that at least 7 or 8 other satellite-era years were warmer, such as 2003.

SatSum_18_10_14 1

Satellite measurement shows that September 2014 was a mere 0.195°C above normal. Image from Weatherbell.

On the GISS claim, Joe says:

All I’m saying is that there are several so-called reliable measurements of global temperatures and all you see these people doing that are making, screaming and yelling of the hottest temperature ever, is using one of the least reliable datasets. Their very own NCEP reanalysis shows something very different. So, again, there’s a lot of controversy in this. And what happens is that they scream this stuff out, and then they walk it back.”

Next Joe shows a chart (5:00) depicting global temperature over the last 10 years, which clearly shows it to be in decline.

The veteran meteorologist also calls out the over-hyped El Nino predictions made by the National Weather Service (NWS) last April. Six months later we see that the predictions were totally false. The AGW crowd, Joe says, bought it all up without question and that the predictions made in April were based on “busted models”.

NWS “blowtorches” the US winter

The incompetence of the US weather agencies doesn’t stop there. Other examples Joe presents include botched predictions of cyclone tracks, and the NWS dubious winter forecast calling for a “blowtorch winter”.

NWS blowtorch winter

US National Weather Service winter forecast blowtorches the US. Source: Weatherbell.

Though seasonal forecasts are tricky, Joe lays out in detail his reasoning why he thinks the other models are more reliable and why the NWS model “has troubles”.

Right now, Joe sees a cold winter for the eastern half of the USA, and so does the European model.

 

World’s Largest Re-Insurer “Munich Re” $ponsors 2014 “Extreme Weather Congress” In Hamburg!

Today parts of the German mainstream media have begun reporting on the 9th Extreme Weather Conference in Hamburg, which began today and is slated to end on Friday. The direct link to the program-pdf here. Of course the focus of the Congress will be on the claimed “increasing frequency of extreme weather events”.

In all 3000 experts are attending, along with 2500 Hamburg school pupils.

What especially raises eye brows is the fact that the event is sponsored by the Munich Re reinsurer, the biggest in the world. The Munich-Germany-based reinsurer of course stands to profit handsomely from the spreading of extreme weather fear; it makes it it a lot easier to jack up premiums (see “Spiegel Online doubts the catastrophe scenarios of the Munich Re“).

Also very murky is the identity of the organizer of the Congress: Institute for Weather and Climate Communication” (IWK). At their Die kalte Sonne website here, German skeptics Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt looked into who is behind the mysterious IWK? They write:

The result is sobering: Apparently the institute really does not have its own Internet platform. So we took a look at the legal page of wetterspiegel.de. Here indeed the “Institute for Weather and Climate Communication GmbH” is given. Listed as the managing directors are Frank Böttcher and Alexander Hübener. Frank Böttcher? Indeed we’ve written about him as well: “Extreme weather “expert” Frank Böttcher does not not know about the latest literature: Latest research results on global cyclone activity are damaging is climate-alarmist business“. Without climate fear and extreme weather alarm, the number of visitors for the commercialized Extreme Weather Congress would certainly be limited. Thus it’s little wonder that Böttcher, because of promotional reasons, is fervently preaching climatic doomsday to attract visitors into his auditorium.”

Lüning and Vahrenholt also look at a list of persons slated to appear: “Paul Becker of the German Weather Service, a climate alarmist to the bone. Peter Höppe of the Munich Re reinsurer will attend the introductory press conference, thus getting his sponsoring money’s worth.”

No skeptic was invited to the present at the Extreme Weather Congress. For the second year in a row Lüning and Vahrenholt were denied the opportunity to present there.

Vahrenholt and Lüning also ask themselves whether Mojib Latif will be able to muster the courage to disclose some inconvenient things that up to now he only has quietly admitted in the scientific literature. See “Mojib Latif: the proof of an anthropogenic climate contribution is difficult because the natural ocean cycles dominated” and “Mojib Latif in the presentation in USA: CO2 sensitivity was set too high by the IPCC“.

There is a bit of hope: “honest broker” and alarmism-critic Hans von Storch has also been invited, and so maybe he will infuse a little sobriety into the Hamburg climate panic-fest, see “Climate scientist Hans von Storch: Climate models possibly do not take solar activity sufficiently into account” and “Judith Curry prognosticates warming pause until the 2030s: Hans von Storch in such a case demands a vote of no-confidence against CO2“.

Overall, however, in view of the sponsorship by the world’s biggest player in the re-insurance industry, the murkiness surrounding the event’s organizers, and their exclusion of scientists with other views and data, the event has everything to do with serving corporate special interests rather than those of science.

 

Leading German Private Commercial Meteorologist: “No Statistical Basis” Showing Winters Are Getting Warmer

Jung_TwitterPrivate commercial meteorologist are always under pressure to produce reasonably accurate forecasts for their clients and to stick to the best available science. If their models and work consistently produce false results, then it is not long before they find themselves looking for a new line of work. There’s no room for politics in their trade.

Photo: meteorologist Dominik Jung, Twitter

No trend to anything unusual

One of Germany’s leading private commercial meteorologists, Dominik Jung of wetternet.de, gives an interview at the online Hessische/Niedersächsische Allgemeine Zeitung (HNA). Jung says storms and variable weather are nothing new in Germany, and that there is no trend pointing to any unusual changes.

So far this summer Germany has seen a fair amount of variable weather, with several periods of a few hot days followed by cooler rainy days. HNA asked Jung if this was unusual and if spells of sunny, hot summerlike weather had not been longer in the past. The HNA gives us Jung’s answer: “No. Weeks-long warm periods with long-lasting heat are not typical for our region.”

Summers getting wetter, contradicting climate models

On whether German summers are becoming drier, as many climate scientists once projected: “In the past years six were wetter than the long-term average. The summer of 2013 was a bit too dry.”

Winters are not getting warmer

The HNA also brings up the often mentioned claim that German winters are becoming warmer, and that snow and frost will soon become “a thing of the past”. It writes: Also the suspicion that winters are getting warmer cannot be statistically asserted. Over the past seven years many of the winters were very cold with long periods of snow and ice.”

Increased storm activity in Germany?

The HNA also asked Jung about storm frequency and severity. Here as well the high-profile meteorologist sees no statistical basis. The HNA writes : “According to Jung, there is no detectable increase. The UN IPCC report also comes up with the same result. … statistically there hasn’t been any more such storms than there was 100 years ago.”

On rising insurance claims due to storm damage, Jung says that the rising trend has much more to do with the higher number of people insuring their assets, and is not a measure of storm activity.

Jung also says that spring on average is arriving about one or two weeks earlier than it did 3o years ago. Here Jung does not mention that 30 years ago some importanct ocean cycles were in their cold phases. Climate is changing, but that change is due in most part to natural cycles, which even alarmist scientists have been conceding lately every time they claim “the warming is being masked by natural variations.”

Climate change is natural

When asked if the fluctuiations are a tell-tale sign of climate change, Jung dumps cold water on that claim as well. The HNA reports: “For meteorologist Jung there is currently no acute effects of a climate change. Climate has been changing since the earth was created, and it will continue to do so in the decades and centuries ahead.”

 

Munich Re Report: Top 2014 Weather Catastrophe Losses Due To Cold-Related Events, “Record Harsh Winter”!

We keep hearing from alarmists that storms are becoming more violent and more frequent, and thus storm damage and deaths are rising – all because of man-made global WARMING. Unless we stop driving SUV’s, mankind in the future will be wiped out by global warming-precipitated bad weather. Hat-tip: DirkH.

However, the world’s largest re-insurer (and a very active proponent of global warming catastrophe), Munich Re, has just released its latest “catastrophe report“, which looks at the first half of 2014. In it there are some interesting admissions.

Economic losses plummet 56%

“The statistics for natural catastrophes for the first half of 2014 have been marked by pleasingly low levels of global claims. Overall economic losses of US$ 42bn and insured losses of US$ 17bn to the end of June were considerably below the average for the past ten years (US$ 95bn and US$ 25bn respectively).

That translates to an almost 56% drop in economic losses from natural catastrophes (not necessarily weather-related, e.g. earthquakes, volcanoes).

Deaths down eye-popping 95%!

“Thankfully, the number of deaths caused by natural catastrophes was also comparatively low. During the first half of the year, 2700 people died as a result of natural catastrophes, which was much lower than is normal during the first six months of a year (10-year average: 53,000). There were around 490 loss-relevant natural catastrophes.”

Only 2700 people died, normal is 53,000! That’s a drop of 95%. Despite the good news, the Munich Re insists there’s been “no change in the overall risk situation“, and so premiums unfortunately will have to stay high because global warming catastrophes are lurking.

“Snowstorms”, harsh “record winter” cause biggest losses!

Ironically the most damage was not caused by something we typically associate with global warming, but rather with global cooling!

“The effect of loss susceptibility on claims was clearly demonstrated by two snowstorms in Japan. These storms in February, which hit Tokyo and central Japan in particular, brought overall losses of around US$ 5bn and insured losses of more than US$ 2.5bn, and were the most costly natural catastrophe worldwide in the first half of the year. Snowfalls of up to a metre are very unusual in the affected provinces in Japan, though they would cause very few problems in other countries. There were numerous accidents, and the roofs of many halls and greenhouses collapsed under the weight of the snow.

Record North American winter, blizzards cause losses

“The record winter in North America also caused significant losses, with extremely cold temperatures and heavy snowfalls over a longer period in many parts of the USA and Canada. The losses from various blizzards totalled around US$ 3.4bn. The most costly snowstorm was in the first week of January: losses for this storm alone totalled US$ 2.5bn, of which US$ 1.7bn was insured. In many instances the harsh winter also had a heavy impact on business, as companies were forced to stop production. At the end of January, a blizzard brought the Atlanta metropolitan area almost to a standstill, even though only a few centimetres of snow had fallen. Snow and ice made the highways impassable, as there was a lack of snow-clearing equipment for a city unused to such conditions.”

Munich Re contorts to blame it on “climate change”

Of course for a company whose business plan is based on promoting global warming catastrophe, the unexpected harsh winter losses may lead to clients asking questions. The Munich Re then undergoes contortions to link the cold to global warming:

“According to Peter Höppe, Head of Munich Re’s Geo Risks Research Department, there is a link between the weather extremes in the northern hemisphere this winter. “These extremes – with heavy winter conditions in North America and Asia, and the extraordinarily mild winter across large parts of Europe – were due to significant and lengthy meanders in the jet stream”, said Höppe. “And scientists are still having intense debates about whether such sustained changes to patterns in the jet stream – and therefore also the frequency of such extreme and persistent weather conditions – might increase in the future due to climate change.”

When one scrutinizes the Munich report, little damage arises from warm events. The warm weather cited is restricted to Europe, which represents a tiny fraction of the world’s surface.

USA tornadoes down 25%

“The tornado season in the USA, which peaks from May to July, has been below average so far. The US weather agency NOAA recorded 721 tornadoes until end of June, in comparison to an average of 1,026 in the years 2005–2013.”

But hey! “Videos filmed on 17 June showed an extremely rare twin tornado in the State of Nebraska.” Wow! Aint that something! Must be global warming.

Munich Re sees no “super El Niño” this fall

Over the rest of the year, weather events will probably see increasing impact from ENSO, a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. “With the contrary effects of El Niño and La Niña, ENSO can influence weather patterns in many parts of the world”, said Höppe. “It currently looks as though a moderate El Niño will develop by the autumn, with warm water from the South Pacific moving from west to east, thus shifting wind systems and precipitation across the Pacific basin.”

La Niña prognosis for next year…hurricanes!

“Hurricane activity in the northern Atlantic normally decreases during El Niño phases. The number of typhoons in the northwest Pacific usually increases, but they make landfall more rarely. Tornado activity increases in the USA. “This gives a different distribution of losses across regions. Globally, our loss database NatCatSERVICE records no significant differences in overall losses in moderate El Niño years when compared to neutral years, whereas losses are significantly lower in years with a strong El Niño”, said Höppe. The stronger the El Niño, the more likely it is that there will be a La Niña in the following year, when hurricane activity tends to increase.”

 

WeatherBell “Saturday Summary” Debunks 6 Climate Alarmism Falsehoods In Less Than 10 Minutes!

If you don’t have the truth, then some folks rely on lies and hope others will be fooled and stay so. Such is the case with global warming climate science. Almost every measure of global warming has stopped cooperating with the alarmists over the last 10 years. Now they have to make things up.

At Weatherbell Analytics Joe Bastardi has another outstanding Saturday Summary, which every week I look forward to like I looked forward to the Saturday morning cartoons when I was 8 years old.

This week I was fascinated by the number of falsehoods coming from the global warming industry that Joe debunked, and how he did it so quickly. The veteran meteorologist exposes all of them for what they are – in less than 10 minutes!

The string of debunking begins at about the 4-minute mark with the so-called claimed “record drought” that is supposedly gripping Texas and America’s heartland. Joe calls that claim “a lie”. With charts he clearly shows that the recent drought was not even close to being the worst, and that the drought of the 1950s was considerably more intense.

Weatherbell_2014_06_21Secondly at the 7:55 mark, he debunks the claims of the upcoming “super El Niño” that the “Church of Super El Niño”, who want to see high temperatures, were ballyhooing earlier this year.

Chart right: Weatherbell

Again Joe presents charts that show the current development resembles nothing you’d expect from a super El Niño and that the current situation looks more similar to 2002/03 or 2009/10. All models have long since downgraded their forecasts. The missing heat remains missing.

Thirdly at the 10:00 mark Joe shows how the leading weather services are diametrically opposed when it comes to their forecasts using the Madden Julian Oscillation. While the European model shows the MJO will be in Phase 6, meaning US temps will be cool in July, the US models show that it will be in Phase 1, which means it will be warm over the US in July.

Fourthly, at the 10:55 mark, Joe shows that although tornado activity in the US has risen over the last weeks, the overall activity is still well below normal. How is that “extreme”?

Fifthly at the 11:15 mark, Joe tells the real story about wildfires, whose seemingly increased intensity is claimed to be yet another ominous of climate disaster. Here too we see that wildfire activity is being wildly exaggerated and is well below normal. Currently this year there have been 24,124 wild fires, normal is 31,758. As far as acreage is concerned, things are even less worse look worse for the warmist extremers. Normal acres burned is 1,777,552 acres. So far it is only 826,471 acres. Joe emphasizes, “We’re way the heck below the average.”

Weatherbell_2014_06_21_2Finally at the 12:00 mark, Joe debunks falsehood Number 6 by presenting global sea ice for 2014 so far, and here we see that it is not even close to the ice-free conditions some were predicting some years ago.

Chart right: Weatherbell

In the Arctic sea ice is now headed toward normal levels. Around Antarctic sea ice remains stubbornly close to record levels.

Joe adds, “It may break the all-time record, let alone the daily record“.

 

Richard Lindzen In Mannheim, Germany Portrays IPCC Climate Models As Fudged…Extreme Weather Claims “Pure Propaganda”

The European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) has posted a video of Richard Lindzen’s presentation delivered at the 7th International Climate and Energy Conference in Mannheim, Germany in April.

Overall Lindzen slams the IPCC models, claiming they act like they have everything all figured out, when in reality they do not. On ocean cycles and their important interaction with the atmosphere, Lindzen says at the 23.00 min. mark: “No models gets those things in a reasonable manner.”

The IPCC also appears to be only guessing with aerosols, and tends to fudge around with the numbers involving aerosols. On natural variability, at the 37:40 mark, Lindzen mentions a PNAS 2013 paper by Tung and Zhou who find that at least half of the warming is likely due to natural factors.

Lindzen ridicules the UN climate view its models, the ones near the center of the range and the bad outlier ones: “In the democratic processes of the UN, all models are equal.”

On extreme weather, at the end of his presentation, Lindzen calls the science surrounding it”one of the crazier things”.

Extreme weather is pure propaganda. The IPCC itself acknowledges no relation.”

At the end he reminds the audience that many things in the IPCC actually argue against the hysteria. This naturally leads us to assume these things have gotten filtered out of the Summary for Policymakers and press releases, and thus the public has gotten the wrong picture.

Also posted at EIKE is the presentation by Donna Laframboise.

 

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi: “Not Going To Have To Worry About The Arctic Ice”…Arctic Scare Melting Away!

UPDATED: Joe has contacted me and I’ve added a correction concerning the AMO-hurricane connection, which I misinterpreted from the video. See his comment below after my post.
=====================================

Veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi presents lots of interesting background information on hurricanes in his newest Saturday Summary, reminding viewers that they were much worse back in the middle of the 20th century than they are today. But now we are (again) in a setup where we may see some harsh hurricanes as we did in the 1950s – see 11:50 mark.

Arctic melt grinds to a halt

Also interesting is the part at the end (12:30) about the upcoming Arctic ice melt season. Surprise! The latest NCEP forecast for the summer melt continues showing a positive anomaly, flying in the face of predictions of a disappearing Arctic ice.

Bastardi 20140531

Image cropped from: Weatherbell Saturday Summary

Joe believes the Arctic will be returning to normal by 2030, maybe even sooner, thanks to the seemingly approaching cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) where we see the start of the transitional phase beginning.

Warmists’s arguments melting away

With Antarctic sea ice near record high levels and Arctic sea ice starting its rebound, the Arctic death spiral” argument so often used by the warmists is on the verge of a complete meltdown.

With the polar ice cap argument disappearing and the observed lack of warming for almost two decades, it will be interesting to watch what tactics the global warming crowd will be resorting to in the future. Expect to see them push lots of weather horror stories…future scenarios generated by hocus-pocus computer models cooked up from “renowned” institutes. when reality doesn’t cooperate, then fantasy is all that’s left.

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Joe has sent me a comment providing more information about the AMO, etc:

The latter stages of the warm AMO, when cooling starts in the North Atlantic, is when the warmest water is near the coast. This is not the cool AMO, rather it’s the transitional phase that is starting now. At the end of the warm AMO, the warmest water is near the east coast, just as we saw in the 1950s. By the 1960s the expanding pool of colder water, and the end of the last Arctic ice melt of the 1950s, were taking over. That then proceeded to have ice at high levels through the early 1990s. But as soon as the AMO flipped, the Arctic ice decreased.

The linkage is this: The jamming of the warmest water up near the east coast in the waning stages of the warm AMO (example the 1950s) heightens the east coast threat, and is a sign the cold AMO is around the corner, and with it the end of the scam.

It should be obvious now…one season of cooling and the summer ice melt will be weakest since the end of the cold AMO. The cold AMO is not the reason for increased east coast hurricanes. It’s the end game of the warm AMO that is telegraphing the coming cold. Look at the classic signature of the warm AMO 1997-2013 and you notice the water has been slightly cooler near the east coast, opposite the cold AMO signature of 1981-1996. The end game, when water starts to cool in the north Atlantic (and ice increases as we are seeing) has the warmest water jammed near the east coast. Please read http://patriotpost.us/opinion/26136

The set up now is the sign it’s about to end and with it the reversal. CO2 has NOTHING TO DO WITH IT, which is what they will claim in spite of science and history showing that is not the case.

 

Models Wrong Again…Sea Ice Break-Up Caused In Large Part By Storm-Generated Oceanic Wave And Wind Dynamics!

Spiegel science journalist Axel Bojanowski has a fascinating piece on what likely causes most of the sea ice to break up. The Spiegel introduction:

Sea ice is disappearing in the Arctic, around the Antarctic it is growing – today’s conventional climate models are unable to explain this contradiction. One effect has just been measured by sensors: wave motion is able to crack ice, hundreds of kilometers away.”

Sea-ice_Chukchi_SeaThe Spiegel report explains how oceanic mechanical waves induced by large storms offshore propagate underneath sea ice and act to break it apart even hundreds of miles far into the ice sheet. Bojanowski cites a north Pacific storm near Alaska which created huge waves in 2005. “Six days later the surges ripped apart the B15A iceberg 13,500 km to the south.”

Photo: Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

The new hypothesis is based on a recent study by Alison Kohout of the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in Nature.

Scientists placed sensors on a section of the Antarctic ice sheet to measure ocean wave induced oscillations. When storms hit offshore, the ice sheet began to resonate and cracks developed due to the cyclic loading. Spiegel writes that cracks even hundreds of kilometers into the ice sheet resulted.

The scientists examined weather data between 1997 and 2009. They clearly observed that sea ice broke up as result of storms hundreds of kilometers away. Sea ice over water that bordered regions of relatively calm waters that saw low storm activity remained relatively intact.

Many global warming scientists insist ice break-up is likely caused mostly by warming. But the results of the study refute the claim and show that climate models have gotten it all wrong again. Bojanoawski writes on storm-induced ocean waves and ice break-up:

In the calculations such destruction is hardly taken into account by the models, which simulate sea ice. Up to now they have failed to depict the observed changes: …”

But the Alfred Wegener Institute is skeptical of the study’s result, claiming that it neglected to take wind into account.

It’s a good point, but here we see that even the warmist Alfred Wegener Institute indirectly admits that sea ice break-up is in large part driven by mechanical ocean wave dynamics and wind forces.

Bojanowski writes that the destructive effects of ocean waves are documented in the Arctic as well, citing how in 2012 “a huge storm ripped apart an area of sea ice three times the size of Germany in just 10 days“. He adds that the wave effect exascerbated the break-up as deeper warm water was agitated and brought up to the surface and melted the sea ice like “an ice cube in a tea cup.”

Whatever the warmists may argue, one thing is sure:  Sea ice break-up is far more complex and there is a growing body of evidence showing that it is due in large part to mechanical ocean dynamics and wind conditions.

See excellent photos.

 

Rash Of Weather Extremes In 1936 …Before 15 Billion “Hiroshima Bombs Worth Of Heat” Were Added To Our Climate!

We keep hearing from alarmists that if we sacrifice by giving up carbon based fuels and bring atmospheric CO2 concentrations below 350 ppm, then we will get nice weather with far fewer extremes – like in the 1930s.

Reader Jimbo however shows that this is all bogus. Now he has compiled a list of extreme weather events occurring in 1936…before 15 billion “Hiroshima bombs worth of heat” were added to the climate system by humans – and at a time when CO2 were well below the “safe level” of 350 ppm.

Recall awhile back we posted Jimbo’s list of extreme weather events for the year 1935 here.

Now he has his list of…

STRANGE / ODD / WILD / WEIRD WEATHER – 1936
DROUGHT, FIRE and FLOOD AMERICA’S PHENOMENAL NUMBER OF DISASTERS
FREAK WEATHER. EUROPEAN EASTER. AIRLINERS’ EXPERIENCES.
FREAKISH WEATHER FURTHER FLOODS New York
FREAKISH WEATHER. IN VICTORIA. Torrential Rain. MELBOURNE
World’s Weirdest Weather America’s Blizzard Of Mud
WILD WEATHER In New Zealand TERRIFIC GALES LASH EUROPE AND BRITAIN Ships Wrecked. PHONE SERVICES DISLOCATED
HAILSTONES KILL 19 […AS LARGE AS COCONUTS…]
WILD WEATHER MORE WILD WEATHER Tornado’s Wreckage East and West
EVEREST UNCONQUERED ATTEMPT ABANDONED UNPRECEDENTED BAD WEATHER VIOLENT WIND. Damage in Victoria [..Red rain fell…a waterspout was seen..]

———————
HEATWAVES – 1936
DEATHS IN CANADA SIX HUNDRED IN ONTARIO […worst six days’ heat wave in the history…]
Relief in Sight After 5,000 Perish….America Heat Wave…..
A HEAT WAVE HAS QUEENSLAND IN GRIP. SEVERE CONDITIONS
Antarctic Expedition. Polar Heat Wave.
Black Swan Dies In Sudden Heat Wave, But Polar Bears Survive
OVER 90DEG. FOR FOUR DAYS Temperature Record For October [Brisbane]
SYDNEY RECORD HEAT

———————
COLD WAVES – 1936
UNITED STATES IN GRIP OF COLD WAVE Over 200 Deaths Blizzards, Snowstorms and Frost Widespread Suffering
INTENSE COLD BREAKS ALL RECORDS IN AMERICA WORST IN MEMORY
FROZEN CANADA 50 Degrees Below Zero Worst Cold in Memory
SPANIARDS DIE OF COLD MILITARY ACTIVITIES AFFECTED WAR IN SNOW

———————
DROUGHTS – 1936
TERRIFIC WHEAT LOSSES DROUGHT RAGES IN AMERICA
WORST DROUGHT IN HISTORY Millions Hit In America
DROUGHT RAVAGES IN CANADA
CALAMITOUS DROUGHT. Special Alberta Legislation
WORST DROUGHT IN HISTORY WEST AUSTRALIA SUFFERING
Cattle Dying in Hundreds Transvaal’s Most Terrible Drought in Living Memory
SOVIET GRAIN HARVEST SMALLER THAN AVERAGE DROUGHT IN MAY
GRAIN POSITION IN ARGENTINA Drought Affects Many Crops

———————
FLOODS – 1936
UNITED STATES FLOODS WORST ON RECORD QUARTER OF U.S.A. AFFECTED A THOUSAND LIVES LOST
DISASTROUS FLOODS LONDON PHILIPPINE FLOOD THOUSANDS DEAD OR MISSING
RECORD FLOODS. SERVICES ISOLATED Water 50 Miles Wide at Normanton. BRISBANE
RECORD FLOODS EASTERN VICTORIA INUNDATED WIDESPREAD DAMAGE
11 LIVES LOST. DISASTROUS FLOODS. £1,000,000 Damage in N.Z.
300 Dead ANATOLIAN FLOODS 50,000 PEOPLE HOMELESS
FLOODS IN FRANCE Serious Damage Reported Towns Under Water
HUGE DAM BURSTS IN JAPAN. Six Villages Swept Away […owing to heavy rain…]
FLOODS IN RUMANIA. Coffins Swept Through Streets. BUCHAREST

———————
TORNADOES – 1936
THIRD WORST DISASTER TORNADO IN U.S.A. OVER 500 DEAD
TORNADO’S HAVOC New Zealand Town BUILDINGS WRECKED
A QUEENSLAND TORNADO. Township Ravaged
HEAVY TOLL OF DEATHS THE PHILIPPINES TORNADO

———————
STORMS – HURRICANES / CYCLONES / TYPHOONS – 1936
5000 PEOPLE DEAD A Second Hurricane RUIN IN CENTRAL AMERICA
TYPHOON SWEEPS JAPANESE ISLAND. 741 Killed or Missing
MANY DEAD Cyclone in New Zealand SHIPS BUFFETED Extensive Damage to Property
PHILIPPINES TYPHOON 400 REPORTED DEAD. Fear of a…
Over 300 Killed in Cyclone [S. Korea]
CYCLONE STORM IN QUEENSLAND WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TYPHOON AT HONG KONG BUILDINGS WRECKED MORE THAN 100 DEAD MOUNTAINOUS SEAS. Hurricane on German Coast
FIJI HURRICANE. WORST IN HISTORY. 240 Deaths [..worst hurricane and floods ever..]
HURRICANE AFTER FLOODS IN ENGLAND 13 Dead; Widespread Damage
DISASTROUS HURRICANE. 300 Dead; 7,000 Homeless. Birmingham, Alabama
HURRICANE IN CARIBBEAN SEA. A HUNDRED THOUSAND HOMELESS
GALES SWEEP EUROPE 30 Killed: Long Trail Of Wreckage

———————
CLIMATE CHANGE?
IS OUR CLIMATE CHANGING? Climatic Change Brought About by Dam. [W. USA]
THE EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE. DROUQHTS: THEIR CAUSE, EFFECT AND MITIGATION
IS THE EARTH DRYING UP? World’s Deserts On The Earth

Wild And Lethal Weather Extremes Gripped The Planet…80 Years Ago When Atmospheric CO2 Was Well Under 350 ppm!

Wild and crazy weather extremes really are nothing new. I got the following compilation from reader Jimbo:
================================

Hi Pierre,
Please consider putting up the following as a post. It concerns 1935 bad weather events. It’s intended to put things into perspective for younger folks.

Below is a small selection of newspaper headlines from 1935 reporting on ‘bad weather’ events and some consequences. Some reports overlap into 1934.

STRANGE / ODD / WILD / WEIRD WEATHER – 1935
Britain Has Winter Heat Wave [Jan.]
FREAK WEATHER Winter in England FLOWERS BLOOM [Jan.]
COLDEST WEATHER IN MEMORY. MOTOR CARS SNOWED UP. [Britain] [Jan.]
SNOW IN MAY. Unusual Weather in England. [May]
FREAK WEATHER Frosts in England HEAVY LOSSES [June] _______
HEAT WAVE Extremes in India RECORD OF 124 DEGREES
PHENOMENAL WEATHER UNPRECEDENTED HEAT WAVE EXTRAORDINARY RAINFALL, Calcutta
INDIA UNDER FROST Record Low Temperatures Many Deaths from Pneumonia
COLD SPELL ICE in Torrid India HEAVY DEATH ROLL CALCUTTA
CATTLE KILLED BY HAILSTONES. CALCUTTA _______ WILD WEATHER Violent Duststorms Sydney
Abnormal Weather HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODS. FRUIT CROPS AFFECTED. [Australia]
Bitterly Cold Weather RECORD FOR SYDNEY…[lowest for 71 years in April.]
LIGHTNING, HAIL, BUSH FIRES WILD WEATHER REPORTED HAILSTONES PIERCE TANKS [Australia]

DROUGHT HAVOC IN INTERIOR Rabbits and Drift Ravaging Land CLIMATE CHANGE [Australia]
COOL—HOT—WET—COOL Melbourne’s Chameleon Afternoon _______
DUST STORMS IN U.S.A. Whole Country Affected FREAK WEATHER EXPERIENCED…
SEVEN DEAD IN HAILSTORM. HONOLULU
Freak Weather:…….Niagara Freezes:
AMERICA’S WINTER 200 Deaths From Cold Frost Reaches Florida _______
SNOW IN SWELTERING SAHARA ALGIERS 400 LIVES LOST. Torrential. Rain: Gales in Brazil. BUILDINGS COLLAPSE.
UNPRECEDENTED WIND AND RAIN STORMS. STATE OF PUBLIC CALAMITY. Bahia (Brazil)
Rained Jellyfish. MELBOURNE
ls the Weather Abnormal?

HEATWAVES – 1935
HEATWAVE IN FRANCE HUNDREDS OF CASES OF SUNSTROKE
HEAT WAVE IN ITALY DEATHS FROM SUNSTROKE [“…100 deaths…”]
Most Of Continent, In Heat Wave [Europe]
122 IN THE SHADE. Madras Suffers. Deaths From Heat Stroke. [India]
WHEAT ESTIMATE IN U.S. REDUCED Effect Of Rust, Heat, And Drought
WEATHER EXTREMES. COLD FOLLOWS HEAT WAVE. Hailstorm in Perth Suburbs
EXTREME HEAT THROUGHOUT STATE 113 DEGREES AT WHITE CLIFFS. SYDNEY
HEAT WAVE. High Temperatures in New Zealand
EXTREMES IN WEATHER FOR SOUTH AFRICANS Heat Wave For Match Against Yorkshire
HEAT WAVE IN SYDNEY MANY PERSONS COLLAPSE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS Anxiety in Europe Heat Wave in England
ENGLAND’S HEATWAVE. DROUGHT CONDITIONS. NO WATER SHORTAGE

DROUGHTS – 1935
DROUGHT IN AMERICA DESTITUTE FARMERS MIGRATION TO ALASKA
DROUGHT’S TOLL. 5,000,000 SHEEP DEAD. LOSSES IN QUEENSLAND
DROUGHT IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA Critical Position
DROUGHT IN CANADA Grasshoppers Eat Rhubarb FARMERS SAD PLIGHT
Cargoes Firm Serious Drought in Argentina
FLOODS AND DROUGHT. HOW CHINA SUFFERS. Children Sold for Bowl of Rice
SOLDIERS’ BODIES GRIM HARVEST ON OLD BATTLEFIELDS Drought Dried up Swamps [France & Belgium]
DROUGHT IN SOUTH OF ENGLAND
IN BAD WAY New Zealand Dairymen SEVERE DROUGHT
FOOD SHORTAGE Drought in Ceylon GOVERNMENT RELIEF
Suffering Among Italian Troops [“Drought, malaria, flies, mosquitoes, and blistering heat…East Africa”]

FLOODS – 1935
50,000 Dead in Chinese Floods
DISASTROUS U.S.A. FLOODS Hundred Dead in Five States HEAVY DAMAGES
WIDESPREAD STORMS FLOODS IN EUROPE AND ASIA MINOR
FLOODS, STORMS AND TORNADOES 250 Casualties Reported Denver, Colorado
HEAVY FLOODS IN N.Z.
DISASTER IN JAPAN 145 People Die In Floods GREAT DAMAGE
QUEENSLAND FLOODS. Bridges Still Under Water
FLOODS IN CANADA HUNDREDS OF FARMS INUNDATED SEVENTEEN DEATHS REPORTED
RHONE FLOODS Worst for 95 Years FIFTEEN LIVES LOST RIVER ELEVEN MILES WIDE
GALE AND RAIN FLOODS IN GREAT BRITAIN
FIJI FLOODS Severe Damage
72 PERSONS DEAD Landslides and Floods SOUTHERN ITALY AND SICILY
TEN FLOODS IN EIGHTEEN MONTHS [New Zealand]
2000 DEAD Cyclone and Floods in Honduras
FLOODS IN FRANCE Worst for 90 Years FIFTEEN PERSONS DROWNED
2000 DEAD OR MISSING HAITI HURRICANE AND FLOODS
SEVERE FLOODS Dead and Damage IN NEW YORK STATE
Fatal Floods In Turkey, Spain and France
450 BODIES NOW RECOVERED Disastrous Mexican Floods

TORNADOES – 1935
PLANE CRASHES IN BELGIAN CONGO Seven Killed After Tornado
FURIOUS, TORNADO DAMAGE AT COOGEE SYDNEY
FLOODS IN HAITI HEAVY LOSS OF LIFE 1,000 Believed Drowned Torrential Rain Follows Tornado
TRAIL OF RUIN TORNADO AND FIRES DESTRUCTION IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TORNADOES Sweep American States. 34 PERSONS KILLED
FLORIDA TORNADO. Death Roll Growing. Trail of Desolation

STORMS – CYCLONES / TYPHOONS – 1935
DISASTROUS CYCLONE [NW Australia]
SEVERE CYCLONE Houses Uprooted in India
CYCLONE IN FLORIDA Heavy Loss Of Life TOWN OF TAVERNIER RAZED
BAHAMAS CYCLONE. Extensive Damage. 14 Deaths Reported
HUNDREDS DEAD IN TYPHOON 75,000 HOMES LOST Destruction in Japan
OVER 400 LOST IN FLORIDA HURRICANE MIAMI
HURRICANE DAMAGE. THIRTY REPORTED DEAD. Cuba and Jamaica Swept
1000 BELIEVED DROWNED IN HAITI
HURRICANE RAGING. DAMAGE IN SCOTLAND. SHIPS AGROUND. TRAIN DERAILED
COOK ISLANDS. Extensive Hurricane Damage

CLIMATE CHANGE? – 1935
OUR CHANGING CLIMATE Scientists Talk of Post…..[ Australia’s climate is bad,..]
CLIMATIC ECCENTRICITIES [… more or less off what is regarded as the normal…]
PLAN TO MELT THE NORTH POLE. AND IMPROVE THE WORLD’S CLIMATE. DAM 200 MILES LONG. ——–

See also 1954: A Bad Year of “Climate Change” – Natural Disasters Pummel Large Swaths of Globe, Again Global Weirding Late 19th & early 20th Centuries Extreme Climate Change: The 1933-1938 Bad weather events.

Bad Weather of the past from Steven Goddard.

Climate Superstition: Professor Robert Devoy Defies IPCC’s Findings, Attributes Severe Weather To Humans!

The Irish Examiner here reports that Robert Devoy, professor of physical geography at UCC, says the greater wind speeds and flooding in Ireland of the last few days are “what we would expect from a warming climate caused by the impact of humans”.

However, he cites no substantial data to support that. In fact global data on accumulated cyclone energy, hurricanes, droughts, tornadoes, etc. all show no trend, or in many cases even a decline. Yet Devoy claims:

We have had some exceptional events in recent years and these exceptional events are becoming more common.”

How Devoy can claim this is a mystery. Even the alarmist IPCC in its last fifth assessment report stated that there is no link between severe weather and humans.

Prof Devoy also says that “weather patterns had gone outside the natural pattern of weather events and this is a continuation of that” and that “the nature of these storms is changing.”

The nature of storms? What exactly? Prof. Devoy is hiding behind vague statements and doesn’t provide a single measure. He is just saying that storms are different. Scientifically his comments are a dustbin overflowing with rubbish.

He also claims sea level near Dublin is accelerating, claiming that “in the past decade, a regional rise of 2mm-3mm has been recorded by satellite stations and tidal gauges.”

We don’t know if Prof Devoy and the Irish Examiner are oblivious to history, or if they are maliciously trying to mislead the public. Why look only at the past decade? The available data for Dublin from the NOAA go back 80 years and shows very little overall sea level rise trend. Moreover, ten years is by far too short a time to infer a trend.

chart: Mean Sea Level Trend, 175-071 - Dublin, Ireland

Source: noaa.gov

Dublin Sea Level PSMSL

Up-to-date chart. Source: www.psmsl.org/stations/432.php

This leads us to wonder why Professor Devoy would make so many outlandish claims. We suppose it has something to do with money. The Irish Examiner quotes Devoy at the end of the article:

He called for further investment in weather monitoring in this country so that scientists can better chart patterns.”

I think the weather is monitored just fine in Ireland with all the satellite and weather station data constantly being collected. What we need are scientists who are not too lazy to go back more than 10 years.

UPDATE: Ed Caryl has provided a link with an updated chart, now posted above. It appears that Professor Devoy’s Dublin sudden sea level rise came in a single year: 2001. In 2001, the gauge changed hands. More research on this could be most interesting.

 

German Scientists: NOAA 2013 Hurricane Prediction Completely Missed The Barn…Not A Single Major Hurricane!

News of the NOAA’s miserable, failed 2013 hurricane prediction performance has spread to Europe.

Dr. Sebastian Lüning’s and Prof Fritz Vahrenholt’s Die kalte Sonne site took a look at the results. They compare the official NOAA prognoses from

May 23, 2013:

NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season – Era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes continues

For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).”

to the NOAA press release from November 25 November 2013:

NOAA: Slow Atlantic hurricane season coming to a close: No major hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin – first time since 1994

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on Saturday, Nov. 30, had the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982, thanks in large part to persistent, unfavorable atmospheric conditions over the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical Atlantic Ocean. This year is expected to rank as the sixth-least-active Atlantic hurricane season since 1950, in terms of the collective strength and duration of named storms and hurricanes. […] Thirteen named storms formed in the Atlantic basin this year. Two, Ingrid and Humberto, became hurricanes, but neither became major hurricanes. Although the number of named storms was above the average of 12, the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes were well below their averages of six and three, respectively. Major hurricanes are categories 3 and above.”

Scientists Vahrenholt’s and Lüning’s conclusion:

This year’s failed prognoses show just how difficult forecasts still can be. In regards to these prognoses, forecasts for an entire century into the future are even more questionable. While annual forecasts at least can be checked and compared to the actual development, this is certainly not possible for prognoses up to the year 2100. The followers of the climate catastrophe theory gleefully exploit this. Activists scientists such as Stefan Rahmstorf or Mojib Latif would be well-advised to be more careful with their argumentation and to be more clear about the huge uncertainties.”

Please note that Lüning and Vahrenholt are not being overly critical of the NOAA, but simply just want to point out that climate scientists shouldn’t be so cocky about their predictions – especially those dealing with the future, let alone 100 years out.

 

Also Spiegel: Higher Storm Frequency Only In Models…Observations Show “No Increase In Storms In Last 150 Years”!

Science journalist Axel Bojanowski of Spiegel comments on winter storm “Xaver” that pounded the north German coast yesterday, and on North Sea storms in general.

Landscap

No frequency increase in North Sea storms in 150 years. Photo by a U.S. Army helicopter, Netherlands flood 1953. Public domain photo.

So are North Sea storms getting worse? Bojanowski (my emphasis):

Measurements of air pressure and wind since the middle of the 19th century show no increase in storms in the North Sea. The region over the last years has even been low with respect to wind. Although the year-to-year fluctuations are high, a trend in storm frequency is not detectable by scientists.”

The high frequency, Bojanowski writes, is only found in model projections. He writes:

For the future, climate models foresee a light increase in winter storms over the course of the century. The calculations, however, are in dispute.”

But don’t take the word of a Speigel science journalist. Also read what the German Weather Service says in my last post.

 

In The Models Only! Leading German Experts Find “No Statistical Increase In Storm Frequency Or Intensity”

Now that North Sea storm “Xaver” is on its way out and the media hype begins to die down, the question of whether the storm was due to climate change is making the rounds. When Yolanda struck the Philippines early last month, the IPCC momentarily forgot its own science and hysterically blamed man-made CO2 for the catastrophe.

Xaver

Xaver was just a normal storm, German warmist experts concede. (Photo by Beeston, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported). See here.

Yesterday as Xaver raged, Germany’s DWD Weather Service DPA news agency reported on findings specifically regarding the relationship between climate change and storm frequency and intensity. The DPA writes:

Even with the two storms ‘Christian’ and ‘Xaver’ over Germany this fall, experts see no sign of climate change from them. ‘What we are experiencing are single events’, emphasizes Gerhard Lux, meteorologist at the German Weather Service in Offenbach on Thursday. ‘Over the last 100 years there have always been small waves of more or fewer storms in Germany.’ Also around 1990 and 1999 there were phases with relatively more frequent storms.”

Few major media outlets have bothered to deliver these non-trivial, non-alarmist findings to the public. Why aren’t we surprised?

Higher frequency and intensity found only in model projections

The DPA then explains in its piece that North Atlantic storms are brewed especially when cold polar air masses clash against warm ones from the south. The DPA adds, quoting Lux:

‘For Germany we cannot detect any statistical increased in storm frequency.’ The same applies for storm intensity.”

The über-alarmist Potsdam Institute for climate Impact Research (PIK) models beg to differ, but the DWD statistics and observations are clear on that: Higher frequency and intensity exist only in the model projections, and not in reality.

IPCC scientist affirms one or two storms “not a trend”

Unexpectedly, German IPCC climate scientist Mojib Latif, ever so eager to grab the media spotlight, displayed an unusual level sobriety in response to yesterday’s storm. At Die Welt here he called storm Xaver “a normal autumn storm“:

Indeed we have had two violent storms in a short time, but we cannot discern any trend from that.”

That’s a flabbergasting admission from a leading proponent of the man-made global warming hypothesis. Perhaps Latif has come to realize the foolishness of his earlier claims and that the media attention isn’t worth it.