Good News: 2022 Hurricane Season Mild. Bad News: Pressure Pattern Threatens Europe With Hell Winter

First the good news (and then the bad news below)

This year’s hurricane season has been unusually quiet. The USA has gotten off easy so far in terms of landfalls and damage, thus once again contradicting all the doomsday scenarios from the climate alarmists.

Mid September is usually the peak of hurricane activity. But right now it’s quiet and there are no threats to the US mainland – for the time being. Here’s the latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):

Another one goes out to sea. Image cropped from the NHC.

Currently only hurricane Fiona is active in the Atlantic, and it is projected to go out to sea hundreds of miles away from the east coast and fizzle out. It’s been a quiet season.

According to Eric Berger at here:

Everyone from the US agency devoted to studying weather, oceans, and the atmosphere—the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration—to the most highly regarded hurricane professionals predicted a season with above-normal to well above-normal activity.

For example, NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicted a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season…”

Even with today’s super powerful computers and sophisticated models, accurate seasonal predictions are still proving elusive. This should tell us that climate models looking decades into future remain nothing but high-tech, wild-ass guesses. here sums up the state of seasonal hurricane forecasting:

Seasonal forecasting is still a developing science. While it is typically more right than wrong, predicting specific weather patterns such as hurricanes months in advance is far from an established science.”

Now the bad news: 2022 hurricane season “not over by a long shot”

Concerning the remainder of the 2022 season, veteran meteorologist Joes Bastardi says at yesterday’s Saturday Summary video that there are signs out there things are going to start cooking over the next 15 days: “It’s a late starting season. It’s not over by a long shot.”

Potential killer winter on top of acute energy crisis

On another subject, some forecasters have been projecting a milder than normal winter for Europe, which would be welcome with a red carpet due to the continent’s acute energy crisis.

However, Joe notes there are signs this may not be the case. That would mean the coming winter could become – in the current dire energy situation – the Mother of Nightmares: a bitter cold winter with energy outages. In the event of blackouts, which many experts warn have a high chance of occurring, Europe would then be facing a humanitarian and economic crisis on a scale not seen in a very long time.

“Look at what the surface maps are showing,” Bastardi says. “When you have high pressure over Greenland and Iceland, and low pressure over Spain like that, folks, that is an ugly looking situation for the winter. That is similar to 2010/11.”

Normally a hard winter would be no problem for Europe in normal times, but times are far from normal nowadays as ideological Green New Deal politicians have done a great job at wrecking the continent’s energy supply system and so leaving tens of millions of people extremely vulnerable.

Europeans need to start preparing for an autumn and/or winter blackout. Note that a blackout means not only the power goes out, but so do the heat, lights, communication, Internet and potentially the water supply along with it – for days! Don’t wait and pretend it can’t happen. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

15 responses to “Good News: 2022 Hurricane Season Mild. Bad News: Pressure Pattern Threatens Europe With Hell Winter”

  1. Yonason

    “Another one goes out to sea.” – under NOAA’s forecast track of Fiona

    Yes, but as Joe Bastardi observes, each subsequent storm gets a bit further westward than the last, implying that the next may make landfall.

    He also says there that the season probably isn’t over yet, although contrary to what the arstecnica article claims – ”…the most highly regarded hurricane professionals (some over paid climate activists) predicted a season with above-normal to well above-normal activity,” the forecast I have does not call for above normal activity.
    E.g., the same activity as or lower than the past two years is expected. (bottom of page) And so far, that’s holding up nicely.

    But just because there probably won’t be many more storms, doesn’t mean that one of them won’t be dangerous. What I hear Bastardi saying is just that landfall on the US East Coast can’t be ruled out yet (see link to weather bell, above), not that it will soon be worse than ever, as the arse technocrat Eric Berger seems to be saying (pushing the fear porn).

    Last word … Once again, Pierre nails it with “ This should tell us that climate models looking decades into future remain nothing but high-tech, wild-ass guesses.”

  2. John Hultquist

    It appears Bermuda is in the path of the right quadrant of Fiona, on Thursday evening. Even with some decrease of winds, now expected to be serious, this will have a major impact. Four days away, so could change. Two models show Fiona taking a more eastward tack.
    Then it is headed toward Newfoundland.

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  6. Russell Seitz

    Good to see you have sense enough to believe in the predictive power of objective models when you are not paid to do otherwise.

    1. Yonason

      If by “objective model” you mean a model that’s being constantly updated (corrected) with real-world data, and so can’t help but be right most of the time, [like the dog that “leads” by constantly looking behind itself to be sure it’s “leading” you in the direction you’re going], then yes, it does have nearly optimal “predictive power.”

  7. Ireneusz Palmowski

    Hurricane Fiona enters over the Dominican Republic.
    A visible eye of the hurricane on the east coast of the Dominican Republic.

  8. AC Osborn

    Fiona is not much of a “Hurricane” with it’s very low wind speeds, below 100Kmh and an air pressure of 990hPa.

  9. drumphish

    Putin’s insouciance and lack of compassion doesn’t bode well, when you refuse to see eye-to-eye, no communication, you have to prepare accordingly.

    The Non-Aggression Principle is discarded. An odious situation for sure. When you harsh the mellow, the comfort zone is afflicted. The special military operation goes front and center.

    It is a complete waste of resources, everybody loses, there are no winners.

    “You know that peace can only be won when you’re blowin’ ’em all to kingdom come.” – Country Joe MacDonald, Fixin’ to Die Rag

    At ventusky dot com, the temperatures in the north of Greenland are minus 19 degrees Fahrenheit today.

    It has been a warm spell lately with overnight temps in the low 50’s and high 40’s. Daytime highs are above 80 degrees.

    Good for the tomatoes.

    Summer season is over, time to prepare for winter, become a snowbird and stay warm in Arizona. In 1950, the population of Phoenix was 248,000, it is now over six million. People migrate to warmer climates, cold drives them away from the northern tier states.

    I’ll have to stick around, I’ve got a lot to learn.

    The geese and sandhill cranes are flying south, the migration is here.

    Hope to see some whooping cranes migrating with the sandhills to warmer climes.

    October is a gamble, it can snow early or the warmer temps from the south can take hold.

    Winter is tolerable when you can stay warm, not so if there are cold spells that have temps below zero Fahrenheit. Once the temperatures are at 10 degrees Fahrenheit for daytime winter season highs, it is cold.

    Last year’s drought conditions ended in late April with heavy snowfall over a large area, then rainfall in June helped the crops immensely. The wheat crop is at record yields.

    The potatoes have a good yield too. Commercial crop potatoes have a yield of 30,000 pounds per acre under ideal growing conditions.

    There are no problems, only opportunities for solutions.

  10. Richard Greene

    Another climate prediction bites the dust

  11. Yonason

    Another observation Joe Bastardi made was that as storms strengthen they can go westward, despite conditions that would force weaker ones eastward. The revised path for the now strengthened Fiona appears to confirm that.

    An excellent link some may not have.

  12. Allan MacRae

    I agree with this forecast – energy shortages and a cold winter – told you so 20 years ago – details at:
    By Allan MacRae, 28July2022
    We predicted it in 2002 and 2013 – it was all terribly costly – in dollars and lives – and all entirely avoidable.
    A willful squandering of the lives of innocents.
    Crimes against humanity.

    Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., Calgary

  13. Christian Freuer

    @ bad news: I’m not sure whether a current pattern correctly described by Joe Bastardi will last during the coming winter as well. However, for statistical reasons I agree with his prediction.

  14. Yonason

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