The June SEARCH report of September sea ice outlook here shows the predictions of 16 research institutes for 2010:
According to the report:
A quick calculation (leaving out the outliers of 3.2 million in 2009 and 1.0 million in 2010) shows an average prediction of 4.72 in June 2009, and 5.05 million this year.
On average their predictions for 2010 are 300,000 km² more than last year’s average prediction. This is probably due to the embarassment they had to endure last year, when ice melt was far less than all the institutes had predicted. Last year sea ice area bottomed out at 5.4 million km², see below:
As you can see from the above chart, they all fell short. This year they probably thought twice about making headline-grabbing claims like they did last year.
Recent Comments