Scientists often say that if you want to see the climate change signal, then look at the poles, especially the Arctic. How often have we seen the following red-coloured graphic, or similar, and thought: Oh my God!
Well don’t panic. Even with all the “hottest-ever-first-6 months” in 2010 belly-aching, temperatures are about to take a dive. I’m not talking about because of fall and winter are approaching, I’m talking temperature anomalies over the winter. They are projected to be far below normal.
The NOAA models predict a major cooling for the Arctic this coming winter. Indeed they show a significant cooling globally. These models have been converging on an Arctic deep freeze for a few weeks now. Already the mercury north of 80° latitude has taken a dip back down to the freezing point, see DMI chart:
Now lets look at the NOAA Arctic seasonal forecast for the period Aug/Sep/Oct 2010:
In the above chart, you can see that the Arctic above Scandinavia, Russia, Siberia has cooled to a slight negative anomaly. The Canadian Arctic is still on the warm side. But almost everything above the 80°N line is blue, meaning colder than normal.
Now take a look at the next NOAA graphic which shows the global temperature anomalies for the period Jan/Feb/Mar 2011 – the dead of winter (entire NOAA graphic series here):
Look at all the deep blue up in the Arctic indicating well below normal temperatures! Some readers may say: “Well, it’s only 1 or 2°C below normal, what’s the big deal?” It is a big deal. Today warmists are screeching about global temperature anomalies of +0.5°C. So 2.0°C in the Arctic is huge. The Pacific and the Antarctic coast are also frigid.
Keep in mind this this post was written just by looking at the leading Climatic Indicators I have listed on my homepage. Anyone can go there and take a look at the charts. The data are there, take a look at them yourself and draw your own conclusions. Do your own thinking.
How long will the cold last? That depends on the developing La Nina. Again the big climate institutes point to a good-sized La Nina.
So, to summarise, expect Arctic sea ice to get pretty low this year, and to hear lots of headlines about it, but then watch the ice recover next year. Joe Bastardi thinks it could reach near record highs. This of course depends on how reliable the NOAA seasonal forecasts are.